How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 12)
Discussion
One suspects this will be roundly derided given it’s via the BBC however the below, to this reader at least, paints quite an interesting picture of the confusion that currently pervades.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549
Brooking10 said:
One suspects this will be roundly derided given it’s via the BBC however the below, to this reader at least, paints quite an interesting picture of the confusion that currently pervades.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549
If we believe all that is in that story then there is no chance of 'extra democracy' as they won't want the plebs giving the wrong answer again. Far too close to call, in my opinion leave would win again.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549
FiF said:
Meanwhile we know what the narrative from Remainers will be, hooting and hollering about any concessions, however small, as if they're cast iron proof of something. Yet the adults in the room have known for 3+ years that in the end compromises would be required, in fact some argued it before the vote as part of the campaign. Unfortunately the kidults at each end of the spectrum just continually floated out their tiresome and unhelpful "No surrender" tribalistic hollyhocks about unicorns and cake, not to mention traitors and quisling accusations heading in the other direction.
Still going on today, no doubt we will get the Referendum arguments thrashed out again this afternoon too, ignoring the reality of "We are where we are, none of us wanted to be here, but we are, so let's get whatever done in the best interests of the nation as a whole recognising that the other side has their interests too."
100% agreed on this. There are "ulta's" on either end of the spectrum - but the remainers are seriously clutching at staws now. They are struggling to produce compelling arguments; and nearly every post is a desire for a deal NOT to happen (and excited about the machinations to bring this into place). I'd assume that BREXIT voting had some form of "normal" distribution (at the ends of the curve the range of motivating factors likely diminishing). If the distribution of votes is around the middle - surely a DEAL is the best way to honor the vote (seeing it was as close as gnats chuff)? I don't think this data would be available (given vote was 3 years ago - BEEB arcticle linked above isn't relevent as it includes May's Deal which wasn't available then)- but I think it unlikely the voting public were so digitally opposed.Still going on today, no doubt we will get the Referendum arguments thrashed out again this afternoon too, ignoring the reality of "We are where we are, none of us wanted to be here, but we are, so let's get whatever done in the best interests of the nation as a whole recognising that the other side has their interests too."
The cry me a river of we need a time machine, is a joke. The constant habit they all seem to have of conveying their whimsical musing as the truth is tiring - especially when they are so keeen to "Big Man Ting" their access levels, qualifications or yacht club memberships (to reinforce it).
Maybe they should better consider the words of Marcus Aurelius -
"Everything we hear is an openion not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth".
He also said:
"You have power over your mind - not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength".
Of course posts are opinions, but some of us choose to take data, theory or observed facts as a basis for our opinions. The problem becomes when you can't tell the difference.
Edited by stongle on Wednesday 16th October 11:23
stongle said:
FiF said:
Meanwhile we know what the narrative from Remainers will be, hooting and hollering about any concessions, however small, as if they're cast iron proof of something. Yet the adults in the room have known for 3+ years that in the end compromises would be required, in fact some argued it before the vote as part of the campaign. Unfortunately the kidults at each end of the spectrum just continually floated out their tiresome and unhelpful "No surrender" tribalistic hollyhocks about unicorns and cake, not to mention traitors and quisling accusations heading in the other direction.
Still going on today, no doubt we will get the Referendum arguments thrashed out again this afternoon too, ignoring the reality of "We are where we are, none of us wanted to be here, but we are, so let's get whatever done in the best interests of the nation as a whole recognising that the other side has their interests too."
100% agreed on this. There are "ulta's" on either end of the spectrum - but the remainers are seriously clutching at staws now. They are struggling to produce compelling arguments; and nearly every post is a desire for a deal NOT to happen (and excited about the machinations to bring this into place). I'd assume that BREXIT voting had some form of "normal" distribution (at the ends of the curve the range of motivating factors likely diminishing). If the distribution of votes is around the middle - surely a DEAL is the best way to honor the vote (seeing it was as close as gnats chuff)? I don't think this data would be available (given vote was 3 years ago - BEEB arcticle linked above isn't relevent as it includes May's Deal which wasn't available then)- but I think it unlikely the voting public were so digitally opposed.Still going on today, no doubt we will get the Referendum arguments thrashed out again this afternoon too, ignoring the reality of "We are where we are, none of us wanted to be here, but we are, so let's get whatever done in the best interests of the nation as a whole recognising that the other side has their interests too."
