How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 11)

[Elysium]

AJL308 said:

El stovey said:

p1stonhead said:

Extension coming?

How’s Boris going to spin not leaving on the 31st of October?

So, more delays and small amendments to May’s deal, passed by parliament because they’ve seen what no brexit looks like. Boris heroically announces he’s united the country and delivered brexit, people aren’t really sure but are so fed up they don’t care anymore.

It's way more than 30 days away.

30 days is the time available until the next EU meeting, which will be Johnson’s last chance to present a solution to render the backstop redundant.

[Vanden Saab]

Elysium said:

AJL308 said:

El stovey said:

p1stonhead said:

Extension coming?

How’s Boris going to spin not leaving on the 31st of October?

So, more delays and small amendments to May’s deal, passed by parliament because they’ve seen what no brexit looks like. Boris heroically announces he’s united the country and delivered brexit, people aren’t really sure but are so fed up they don’t care anymore.

It's way more than 30 days away.

30 days is the time available until the next EU meeting, which will be Johnson’s last chance to present a solution to render the backstop redundant.

Why can the EU not call a special meeting at a later date to agree the new WA?

[DeepEnd]

Sway said:

He had a certain smile, didn't he?

2% is the global average level of inspections for a normal WTO border...

So what is the level of check now?

And why is he saying 10% if you are now implying 2%?

[AJL308]

Elysium said:

AJL308 said:

El stovey said:

p1stonhead said:

Extension coming?

How’s Boris going to spin not leaving on the 31st of October?

So, more delays and small amendments to May’s deal, passed by parliament because they’ve seen what no brexit looks like. Boris heroically announces he’s united the country and delivered brexit, people aren’t really sure but are so fed up they don’t care anymore.

It's way more than 30 days away.

30 days is the time available until the next EU meeting, which will be Johnson’s last chance to present a solution to render the backstop redundant.

So the EU are not going to enter into any discussion after that date despite it being more than a month before October 31st?

[don'tbesilly]

Sway said:

DeepEnd said:

andymadmak said:

DeepEnd said:

This guy?

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com...

Changed his tune a bit it seems to C’est la Bullst!

Other way round. The article you linked to is more than one year old

No its the right way around

Jean 2018. “ Oh merde no deal beaucoup de traffic 30 miles”
Business/Port of Calais - “Shut the fck up Jean you’re driving business to the other ports!”
Jean now. “Oui pas de problem. Pas de checks dans Pas de Calais well hardly at all. Bienvenue a Calais”

Where is his 10% only checked come from? Why does he think 60% not affected in no deal?

If only 2% is checked now, what scale of increase is this - just five fold (!) or is it really worse and Jean is trying to protect Calais (as is his job, like it was comical Alis).

He had a certain smile, didn't he?

2% is the global average level of inspections for a normal WTO border...

So so subtle

[Sway]

DeepEnd said:

Sway said:

He had a certain smile, didn't he?

2% is the global average level of inspections for a normal WTO border...

So what is the level of check now?

And why is he saying 10% if you are now implying 2%?

He's saying ten percent would be eligible for inspection, or are GOAO which would require it.

Current levels of border inspection at Calais/Dover I've not got the data for.

[Earthdweller]

DeepEnd said:

So what is the level of check now?

And why is he saying 10% if you are now implying 2%?

Because ..
30% are empty
60% carrying exempt goods
10% are checkable
2% is the WTO average of what actually gets checked

[Garvin]

Sway said:

Garvin said:

FiF said:

. . . . . . . As mentioned in the earlier post, edited out by willy in interests of having a completely wide of the mark pop, many firms are starting to look at alternative supply routes as opposed to increasing the pain in the South East. Belgian and Dutch ports rubbing their hands . . . ... .

Very much this. All our alternative routes are set up and ready to go and I suspect so are a lot of other industries’.

Virtually everyone I've ever worked for had "non-South Coast" routing options... Have done for years.

Yes, so have we . . . . . . . . for many years. However, we have increased the number of options we now have.

[loafer123]

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote a interesting article in the Telegraph this morning explaining that freight is moving to containers which are pre-cleared and arrive closer to their end destinations, rather than via lorries through Calais which is more vulnerable to political actions.

Hull is apparently up 30% yoy.

[Sway]

Garvin said:

Sway said:

Garvin said:

FiF said:

. . . . . . . As mentioned in the earlier post, edited out by willy in interests of having a completely wide of the mark pop, many firms are starting to look at alternative supply routes as opposed to increasing the pain in the South East. Belgian and Dutch ports rubbing their hands . . . ... .

