How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)

[anonymous-user]

Tuna said:

All irrelevant. A second referendum - for any reason, or with any options on the paper - will end all negotiations with the EU.

The whole point of Boris' showmanship at the moment is a chance (however big or small you many think it to be) that the EU will compromise when faced with someone actually playing hard ball. It is the only game in town if we are to 'fix' the WA.

And a reminder - we are just discussing the conditions under which we enter the next phase of the negotiations. Whatever we agree is an interim position, so this is really a test of whether we're prepared to negotiate in all seriousness, or if we don't have the confidence to even do that. If it proves that we don't, this country is in deeper trouble than the point something of a percent difference a no deal brexit would cause to GDP.

Please stop reacting and start reading.

I am not saying there is going to be, should be, or will be a second referendum.

This has been raised solely in conjunction with the prospect of a further extension.

To arrive at that point negotiations would de facto have ceased and the vote would be as to which option to pursue.

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 19th August 10:55

[Mrr T]

confused_buyer said:

Mrr T said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/p...

Does this mean EU citizens will have to fill in a landing card on entering the UK except in Ireland where there will be no border. Now I know the boxes are tiny to fill in but that not exactly tough.

Showboating I rather expect.

I thought we'd done away with landing cards for everyone?

You are correct I did not realise.

So just showboating.

[philv]

banjowilly said:

Tuna said:

The whole point of Boris' showmanship at the moment is a chance (however big or small you many think it to be) that the EU will compromise when faced with someone actually playing hard ball. It is the only game in town if we are to 'fix' the WA.

That is a leap of faith not supported by news coming from Germany over the weekend.

Since they ate playing hardball what news would one expect from Germany?

[Taylor James]

I'm saying there won't be a second referendum this year, that we will be out on 31st October with a GE shortly afterwards in which Boris will get a big majority.

I don't like to hedge my bets.

[John145]

Brooking10 said:

Please stop reacting and start reading.

I am not saying there is going to be, should be, or will be a second referendum.

WTF are you saying then?

[crankedup]

steveT350C said:

golf_addict said:

The fact that the EU are more concerned about politics than economics is exactly why we should be leaving.

The fact we might not be well prepared to leave with no deal is directly due to 3 years of Remainers in control, seeking to prevent appropriate plans to be put in place.

Exactly, however not only are the E.U. more concerned with politics than economics, their politics also trump populations. They don’t give a monkeys over consequences not reopening the WA wether that’s people in Germany, France or any other Member of the club.

[anonymous-user]

John145 said:

Brooking10 said:

Please stop reacting and start reading.

I am not saying there is going to be, should be, or will be a second referendum.

WTF are you saying then?

If you read it properly you would see.

It’s not very difficult.

The initial point was in relation to the possibility of a further extension.

I am quite confident that we will not be offered a further extension without there being a certainty of outcome attached to it. That certainty would be delivered via a ref to determine the manner of exit.

We won’t be offered, or seeking, a further extension just for the sake of it.

Why are you so ranty ?

[crankedup]

Brooking10 said:

John145 said:

Brooking10 said:

Please stop reacting and start reading.

I am not saying there is going to be, should be, or will be a second referendum.

WTF are you saying then?

If you read it properly you would see.

It’s not very difficult.

The initial point was in relation to the possibility of a further extension.

I am quite confident that we will not be offered a further extension without there being a certainty of outcome attached to it. That certainty would be delivered via a ref to determine the manner of exit.

We won’t be offered, or seeking, a further extension just for the sake of it.

Why are you so ranty ?

What manner of exit ? we only have one on the table, leave no deal.

[golf_addict]

DeepEnd said:

I’m not sure Boris could keep it off the table, or even if he’ll be PM.

Another ref will only be possible with Clark like take over - which looks unlikely, or Boris being forced through legislation to have one.

I feels like there has been a shift in parliament panic levels - previously it felt like the votes in the house were waiting for the right time for a 2nd vote and it was too early for a majority. Now if that vote was held again there maybe more of a “st we have to do this now or Boris will make an even bigger mess and he has no plan”. The previous votes were with a May deal backdrop, now it is (allegedly) a no deal backdrop. Quite different.