The cry me a river of we need a time machine, is a joke. The constant habit they all seem to have of conveying their whimsical musing as the truth is tiring - especially when they are so keeen to "Big Man Ting" their access levels, qualifications or yacht club memberships (to reinforce it).
Maybe they should better consider the words of Marcus Aurelius -
"Everything we hear is an openion not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth".
He also said:
"You have power over your mind - not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength".
Of course posts are opinions, but some of us choose to take data, theory or observed facts as a basis for our opinions. The problem becomes when you can't tell the difference.
Edited by stongle on Wednesday 16th October 11:23
It's all just preaching to the converted.
No wonder it's a shambles.
p1stonhead said:
Robertj21a said:
p1stonhead said:
And boris’ deal apparently ‘splits up the UK’ because NI will be treated differently from us.
I wonder how many people think that's inevitable anyway at some point in the future ?Burwood said:
That's not the case though is it. If you can't sell it perhaps some don't want to change a thing. It wouldn't matter what the deal was, Labour will try and thwart it, Lib Dem and some Conservatives, the same.
It's down to the DUP. If they reject it them others will follow but if they accept it I believe the rebels will fall in line as they won't have a valid excuse (support DUP wishes)
Steve Baker saying he was optimistic to reach a tolerable deal. But not clear on the timing if that was before or after the DUP meeting (not seeing that on the BBC, source is Bloomberg quote - suggest he's a better indicator of ERG mood than David Davis) . It's going to be down to be down to parliamentary arithmetic.It's down to the DUP. If they reject it them others will follow but if they accept it I believe the rebels will fall in line as they won't have a valid excuse (support DUP wishes)
"IF" the electorate believe BJ was honest in his attempts to broker a deal - and "IF" parliament kills it, without a GE we have a total breakdown of the legislative and executive in this country to do it's job.
Latest comres poll (survey size 26K)
https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/itn-brexit-refe...
54% leave
46% remain
https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/itn-brexit-refe...
54% leave
46% remain
Earthdweller said:
Helicopter123 said:
My sources are telling me the UK negotiating team has basically caved in.
Boris has capitulated.
Sources ? Boris has capitulated.
On that point where has the Clapham omnibus disappeared to ?
He was always one for his “sources” and inside information
Maybe he got cancelled in the Tory cuts
Blackpuddin said:
p1stonhead said:
Robertj21a said:
p1stonhead said:
And boris’ deal apparently ‘splits up the UK’ because NI will be treated differently from us.
I wonder how many people think that's inevitable anyway at some point in the future ?Henryhall52 said:
Blackpuddin said:
p1stonhead said:
Robertj21a said:
p1stonhead said:
And boris’ deal apparently ‘splits up the UK’ because NI will be treated differently from us.
I wonder how many people think that's inevitable anyway at some point in the future ?
tty about it.PositronicRay said:
I'd love a reason to support the idea, but no one has even tried to sell this thing to me, garner my support or even engage with me.
It's all just preaching to the converted.
No wonder it's a shambles.
It's an observation on, more than idea.It's all just preaching to the converted.
No wonder it's a shambles.
The BEEB survey doesn't work as it introduces concepts NOT known at the ref. If you remove the time machine argument, normal distribution suggests that lots of the electorate would not feel exceptionally strong for REMAIN or LEAVE.
The problem is you cannot undo the past (it's my opinion the issue should never have been put to the people as and when it was), only move forward. You cannot keep asking the same question again and again (otherwise you become Swinson), we have to get ourselves AND by some token of respect our European peers to close this issue out and move on. A Deal including compromise seems the only logical way forward to me (or it's the least sh*t option for all).
Allowing a dictatorship of the minority to scupper a deal is a disgrace. Even if the DUP don't support it; I think the right thing (opinion warning) would be to introduce it anyway to parliament. I like this piece by Taleb to explain how the most intolerent wins:
https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-win...
Ridgemont said:
Latest comres poll (survey size 26K)
https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/itn-brexit-refe...
54% leave
46% remain
Pretty clear that no-deal is the least popular choice then.https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/itn-brexit-refe...
54% leave
46% remain
Brooking10 said:
One suspects this will be roundly derided given it’s via the BBC however the below, to this reader at least, paints quite an interesting picture of the confusion that currently pervades.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549
What’s confusing?https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50043549
46% want to leave one way or the other.
34% want to remain.
21% don’t know.
Other than adding up to 101% it seems pretty clear.
