How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)

[TTwiggy]

NoNeed said:

leavers have a bigger majority than ever

You talk some crap

It's impossible to make that statement without running another referendum. Nobody knows who is in the majority.

[NoNeed]

TTwiggy said:

NoNeed said:

leavers have a bigger majority than ever

You talk some crap

It's impossible to make that statement without running another referendum. Nobody knows who is in the majority.

Funny how Elysium made a similar statement saying the opposite was true and you didn't say that to him and according to you he can't possibly know either.

[andymadmak]

biggles330d said:

"If Boris fails to leave one way or another by October the tories are done for, so i think a No deal brexit is still BETTER FOR THEM than missing another deadline".

The scary thing about this statement is the suggestion that it's not the best outcome of our country or our future that matters, but the survival of the conservative party.

Actually I think the best outcome for the Conservative party also happens to be the best outcome for the country at the moment. We have 3 choices. Leave No deal, Sign the WA and Leave or Remain.
Since the WA (in its current form) is already dead, that just leaves Leave No deal or Remain.
Unless, of course, there is a last minute tweak to the WA that is sufficient to get it through Parliament.

biggles330d said:

I read all the comments about rowing back on the referendum being leading to the destruction of democracy and confidence in our political system and think that's so wrong. Our politicians have already demonstrated adequately that the whole structure is unfit for purpose and ruling by referendum is a monumentally stupid thing to do.

With respect, you're taking that view because you want to Remain. (You could also argue that I disagree with you because I want to leave! ) However, the fundamental point is that, having given the choice to people (rightly or wrongly) it would be inconceivable to ignore the instruction given.

biggles330d said:

The irony being any referendum is nothing more than a process to seek a collective opinion. A referendum result doesn't create a legal obligation to deliver the outcome. That our main political parties so quickly pandered to this public opinion and cast it into manifesto promises despite it being pretty obvious none of them had much of a clue about how it was going to be possible is the killer blow for me in my respect for our democratic process.

Ah, the "i want to cast the referendum as a glorified opinion poll" approach. It wasn't. The Government made it very clear that the result would be acted upon. Parliament voted absolutely overwhelmingly, across parties (with some notable exceptions) to grant the referendum. You only think that it's a killer blow because you did not get the result you wanted.

biggles330d said:

I'd far rather someone say "ok people, yes we voted out of the EU but frankly we hadn't thought through what that meant, didn't expect it, never prepared for it and now we're in disarray as even three years on we don't appear to even have reached consensus in our own country what we want.

Consensus will never be possible. Remain has spent 3 years arguing with the actual principle of Brexit. Where do you think consensus is going to come from? May tried to fudge a middle ground BRINO and many would argue that that is the real reason why we are where we are now.

biggles330d said:

Let's for the sake of our best long term opportunity put things on pause and try to do this properly. Our country and economy deserve better than crashing out through nothing more than dogma".

But it isn't dogma. It's Brexit. Terms like 'crashing out' are emotive, but actually don't mean very much.
And even if you are genuine in your desire to plan things better, you still come up against an EU that currently says it's Mays WA or nowt.
If there is no change to the WA then it's No Deal. Johnson is trying to get the WA changed. Changes to the non binding PD are simply not going to cut it.

[Elysium]

NoNeed said:

TTwiggy said:

NoNeed said:

leavers have a bigger majority than ever

You talk some crap

It's impossible to make that statement without running another referendum. Nobody knows who is in the majority.

Funny how Elysium made a similar statement saying the opposite was true and you didn't say that to him and according to you he can't possibly know either.

That’s because he read my post properly. I said “leavers are afraid that they may no longer be in the majority”

As TTwiggy said, none us actually knows what the ‘will of the people’ is at this point.

[NoNeed]

Elysium said:

NoNeed said:

TTwiggy said:

NoNeed said:

leavers have a bigger majority than ever

You talk some crap

It's impossible to make that statement without running another referendum. Nobody knows who is in the majority.

Funny how Elysium made a similar statement saying the opposite was true and you didn't say that to him and according to you he can't possibly know either.

