Poll: Election 2019
Total Members Polled: 1601
Discussion
Well, the Simon Wiesenthal Centre has named Our Jeremy planet Earth's leading anti Semite - https://twitter.com/simonwiesenthal/status/1203450...
That's not a great look for him.
That's not a great look for him.
williamp said:
Regarding the polls, has anyone evr been asked?
Its a bit like family fortunes "we asked 100 people..." well when? How? Who?
I hVe never been asked something I take to the kitchen, and never asked who I will vote for. Is anyone part of these polls?
Good question. Polls are supposedly based on a 'representative sample' of voters.Its a bit like family fortunes "we asked 100 people..." well when? How? Who?
I hVe never been asked something I take to the kitchen, and never asked who I will vote for. Is anyone part of these polls?
The fact they consistently get it wrong ought to tell you everything you need to know.
I had an interesting chat with a Labour canvasser at lunchtime on Saturday...
His main message (reading between the lines) was that you don't need to worry about Corbyn because he'll be gone soon. The main thrust of his argument was that a vote for the Labour is a vote for the local candidate. He keep reiterating that if you vote Labour, you're not voting for Corbyn but for your local candidate.
Found his attitude very interesting - I've never known a party try to distance itself from the leader less than a week before the election. When I pointed this out to him he seemed resigned to a Conservative majority.
To, me whether he spoke the truth or not is irrelevant. The very fact that he was dismissive of Corbyn speaks volumes.
Still, he was a reasonable bloke (shook his hand as he left - descending to abuse because you disagree with someone is the hallmark of Momentum, and I try not to descend to that level) and I enjoyed a chat with someone who is far removed from where I stand politically.
His main message (reading between the lines) was that you don't need to worry about Corbyn because he'll be gone soon. The main thrust of his argument was that a vote for the Labour is a vote for the local candidate. He keep reiterating that if you vote Labour, you're not voting for Corbyn but for your local candidate.
Found his attitude very interesting - I've never known a party try to distance itself from the leader less than a week before the election. When I pointed this out to him he seemed resigned to a Conservative majority.
To, me whether he spoke the truth or not is irrelevant. The very fact that he was dismissive of Corbyn speaks volumes.
Still, he was a reasonable bloke (shook his hand as he left - descending to abuse because you disagree with someone is the hallmark of Momentum, and I try not to descend to that level) and I enjoyed a chat with someone who is far removed from where I stand politically.
Johnnytheboy said:
Helicopter123 said:
Easy words to say on a forum with a anonymity, could even be true.
But how many have the posters up in windows, signs in the Garden, proclaiming support for the Tories or Labour?
Very few I would venture.
They tend to get vandalised: people on the left tend to be quite destructive. But how many have the posters up in windows, signs in the Garden, proclaiming support for the Tories or Labour?
Very few I would venture.
Can't remember the last time I saw a vandalised Labour sign.
Put a Conservative poster up and you are asking for a brick through your window.
FiF said:
Polls are all over the place. Utterly bewildering.
Wrexham been in Labour hands since 1931
Conservative 44%
Labour 29%
Plaid 10%
Green 2%
Survation Nov 27-30
Yet national polls suggest that the prediction should be either small Con majority most likely whilst a hung parliament is still plausible.
Then you look at numbers like those above. Either national polls are twaddle, or we are about to see something truly historical, or they're generally not far off but with s few outliers and surprises on the night.
Which is a long winded way of saying Christ only knows, I certainly don't.
My postal vote is in, waste of time, mega safe Tory lately.
I think the issue is threefold.Wrexham been in Labour hands since 1931
Conservative 44%
Labour 29%
Plaid 10%
- Brexit Party 9%
Green 2%
Survation Nov 27-30
Yet national polls suggest that the prediction should be either small Con majority most likely whilst a hung parliament is still plausible.
Then you look at numbers like those above. Either national polls are twaddle, or we are about to see something truly historical, or they're generally not far off but with s few outliers and surprises on the night.
Which is a long winded way of saying Christ only knows, I certainly don't.
My postal vote is in, waste of time, mega safe Tory lately.
Firstly the seats the Tories will be losing and so they need to gain 10-15 seats to stand still.
Secondly the fact that national poll figures of, say, 43% may mean they are piling up supermajorities in their own seats and only being more competitive in many Labour held seats.
Finally the issue of tactical voting.
williamp said:
Regarding the polls, has anyone evr been asked?
Its a bit like family fortunes "we asked 100 people..." well when? How? Who?
