How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)
Discussion
Murph7355 said:
I'm far less confident than you that ANY referendum at the moment would lead to "certainty". Any outcome will be spun.
(As for your original post on these lines...maybe take a check on how many people you've had to use your "read it properly" line to
Now you've explained it I more or less get it...but your original post on the topic was poorly worded, especially when you consider the context of your general views on Brexit and, importantly, the posts from other remain advocates on second votes 
I know it's not fair tarring people with brushes...but it happens).
What can I say ?(As for your original post on these lines...maybe take a check on how many people you've had to use your "read it properly" line to
Now you've explained it I more or less get it...but your original post on the topic was poorly worded, especially when you consider the context of your general views on Brexit and, importantly, the posts from other remain advocates on second votes I know it's not fair tarring people with brushes...but it happens).Most hardcore Brexiteers aren’t that bright
You can have your brush back now
Reality is most people have hard wired views which don’t let them think laterally and certain words which have become very emotive send them down a rabbit hole.
My “general views on Brexit” are focussed on the folly of no deal by the way, I’m hoping that’s clear to you as one of the less ranty correspondents.
Robertj21a said:
.......and quite right too !
We've said that we may have to leave without a deal and many people, and businesses, will prefer that to ongoing uncertainty.
The only thing missing now is to just get on with it. The sooner we get out of the EU, the sooner we can start afresh.
I'm not sure if we can start afresh. We've said that we may have to leave without a deal and many people, and businesses, will prefer that to ongoing uncertainty.
The only thing missing now is to just get on with it. The sooner we get out of the EU, the sooner we can start afresh.
If we do a no deal 'divorce' there are still trading issues that need resolved. EU and UK working on WTO tariffs isn't sustainable in the long term so we'll need to come back to the table. It would be like a couple divorcing and using the children (Tariffs) to poke each other in the eye.
It doesn't give business any long term certainty at all. All it does is say we have gone from A to B but we don't know exactly what B will look like and how long we'll be there, but we'll possibly make our way back to the vicinity of A at some point in the future. The uncertainty will remain (excuse the pun)
Brooking10 said:
crankedup said:
Yes we do know that, it’s just that your previous posts seemed to be pointing to alternatives. I was asking what alternatives are available in your opinion? The only two issues seem to be leave no deal or revoke. Revoke at this stage is unthinkable for the Government.
In Boris we trust .....well when I say Boris I mean Michael.... or Dominic. The next few weeks are pivotal as they look to pick apart the May Deal and build a revised version for consideration.
Hypothetical ref/extension or not that is apparently the priority.
or revoke are the only issues left available for the Government. Revoke is patently obvious that it’s simply not an option, which leaves no deal, unless the E.U. reopen the negotiations.
ben5575 said:
Revoke is unthinkable for the government as it currently stands. So is the WA.
Both revoke and the WA could exist with a different government (GE) or a 2nd ref.
So the certainty to the EU around any extension, would be a GE or a 2nd ref or indeed a GE leading to 2nd ref. It doesn't provide certainty of outcome, it provides certainty that there will be an outcome.
Or alternatively the EU take the 'certainty' of No Deal or the certainty of an amended WA. The latter would get through Parliament as Boris is playing them as much as he is playing the EU (he's serious about no deal if parliament doesn't take the EU olive branch).
The ball is in the court of the E.U. that is the only fact at the moment. After three years I believe the U.K. has ran out of track, the buffers are the E.U. and we are hurtling toward smashing through them. I believe the U.K. electorate have also reached the end of the line, just get us out and let’s get on with the new political and trading environment.Both revoke and the WA could exist with a different government (GE) or a 2nd ref.
So the certainty to the EU around any extension, would be a GE or a 2nd ref or indeed a GE leading to 2nd ref. It doesn't provide certainty of outcome, it provides certainty that there will be an outcome.
Or alternatively the EU take the 'certainty' of No Deal or the certainty of an amended WA. The latter would get through Parliament as Boris is playing them as much as he is playing the EU (he's serious about no deal if parliament doesn't take the EU olive branch).
crankedup said:
Brooking10 said:
crankedup said:
Yes we do know that, it’s just that your previous posts seemed to be pointing to alternatives. I was asking what alternatives are available in your opinion? The only two issues seem to be leave no deal or revoke. Revoke at this stage is unthinkable for the Government.
In Boris we trust .....well when I say Boris I mean Michael.... or Dominic. The next few weeks are pivotal as they look to pick apart the May Deal and build a revised version for consideration.
Hypothetical ref/extension or not that is apparently the priority.
or revoke are the only issues left available for the Government. Revoke is patently obvious that it’s simply not an option, which leaves no deal, unless the E.U. reopen the negotiations.
