Poll: Election 2019
Total Members Polled: 1601
Discussion
Digga said:
So in summary, to paraphrase you:
We have Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson, who are all unfit for office.
Is there a good Monster Raving Loony candidate?
The negativity and cynicism towards the all the parties is pretty terrible at the moment. All the parties (and their supporters) are focusing on how the other options are even worse. We have Johnson, Corbyn and Swinson, who are all unfit for office.
Is there a good Monster Raving Loony candidate?
Any leadership debate is going to be finger pointing and blame and even more negative than the last.
Swinson could do herself a real boost if she gets on any and is actually positive about anything. That’s what Clegg managed to do anyway.
El stovey said:
Have many parties actually released their manifestos yet?
Labour’s seems to be changing all the time and they’re still arguing about freedom of movement. The conservatives have released some info about points based immigration but won’t set targets. They’ve also largely been in charge of immigration for the last 9 years but have failed to control it properly.
The attraction of the libdems apart from cancelling brexit is that they’re a centrist (not obviously damaging) alternative to labour and the conservatives.
The kind of people that will vote libdem are likely the sort that are floating voters not aligned to a particular party and will make a decision nearer the time or moderate Tory voters wanting to cancel brexit.
They’re obviously not going to get anywhere near as many votes as the two main parties though.
Some good points. I think there's been enough released by the two main parties over the last few weeks to get a reasonable feeling of where they're going - I can't say the same about the Libs unless the media just hasn't reported it very well.Labour’s seems to be changing all the time and they’re still arguing about freedom of movement. The conservatives have released some info about points based immigration but won’t set targets. They’ve also largely been in charge of immigration for the last 9 years but have failed to control it properly.
The attraction of the libdems apart from cancelling brexit is that they’re a centrist (not obviously damaging) alternative to labour and the conservatives.
The kind of people that will vote libdem are likely the sort that are floating voters not aligned to a particular party and will make a decision nearer the time or moderate Tory voters wanting to cancel brexit.
They’re obviously not going to get anywhere near as many votes as the two main parties though.
Edited by El stovey on Monday 18th November 09:34
To be fair this is nothing new, I remember Clegg basing most of his approach around "we're not either of these two old parties" in the run-up to the 2010 GE. Although he had a much more positive approach than Swinson has so far.
(Edit: I see you've covered this below, I agree)
Tankrizzo said:
Some good points. I think there's been enough released by the two main parties over the last few weeks to get a reasonable feeling of where they're going - I can't say the same about the Libs unless the media just hasn't reported it very well.
To be fair this is nothing new, I remember Clegg basing most of his approach around "we're not either of these two old parties" in the run-up to the 2010 GE. Although he had a much more positive approach than Swinson has so far.
(Edit: I see you've covered this below, I agree)
I couldn't tell you any of their policies either. Something about flood defences?To be fair this is nothing new, I remember Clegg basing most of his approach around "we're not either of these two old parties" in the run-up to the 2010 GE. Although he had a much more positive approach than Swinson has so far.
(Edit: I see you've covered this below, I agree)
That said it's a bit chicken and egg in that if they're excluded from debates how are they expected to get their message out there?
I would say the same for Farage to be fair though how far do you go before you have 7 people on a stage.
Randy Winkman said:
It's not a Brexit vote though. It's a general election where I reckon most people simply pick between the 2 parties they think might win.
It's gonna be a big indicator. Though I have n idea where the cards will fall after experiencing the 017 election where stuff went more nuts than they had been.El stovey said:
Tankrizzo said:
I'm surprised that so many are considering voting LibDem when there's pretty much bugger all in their policies apart from "cAnCeL bReXiT" and "We're not the Tories or Labour".
What else do they stand for? I mean, they're just Reverse Brexit Party at the moment.
Have many parties actually released their manifestos yet? What else do they stand for? I mean, they're just Reverse Brexit Party at the moment.