I hVe never been asked something I take to the kitchen, and never asked who I will vote for. Is anyone part of these polls?
Yes, I think I mentioned earlier in the thread that I've been doing the Yougov one. Latest was for Friday nights leaders debate. Got a very small amount of money for taking part too .Its a bit like family fortunes "we asked 100 people..." well when? How? Who?
I hVe never been asked something I take to the kitchen, and never asked who I will vote for. Is anyone part of these polls?
Edited by hoagypubdog on Sunday 8th December 07:01
JagLover said:
Johnnytheboy said:
Helicopter123 said:
Easy words to say on a forum with a anonymity, could even be true.
But how many have the posters up in windows, signs in the Garden, proclaiming support for the Tories or Labour?
Very few I would venture.
They tend to get vandalised: people on the left tend to be quite destructive. But how many have the posters up in windows, signs in the Garden, proclaiming support for the Tories or Labour?
Very few I would venture.
Can't remember the last time I saw a vandalised Labour sign.
Put a Conservative poster up and you are asking for a brick through your window.
https://www.lep.co.uk/news/crime/40-vote-labour-si...
https://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/18086403.is-w...
Mobile Chicane said:
Odd.
Locally I see Labour Party canvassers resolutely behind Corbyn.
Labour can't win here - polling third behind the LibDems - but local support is absolutely for Jeremy Corbyn and his transformative agenda.
Corbyn’s agenda is certainly transformative, of that there cannot possibly be any doubt!Locally I see Labour Party canvassers resolutely behind Corbyn.
Labour can't win here - polling third behind the LibDems - but local support is absolutely for Jeremy Corbyn and his transformative agenda.
Garvin said:
Mobile Chicane said:
Odd.
Locally I see Labour Party canvassers resolutely behind Corbyn.
Labour can't win here - polling third behind the LibDems - but local support is absolutely for Jeremy Corbyn and his transformative agenda.
Corbyn’s agenda is certainly transformative, of that there cannot possibly be any doubt!Locally I see Labour Party canvassers resolutely behind Corbyn.
Labour can't win here - polling third behind the LibDems - but local support is absolutely for Jeremy Corbyn and his transformative agenda.
El stovey said:
Whilst a 10 point lead seems to be stable, what does that translate into seats? Or more specifically majority? I remember pulling at 40% was the magic number once, before 'going to the country'. But that was back in the days of pretty much a two horse race.Tyre Smoke said:
Whilst a 10 point lead seems to be stable, what does that translate into seats? Or more specifically majority? I remember pulling at 40% was the magic number once, before 'going to the country'. But that was back in the days of pretty much a two horse race.
Seems difficult to predict with different methods and models being used but yougov think
Explanation here plus local seat predictions
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/
I think it’s 326 or so for a majority.
Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 8th December 07:59
JagLover said:
Garvin said:
Mobile Chicane said:
Odd.
Locally I see Labour Party canvassers resolutely behind Corbyn.
Labour can't win here - polling third behind the LibDems - but local support is absolutely for Jeremy Corbyn and his transformative agenda.
Corbyn’s agenda is certainly transformative, of that there cannot possibly be any doubt!Locally I see Labour Party canvassers resolutely behind Corbyn.
Labour can't win here - polling third behind the LibDems - but local support is absolutely for Jeremy Corbyn and his transformative agenda.
Tyre Smoke said:
Whilst a 10 point lead seems to be stable, what does that translate into seats? Or more specifically majority? I remember pulling at 40% was the magic number once, before 'going to the country'. But that was back in the days of pretty much a two horse race.
Impossible to say from broad brush strokes polls like that. You need very focused polling in lots of seats, probably 100 of the tightest majority seats to work it out. Not sure if anyone has done such a thing yet? Tony427 said:
Just to recap.
This is a Brexit election.
During the referendum 406 constituencies voted to Leave and 242 voted to Remain. I would hazard a guess that very, very few voters have changed their mind. This will be reflected in the election. Anyone see the Channel 4 Focus group where 9 previous Labour voters all said it would now be Boris. That is being repeated across the Leave voting, previously Labour voting, heartlands.
Comments from ex-Labour voters in focus groups over at Lord Ashcroft Polls say the same thing.This is a Brexit election.
During the referendum 406 constituencies voted to Leave and 242 voted to Remain. I would hazard a guess that very, very few voters have changed their mind. This will be reflected in the election. Anyone see the Channel 4 Focus group where 9 previous Labour voters all said it would now be Boris. That is being repeated across the Leave voting, previously Labour voting, heartlands.
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