Election 2019

[JagLover]

JuanCarlosFandango said:

Captain Raymond Holt said:

Id put £20 on there be a majority but not more than a 22 seat one.

This iw a real danger too IMO. It might be hard to imagine any Tories backsliding on Brexit after this campaign but give it a few months, some difficult negotiations and the prospect of a dozen Tory remainers siding with the opposition to block leaving or tie the government's hands in negotiations and we are back to square one

There are no doubt a few hardcore Tory remainers left, but there is a WA on the table now and they have all sworn to back it. So any games they would be playing would be in the transition period, not while we were still in.

[Dont like rolls]

jsf said:

Dont like rolls said:

Fantastic photo that. The certainty of youth on the faces and body language in the foreground, the i know what's coming, oh crap, of the more mature in the background.

Ahhh, the certainty of youth, until.............

[Gecko1978]

El stovey said:

uk66fastback said:

Angela Rayner is a nightmare, just her voice is enough to get me riled. After Friday, when Labour doesn't get the result they crave, I hope they do have some kind of inward-looking revolt ... and wonder how they let themselves become such a different party in such a short time. As Sir John Custice said on Marr this morning, they're not the party of the working class, they're the party of the young. Too young to remember the last left-wing mob who were in (or tried to be).

It’s mainly about momentum’s influence isn’t it? And maybe like brexit, a sign that traditional politics aren’t working for a lot of people.

I wouldn’t vote for labour because I’ve got a good job and think both I and the county will be worse off under them. If you’re a young student or someone feeling left behind maybe they look a more attractive option.

However badly Corbyn is viewed on here, his hard left message is resonating with a large number of people. Ignoring them and dismissing them as freeloaders and jealous grasping lefties is as unwise as saying brexiters are thick racists.


Both Corbyn and Boris are pretty unpopular though and hopefully in future elections more people will have some positive options than just trying to decide on the least worst option. I certainly don’t think I’ve seen a more miserable and negative election in my lifetime. Both main parties seem to just be saying “you might not like me but they’re even worse”

Then whoever actually wins still has to sort out brexit which is going to go on for ages yet.

I am not so sure of this "feeling of left behind" I think its more changing social attitudes in the young and their lifestyle choices. My sample of 1 (limited I know) you lady at work 25. Does not own a home an has often said she never will etc. I had some consultancy work IT stuff, I could do it myself but had a lot on so offered it to her 5 evenings work £1000 fixed outcome. I said if it works out we can see if there are more options.

Next day we sit down to go over it, she is hung over night before party, she has mentioned seeing friends in the week. An hour in she says she is not sure she can do it etc etc. I point out its easy offer to flex the time line etc. But no.

SO it tells me they want the same outcome but they value other things more so. When life throws you a line you can choose to take it or not but whinging that its not faire, too costly, your left behind etc really does seem like a code for "I would rather do X or Y but can I get same as you anyway".

Labour can promise whatever they like but don't be deluded in thinking they will ever deliver it. I actually hope BOJO gets in and over 5 years goes back on much of his spending. Austerity is a good thing. Investment is also a good thing the two should live hand in hand.

[Carl_Manchester]

El stovey said:

This is their info about how their model works.

Thanks El. Looks like they are re-using their tech from 2017.

[Digga]

Gecko1978 said:

El stovey said:

uk66fastback said:

Angela Rayner is a nightmare, just her voice is enough to get me riled. After Friday, when Labour doesn't get the result they crave, I hope they do have some kind of inward-looking revolt ... and wonder how they let themselves become such a different party in such a short time. As Sir John Custice said on Marr this morning, they're not the party of the working class, they're the party of the young. Too young to remember the last left-wing mob who were in (or tried to be).

It’s mainly about momentum’s influence isn’t it? And maybe like brexit, a sign that traditional politics aren’t working for a lot of people.

I wouldn’t vote for labour because I’ve got a good job and think both I and the county will be worse off under them. If you’re a young student or someone feeling left behind maybe they look a more attractive option.

