How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)

[Robertj21a]

frisbee said:

Zero chance BJ and chumps will come up with anything fundamentally different.

So WA basically unchanged will be back for anther loosing vote in a few weeks. Then the Cons can blame others for, take your pick, for:

a) leave with no-deal
b) cancel Brexit
c) something dumber than anyone can possibly imagine

I'm leaning strongly towards c).

We don't need to pick one, we leave on 31st October, by default, anyway.

[Robertj21a]

Leins said:

To be replaced by whom - Martin? God forbid it’s Mary Lou?!

I’m not entirely sure why there’s so much hatred of LV on here and in much of the British Media. There’s also a feeling that many would like to see RoI get done over by the EU, just to teach him and us a lesson

There are flaws with Fine Gael under his stewardship (much of it inherited like health and housing), and personally I think Coveney is a better politician, but I’d still take him over Boris as a leader of a country any day

Britain is in the process of unleashing the mother of all clusterf**ks on us with this Brexit, so its hardly surprising that Leo’s not standing by idly watching it all happen without a say on matters

I'm sure that the UK electorate didn't vote in 2016 to deliberately unleash anything on Ireland. We only had a simple Yes/No option as to whether or not we wanted to stay in the EU and there would always be a good many unintended consequences from a binary question.

[Leins]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

Very little criticism over Brexit, as generally the mainstream press understand how important EU membership has been, and hopefully will continue to be, to Ireland. The general consensus is he’s doing a good job on this front, particularly when it comes to standing up to the DUP

LV is a slightly different political entity to those who preceded him, and a more difficult one to pin down. Some of the masses here dislike him as they feel his “privileged” background means he doesn’t speak for the common man, others see an element of spin being used to try to sweep issues under the carpet. However, the sometimes portrayed image in the British press of him being nothing but a clown are very wide of the mark, and he’s well able to stand up for what he needs to. There could be an awful lot worse leading us here

Robertj21a said:

I'm sure that the UK electorate didn't vote in 2016 to deliberately unleash anything on Ireland. We only had a simple Yes/No option as to whether or not we wanted to stay in the EU and there would always be a good many unintended consequences from a binary question.

I don’t doubt that for a second, but we’re all responsible for our actions. No-one’s saying the UK doesn’t have a right to leave the EU, but to try to ignore the consequences of that, particularly when it comes to the impact on your bordering neighbour, doesn’t exactly help matters all that much. The message being received from 2016 onwards seemed to be very much “We’re leaving, you deal with it”, and that’s probably a large part of the reason we’re all where we are now

paul.deitch said:

Boris's new options are likely to be to offer buy Eire or start a war and invade it again.

I think we might be next on the list for Trump, as he wants our natural resources, Guinness and Jameson

Edited by Leins on Thursday 22 August 06:26

[Robertj21a]

We are certainly responsible for our actions, and I'm sure none are intended to harm Ireland in any way. Unfortunately, at present, the ROI is also the EU as far as we are concerned - hence the difficulty in agreeing anything.

Robertj21a said:

I'm sure that the UK electorate didn't vote in 2016 to deliberately unleash anything on Ireland. We only had a simple Yes/No option as to whether or not we wanted to stay in the EU and there would always be a good many unintended consequences from a binary question.

I don’t doubt that for a second, but we’re all responsible for our actions. No-one’s saying the UK doesn’t have a right to leave the EU, but to try to ignore the consequences of that, particularly when it comes to the impact on your bordering neighbour, doesn’t exactly help matters all that much. The message being received from 2016 onwards seemed to be very much “We’re leaving, you deal with it”, and that’s probably a large part of the reason we’re all where we are now

Edited by Leins on Thursday 22 August 06:26

[rdjohn]

NOTICE.

Only 30-days before this thread is finally closed. It’s official Mrs Merkel says so.

Get you final insults in soon, it might be your last chance - apart from all the other Brexit threads, of course.

[frisbee]

Robertj21a said:

frisbee said:

Zero chance BJ and chumps will come up with anything fundamentally different.

So WA basically unchanged will be back for anther loosing vote in a few weeks. Then the Cons can blame others for, take your pick, for:

a) leave with no-deal
b) cancel Brexit
c) something dumber than anyone can possibly imagine

I'm leaning strongly towards c).

We don't need to pick one, we leave on 29th March31st October, by default, anyway.

Of course we will.

[Garvin]

BoJo makes a weeny bit of progress and Remainers go into meltdown. Goodness only knows what they will do if he makes any real headway.

It does seem, however, that the EU have blinked and that there is some recognition that the WA needs to change. My fear is that BoJo will strike some sort of deal on the backstop issue (with the usual political face saving on both sides) but neglect to address all the other issues buried in the WA and get it through Parliament.

As for ROI, the UK is not trying to ‘do them over’ it has been trying to help keep trade etc. flowing freely but Varadkar has been making it very difficult. It will be interesting to see how he climbs down from his oft articulated backstop position if some accommodation twixt UK and EU is arrived at.

