Election 2019

[ChocolateFrog]

Tory majority ITRO 10 - 20.

JC to declare himself the defacto PM.

[don'tbesilly]

booboise blueboys said:

don'tbesilly said:

booboise blueboys said:

don'tbesilly said:

I'm going 25-30

Is that all? Would be a poor result all things considered.

It will do and given the appalling stunts pulled by Labour would show up just how appalling your hero Corbyn is in not being able to capitalise on the opportunities that Johnson has presented.

Corbyn failed in 2017 despite promising the equivalent of a lottery win to anyone who voted Labour, the repeated promises in 2019 have failed yet again, your disappointment on Friday morning will be a treat to witness, but you'll do a Johnson and hide away

Why on earth are you talking about Corbyn again? I'm not voting Labour you tool.

Of course not

[booboise blueboys]

don'tbesilly said:

YouGov 5/6 Dec

Boris Johnson -13%

-13 Is terrible for an incoming PM. Don't think that's ever happened before. The country don't like him.

[dickymint]

booboise blueboys said:

dickymint said:

My prediction - Tory majority due to foul weather preventing your average Labour voter getting off their fat arses to vote

Incorrect. It will be the old Tories who fail to go out in the bad weather. Labour have a massive amount of volunteers who will get out the vote.

Tories discovered postal voting years ago

[biggbn]

don'tbesilly said:

booboise blueboys said:

Vanden Saab said:

booboise blueboys said:

Peter911 said:

ELUSIVEJIM said:

The big day tomorrow.

I am amazed at the polls. Really hope they are wrong.

Me too. I cannot believe people (except those who go through life on benefits) are stupid enough to believe Corbyn/McDonnel crap. What short memories or how uneducated are the populace?

200 seat majority is how it should be.

Any less and our education system is still lagging behind, even though results show it is leaping back up international standards tables.

The people are smart enough to know when they're being lied to by a weak leader who looks like a wreck. That's why the Tory lead is falling away. Pure and simple.

What is simple is that the last few days of constant media attacks on Johnson have probably had the exact opposite effect to what you suggest. Many people like Boris, how many people on the street when interviewed have said as much. Nobody likes to see one of their mates beaten up... and I think this will show out in the election tomorrow not long to wait now...

Quite the opposite in fact. The more the public see of Boris, the more they dislike him. His approval ratings are appalling and would be the lowest ever for an incoming prime minister if he wins.

People will have been put off by the cowardly behavious he has shown. Not a good look if you want to lead this country.

YouGov 5/6 Dec

Boris Johnson -13%
Jeremy Corbyn - 47%

...which would still make Boris lowest of an incoming prime minister if he won? Corbyn could be showing 90%, irrelevant if he doesn't win which I think was the point? I am perversely amused and dismayed our country has come to a choice like this. If our political representatives are a reflection of our collective intellect, we are staring down a short gun barrel to oblivion. And we are owning it. Laughing all the way to the abattoir.

[booboise blueboys]

dickymint said:

booboise blueboys said:

dickymint said:

My prediction - Tory majority due to foul weather preventing your average Labour voter getting off their fat arses to vote

Incorrect. It will be the old Tories who fail to go out in the bad weather. Labour have a massive amount of volunteers who will get out the vote.

Tories discovered postal voting years ago

In my constituency at least, there are a lot of postal votes which haven't arrived. The environment Secretary will probably lose her job as a result since this is a marginal. Hahaha.

[uk66fastback]

At the end of the day, no matter how badly Boris might have come across in certain situations, he is not as unelectable as Grandad.

How anyone with half a brain can even consider putting an IRA sympathiser and a Marxist into No. 10 & 11 is beyond me.

When has electing ANY tax and spend Labour Govt. over the years ever proved to be a good decision?

You just have to look at history. Michael Foot's election Manifesto of the early '80s was an palling thing to present to the British people (the election when Grandad was elected into Westminster), hanging on to the last bastions of union power and it was rightly rejected by the electorate. Thirty five or so years on from that, Labour are in that same left wing position - although bizarrely with more support, partly I think, sue to the perceived injustices by the Tories in the last decade. (I have to say I have not hear the power of the unions mentioned AT ALL during this election campaign).

Will be watching with interest ...

Aldi have had on sale a nice little caramel rum that'll see me through the (long) night ...

[gazapc]

Survation, the Corbynistas favourite just came out with their final poll...

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 45% (-)
LAB: 34% (+3)
LDEM: 9% (-2)

via @Survation, 10 - 11 Dec
Chgs. w/ 07 Dec

Will be settling in for a few hours at least at 10pm tomorrow evening.

[dazwalsh]

I'm just glad we are near the end, because its been an absolute clusterfk of a campaign from start to finish for all parties, manifestos lost in mud slinging and whataboutery, compounded by the media who have been utterly appalling.

[rfisher]

Yep - should have just announced an election with 48hrs notice.

Nothing has been gained by anyone over the last 5 weeks.

Not to mention the millions of £ wasted.

[uk66fastback]

Talk on Newsnight tonight of this essentially being a social media battle ... most people preaching to the converted though.

My daughter (25) got all her info about the candidates from social media - she never watches a news programme or reads a paper ... a lot of people her age just don't anymore. They read a lot online but you point out that perhaps the sites they read have a political bias, and she says she never realised and thought it was all The Truth. And she is ooni-ver-sity-edukaited. M A D.