However badly Corbyn is viewed on here, his hard left message is resonating with a large number of people. Ignoring them and dismissing them as freeloaders and jealous grasping lefties is as unwise as saying brexiters are thick racists.


Both Corbyn and Boris are pretty unpopular though and hopefully in future elections more people will have some positive options than just trying to decide on the least worst option. I certainly don’t think I’ve seen a more miserable and negative election in my lifetime. Both main parties seem to just be saying “you might not like me but they’re even worse”

Then whoever actually wins still has to sort out brexit which is going to go on for ages yet.

I am not so sure of this "feeling of left behind" I think its more changing social attitudes in the young and their lifestyle choices. My sample of 1 (limited I know) you lady at work 25. Does not own a home an has often said she never will etc. I had some consultancy work IT stuff, I could do it myself but had a lot on so offered it to her 5 evenings work £1000 fixed outcome. I said if it works out we can see if there are more options.

Next day we sit down to go over it, she is hung over night before party, she has mentioned seeing friends in the week. An hour in she says she is not sure she can do it etc etc. I point out its easy offer to flex the time line etc. But no.

SO it tells me they want the same outcome but they value other things more so. When life throws you a line you can choose to take it or not but whinging that its not faire, too costly, your left behind etc really does seem like a code for "I would rather do X or Y but can I get same as you anyway".

Labour can promise whatever they like but don't be deluded in thinking they will ever deliver it. I actually hope BOJO gets in and over 5 years goes back on much of his spending. Austerity is a good thing. Investment is also a good thing the two should live hand in hand.

There are some unfair, sweeping generalisations of millennials. The truth is always much more complex, but I think it fair to say there are some very different attitudes which were much rarer in the past.

There have always been those who think the world owes them a living, but the contemporary attitude is much more than that. I think they are looking at systems of values from a different starting point and with different logic. Not all of it is 'wrong'.

[FiF]

El stovey said:

I wondered why the conservatives were only 10 (or whatever) points ahead of Corbyn and McDonnell. Thinking labour are such a bad option that they should be much more behind than that.

Looking back at previous elections though

2017 conservatives 42.4% labour 40.0% SNP 3.0%
2015 conservatives 36.9% labour 30.4%
2012 conservatives 36.1% labour 29.0% libdems 23.0%

10-11-12 points is actually a massive lead if accurate.

Even in Tony Blair’s “landslide” 1997 victory it was

Labour 43.2% conservatives 30.7% libdems 16.8%

Rumour has it that a significant part of the recent Labour 'closing the gap' has been down to London region responses. Outside in the rest of the country it's a completely different story, Labour campaigners in Midlands reporting they've never known canvassing to be so dispiriting.

Who knows, I'll listen to John Curtice at 10pm on Thursday for the first real steer.

[Gecko1978]

Digga said:

here are some unfair, sweeping generalisations of millennials. The truth is always much more complex, but I think it fair to say there are some very different attitudes which were much rarer in the past.

There have always been those who think the world owes them a living, but the contemporary attitude is much more than that. I think they are looking at systems of values from a different starting point and with different logic. Not all of it is 'wrong'.

I 100% agree with you, they are putting a value of things in a different way. This is a valid choice, at 25 I was working at a big Suisse bank 70 hour week no social bar drinks with colleagues etc. It was soul destroying at times....it paid deposit on first home etc when rates were 5.5 base plus banks margin. I could not afford Sky, a fancy phone (would have been a Motorola then I guess Razor thing), a nice car (or a car at all) and I did not go out because I was working.

Young people today have choices and I am happy for them to make them, but one choice will result in a different outcome to another. So when said sample of one says houses are so expensive and she had no money, its a choice she made. Does not change the reality but I a not sure I want to support the outcome she desires without change on her part too.

[JuanCarlosFandango]

JagLover said:

There are no doubt a few hardcore Tory remainers left, but there is a WA on the table now and they have all sworn to back it. So any games they would be playing would be in the transition period, not while we were still in.

There's a lot to play for in the transition period.