Finally, I have read some real guff on here but claims that May’s deal was the work of DExEU just takes the biscuit for utter, utter moronic stupidity. Either that or it is just a ramping up of the usual trolling. Take your pick.

[don'tbesilly]

Garvin said:

BoJo makes a weeny bit of progress and Remainers go into meltdown. Goodness only knows what they will do if he makes any real headway.

It does seem, however, that the EU have blinked and that there is some recognition that the WA needs to change. My fear is that BoJo will strike some sort of deal on the backstop issue (with the usual political face saving on both sides) but neglect to address all the other issues buried in the WA and get it through Parliament.

As for ROI, the UK is not trying to ‘do them over’ it has been trying to help keep trade etc. flowing freely but Varadkar has been making it very difficult. It will be interesting to see how he climbs down from his oft articulated backstop position if some accommodation twixt UK and EU is arrived at.

Finally, I have read some real guff on here but claims that May’s deal was the work of DExEU just takes the biscuit for utter, utter moronic stupidity. Either that or it is just a ramping up of the usual trolling. Take your pick.

Nail on head.

I don't think just addressing the backstop is going to be good enough to get the deal through the HoC.

I can see many who supported BJ in the race for PM turning against him after BJ made promises to not resurrect May's deal less the backstop and try and get it through the HoC, I can't see it working.

I rather suspect BJ is being seen to be trying to get a deal, only to fail and proceed with no deal.

[psi310398]

Sway said:

Do you rally think product certifications are managed at a border?

The type of border with a global average 2% inspections?

I rather think that was my mildly ironic point.

[powerstroke]

Leins said:

digimeistter said:

Ireland will not be thrown under a bus despite Varadker's pontification.

He will be out of a job soon though.

To be replaced by whom - Martin? God forbid it’s Mary Lou?!

I’m not entirely sure why there’s so much hatred of LV on here and in much of the British Media. There’s also a feeling that many would like to see RoI get done over by the EU, just to teach him and us a lesson

There are flaws with Fine Gael under his stewardship (much of it inherited like health and housing), and personally I think Coveney is a better politician, but I’d still take him over Boris as a leader of a country any day

Britain is in the process of unleashing the mother of all clusterf**ks on us with this Brexit, so its hardly surprising that Leo’s not standing by idly watching it all happen without a say on matters

Herman Kelly that's your man !!

[NoNeed]

don'tbesilly said:

Nail on head.

I don't think just addressing the backstop is going to be good enough to get the deal through the HoC.

I can see many who supported BJ in the race for PM turning against him after BJ made promises to not resurrect May's deal less the backstop and try and get it through the HoC, I can't see it working.

I rather suspect BJ is being seen to be trying to get a deal, only to fail and proceed with no deal.

He has to make it look lije he has improved the deal to bring it back, I am sure he would bring the same deal back if he thought he could get away with it.

I think whatever he comes back with will pass as MP's would rather a bad deal than no deal.

[slow_poke]

Is there a bit of grasping at straws and claiming premature victory going on here? The EU - Markel, the Eurocrats, the Irish, have always said they want the backstop to protect the GFA. If it's protected in some or any other way, they don't see the need for the backstop. They've been pretty consistent about that. (apart from maybe Macron, the Frenchie. He must've taken on the role of bad cop).

What they've also been doing, is running a hard-line recently in counterpoint to BJ's hard-line. It's good to see everyone backing away from that now because it had the potential to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So, suppose something pops up unexpectedly that satisfies everyone that the GFA is protected. No need for the backstop, everyone happy on that. Is the UK really going to agree to the rest of the WA? Should it?

[anonymous-user]

don'tbesilly said:

Nail on head.

I don't think just addressing the backstop is going to be good enough to get the deal through the HoC.

I can see many who supported BJ in the race for PM turning against him after BJ made promises to not resurrect May's deal less the backstop and try and get it through the HoC, I can't see it working.

I rather suspect BJ is being seen to be trying to get a deal, only to fail and proceed with no deal.

Boris was very clear in the PC that the backstop has to go and UK will be setting an independent trade and regulatory policy. That requires more than just the backstop to be removed from the WA.

BJ was very clever in using what Merkel said, she didn't say you have 30 days to come up with something, she said it may take 2 years, it may be possible in 30 days. He pounced on that to put a deadline in that is before October which enables renegotiation of the WA. May was not quick witted enough to have even recognised that opportunity.

Today will be fun with the pompous preener Macron.

[don'tbesilly]

NoNeed said:

don'tbesilly said:

Nail on head.

I don't think just addressing the backstop is going to be good enough to get the deal through the HoC.

I can see many who supported BJ in the race for PM turning against him after BJ made promises to not resurrect May's deal less the backstop and try and get it through the HoC, I can't see it working.

I rather suspect BJ is being seen to be trying to get a deal, only to fail and proceed with no deal.

