How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 12)
Discussion
Lord Marylebone said:
I don’t think that fully takes into account the wishes of the ordinary Northern Irish people.
I was listening to Northern Irish commentators on the radio this morning and they say the main reason the GFA managed to calm things down is that it allowed the Northern Irish people to feel Irish if they wanted to feel Irish and to feel British if they want to feel British.
If they could class themselves as feeling both Irish and British if they want.
The issue we will have going forward is that we will likely drift away from the regulatory alignment and suchlike that exists in Ireland and NI, leading to the citizens of Northern Ireland feeling ‘separated from Britain’, which apparently will inevitably lead to problems.
Hopefully not, but we will see.
I don't disagree with any of that but, with respect, events have rendered the analysis largely irrelevant. I was listening to Northern Irish commentators on the radio this morning and they say the main reason the GFA managed to calm things down is that it allowed the Northern Irish people to feel Irish if they wanted to feel Irish and to feel British if they want to feel British.
If they could class themselves as feeling both Irish and British if they want.
The issue we will have going forward is that we will likely drift away from the regulatory alignment and suchlike that exists in Ireland and NI, leading to the citizens of Northern Ireland feeling ‘separated from Britain’, which apparently will inevitably lead to problems.
Hopefully not, but we will see.
Nobody is now going to make much progress with the GFA now because the thugs will have seen how ludicrously easy it is get politicians to cave simply by uttering threats, and will have drawn the appropriate conclusions. And I'm not singling out one brand of thugs or another.
That toothpaste can't be put back in the tube.
psi310398 said:
Stay in Bed Instead said:
I believe Boris voted against May's WA at one point.
I might be mistaken, but ISTR that May did not 3L whip all of the WA votes for fear of being challenged to act if MPs rebelled. But, if he did rebel on a 3L he should have had the whip withdrawn. I don't think he rebelled while a minister, did he?Burwood said:
psi310398 said:
Stay in Bed Instead said:
I believe Boris voted against May's WA at one point.
I might be mistaken, but ISTR that May did not 3L whip all of the WA votes for fear of being challenged to act if MPs rebelled. But, if he did rebel on a 3L he should have had the whip withdrawn. I don't think he rebelled while a minister, did he?Troubleatmill said:
p1stonhead said:
Sway said:
Stay in Bed Instead said:
p1stonhead said:
Boris has apparently (just hearing on the radio) said anyone who votes down his deal is sacked.
It’ll be interesting certainly!
He's quite a bully really.It’ll be interesting certainly!
If he was employing these people they would no doubt register a complaint against him.
Set's Boris up quite nicely for a GE.
Meanwhile we know what the narrative from Remainers will be, hooting and hollering about any concessions, however small, as if they're cast iron proof of something. Yet the adults in the room have known for 3+ years that in the end compromises would be required, in fact some argued it before the vote as part of the campaign. Unfortunately the kidults at each end of the spectrum just continually floated out their tiresome and unhelpful "No surrender" tribalistic hollyhocks about unicorns and cake, not to mention traitors and quisling accusations heading in the other direction.
Still going on today, no doubt we will get the Referendum arguments thrashed out again this afternoon too, ignoring the reality of "We are where we are, none of us wanted to be here, but we are, so let's get whatever done in the best interests of the nation as a whole recognising that the other side has their interests too."
JNW1 said:
You're right, we don't yet know the detail of a deal or indeed whether there'll even be one. However, assuming there is, my guess is it will be only a mildly tweaked version of Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement; the backstop may be replaced by something else now Boris is no longer reliant on DUP votes for a working majority but the rest will, I suspect, look very much like what TM came back with (i.e. pretty poor from a UK perspective).
However, assuming a deal is done, the question is whether a majority in Parliament will actually vote for it; wouldn't put money on that myself....
If it does come to being Mays deal then the Tories are finished.However, assuming a deal is done, the question is whether a majority in Parliament will actually vote for it; wouldn't put money on that myself....
It has to be a deal that allows UK to do its own trade deals and set its own rules, anything less wont fly and the Brexit party will cause havoc in a GE.
Boris knows this, so i suspect its going to be a fudge for NI with rest of UK fully out, or no deal.
PositronicRay said:
It's the strong arm tactics, they just don't work.
If you can't sell it, it's because it's crap. (has anyone tried selling it yet)
That's not the case though is it. If you can't sell it perhaps some don't want to change a thing. It wouldn't matter what the deal was, Labour will try and thwart it, Lib Dem and some Conservatives, the same.If you can't sell it, it's because it's crap. (has anyone tried selling it yet)
It's down to the DUP. If they reject it them others will follow but if they accept it I believe the rebels will fall in line as they won't have a valid excuse (support DUP wishes)
Lord Marylebone said:
psi310398 said:
Lord Marylebone said:
I’m just not sure we have still managed to solve the Good Friday Agreement?
Whatever the outcome of Brexit, we clearly haven't, as we seem to have a cadre of politicians who s
t their pants the minute a group of organised criminals threaten to revert to terrorism if they don't get their way. I was listening to Northern Irish commentators on the radio this morning and they say the main reason the GFA managed to calm things down is that it allowed the Northern Irish people to feel Irish if they wanted to feel Irish and to feel British if they want to feel British.
They can class themselves as feeling both Irish and British if they want.
The issue we will have going forward is that we will likely drift away from the regulatory alignment and suchlike that exists in Ireland and NI, leading to the citizens of Northern Ireland feeling ‘separated from Britain’, which apparently will inevitably lead to problems.
Hopefully not, but we will see.
The NI border is ridiculously obvious, if only for the fireworks signs a few feet on one side of the line, but not the other.
Customs makes zero difference to that. Duties, Laws, Taxes, Currency - all different.