The plan so far appears to be implement the WA then negotiate a comprehensive FTA ready to be signed about this time next year, presumably taking effect in 2021. That really isn't going to happen. At best with a strong majority we can probably agree and implement a FTA by the end of the coming parliament in the mid 2020s.

If Boris is trying to do that knowing that a dozen MPs could throw the whole thing out and, in conjunction with opposition parties start applying all kinds of conditions and demands for a second referendum then we could just have years more chaos and uncertainty.

IMO he needs to win by 30 seats plus to really breathe easy. Under this he needs to get the more sensible Labour figures onside to get a deal with broad support from the whole country. Something he should aim for anyway.

[djohnson]

Mrr T said:

El stovey said:

I wondered why the conservatives were only 10 (or whatever) points ahead of Corbyn and McDonnell. Thinking labour are such a bad option that they should be much more behind than that.

Looking back at previous elections though

2017 conservatives 42.4% labour 40.0% SNP 3.0%
2015 conservatives 36.9% labour 30.4%
2012 conservatives 36.1% labour 29.0% libdems 23.0%

10-11-12 points is actually a massive lead if accurate.

Even in Tony Blair’s “landslide” 1997 victory it was

Labour 43.2% conservatives 30.7% libdems 16.8%

It's not. TM decision to go to the polls in 2017 and not get a majority means the boundary review was never passed. So a 5/7% lead for the tory can still see them lose.

Redrawing then boundaries is long overdue and needs to be passed to stop Labour’s current downhill run.

[djohnson]

hutchst said:

El stovey said:

I wondered why the conservatives were only 10 (or whatever) points ahead of Corbyn and McDonnell. Thinking labour are such a bad option that they should be much more behind than that.

Looking back at previous elections though

2017 conservatives 42.4% labour 40.0% SNP 3.0%
2015 conservatives 36.9% labour 30.4%
2012 conservatives 36.1% labour 29.0% libdems 23.0%

10-11-12 points is actually a massive lead if accurate.

Even in Tony Blair’s “landslide” 1997 victory it was

Labour 43.2% conservatives 30.7% libdems 16.8%

And who could ever forget that shock result in 2012?

I have to admit I think I missed the 2012 election.

[Smollet]

djohnson said:

I have to admit I think I missed the 2012 election.

Same here.

[FiF]

Just to point out something, remember that BMG poll that certain suspects were crowing about as the lead was down to 6%, yes? Well the lead is back to 9, same pollster.

Still not a ball busting lead but the feel on the ground is something else.

[Fallingup]

I have no idea who to vote for this time. I'm a Scot, living in Scotland. I don't want Brexit and I don't want Independence. I could vote SNP and then vote against independence if a referendum came about. But I don't like the thought of any deals with Labour, who I have no truck with. I don't see the lib dems as being qualified to run the country and the conservatives would seem a safe vote but I think Boris is just full of ste. Added to this is my deep distaste to any politicians and the westminster government. I just don't know. I suspect many around where I live will vote for the local mp because they like him/her and will not bother with the bigger issues. And the rest will not vote at all . I am not convinced by any of them.

[Mannginger]

I've decided that I'm not going to vote this time.

I've voted Tory all my life but don't really want to this time. Labour is a straight "no" especially under this current lot. Lib Dems would have got my vote apart from the repeal A50 main headline.

So I can't come off the fence between blue and yellow. I think my seat (Kingston and Surbiton) will be safely yellow under Ed Davey, he's decent enough so I think I'm happy staying that way

[uk66fastback]

uk66fastback said:

Gecko1978 said:

Digga said:

here are some unfair, sweeping generalisations of millennials. The truth is always much more complex, but I think it fair to say there are some very different attitudes which were much rarer in the past.

There have always been those who think the world owes them a living, but the contemporary attitude is much more than that. I think they are looking at systems of values from a different starting point and with different logic. Not all of it is 'wrong'.

I 100% agree with you, they are putting a value of things in a different way. This is a valid choice, at 25 I was working at a big Suisse bank 70 hour week no social bar drinks with colleagues etc. It was soul destroying at times....it paid deposit on first home etc when rates were 5.5 base plus banks margin. I could not afford Sky, a fancy phone (would have been a Motorola then I guess Razor thing), a nice car (or a car at all) and I did not go out because I was working.