We need a bit more sovereignty over the way forward, and not just leave it to Boris and his counter-TBP cabinet with Priti “shut the door to EU foreigners on 1st Nov unless they are on £35k” Patel.

Edited as NHS maybe exempt from the £35k. Still a stty hypocritical foreigner not welcome policy.

Edited by DeepEnd on Monday 19th August 10:15

So you’ve moved on from one lie and simply introduced a different lie instead?

[Tuna]

Brooking10 said:

Tuna said:

All irrelevant. A second referendum - for any reason, or with any options on the paper - will end all negotiations with the EU.

The whole point of Boris' showmanship at the moment is a chance (however big or small you many think it to be) that the EU will compromise when faced with someone actually playing hard ball. It is the only game in town if we are to 'fix' the WA.

And a reminder - we are just discussing the conditions under which we enter the next phase of the negotiations. Whatever we agree is an interim position, so this is really a test of whether we're prepared to negotiate in all seriousness, or if we don't have the confidence to even do that. If it proves that we don't, this country is in deeper trouble than the point something of a percent difference a no deal brexit would cause to GDP.

Please stop reacting and start reading.

I am not saying there is going to be, should be, or will be a second referendum.

This has been raised solely in conjunction with the prospect of a further extension.

To arrive at that point negotiations would de facto have ceased and the vote would be as to which option to pursue.

I am reading, I understand what you're saying, but the point has to be made about what a second referendum 'represents' - and therefore what options could even be on a ballot. The point being that a further extension (with or without a second referendum) achieves absolutely nothing and should be regarded as a 'thing to be avoided'.

I know you're working hard at being neutral on this, but there is no benefit to being "open minded" about whether there is going to be, should be, or will be a second referendum. There really, really shouldn't. It perpetuates the damage to our economy that 'limbo' is inflicting, it puts the EU in an even stronger position, and it guts what little remaining authority our Government ever had.

[anonymous-user]

crankedup said:

Brooking10 said:

John145 said:

Brooking10 said:

Please stop reacting and start reading.

I am not saying there is going to be, should be, or will be a second referendum.

WTF are you saying then?

If you read it properly you would see.

It’s not very difficult.

The initial point was in relation to the possibility of a further extension.

I am quite confident that we will not be offered a further extension without there being a certainty of outcome attached to it. That certainty would be delivered via a ref to determine the manner of exit.

We won’t be offered, or seeking, a further extension just for the sake of it.

Why are you so ranty ?

What manner of exit ? we only have one on the table, leave no deal.

Which is sub-optimal as acknowledged by Boris and Gove and indeed most other people.

[golf_addict]

Brooking10 said:

Which is sub-optimal as acknowledged by Boris and Gove and indeed most other people.

‘No deal’ is sub-optimal, but much better than May’s deal which is the only other thing on the table.

Of course ‘no deal’ is highly misleading, given the agreements that are already in place, particularly around financial services.

[Tuna]

Brooking10 said:

Which is sub-optimal as acknowledged by Boris and Gove and indeed most other people.

And an extension doesn't introduce any new option, but cements our position whilst we 'think about it'.

[anonymous-user]

Tuna said:

Brooking10 said:

Tuna said:

All irrelevant. A second referendum - for any reason, or with any options on the paper - will end all negotiations with the EU.

The whole point of Boris' showmanship at the moment is a chance (however big or small you many think it to be) that the EU will compromise when faced with someone actually playing hard ball. It is the only game in town if we are to 'fix' the WA.

And a reminder - we are just discussing the conditions under which we enter the next phase of the negotiations. Whatever we agree is an interim position, so this is really a test of whether we're prepared to negotiate in all seriousness, or if we don't have the confidence to even do that. If it proves that we don't, this country is in deeper trouble than the point something of a percent difference a no deal brexit would cause to GDP.

Please stop reacting and start reading.

I am not saying there is going to be, should be, or will be a second referendum.

This has been raised solely in conjunction with the prospect of a further extension.

To arrive at that point negotiations would de facto have ceased and the vote would be as to which option to pursue.

I am reading, I understand what you're saying, but the point has to be made about what a second referendum 'represents' - and therefore what options could even be on a ballot. The point being that a further extension (with or without a second referendum) achieves absolutely nothing and should be regarded as a 'thing to be avoided'.