I agree that revoke isn’t an option for this government.
This government is making it clear that in an ideal world it would want a negotiated deal.
Despite their rhetoric such an agreement would suit the EU too,
There will be further negotiations over the coming weeks either public or private,
At the very least it is in Boris’ interests to at least look like he tried and better yet if he can secure some concessions,
Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 19th August 12:14
Brooking10 said:
Murph7355 said:
I'm far less confident than you that ANY referendum at the moment would lead to "certainty". Any outcome will be spun.
(As for your original post on these lines...maybe take a check on how many people you've had to use your "read it properly" line to Now you've explained it I more or less get it...but your original post on the topic was poorly worded, especially when you consider the context of your general views on Brexit and, importantly, the posts from other remain advocates on second votes I know it's not fair tarring people with brushes...but it happens).
What can I say ?(As for your original post on these lines...maybe take a check on how many people you've had to use your "read it properly" line to
Now you've explained it I more or less get it...but your original post on the topic was poorly worded, especially when you consider the context of your general views on Brexit and, importantly, the posts from other remain advocates on second votes I know it's not fair tarring people with brushes...but it happens).Most hardcore Brexiteers aren’t that bright
You can have your brush back now
Reality is most people have hard wired views which don’t let them think laterally and certain words which have become very emotive send them down a rabbit hole.
My “general views on Brexit” are focussed on the folly of no deal by the way, I’m hoping that’s clear to you as one of the less ranty correspondents.
If they decline then we have run out of options and either go back with a begging bowl to remain in the club or walk away. Begging bowl is unthinkable.
soupdragon1 said:
I'm not sure if we can start afresh.
If we do a no deal 'divorce' there are still trading issues that need resolved. EU and UK working on WTO tariffs isn't sustainable in the long term so we'll need to come back to the table. It would be like a couple divorcing and using the children (Tariffs) to poke each other in the eye.
It doesn't give business any long term certainty at all. All it does is say we have gone from A to B but we don't know exactly what B will look like and how long we'll be there, but we'll possibly make our way back to the vicinity of A at some point in the future. The uncertainty will remain (excuse the pun)
Your analogy works well. Both parties in the divorce will have to sort out a settlement at some point.If we do a no deal 'divorce' there are still trading issues that need resolved. EU and UK working on WTO tariffs isn't sustainable in the long term so we'll need to come back to the table. It would be like a couple divorcing and using the children (Tariffs) to poke each other in the eye.
It doesn't give business any long term certainty at all. All it does is say we have gone from A to B but we don't know exactly what B will look like and how long we'll be there, but we'll possibly make our way back to the vicinity of A at some point in the future. The uncertainty will remain (excuse the pun)
It is worth pointing out that, deal or no deal, the uncertainty will remain until the permanent relationship is resolved. The WA does nothing except delay the likely timing of the permanent relationship being sorted out.
Brooking10 said:
crankedup said:
Brooking10 said:
crankedup said:
Yes we do know that, it’s just that your previous posts seemed to be pointing to alternatives. I was asking what alternatives are available in your opinion? The only two issues seem to be leave no deal or revoke. Revoke at this stage is unthinkable for the Government.
In Boris we trust .....well when I say Boris I mean Michael.... or Dominic. The next few weeks are pivotal as they look to pick apart the May Deal and build a revised version for consideration.
Hypothetical ref/extension or not that is apparently the priority.
or revoke are the only issues left available for the Government. Revoke is patently obvious that it’s simply not an option, which leaves no deal, unless the E.U. reopen the negotiations.
I agree that revoke isn’t an option for this government.
This government is making it clear that in an ideal world it would want a negotiated deal.
Despite their rhetoric such an agreement would suit the EU too,
There will be further negotiations over the coming weeks either public or private,
At the very least it is in Boris’ interests to at least look like he tried and better her if he can secure some concessions,
Brooking10 said:
What can I say ?
Most hardcore Brexiteers aren’t that bright
You can have your brush back now
Reality is most people have hard wired views which don’t let them think laterally and certain words which have become very emotive send them down a rabbit hole.
My “general views on Brexit” are focussed on the folly of no deal by the way, I’m hoping that’s clear to you as one of the less ranty correspondents.
I suspect most "hardcore" anythings come across as/may not be that bright...blinkers do that to people Most hardcore Brexiteers aren’t that bright
You can have your brush back now
Reality is most people have hard wired views which don’t let them think laterally and certain words which have become very emotive send them down a rabbit hole.
My “general views on Brexit” are focussed on the folly of no deal by the way, I’m hoping that’s clear to you as one of the less ranty correspondents.