Labour’s seems to be changing all the time and they’re still arguing about freedom of movement. The conservatives have released some info about points based immigration but won’t set targets. They’ve also largely been in charge of immigration for the last 9 years but have failed to control it properly.
The attraction of the libdems apart from cancelling brexit is that they’re a centrist (not obviously damaging) alternative to labour and the conservatives.
The kind of people that will vote libdem are likely the sort that are floating voters not aligned to a particular party and will make a decision nearer the time or moderate Tory voters wanting to cancel brexit.
They’re obviously not going to get anywhere near as many votes as the two main parties though.
Edited by El stovey on Monday 18th November 09:34
Being positive, that means it won't use much paper as it'll struggle to fill half a side of A5.
Poll result from Survation. First one after Brexit party announcement re standing down in some seats, plus where respondents prompted with only choices of candidates actually standing in their specific constituency. Plus comparison with same poll in 2017.
Usual caveat, application of general figures to seats in fptp system, plus if we thought 2017 was bat effluent crazy we hadn't predicted this shower.
Usual caveat, application of general figures to seats in fptp system, plus if we thought 2017 was bat effluent crazy we hadn't predicted this shower.
FiF said:
Poll result from Survation. First one after Brexit party announcement re standing down in some seats, plus where respondents prompted with only choices of candidates actually standing in their specific constituency. Plus comparison with same poll in 2017.
Usual caveat, application of general figures to seats in fptp system, plus if we thought 2017 was bat effluent crazy we hadn't predicted this shower.
BJ will be fine provided he doesn't start talking about fox hunting.Usual caveat, application of general figures to seats in fptp system, plus if we thought 2017 was bat effluent crazy we hadn't predicted this shower.
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hstewie said:
hstewie said:Tankrizzo said:
Some good points. I think there's been enough released by the two main parties over the last few weeks to get a reasonable feeling of where they're going - I can't say the same about the Libs unless the media just hasn't reported it very well.
To be fair this is nothing new, I remember Clegg basing most of his approach around "we're not either of these two old parties" in the run-up to the 2010 GE. Although he had a much more positive approach than Swinson has so far.
(Edit: I see you've covered this below, I agree)
I couldn't tell you any of their policies either. Something about flood defences?To be fair this is nothing new, I remember Clegg basing most of his approach around "we're not either of these two old parties" in the run-up to the 2010 GE. Although he had a much more positive approach than Swinson has so far.
(Edit: I see you've covered this below, I agree)
That said it's a bit chicken and egg in that if they're excluded from debates how are they expected to get their message out there?
I would say the same for Farage to be fair though how far do you go before you have 7 people on a stage.
Randy Winkman said:
BJ will be fine provided he doesn't start talking about fox hunting.
I think whilst Corbyn and McDonnell are leading labour, Boris can do whatever the actual fk he wants. He’s very unpopular compared to other PMs even his supporters say he’s dishonest and untrustworthy but he’s still miles ahead in the polls. It's not just because he’s going to “get brexit done”
May ran the worst campaign in history and still he didn’t win.
I hope labour get properly trounced in this election and Corbyn AND McDonnell get replaced. Much of what has been going wrong in British politics is due to having an ineffectual opposition since Corbyn and momentum took over the Labour Party.
El stovey said:
Much of what has been going wrong in British politics is due to having an ineffectual opposition since Corbyn and momentum took over the Labour Party.
I think we need to be in a situation where the party in power has a reasonable majority in order to execute on their manifesto and not be frustrated by coalition / confidence-supply. ...but not such a large majority that they get arrogant. A majority of 20-30 feels about right - small enough that back benchers need to be kept close and not disregarded.
But we also need a strong opposition who actually look and behave like a govt in waiting to hold them to account.
vaud said:
El stovey said:
Much of what has been going wrong in British politics is due to having an ineffectual opposition since Corbyn and momentum took over the Labour Party.