If it was done with 48hrs notice it'd all be a lot easier ... and less expensive. The Lib Dems have been spending a fortune in their online ad campaign ... more than the other two main parties. Doesn't seem to have worked for them though - but that's The Swinson Factor.

[JagLover]

vaud said:

I'll watch the exit poll, a few mins of response then got to bed until 5ish when the true results will be flowing.

Result usually known well before 5 because with the exit poll, supplemented by results around the country, the models can predict fairly accurately.

I will do what I usually do, go to bed early, and if I wake up around 1 or 2 head over to the lounge to see how things are going.

[JagLover]

Ridgemont said:

wishing you all a happy general election eve.

a Summary of this evening’s polls:

CON: 45% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+2)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
BREX: 3% (-)
GRN: 3% (+1)

via ?@DeltaPollUK?, 09 -11 Dec

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 32% (-)
LDEM: 13% (-2)
BREX: 3% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-)

via ?@KantarTNS?, 09 -11 Dec

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 12% (-)

via ?@SavantaComRes?, 09 - 10 Dec

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 34% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-2)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

via ?@PanelbaseMD?, 10 - 11 Dec

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 32% (-)
LDEM: 14% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
BREX: 3% (-1)

via ?@BMGResearch?, 06 - 11 Dec


That comres one looks like an outlier but even so, tomorrow my tipples of choice will be a glass or two of a fine Bordeaux, followed by a nice Dalwhinnie, and a side order of revolver if it all starts getting a bit CCCP around 2 in the morning.

Enjoy tomorrow and remember to vote!
(My money is on a 30-40 majority for the Tories: those numbers look mostly strong).

A very strange mix of polls

On one of them you would get a Tory landslide and on another a potential Labour/SNP coalition. I guess it just goes to show that the poll that matters is being held today

[Dr Jekyll]

Simonium said:

Self interest has no interest for me, and only those who are grasping, selfish, and inward looking would seek to re-elect the imbeciles currently in government .

If voting conservative means I'm selfish, does that mean the conservatives would make me better off?

[turbobloke]

Ridgemont said:

wishing you all a happy general election eve.

a Summary of this evening’s polls:

CON: 45% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+2)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
BREX: 3% (-)
GRN: 3% (+1)

via ?@DeltaPollUK?, 09 -11 Dec

CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 32% (-)
LDEM: 13% (-2)
BREX: 3% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-)

via ?@KantarTNS?, 09 -11 Dec

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 36% (+3)
LDEM: 12% (-)

via ?@SavantaComRes?, 09 - 10 Dec

CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 34% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-2)
BREX: 4% (+1)
GRN: 3% (+1)

via ?@PanelbaseMD?, 10 - 11 Dec

CON: 41% (-)
LAB: 32% (-)
LDEM: 14% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
BREX: 3% (-1)

via ?@BMGResearch?, 06 - 11 Dec


That comres one looks like an outlier but even so, tomorrow my tipples of choice will be a glass or two of a fine Bordeaux, followed by a nice Dalwhinnie, and a side order of revolver if it all starts getting a bit CCCP around 2 in the morning.

The ComRes poll was completed earlier (to 10 Dec) than the rest (to 11 Dec) which of itself is a significant difference for comparison purposes, although looking at minimum polling error and assuming a ~2000 sample size its numbers are consistent with Con 43% Lab 34% which is very similar to the rest. Comparing polls is fun but full of errors.

It's just past 6.30 am, the ride starts in about half an hour.

[Digga]

General Price said:

Simonium said:

only those who are grasping, selfish, and inward looking would seek to re-elect the imbeciles currently in government .

You don't need to worry about that,they are all Labour supporters.

Quite. Basing your vote primarily on what the government promises to give you, personally, for free, rather than on the greater good and bigger picture is the height of selfishness.

[turbobloke]

Purely for entertainment and fwiw, the last six polls all completed to 11 Dec gave a Conservative lead of 9, 9, 10, 11, 12, 12 percentage points.

[turbobloke]

Ridgemont said:

wishing you all a happy general election eve.

(My money is on a 30-40 majority for the Tories: those numbers look mostly strong).

You too Ridgemont.

I've already posted an optimistic 42 majority, given it's the answer to life, the universe and everything and as the precarious polls to 11 Dec don't write it off, I'll stick rather than twist.

[ecsrobin]

turbobloke said:

Ridgemont said:

wishing you all a happy general election eve.

(My money is on a 30-40 majority for the Tories: those numbers look mostly strong).

You too Ridgemont.

I've already posted an optimistic 42 majority, given it's the answer to life, the universe and everything and as the precarious polls to 11 Dec don't write it off, I'll stick rather than twist.

I’ll go with 20-25 majority as knowing how many intelligent friends and business owners that I know seem to love JC I think may impact that majority.

Of course come this time tomorrow unite and momentum will be on the streets marching on Whitehall for a recount as 20-25 is not a majority in their eyes

[turbobloke]

ecsrobin said:

turbobloke said:

Ridgemont said:

wishing you all a happy general election eve.

(My money is on a 30-40 majority for the Tories: those numbers look mostly strong).

You too Ridgemont.

I've already posted an optimistic 42 majority, given it's the answer to life, the universe and everything and as the precarious polls to 11 Dec don't write it off, I'll stick rather than twist.

I’ll go with 20-25 majority as Knowing how many intelligent friends and business owners that I know seem to love JC I think may impact that majority.

Of course come this time tomorrow unite and momentum will be on the streets marching on Whitehall for a recount as 20-25 is not a majority in their eyes

Nothing less than a crowd-funded legal action for a complete re-vote would do.