I know you're working hard at being neutral on this, but there is no benefit to being "open minded" about whether there is going to be, should be, or will be a second referendum. There really, really shouldn't. It perpetuates the damage to our economy that 'limbo' is inflicting, it puts the EU in an even stronger position, and it guts what little remaining authority our Government ever had.

I’m not advocating the +/- of any second vote,

What I am saying is that we won’t be given an extension without certainty of outcome.

I personally think a further extension is highly unlikely and so we hurtle inevitably towards the, at least short term, mayhem of no deal.

I’m certainly not working hard at anything !

[anonymous-user]

Tuna said:

Brooking10 said:

Which is sub-optimal as acknowledged by Boris and Gove and indeed most other people.

And an extension doesn't introduce any new option, but cements our position whilst we 'think about it'.

Which is exactly why I said wouldn’t be acceptable and why it wouldn’t be granted without the expectation of certainty of outcome.............

[crankedup]

Brooking10 said:

crankedup said:

Brooking10 said:

John145 said:

Brooking10 said:

Please stop reacting and start reading.

I am not saying there is going to be, should be, or will be a second referendum.

WTF are you saying then?

If you read it properly you would see.

It’s not very difficult.

The initial point was in relation to the possibility of a further extension.

I am quite confident that we will not be offered a further extension without there being a certainty of outcome attached to it. That certainty would be delivered via a ref to determine the manner of exit.

We won’t be offered, or seeking, a further extension just for the sake of it.

Why are you so ranty ?

What manner of exit ? we only have one on the table, leave no deal.

Which is sub-optimal as acknowledged by Boris and Gove and indeed most other people.

Yes we do know that, it’s just that your previous posts seemed to be pointing to alternatives. I was asking what alternatives are available in your opinion? The only two issues seem to be leave no deal or revoke. Revoke at this stage is unthinkable for the Government.

[Murph7355]

Brooking10 said:

If you read it properly you would see.

...

I am quite confident that we will not be offered a further extension without there being a certainty of outcome attached to it. That certainty would be delivered via a ref to determine the manner of exit....

I'm far less confident than you that ANY referendum at the moment would lead to "certainty". Any outcome will be spun.

(As for your original post on these lines...maybe take a check on how many people you've had to use your "read it properly" line to Now you've explained it I more or less get it...but your original post on the topic was poorly worded, especially when you consider the context of your general views on Brexit and, importantly, the posts from other remain advocates on second votes I know it's not fair tarring people with brushes...but it happens).

[Robertj21a]

crankedup said:

Yes we do know that, it’s just that your previous posts seemed to be pointing to alternatives. I was asking what alternatives are available in your opinion? The only two issues seem to be leave no deal or revoke. Revoke at this stage is unthinkable for the Government.

.......and quite right too !

We've said that we may have to leave without a deal and many people, and businesses, will prefer that to ongoing uncertainty.

The only thing missing now is to just get on with it. The sooner we get out of the EU, the sooner we can start afresh.

[anonymous-user]

crankedup said:

Yes we do know that, it’s just that your previous posts seemed to be pointing to alternatives. I was asking what alternatives are available in your opinion? The only two issues seem to be leave no deal or revoke. Revoke at this stage is unthinkable for the Government.

In Boris we trust .....well when I say Boris I mean Michael.... or Dominic.

The next few weeks are pivotal as they look to pick apart the May Deal and build a revised version for consideration.

Hypothetical ref/extension or not that is apparently the priority.

[ben5575]

crankedup said:

Yes we do know that, it’s just that your previous posts seemed to be pointing to alternatives. I was asking what alternatives are available in your opinion? The only two issues seem to be leave no deal or revoke. Revoke at this stage is unthinkable for the Government.

Revoke is unthinkable for the government as it currently stands. So is the WA.

Both revoke and the WA could exist with a different government (GE) or a 2nd ref.

So the certainty to the EU around any extension, would be a GE or a 2nd ref or indeed a GE leading to 2nd ref. It doesn't provide certainty of outcome, it provides certainty that there will be an outcome.

Or alternatively the EU take the 'certainty' of No Deal or the certainty of an amended WA. The latter would get through Parliament as Boris is playing them as much as he is playing the EU (he's serious about no deal if parliament doesn't take the EU olive branch).