I think we need to be in a situation where the party in power has a reasonable majority in order to execute on their manifesto and not be frustrated by coalition / confidence-supply. ...but not such a large majority that they get arrogant. A majority of 20-30 feels about right - small enough that back benchers need to be kept close and not disregarded.
But we also need a strong opposition who actually look and behave like a govt in waiting to hold them to account.
https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
UK Polling Report is a handy site to bookmark. Gives all the latest polls and commentary on methods.
UK Polling Report is a handy site to bookmark. Gives all the latest polls and commentary on methods.
- YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 45%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 15%(nc), BREX 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from the YouGov/Times/Sky poll mid-week.
- SavantaComRes/S Telegraph – CON 41%(+1), LAB 33%(+3), LDEM 14%(-2), BREX 5%(-2). Fieldwork was on Wednesday and Thursday, and changes are from the midweek poll for the Telegraph
- Opinium/Observer – CON 44%(+3), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 14% (-1), BREX 6% (nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday, and changes are from last week. Tables here.
- BMG/Independent – CON 37%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 16%(nc), BREX 9%(nc). Fieldwork was Tuesday to Friday. Changes would be from last week, though in this case, the party shares are unchanged.
- Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 45%(+4), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 11%(-5), BREX 6%(nc). Changes are from last week.
Digga said:
vaud said:
El stovey said:
Much of what has been going wrong in British politics is due to having an ineffectual opposition since Corbyn and momentum took over the Labour Party.
I think we need to be in a situation where the party in power has a reasonable majority in order to execute on their manifesto and not be frustrated by coalition / confidence-supply. ...but not such a large majority that they get arrogant. A majority of 20-30 feels about right - small enough that back benchers need to be kept close and not disregarded.
But we also need a strong opposition who actually look and behave like a govt in waiting to hold them to account.
Tories More Popular among Working Class Than Rich, New General Election Poll Shows
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/13/to...
That was from the 13th November. It would do the Conserativevs a lot of good to improve on that position, as per your post.
vaud said:
https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
UK Polling Report is a handy site to bookmark. Gives all the latest polls and commentary on methods.
That's enough to suspect BMG haven't caught up on methodology with YouGov and the rest since TBP withdrew candidates. Without details, who knows.UK Polling Report is a handy site to bookmark. Gives all the latest polls and commentary on methods.
- YouGov/Sunday Times – CON 45%(+3), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 15%(nc), BREX 4%(nc). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from the YouGov/Times/Sky poll mid-week.
- SavantaComRes/S Telegraph – CON 41%(+1), LAB 33%(+3), LDEM 14%(-2), BREX 5%(-2). Fieldwork was on Wednesday and Thursday, and changes are from the midweek poll for the Telegraph
- Opinium/Observer – CON 44%(+3), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 14% (-1), BREX 6% (nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday, and changes are from last week. Tables here.
- BMG/Independent – CON 37%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 16%(nc), BREX 9%(nc). Fieldwork was Tuesday to Friday. Changes would be from last week, though in this case, the party shares are unchanged.
- Deltapoll/Mail on Sunday – CON 45%(+4), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 11%(-5), BREX 6%(nc). Changes are from last week.
turbobloke said:
Digga said:
vaud said:
El stovey said:
Much of what has been going wrong in British politics is due to having an ineffectual opposition since Corbyn and momentum took over the Labour Party.
I think we need to be in a situation where the party in power has a reasonable majority in order to execute on their manifesto and not be frustrated by coalition / confidence-supply. ...but not such a large majority that they get arrogant. A majority of 20-30 feels about right - small enough that back benchers need to be kept close and not disregarded.
But we also need a strong opposition who actually look and behave like a govt in waiting to hold them to account.
Tories More Popular among Working Class Than Rich, New General Election Poll Shows
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/13/to...
That was from the 13th November. It would do the Conserativevs a lot of good to improve on that position, as per your post.
However, they also have little to no connection with any recent Tory PM. that has to change, as too the constituent members of the cabinet. It is getting there.
