Election 2019

[FN2TypeR]

R Mutt said:

Very much like their manifesto

• Cancel Brexit
• Something else

Amazing that they feel the need to print and post so much bumf given that they have very little or worth to say, their campaign has been a disaster,

[tim0409]

YouGov MRP poll due out at 10pm....I’m going to make a guess that their last poll’s prediction of a 68 majority will be down to 30 (+/-).....

[StanleyT]

R Mutt said:

scottydoesntknow said:

Meanwhile in Glasgow.

Very much like their manifesto

• Cancel Brexit
• Something else

2 Swinson gets norks out on BBC TV 9pm Weds News programme? I've a Scottish colleague whom was at uni with her and he thinks this may be a potential, got a fiver each way on it at the bookies so plenty people taking strange odds!

[R Mutt]

I would happily lose the fiver to see them

[FiF]

[FN2TypeR]

tim0409 said:

YouGov MRP poll due out at 10pm....I’m going to make a guess that their last poll’s prediction of a 68 majority will be down to 30 (+/-).....

Twitter rumours said thirty, not sure on how reliable the source is/was, however

[Johnnytheboy]

People keep muttering about the weather affecting turnout, but my gut feeling is poor weather would favour the Tories, as their core vote seem to have a higher propensity for getting their arse in gear and going to vote.

I wonder if there is any data on this?

[tim0409]

FN2TypeR said:

tim0409 said:

YouGov MRP poll due out at 10pm....I’m going to make a guess that their last poll’s prediction of a 68 majority will be down to 30 (+/-).....

Twitter rumours said thirty, not sure on how reliable the source is/was, however

Down to 28...I wasn’t too far away

[Johnnytheboy]

FN2TypeR said:

tim0409 said:

YouGov MRP poll due out at 10pm....I’m going to make a guess that their last poll’s prediction of a 68 majority will be down to 30 (+/-).....

Twitter rumours said thirty, not sure on how reliable the source is/was, however

https://order-order.com/2019/12/10/2nd-yougov-mrp-poll-halves-projected-tory-majority/

30, apparently.

[Gecko1978]

R Mutt said:

I would happily lose the fiver to see them

put me down for a fiver too, Techie Dave an have the Abbott I am deffo Team Swinson....Just not for voting

[R Mutt]

biggbn said:

Some of my favourite books, Josef Conrad's 'Heart of Darkness' and Harper Lee's 'To kill a mockingbird' have racially inflamatory words and images in them but they are integral to the plot and illustrate the historic period the works are set. I do not think Johnson has the excuse of historicity but he may have the excuse of plot. If however, they are just casually used as descriptors in a narrative fashion, I cannot see why he would choose to use them. But, again, this is conjecture and as tempting as it is to play the man rather than the ball, I would rather find more out and give it some thought.

Many would refuse to distinguish between the views of the characters, the author, and reader.

Of course as was joked by another poster, the only value in dissecting the character is in a English Literature class while the author is open to greater scrutiny and the reader to a lesser extent. Fortunately I have no desire to read Mein Kampf as obviously non-fiction projects the evils of the subject (and in an autobiographical context, the evils of the author) more directly on to the reader. I gave up reading Maggie's on the train and not just because it was quite a cumbersome hardback.

It's not just in the context either as offence is the prerogative of the victim and with objectivity out of the window you can choose your own villains too. The many people who have been demonised or sacked or no-platformed for simply referencing the bad thing/ word is often defensive PR, but is just as often political.

Edited by R Mutt on Tuesday 10th December 22:05

[FN2TypeR]

FN2TypeR said:

tim0409 said:

YouGov MRP poll due out at 10pm....I’m going to make a guess that their last poll’s prediction of a 68 majority will be down to 30 (+/-).....

Twitter rumours said thirty, not sure on how reliable the source is/was, however

[Helicopter123]

FN2TypeR said:

FN2TypeR said:

tim0409 said:

YouGov MRP poll due out at 10pm....I’m going to make a guess that their last poll’s prediction of a 68 majority will be down to 30 (+/-).....

Twitter rumours said thirty, not sure on how reliable the source is/was, however

Squeaky bum time.

[ChocolateFrog]

Johnnytheboy said:

People keep muttering about the weather affecting turnout, but my gut feeling is poor weather would favour the Tories, as their core vote seem to have a higher propensity for getting their arse in gear and going to vote.

I wonder if there is any data on this?

Seems plausible.

[2Btoo]

Helicopter123 said:

Squeaky bum time.

Agreed. All a bit too close for comfort.

[djc206]

V6 Pushfit said:

... that was 338 for Conservative

That’s nowhere near “conclusive”. 326 needed for an overall majority, practically 320 due to the speaker/deputies and Sinn Fein. That’s a wafer thin majority given how inaccurate the polls have proven in the last few years.

[tim0409]

ChocolateFrog said:

Johnnytheboy said:

People keep muttering about the weather affecting turnout, but my gut feeling is poor weather would favour the Tories, as their core vote seem to have a higher propensity for getting their arse in gear and going to vote.

I wonder if there is any data on this?

Seems plausible.

I think this was true in days gone by where the Labour vote was suppressed by bad weather as car ownership was lower, but I’m not sure it still holds true; I think there will be committed voters on both sides in this election, although I can say from experience that my local Tory party has quite a sophisticated operation for making sure their elderly and infirm voters get driven to the polling station.

[anonymous-user]

R Mutt said:

biggbn said:

Some of my favourite books, Josef Conrad's 'Heart of Darkness' and Harper Lee's 'To kill a mockingbird' have racially inflamatory words and images in them but they are integral to the plot and illustrate the historic period the works are set. I do not think Johnson has the excuse of historicity but he may have the excuse of plot. If however, they are just casually used as descriptors in a narrative fashion, I cannot see why he would choose to use them. But, again, this is conjecture and as tempting as it is to play the man rather than the ball, I would rather find more out and give it some thought.

Many would refuse to distinguish between the views of the characters, the author, and reader.

Of course as was joked by another poster, the only value in dissecting the character is in a English Literature class while the author is open to greater scrutiny and the reader to a lesser extent. Fortunately I have no desire to read Mein Kampf as obviously non-fiction projects the evils of the subject (and in an autobiographical context, the evils of the author) more directly on to the reader. I gave up reading Maggie's on the train and not just because it was quite a cumbersome hardback.

It's not just in the context either as offence is the prerogative of the victim and with objectivity out of the window you can choose your own villains too. The many people who have been demonised or sacked or no-platformed for simply referencing the bad thing/ word is often defensive PR, but is just as often political.

Edited by R Mutt on Tuesday 10th December 22:05

I’m sure you two are great chaps in real life.

[R Mutt]

tim0409 said:

I think this was true in days gone by where the Labour vote was suppressed by bad weather as car ownership was lower, but I’m not sure it still holds true; I think there will be committed voters on both sides in this election, although I can say from experience that my local Tory party has quite a sophisticated operation for making sure their elderly and infirm voters get driven to the polling station.

There were a lot of free pints etc. offered to the youth who can prove they have just registered to vote.

I did think of offering free lifts to the elderly to highlight to those behind such offers just how transparent this is in its bias.

[rscott]

FN2TypeR said:

FN2TypeR said:

tim0409 said:

YouGov MRP poll due out at 10pm....I’m going to make a guess that their last poll’s prediction of a 68 majority will be down to 30 (+/-).....

Twitter rumours said thirty, not sure on how reliable the source is/was, however

http://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservatives-set-for-majority-but-race-has-tightened-significantly-poll-11883389

Predicting a 28 majority, but margin of error puts Conservatives at anything from 311 to 367.

Interesting times....