"Perceived" folly
As plenty have noted, proceedings can shine different lights on things. If a sensible deal were on offer/feasible then "no deal" would likely be folly. But in the absence of that, I guess it comes down to which folly one thinks the folliest ("no deal" or rescind or just keep banging heads against the wall) Anyway, your original post was more or less spot on. The only way a further extension will even be requested by the UK, let alone approved by the EU is if there is a 2nd vote or a GE in motion...the former of which is highly unlikely.
(Actually, there's one outside possibility...that the EU do actually agree to adjusting the WA but with insufficient time to get that process through by 31st Oct....much as Boris dismissed Hunt's position on this, I think it's still a possibility. A VERY time limited extension to dot i's and cross t's on a revised deal may yet happen. All the political nonsense aside it would make the most sense - the EU are insisting upon something (the backstop) that precludes agreement and that if they don't adjust they won't get anyway, hence not being able to cope without it is a fallacy (as all involved have said no harder border under any circumstances)).
philv said:
He call a GE before oct31st.
But it would take place after 31st.
Parliament closed 17 days before 31st.
Job done.
In theory yes but in practice I'd be amazed if a no deal Brexit was allowed to come to pass just because Parliament's suspended. Quite how it would be avoided from a process point of view I don't know but the reality is we have a House of Commons which is overwhelmingly against no deal and an EU which is against no deal; therefore, between them I think they'd find a way of stopping it happening just by default.....But it would take place after 31st.
Parliament closed 17 days before 31st.
Job done.
Groat said:
golf_addict said:
So you’ve moved on from one lie and simply introduced a different lie instead?
SPOTTED!! (and outed!)What's the obsession with lies, Sid?
Murph7355 said:
I suspect most "hardcore" anythings come across as/may not be that bright...blinkers do that to people
"Perceived" folly As plenty have noted, proceedings can shine different lights on things. If a sensible deal were on offer/feasible then "no deal" would likely be folly. But in the absence of that, I guess it comes down to which folly one thinks the folliest ("no deal" or rescind or just keep banging heads against the wall)
Anyway, your original post was more or less spot on. The only way a further extension will even be requested by the UK, let alone approved by the EU is if there is a 2nd vote or a GE in motion...the former of which is highly unlikely.
(Actually, there's one outside possibility...that the EU do actually agree to adjusting the WA but with insufficient time to get that process through by 31st Oct....much as Boris dismissed Hunt's position on this, I think it's still a possibility. A VERY time limited extension to dot i's and cross t's on a revised deal may yet happen. All the political nonsense aside it would make the most sense - the EU are insisting upon something (the backstop) that precludes agreement and that if they don't adjust they won't get anyway, hence not being able to cope without it is a fallacy (as all involved have said no harder border under any circumstances)).
I agree with your outside possibility view and think that despite his public protestations Boris would too."Perceived" folly
As plenty have noted, proceedings can shine different lights on things. If a sensible deal were on offer/feasible then "no deal" would likely be folly. But in the absence of that, I guess it comes down to which folly one thinks the folliest ("no deal" or rescind or just keep banging heads against the wall) Anyway, your original post was more or less spot on. The only way a further extension will even be requested by the UK, let alone approved by the EU is if there is a 2nd vote or a GE in motion...the former of which is highly unlikely.
(Actually, there's one outside possibility...that the EU do actually agree to adjusting the WA but with insufficient time to get that process through by 31st Oct....much as Boris dismissed Hunt's position on this, I think it's still a possibility. A VERY time limited extension to dot i's and cross t's on a revised deal may yet happen. All the political nonsense aside it would make the most sense - the EU are insisting upon something (the backstop) that precludes agreement and that if they don't adjust they won't get anyway, hence not being able to cope without it is a fallacy (as all involved have said no harder border under any circumstances)).
Brooking10 said:
Murph7355 said:
I'm far less confident than you that ANY referendum at the moment would lead to "certainty". Any outcome will be spun.
(As for your original post on these lines...maybe take a check on how many people you've had to use your "read it properly" line to Now you've explained it I more or less get it...but your original post on the topic was poorly worded, especially when you consider the context of your general views on Brexit and, importantly, the posts from other remain advocates on second votes I know it's not fair tarring people with brushes...but it happens).
What can I say ?(As for your original post on these lines...maybe take a check on how many people you've had to use your "read it properly" line to
Now you've explained it I more or less get it...but your original post on the topic was poorly worded, especially when you consider the context of your general views on Brexit and, importantly, the posts from other remain advocates on second votes I know it's not fair tarring people with brushes...but it happens).Most hardcore Brexiteers aren’t that bright
You can have your brush back now
Reality is most people have hard wired views which don’t let them think laterally and certain words which have become very emotive send them down a rabbit hole.