Sway said:
Lord Marylebone said:
psi310398 said:
Lord Marylebone said:
I’m just not sure we have still managed to solve the Good Friday Agreement?
Whatever the outcome of Brexit, we clearly haven't, as we seem to have a cadre of politicians who st their pants the minute a group of organised criminals threaten to revert to terrorism if they don't get their way. I was listening to Northern Irish commentators on the radio this morning and they say the main reason the GFA managed to calm things down is that it allowed the Northern Irish people to feel Irish if they wanted to feel Irish and to feel British if they want to feel British.
They can class themselves as feeling both Irish and British if they want.
The issue we will have going forward is that we will likely drift away from the regulatory alignment and suchlike that exists in Ireland and NI, leading to the citizens of Northern Ireland feeling ‘separated from Britain’, which apparently will inevitably lead to problems.
Hopefully not, but we will see.
The NI border is ridiculously obvious, if only for the fireworks signs a few feet on one side of the line, but not the other.
Customs makes zero difference to that. Duties, Laws, Taxes, Currency - all different.
Helicopter123 said:
It’s not for public consumption, sorry.
It has proven to be very accurate thus far.
Turns out Helicopter's news source is Tom Newton Dunn from the Sun. It has proven to be very accurate thus far.
Yup. The 'secret' and 'not for public consumption' news source is the Sun.
Also turns out Tom Newton Dunn misunderstood a quote he was given and 'ran with it'. He thought a comment about May's deal was referring to Boris' deal (the one no-one has seen yet). Oh dear. What a pity. How sad.
Burwood said:
PositronicRay said:
It's the strong arm tactics, they just don't work.
If you can't sell it, it's because it's crap. (has anyone tried selling it yet)
That's not the case though is it. If you can't sell it perhaps some don't want to change a thing. It wouldn't matter what the deal was, Labour will try and thwart it, Lib Dem and some Conservatives, the same.If you can't sell it, it's because it's crap. (has anyone tried selling it yet)
It's down to the DUP. If they reject it them others will follow but if they accept it I believe the rebels will fall in line as they won't have a valid excuse (support DUP wishes)
Boris is known for his salesmanship and infectious enthusiasm, not in this instance though.
p1stonhead said:
Sway said:
Lord Marylebone said:
psi310398 said:
Lord Marylebone said:
I’m just not sure we have still managed to solve the Good Friday Agreement?
Whatever the outcome of Brexit, we clearly haven't, as we seem to have a cadre of politicians who st their pants the minute a group of organised criminals threaten to revert to terrorism if they don't get their way. I was listening to Northern Irish commentators on the radio this morning and they say the main reason the GFA managed to calm things down is that it allowed the Northern Irish people to feel Irish if they wanted to feel Irish and to feel British if they want to feel British.
They can class themselves as feeling both Irish and British if they want.
The issue we will have going forward is that we will likely drift away from the regulatory alignment and suchlike that exists in Ireland and NI, leading to the citizens of Northern Ireland feeling ‘separated from Britain’, which apparently will inevitably lead to problems.
Hopefully not, but we will see.
The NI border is ridiculously obvious, if only for the fireworks signs a few feet on one side of the line, but not the other.
Customs makes zero difference to that. Duties, Laws, Taxes, Currency - all different.
They've been at every crossing I've made, usually with a big lay-by with a hut full of explosives to load into your car...
jsf said:
JNW1 said:
You're right, we don't yet know the detail of a deal or indeed whether there'll even be one. However, assuming there is, my guess is it will be only a mildly tweaked version of Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement; the backstop may be replaced by something else now Boris is no longer reliant on DUP votes for a working majority but the rest will, I suspect, look very much like what TM came back with (i.e. pretty poor from a UK perspective).
However, assuming a deal is done, the question is whether a majority in Parliament will actually vote for it; wouldn't put money on that myself....
If it does come to being Mays deal then the Tories are finished.However, assuming a deal is done, the question is whether a majority in Parliament will actually vote for it; wouldn't put money on that myself....
It has to be a deal that allows UK to do its own trade deals and set its own rules, anything less wont fly and the Brexit party will cause havoc in a GE.
Boris knows this, so i suspect its going to be a fudge for NI with rest of UK fully out, or no deal.
JNW1 said:
I hope you're right as a slightly warmed-over version of TM's WA will still be a poor deal for the UK. It would surprise me slightly if the EU departed significantly from the terms of May's WA after a matter of only three or four days of negotiation but let's see.....
There hasn’t been any rumours to suggest it’s anything by TM’s deal but the border is now in the sea hence backstop is gone. If it’s fundamentally changed, everyone who has historically leaked every detail to the press before, has been remarkably tight lipped.
JNW1 said:
jsf said:
JNW1 said:
You're right, we don't yet know the detail of a deal or indeed whether there'll even be one. However, assuming there is, my guess is it will be only a mildly tweaked version of Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement; the backstop may be replaced by something else now Boris is no longer reliant on DUP votes for a working majority but the rest will, I suspect, look very much like what TM came back with (i.e. pretty poor from a UK perspective).
However, assuming a deal is done, the question is whether a majority in Parliament will actually vote for it; wouldn't put money on that myself....
If it does come to being Mays deal then the Tories are finished.However, assuming a deal is done, the question is whether a majority in Parliament will actually vote for it; wouldn't put money on that myself....
It has to be a deal that allows UK to do its own trade deals and set its own rules, anything less wont fly and the Brexit party will cause havoc in a GE.
Boris knows this, so i suspect its going to be a fudge for NI with rest of UK fully out, or no deal.
Agent May was a real gift to the EU - it was a major escape for us that she couldn't get that deal across the line. Thanks Gina, and thanks Parliament.
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