That’s because he read my post properly. I said “leavers are afraid that they may no longer be in the majority”

As TTwiggy said, none us actually knows what the ‘will of the people’ is at this point.

Leavers aren't though that is just a blatent made uo statement that has no bearing to reality.

[banjowilly]

Troubleatmill said:

Spoken like a true remainer.

You are convincing no-one.

And you speak for whom?

Only the shock troops of Brexit, massively over represented in here maintain the contradictions of Brexit as we wend ourselves towards October. No-deal Brexit is simultaneously no problem at all, and so bad that merely threatening it will make the EU do whatever we want.

Parliament is sovereign except when it won't do what we want, the backstop is totally unacceptable but won't be needed anyway because computers, Immigrants are both work shy freeloaders & steal our jobs.

Free trade is the future & we must leave all our free trade agreements to achieve it, Everyone knew what they were voting for except the Tory leadership candidates who couldn't agree on it.

The EU makes restrictive trade deals that are terrible because small countries block all their decisions but is also a fascist outfit that tramples on the sovereignty of its members. The EU is undemocratic & we shouldn't have to pay for all their elections.

All of these fallacies are advanced every day, so if you think October is the end of it, you are about to be badly disappointed. The minute we're out, the clamour to rejoin will begin. The privations widely predicted will only amplify the calls. Trade deals will be drawn out over years from a position of weakness. It will dominate politics for the next decade & push out health, education, transport, social care, all of it. Like the chap above said, I wonder what it is you think you've won?

[Engelberger]

crankedup said:

Entirely agree, although it seems that our Government has ordered the Civil Service to post haste
(turbocharged) with preparations for a no deal exit.

Well that is what they are SAYING is happening. The reality is very different based on my contacts. Perhaps you have some firm evidence?

What the lunatics don't seem to grasp is that they are digging their own grave. It is so obvious and yet they still bleat the lines.

Take for example the idiot above bleating about VAT and Corp Tax rates. He has a point, we are currently restricted. However, he fails to realise that we haven't even taken the options we have to make changes and have never had any logical reason to go outside of the boundaries we and the other EU member states agreed to.

If you have any intellectual honesty the first thing you would consider is what circumstances you would have to fall outside of the boundaries currently in place? The instant reaction of the idiots is "giving the finger" to our largest trading partner. How do you think that would work out? Others will consider the economic impact in revenue. They will understand that economically we would be in serious straits to rely on this lever of economics. They would understand that VAT rates for example need to be sustained and take time to filter through to the economy.

But no, you keep pressing on towards the cliff.

Most amusing. Why rational people are indulging some of you I just don't understand. Anyone taking even a slice of what politicians say is a fool who will end up being dissapointed.

[Elysium]

andymadmak said:

biggles330d said:

"If Boris fails to leave one way or another by October the tories are done for, so i think a No deal brexit is still BETTER FOR THEM than missing another deadline".

The scary thing about this statement is the suggestion that it's not the best outcome of our country or our future that matters, but the survival of the conservative party.

Actually I think the best outcome for the Conservative party also happens to be the best outcome for the country at the moment. We have 3 choices. Leave No deal, Sign the WA and Leave or Remain.
Since the WA (in its current form) is already dead, that just leaves Leave No deal or Remain.
Unless, of course, there is a last minute tweak to the WA that is sufficient to get it through Parliament.

so three choices then

andymadmak said:

biggles330d said:

I read all the comments about rowing back on the referendum being leading to the destruction of democracy and confidence in our political system and think that's so wrong. Our politicians have already demonstrated adequately that the whole structure is unfit for purpose and ruling by referendum is a monumentally stupid thing to do.

With respect, you're taking that view because you want to Remain. (You could also argue that I disagree with you because I want to leave! ) However, the fundamental point is that, having given the choice to people (rightly or wrongly) it would be inconceivable to ignore the instruction given.