Digga said:
turbobloke said:
Digga said:
vaud said:
El stovey said:
Much of what has been going wrong in British politics is due to having an ineffectual opposition since Corbyn and momentum took over the Labour Party.
I think we need to be in a situation where the party in power has a reasonable majority in order to execute on their manifesto and not be frustrated by coalition / confidence-supply. ...but not such a large majority that they get arrogant. A majority of 20-30 feels about right - small enough that back benchers need to be kept close and not disregarded.
But we also need a strong opposition who actually look and behave like a govt in waiting to hold them to account.
Tories More Popular among Working Class Than Rich, New General Election Poll Shows
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/13/to...
That was from the 13th November. It would do the Conserativevs a lot of good to improve on that position, as per your post.
However, they also have little to no connection with any recent Tory PM. that has to change, as too the constituent members of the cabinet. It is getting there.
Out of interest, do those people express a deep connection with Corbyn and McDonnell? Or a shallow one?
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html
You can have fun plugging various numbers into this election calculator.
Obvs, depends on your definition of fun. And heavily caveated that it is basic.
You can have fun plugging various numbers into this election calculator.
Obvs, depends on your definition of fun. And heavily caveated that it is basic.
vaud said:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/userpoll.html
You can have fun plugging various numbers into this election calculator.
Obvs, depends on your definition of fun. And heavily caveated that it is basic.
All good fun You can have fun plugging various numbers into this election calculator.
Obvs, depends on your definition of fun. And heavily caveated that it is basic.
Here's another, with the ComRes poll figures typed in. Numbers can be changed.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/swingometer/uk-pa...
Digga said:
vaud said:
El stovey said:
Much of what has been going wrong in British politics is due to having an ineffectual opposition since Corbyn and momentum took over the Labour Party.
I think we need to be in a situation where the party in power has a reasonable majority in order to execute on their manifesto and not be frustrated by coalition / confidence-supply. ...but not such a large majority that they get arrogant. A majority of 20-30 feels about right - small enough that back benchers need to be kept close and not disregarded.
But we also need a strong opposition who actually look and behave like a govt in waiting to hold them to account.
Margaret Thatcher: Grammer School
John Major: Grammar School
William Hague: Comprehensive School
Iain Duncan Smith: Secondary Modern
Micheal Howard: Grammar School
David Cameron: Private/Public School (fee paying)
Theresa May: Grammar School
Boris Johnson: Private/Public School (won a scholarship, the Kings Scholarship represents the original ethos of Eton to provide schooling for 70 poor boys a year. Not to say that at the time the Johnson family was impoverished, but neither were they fabulously wealthy. His father had worked hard in academic research (never a high salary profession) to a decent job at the European Commission).
So 6:2 in favour of the State, and likely if Johnson hadn't won a scholarship, he also would have been in the State sector.
Labour:
James Callaghan; Grammer School
Micheal Foot: Private/Public School
Neil Kinnock: Comprehensive School
John Smith: Grammar School
Margaret Beckett: State Secondary
Tony Blair: Private/Public School
Gordon Brown: State Secondary
Harriet Harman: Private/Public School
Ed Miliband: Comprehensive School
Jeremy Corbyn: Grammar School
So 7:3 for the State, though really its 5:3, as Beckett and Harman were only stand-in leaders.
So the Labour Leadership owes more to the private school sector than Conservatives. I know there is a distinction between the Public Schools and Private Schools.
If anything, Iain Duncan Smith is the example of someone who pulled themselves up by their bootstraps. He father was a used car salesman turned RAF fighter ace. Went straight into the army from school. Attended Secondary Modern for 4 years; when I was young, the secondary moderns were where you went if you couldn't get into Grammar School or a Comprehensive. Remarkably, like Jim Callahagn, never completed a university degree, though he claims to have signed up for some courses in Italy. Possibly the lack of a higher education affected him in his later career.
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