Strange how some seem to think that the first and only referendum on whether or not the UK should be in the EU (where the leave side won a with 1.4 million majority in the largest turn out in UK voting history) was a `close run thing'.
Yet when a few hundred remain politicians in the HoC (many of whom voted contrary to the wishes of the constituents, who put them onto the HoC in the first place) try to overturn the votes of 17.4 million UK citizens, that is apparently OK, because and I quote, in the UK we have what they describe as a `representative democracy'
Yet when that same `representative democracy' decided it had to give the people of the UK a vote on the matter in 2016, the people did not give the result the remainers wanted, so they have been doing their best to overturn, water down, or otherwise stop the wishes of the majority voter in the UK being enacted.
And all this on top of the people of the UK being taken into the EU without being given a vote on the matter in the first place.
But this however is the biased, highly selective remainers `version' of democracy that they expect those who voted leave to accept. If they do they are about as naïve as it is possible to be, especially as the latest round of opinion polls has stated that people have not changed their minds on Brexit either way since 2016 .
Yet when a few hundred remain politicians in the HoC (many of whom voted contrary to the wishes of the constituents, who put them onto the HoC in the first place) try to overturn the votes of 17.4 million UK citizens, that is apparently OK, because and I quote, in the UK we have what they describe as a `representative democracy'
Yet when that same `representative democracy' decided it had to give the people of the UK a vote on the matter in 2016, the people did not give the result the remainers wanted, so they have been doing their best to overturn, water down, or otherwise stop the wishes of the majority voter in the UK being enacted.
And all this on top of the people of the UK being taken into the EU without being given a vote on the matter in the first place.
But this however is the biased, highly selective remainers `version' of democracy that they expect those who voted leave to accept. If they do they are about as naïve as it is possible to be, especially as the latest round of opinion polls has stated that people have not changed their minds on Brexit either way since 2016 .
Pan Pan Pan said:
Strange how some seem to think that the first and only referendum on whether or not the UK should be in the EU (where the leave side won a with 1.4 million majority in the largest turn out in UK voting history) was a `close run thing'.
How else would you (or anyone) generally describe a 52 v 48 percentile?Pan Pan Pan said:
Yet when a few hundred remain politicians in the HoC (many of whom voted contrary to the wishes of the constituents, who put them onto the HoC in the first place) try to overturn the votes of 17.4 million UK citizens, that is apparently OK, because and I quote, in the UK we have what they describe as a `representative democracy'
That's what we have. You can't really argue otherwise.Pan Pan Pan said:
Yet when that same `representative democracy' decided it had to give the people of the UK a vote on the matter in 2016, the people did not give the result the remainers wanted, so they have been doing their best to overturn, water down, or otherwise stop the wishes of the majority voter in the UK being enacted.
The vote was little more than an opinion poll. Going back to the 52 v 48 percent result, there had to be some sort of compromise. I don't expect you to agree of course.TTwiggy said:
Pan Pan Pan said:
Strange how some seem to think that the first and only referendum on whether or not the UK should be in the EU (where the leave side won a with 1.4 million majority in the largest turn out in UK voting history) was a `close run thing'.
How else would you (or anyone) generally describe a 52 v 48 percentile?Pan Pan Pan said:
Yet when a few hundred remain politicians in the HoC (many of whom voted contrary to the wishes of the constituents, who put them onto the HoC in the first place) try to overturn the votes of 17.4 million UK citizens, that is apparently OK, because and I quote, in the UK we have what they describe as a `representative democracy'
That's what we have. You can't really argue otherwise.Pan Pan Pan said:
Yet when that same `representative democracy' decided it had to give the people of the UK a vote on the matter in 2016, the people did not give the result the remainers wanted, so they have been doing their best to overturn, water down, or otherwise stop the wishes of the majority voter in the UK being enacted.
The vote was little more than an opinion poll. Going back to the 52 v 48 percent result, there had to be some sort of compromise. I don't expect you to agree of course.If that was an election between two parties the winner would not take pity on the loser and offer them a share of power.
I'm sure you know that but I don't expect you to admit it.
jimPH said:
Earthdweller said:
Helicopter123 said:
My sources are telling me the UK negotiating team has basically caved in.
Boris has capitulated.
Sources ? Boris has capitulated.
On that point where has the Clapham omnibus disappeared to ?
He was always one for his “sources” and inside information
Maybe he got cancelled in the Tory cuts
That maybe the battle lines being drawn, but seems to contradict Helicopters access levels.
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