He did not say anything about ignoring the referendum

andymadmak said:

biggles330d said:

The irony being any referendum is nothing more than a process to seek a collective opinion. A referendum result doesn't create a legal obligation to deliver the outcome. That our main political parties so quickly pandered to this public opinion and cast it into manifesto promises despite it being pretty obvious none of them had much of a clue about how it was going to be possible is the killer blow for me in my respect for our democratic process.

Ah, the "i want to cast the referendum as a glorified opinion poll" approach. It wasn't. The Government made it very clear that the result would be acted upon. Parliament voted absolutely overwhelmingly, across parties (with some notable exceptions) to grant the referendum. You only think that it's a killer blow because you did not get the result you wanted.

Everything he says is true. You are attempting to twist that.

andymadmak said:

biggles330d said:

I'd far rather someone say "ok people, yes we voted out of the EU but frankly we hadn't thought through what that meant, didn't expect it, never prepared for it and now we're in disarray as even three years on we don't appear to even have reached consensus in our own country what we want.

Consensus will never be possible. Remain has spent 3 years arguing with the actual principle of Brexit. Where do you think consensus is going to come from? May tried to fudge a middle ground BRINO and many would argue that that is the real reason why we are where we are now.

Of course consensus will be possible. You are just afraid that it will not be the consensus you want.

andymadmak said:

biggles330d said:

Let's for the sake of our best long term opportunity put things on pause and try to do this properly. Our country and economy deserve better than crashing out through nothing more than dogma".

But it isn't dogma. It's Brexit. Terms like 'crashing out' are emotive, but actually don't mean very much.
And even if you are genuine in your desire to plan things better, you still come up against an EU that currently says it's Mays WA or nowt.
If there is no change to the WA then it's No Deal. Johnson is trying to get the WA changed. Changes to the non binding PD are simply not going to cut it.

It’s dogma. We have not seriously negotiated with the EU since Nov 2018. We are shouting into the void about the current withdrawal agreement but failing utterly to offer anything better.

No deal is a last ditch attempt to make Brexit happen and it’s the only way to do so without having to solve any problems in advance. It is lazy and inept.

[Elysium]

NoNeed said:

Elysium said:

NoNeed said:

TTwiggy said:

NoNeed said:

leavers have a bigger majority than ever

You talk some crap

It's impossible to make that statement without running another referendum. Nobody knows who is in the majority.

Funny how Elysium made a similar statement saying the opposite was true and you didn't say that to him and according to you he can't possibly know either.

That’s because he read my post properly. I said “leavers are afraid that they may no longer be in the majority”

As TTwiggy said, none us actually knows what the ‘will of the people’ is at this point.

Leavers aren't though that is just a blatent made uo statement that has no bearing to reality.

In which case, why are leavers so determined that Brexit must happen without any further democratic process?

Excluding Parliament, forcing no deal before a general election, dismissing all suggestions of a second referendum. If leave is in the majority there is nothing to fear from these things. Yet you all seem to be afraid.

[andymadmak]

Elysium said:

Stuff


.

I am interested that you believe a consensus can be found. Do you have any thoughts as to what that might look like, and what % of the electorate might be able to unite behind it ?

[NoNeed]

Elysium said:

In which case, why are leavers so determined that Brexit must happen without any further democratic process?

Excluding Parliament, forcing no deal before a general election, dismissing all suggestions of a second referendum. If leave is in the majority there is nothing to fear from these things. Yet you all seem to be afraid.

A second referendum solves NOTHING until the first one has been enacted upon.

[TTwiggy]

NoNeed said:

TTwiggy said:

NoNeed said:

leavers have a bigger majority than ever

You talk some crap

It's impossible to make that statement without running another referendum. Nobody knows who is in the majority.

Funny how Elysium made a similar statement saying the opposite was true and you didn't say that to him and according to you he can't possibly know either.

Possibly because he wasn't roflling with such certainty?

[NoNeed]

TTwiggy said:

Possibly because he wasn't roflling with such certainty?

Or that he was playing to your particular prejudice

[TTwiggy]

NoNeed said:

TTwiggy said:

Possibly because he wasn't roflling with such certainty?