My “general views on Brexit” are focussed on the folly of no deal by the way, I’m hoping that’s clear to you as one of the less ranty correspondents.
Taylor James said:
Brooking10 said:
Murph7355 said:
I'm far less confident than you that ANY referendum at the moment would lead to "certainty". Any outcome will be spun.
(As for your original post on these lines...maybe take a check on how many people you've had to use your "read it properly" line to Now you've explained it I more or less get it...but your original post on the topic was poorly worded, especially when you consider the context of your general views on Brexit and, importantly, the posts from other remain advocates on second votes I know it's not fair tarring people with brushes...but it happens).
What can I say ?(As for your original post on these lines...maybe take a check on how many people you've had to use your "read it properly" line to
Now you've explained it I more or less get it...but your original post on the topic was poorly worded, especially when you consider the context of your general views on Brexit and, importantly, the posts from other remain advocates on second votes I know it's not fair tarring people with brushes...but it happens).Most hardcore Brexiteers aren’t that bright
You can have your brush back now
Reality is most people have hard wired views which don’t let them think laterally and certain words which have become very emotive send them down a rabbit hole.
My “general views on Brexit” are focussed on the folly of no deal by the way, I’m hoping that’s clear to you as one of the less ranty correspondents.
chow pan toon said:
Groat said:
golf_addict said:
So you’ve moved on from one lie and simply introduced a different lie instead?
SPOTTED!! (and outed!)What's the obsession with lies, Sid?
A few weeks ago there was one of his multiples I spotted on its first post!
JNW1 said:
In theory yes but in practice I'd be amazed if a no deal Brexit was allowed to come to pass just because Parliament's suspended. Quite how it would be avoided from a process point of view I don't know but the reality is we have a House of Commons which is overwhelmingly against no deal and an EU which is against no deal; therefore, between them I think they'd find a way of stopping it happening just by default.....
Possibly.But we need to get away from the narrative that this might happen now simply because Parliament is suspended for a GE or whatever.
This is happening because of the way the negotiations happened and how Parliament have reacted over the last 3yrs. This isn't BJ's problem per se. He's only doing what would be seen as logical in any other negotiation (if we cannot agree a deal then we should leave it and walk and come back to it later).
Parliament has failed all of us. And for the likes of Grieve and Swinson to think they have answers in the name of saving the country from itself is comedy gold.
golf_addict said:
DeepEnd said:
I’m not sure Boris could keep it off the table, or even if he’ll be PM.
Another ref will only be possible with Clark like take over - which looks unlikely, or Boris being forced through legislation to have one.
I feels like there has been a shift in parliament panic levels - previously it felt like the votes in the house were waiting for the right time for a 2nd vote and it was too early for a majority. Now if that vote was held again there maybe more of a “s
t we have to do this now or Boris will make an even bigger mess and he has no plan”. The previous votes were with a May deal backdrop, now it is (allegedly) a no deal backdrop. Quite different.
We need a bit more sovereignty over the way forward, and not just leave it to Boris and his counter-TBP cabinet with Priti “shut the door to EU foreigners on 1st Nov unless they are on £35k” Patel.
Edited as NHS maybe exempt from the £35k. Still a stty hypocritical foreigner not welcome policy.
So you’ve moved on from one lie and simply introduced a different lie instead?Another ref will only be possible with Clark like take over - which looks unlikely, or Boris being forced through legislation to have one.
I feels like there has been a shift in parliament panic levels - previously it felt like the votes in the house were waiting for the right time for a 2nd vote and it was too early for a majority. Now if that vote was held again there maybe more of a “s
t we have to do this now or Boris will make an even bigger mess and he has no plan”. The previous votes were with a May deal backdrop, now it is (allegedly) a no deal backdrop. Quite different. We need a bit more sovereignty over the way forward, and not just leave it to Boris and his counter-TBP cabinet with Priti “shut the door to EU foreigners on 1st Nov unless they are on £35k” Patel.
Edited as NHS maybe exempt from the £35k. Still a s
tty hypocritical foreigner not welcome policy.Edited by DeepEnd on Monday 19th August 10:15
I still think it’s a “foreign not welcome” policy - as if you don’t earn enough you literally are not welcome. What part of this is a lie.
I think it’s hypocritical as Priti’s parents are immigrants. I don’t actually know if their earnings would have been high enough but as they setup / ran a news agents / shop (I think), there is fair chance they would not have been eligible, unless under asylum perhaps. Either way I tend to think of immigrants we have welcomed to this country that are against free movement as somewhat hypocritical. That’s an opinion not a lie. Interestingly her dad stood for UKIP back in 2913 - failed to get elected.
In summary no lies then.
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