Young people today have choices and I am happy for them to make them, but one choice will result in a different outcome to another. So when said sample of one says houses are so expensive and she had no money, its a choice she made. Does not change the reality but I a not sure I want to support the outcome she desires without change on her part too.

Apparently the young of today want 'experiences' not 'possessions' ... they don't want to have a ste phone, not go out to eat three times a week and shop in Primark while saving for a deposit ... they'll go on an all-in three week travelfest in Thailand instead (probably while living at home and paying SFA)

[pingu393]

Mannginger said:

I've decided that I'm not going to vote this time.

I've voted Tory all my life but don't really want to this time. Labour is a straight "no" especially under this current lot. Lib Dems would have got my vote apart from the repeal A50 main headline.

So I can't come off the fence between blue and yellow. I think my seat (Kingston and Surbiton) will be safely yellow under Ed Davey, he's decent enough so I think I'm happy staying that way

I never like to encourage anyone to vote for Corbyn, but if you are on the fence and undecided about everything, he is the obvious choice.

Just a thought, is that a subliminal deliberate stance from Corby? He is undecided on everything, so anyone who is undecided have a natural bedfellow.

[hutchst]

We will never sign 'a FTA' either during the transition period, or at any other time.

But we will sign a number of separate agreements, some during transition and some after, based on level of priority.

The result will be that most people will hardly notice any change. There will be some winners, and some losers (who will be given a high degree of prominence in the media). And a lot of people will just do stuff a bit differently.

[Johnnytheboy]

Mannginger said:

I've decided that I'm not going to vote this time.

I've voted Tory all my life but don't really want to this time. Labour is a straight "no" especially under this current lot. Lib Dems would have got my vote apart from the repeal A50 main headline.

So I can't come off the fence between blue and yellow. I think my seat (Kingston and Surbiton) will be safely yellow under Ed Davey, he's decent enough so I think I'm happy staying that way

I think you've done the right thing. People who can't really make their mind up then voting anyway determine the outcome of elections, bizarrely.

[hutchst]

Fallingup said:

I have no idea who to vote for this time. I'm a Scot, living in Scotland. I don't want Brexit and I don't want Independence. I could vote SNP and then vote against independence if a referendum came about. But I don't like the thought of any deals with Labour, who I have no truck with. I don't see the lib dems as being qualified to run the country and the conservatives would seem a safe vote but I think Boris is just full of ste. Added to this is my deep distaste to any politicians and the westminster government. I just don't know. I suspect many around where I live will vote for the local mp because they like him/her and will not bother with the bigger issues. And the rest will not vote at all . I am not convinced by any of them.

Voting Conservative isn't voting for Boris, unless you live in Uxbridge.

We dont have an executive President in the UK, our Prime Minister has NO executive power under our constitution. He gets one vote in the commons, same as every other MP, and he chairs cabinet meetings. That's it. He is just the bloke the Conservative party has selected as its leader for the time being. But they could change that tomorrow. And again next week. And the week after. The 'personalisation' of politics in the UK is a recent media construct to generate headlines out of nothing, and it is distorting politics here for the gullible. It is also a large cause of the inability of modern-day polls to predict the outcome of any election.

[Zirconia]

Mannginger said:

I've decided that I'm not going to vote this time.

I've voted Tory all my life but don't really want to this time. Labour is a straight "no" especially under this current lot. Lib Dems would have got my vote apart from the repeal A50 main headline.

So I can't come off the fence between blue and yellow. I think my seat (Kingston and Surbiton) will be safely yellow under Ed Davey, he's decent enough so I think I'm happy staying that way

Spoiled paper if no vote perhaps?

Not aimed at you but it is a pity that the more people that do no have a party they can lend their x to, that they spoil papers (I know, it is up to the voter what they do). They do get counted even if they count for sod all. It would be great that the number of spoiled papers exceed a win.

Small things and all that, maybe compulsory voting with "none of the above" as an option.