Or that he was playing to your particular prejudice

I have no prejudice. I have a position, which is that Brexit is a bad idea and a no-deal Brexit is rank stupidity. That said, I reluctantly accept the result and agree we 'have' to leave.

Non of this alters the fact that you do not possess the clairvoyance to know where the majority currently sits.

[Digga]

TTwiggy said:

NoNeed said:

leavers have a bigger majority than ever

You talk some crap

It's impossible to make that statement without running another referendum. Nobody knows who is in the majority.

Serious question; most remainers got this wrong first time around. I think it fair to say the leave vote was as shock for many. It was a particular shock to those who hoped and assumed they had their finger on the pulse of the nation.

What makes you certain you are better informed, or more closely aligned to reality this time?

[NoNeed]

TTwiggy said:

NoNeed said:

TTwiggy said:

Possibly because he wasn't roflling with such certainty?

Or that he was playing to your particular prejudice

I have no prejudice. I have a position, which is that Brexit is a bad idea and a no-deal Brexit is rank stupidity. That said, I reluctantly accept the result and agree we 'have' to leave.

Non of this alters the fact that you do not possess the clairvoyance to know where the majority currently sits.

I know of at least 3 remain viters who would now vote leave, I know of no leave voters that would now vote remain, I can only go on my personal experience which is nothing like Elysium describes in his deliberately inflammatory post

[Garvin]

banjowilly said:

. . . . . . . . so if you think October is the end of it, you are about to be badly disappointed. The minute we're out, the clamour to rejoin will begin. . . . . . . . . .

Apologies for snipping your post but amongst the ranting this particular bit caught my eye. Do I take it you believe that we will Brexit on 31st October and all attempts to stop/delay it will come to nought?

[Pan Pan Pan]

Elysium said:

NoNeed said:

Elysium said:

NoNeed said:

TTwiggy said:

NoNeed said:

leavers have a bigger majority than ever

You talk some crap

It's impossible to make that statement without running another referendum. Nobody knows who is in the majority.

Funny how Elysium made a similar statement saying the opposite was true and you didn't say that to him and according to you he can't possibly know either.

That’s because he read my post properly. I said “leavers are afraid that they may no longer be in the majority”

As TTwiggy said, none us actually knows what the ‘will of the people’ is at this point.

Leavers aren't though that is just a blatent made uo statement that has no bearing to reality.

In which case, why are leavers so determined that Brexit must happen without any further democratic process?

Excluding Parliament, forcing no deal before a general election, dismissing all suggestions of a second referendum. If leave is in the majority there is nothing to fear from these things. Yet you all seem to be afraid.

There was no democratic process when the UK was slimed into the EU by the government, without giving the people of the UK a vote on whether or not they wanted the UK to be a member of the EU.
Now after the ONLY democratic vote they have ever been given on the matter, there are still those who want to practice remainer style selective democracy, where they will only accept a vote which goes the way `they' wanted it to, and they try to overturn votes that did not.
That is a truly sick version of `democracy' But really it is no version of democracy at all, Why bother voting when those that did not get the vote result they wanted try to overturn a result they did not like?

[TTwiggy]

NoNeed said:

I know of at least 3 remain viters who would now vote leave, I know of no leave voters that would now vote remain, I can only go on my personal experience which is nothing like Elysium describes in his deliberately inflammatory post

I was recently talking to four leave voters. Of the four, two would now vote remain, one was unsure and the other was more vehemently behind leave than ever. We can all play this game...

[banjowilly]

Garvin said:

Apologies for snipping your post but amongst the ranting this particular bit caught my eye. Do I take it you believe that we will Brexit on 31st October and all attempts to stop/delay it will come to nought?

Looks that way, don't you think? Johnson seems to be abrogating the serious task of resolving the border issue by insisting the EU remove the backstop without offering an alternative whilst simultaneously manoeuvring to side step parliament and/or run the clock down.

Whether or not Parliamentary challenges will come to anything, I don't know. nevertheless, I was making a wider point about the notion October somehow represents the finish line, which it doesn't.