Very much this. All our alternative routes are set up and ready to go and I suspect so are a lot of other industries’.

Virtually everyone I've ever worked for had "non-South Coast" routing options... Have done for years.

Yes, so have we . . . . . . . . for many years. However, we have increased the number of options we now have.

We've not needed to, but are aware of many options...

[Vanden Saab]

Earthdweller said:

DeepEnd said:

So what is the level of check now?

And why is he saying 10% if you are now implying 2%?

Because ..
30% are empty
60% carrying exempt goods
10% are checkable
2% is the WTO average of what actually gets checked

Is that 2% of the total or 2% of the 10%?

[wc98]

Mrr T said:

The experts point out that there is nothing to stop a EU citizen entering the UK between 1 October 2019 and 31 December 2020 working up until December 2020.

This is another no deal mess which the government cannot resolve because it cannot pass any legislation.

so fking what ? do you have a problem with them doing that ? i don't and neither should anyone else.

[Sway]

Vanden Saab said:

Earthdweller said:

DeepEnd said:

So what is the level of check now?

And why is he saying 10% if you are now implying 2%?

Because ..
30% are empty
60% carrying exempt goods
10% are checkable
2% is the WTO average of what actually gets checked

Is that 2% of the total or 2% of the 10%?

2% of total goods movements.

If only 70% are carrying goods, that would equate to 1.4% of lorries being inspected.

However, that 2% figure is not at each port of entry - it's the average percentage across the importing nation. Customs officialdom tend to be pretty good at risk weighting their selections for inspection - so for example consignments from Columbia (other large scale drug exporting nations are likely to be inspected at far higher rates), whereas imports on other consignment types /sources considerably less than the average.

[Murph7355]

AJL308 said:

Elysium said:

AJL308 said:

El stovey said:

p1stonhead said:

Extension coming?

How’s Boris going to spin not leaving on the 31st of October?

So, more delays and small amendments to May’s deal, passed by parliament because they’ve seen what no brexit looks like. Boris heroically announces he’s united the country and delivered brexit, people aren’t really sure but are so fed up they don’t care anymore.

It's way more than 30 days away.

30 days is the time available until the next EU meeting, which will be Johnson’s last chance to present a solution to render the backstop redundant.

So the EU are not going to enter into any discussion after that date despite it being more than a month before October 31st?

Leave Elysium alone. He's Dominic Grieving.

[don'tbesilly]

Murph7355 said:

AJL308 said:

Elysium said:

AJL308 said:

El stovey said:

p1stonhead said:

Extension coming?

How’s Boris going to spin not leaving on the 31st of October?

So, more delays and small amendments to May’s deal, passed by parliament because they’ve seen what no brexit looks like. Boris heroically announces he’s united the country and delivered brexit, people aren’t really sure but are so fed up they don’t care anymore.

It's way more than 30 days away.

30 days is the time available until the next EU meeting, which will be Johnson’s last chance to present a solution to render the backstop redundant.

So the EU are not going to enter into any discussion after that date despite it being more than a month before October 31st?

Leave Elysium alone. He's Dominic Grieving.

It's been three years, at what point does one have to move on if only for your own well being?

[drdel]

So Merkel's 30 days was an allegory. It seems even a German Chancellor can make up stories when she wants to set hares running - Macron was obviously taken in as well !

[Murph7355]

don'tbesilly said:

It's been three years, at what point does one have to move on if only for your own well being?

Some never will.

The irony tables will turn and they'll become "gammon' whining about our not being part of the EU and blaming all their troubles on that until they die.

Some might live long enough to see an anti-Farage rise and take us back in.

Most will just crack on and get on with life.

We'll, meanwhile continue to prosper and with luck will get better politicians in future... Maybe.

[Sway]

Where has banjo gone?

[Earthdweller]

Sway said:

Where has banjo gone?

Found him !

[DeepEnd]

Earthdweller said:

DeepEnd said:

So what is the level of check now?

And why is he saying 10% if you are now implying 2%?

Because ..
30% are empty
60% carrying exempt goods
10% are checkable
2% is the WTO average of what actually gets checked

I read on the BBC that trucks from the EU basically go straight through but trucks from e.g. Switzerland spend 1-5 hours in Dover when coming in - ranging from paperwork to inspection.

I assume there will be some sample inspections done in all cases, but that doesn’t sound like the full story for how no deal will impact these EU lorries.

What is the change going to be under no deal for the EU trucks - and how does this translate to time?