He has to make it look lije he has improved the deal to bring it back, I am sure he would bring the same deal back if he thought he could get away with it.

I think whatever he comes back with will pass as MP's would rather a bad deal than no deal.

According to the MSM and the Beeb this morning Macron will be urinating all over Boris's chips today, so the bad deal many fear will result in a no deal.

Perhaps Johnson saw it coming all along but went along for the ride.

[Leins]

powerstroke said:

Herman Kelly that's your man !!

I’d prefer Henry Kelly. He managed to get Europe together!

[anonymous-user]

slow_poke said:

Is there a bit of grasping at straws and claiming premature victory going on here? The EU - Markel, the Eurocrats, the Irish, have always said they want the backstop to protect the GFA. If it's protected in some or any other way, they don't see the need for the backstop. They've been pretty consistent about that. (apart from maybe Macron, the Frenchie. He must've taken on the role of bad cop).

What they've also been doing, is running a hard-line recently in counterpoint to BJ's hard-line. It's good to see everyone backing away from that now because it had the potential to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So, suppose something pops up unexpectedly that satisfies everyone that the GFA is protected. No need for the backstop, everyone happy on that. Is the UK really going to agree to the rest of the WA? Should it?

The GFA is not endangered by a UK independent trade policy. It's been a bullst play from the start.

[Le Controleur Horizontal]

don'tbesilly said:

According to the MSM and the Beeb this morning Macron will be urinating all over Boris's chips today, so the bad deal many fear will result in a no deal.

Perhaps Johnson saw it coming all along but went along for the ride.

I am sure he can sell his "Pee" alongside all the French Wine that will have to be stored

[GT03ROB]

DeepEnd said:

He was an idiot who gambled that less than 50% would be duped into voting leave.

He underestimated leavers “capabilities” in this respect.

What he underestimated was the utter contempt swathes of the population hold for politicians of all colours. And when those same politicians & institutions stood up & said you are all doomed if you don't vote stay. That same population said "well fk you we are off then". The fact that same bunch of politicans have proceeded to confirm the contempt those swathes had was perfectly valid, has opened the door for the likes of Boris.

[slow_poke]

jsf said:

slow_poke said:

Is there a bit of grasping at straws and claiming premature victory going on here? The EU - Markel, the Eurocrats, the Irish, have always said they want the backstop to protect the GFA. If it's protected in some or any other way, they don't see the need for the backstop. They've been pretty consistent about that. (apart from maybe Macron, the Frenchie. He must've taken on the role of bad cop).

What they've also been doing, is running a hard-line recently in counterpoint to BJ's hard-line. It's good to see everyone backing away from that now because it had the potential to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

So, suppose something pops up unexpectedly that satisfies everyone that the GFA is protected. No need for the backstop, everyone happy on that. Is the UK really going to agree to the rest of the WA? Should it?

The GFA is not endangered by a UK independent trade policy. It's been a bullst play from the start.

You again? Haven't you learned yet that the GFA is about more than trade?

[Earthdweller]

Murph7355 said:

Just when you were starting to debate the topic..you seem to have been so fixated with cliff edges that you just threw your sanity over one.

May moved Robbins OUT of DExEU. Her speeches prior to Chequers made no reference to the rubbish she and Robbins conjured up. Ministers resigned once Chequers was out in the open.

The timing of events, the approach and the content don't give any inclination whatsoever that the person actually tasked with DExEU was responsible for her WA, nor any of the key people in that department.

Your comments about Hammond earlier are equally nuts. Both he and May were in positions to make their predictions self-fulfilling prophecies. They actively stopped any preps being made for No Deal. Absolute lunacy, unless their ploy was never to actually leave. Which bearing in mind the above shenanigans seems highly likely.

The fault for the shambles that has been the last three 3yrs lies pretty squarely at May's idiotic door. Parliament as a whole comes next - if it was so dead set against no deal all along it should never have voted through the Withdrawal Act but, having done so, should have done something affirmative about it. Cameron next for running away having caused the mess. He and Osborne for not allowing for proper preps for a no deal outcome in the run up to the vote.

But all of that pales somewhat to my Top 3...

Brown - no referendum at the point of Lisbon
Major - no referendum on Maastricht
EU politicos - for their general approach and disdain for the citizens of Europe they are meant to serve.

A leaver blaming everyone else? Nope. Blaming a very specific set of people who I think made very fundamental mistakes which led to the vote to leave

Blaming Johnson, Gove, Davis, Leave voters...that's the short sighted bit. Look deeper

Agree, shouldering the blame on recent events is not seeing the bigger picture

It’s been brewing for many years .. one of the key moments was when Cameron asked them to cut some slack and was sent away like a naughty schoolboy

The EU intransigence then set in train the events we have seen since

There was probably a lot of back slapping back then in Brussels but the failed to look at the bigger picture and understand that each action has a reaction

We are living through that reaction now