Brexit, what have you learnt

[stongle]

GSalt said:

jamoor said:

Whats the obsessions with manufacturingfishing, it's such a low value industry

Fixed that for you.

Why go there? You were making a lot of interesting and valid points on manufacturing industry, but the UK versus Germany manufacturing base isn't the same.

I think your input is pretty reasoned and a long way from others opinion. A pan European argument you present makes sense; but the weighting of the EU economy may be its undoing. Likewise the UK economy is not weighted as other EU member states, so to suggest they all respond similarly is not true.

Transplanting fishing for manufacturing is the same stunt Deepend pulls when he transplants "rage" for "oh, st I've run out of valid arguments".

The UK economy has always been highly innovative Vs Germany being adaptive. Its comparing apples and oranges. Papering over everything with GDP growth is anonsense if you can generate 5% growth through a Corporation Tax wheeze.

The crazy issue we have is replaying the past, not reconciling the middle ground. There is going to be a compromise which will taste like a cold cup of puke. But the past is the past.

[Tuna]

DeepEnd said:

It's funny how much they want hard evidence before anyone dare speculate on the majesty of Johnson super deal.

You have something against using evidence?

[DeepEnd]

Fishing was witty and on message banter at the expense of all Farage lovers who rant on about fishing when he let them down for years, it is a tiny GDP industry and has been largely affected by non-EU issues such as unavoidable fish stock sustainment issues and the UK's own choices on selling quotas etc.

A see the rage comment landed. It's really still about the cars though isn't it. Don't sweat it, it really doesn't matter.

[GSalt]

ben5575 said:

Alternatively it heads to a 2nd ref, then goes to a GE with the brexit question 'answered'.

Or alternatively, it doesn't. Possible outcomes:

Public accepts Deal - BXP vote collapses, there's a messy election resulting in a comfortable Conservative majority.

Public calls for No Deal - Conservative slight majority, although the only politician really trying to win is Corbyn.

Public calls for Remain - BXP gets a decent vote share but few seats and gets all huffy about FPTP, no overall majority but no one wants a re-run, talks on a Red-Yellow-Yellow-Green-Green coalition stall due to the insistence of all other partners that Corbyn isn't an acceptable candidate for PM.

[texaxile]

I've learnt which pages to avoid when reading the Daily Mail.

[GSalt]

DeepEnd said:

Fishing was witty and on message banter at the expense of all Farage lovers who rant on about fishing when he let them down for years, it is a tiny GDP industry and has been largely affected by non-EU issues such as unavoidable fish stock sustainment issues and the UK's own choices on selling quotas etc.

A see the rage comment landed. It's really still about the cars though isn't it. Don't sweat it, it really doesn't matter.

Nailed it.

Farage hung his flag on the fishing industry he's been personally failing for years (and getting paid for it). It's had far more attention than it warrants in comparison to manufacturing. It's also extremely heavily dependent upon frictionless trade to the EU. No Deal will be the end of live shellfish transport to the lucrative French and Spanish markets.

If you read my earlier comments you'll see I do attach a *lot* of personal importance to UK manufacturing.

[GSalt]

texaxile said:

I've learnt which pages to avoid when reading the Daily Mail.

Front, back, and everything in-between?

[DeepEnd]

GSalt said:

Or alternatively, it doesn't. Possible outcomes:

Public accepts Deal - BXP vote collapses, there's a messy election resulting in a comfortable Conservative majority.

Public calls for No Deal - Conservative slight majority, although the only politician really trying to win is Corbyn.

Public calls for Remain - BXP gets a decent vote share but few seats and gets all huffy about FPTP, no overall majority but no one wants a re-run, talks on a Red-Yellow-Yellow-Green-Green coalition stall due to the insistence of all other partners that Corbyn isn't an acceptable candidate for PM.

Sounds promising.

Corbyn gone.

Ultra Brexiters gone as now out of fashion and out of touch with "Remain Britain".

Moderates back! And with a mandate not to do anything silly again for ages.

[Jockman]

BXP scenario is real. CBA looking at the figures from 2015 but IIRC UKIP received over 3.1m votes in 2015 for 1 MP.

SNP received half of that for circa 20 MPs.

Please don't hold me to the figures but it gives you a flavour of what Farage can tap in to and why, ultimately, CMD was compelled to promise a referendum.

[Vanden Saab]

DeepEnd said:

GSalt said:

Or alternatively, it doesn't. Possible outcomes:

Public accepts Deal - BXP vote collapses, there's a messy election resulting in a comfortable Conservative majority.

Public calls for No Deal - Conservative slight majority, although the only politician really trying to win is Corbyn.

Public calls for Remain - BXP gets a decent vote share but few seats and gets all huffy about FPTP, no overall majority but no one wants a re-run, talks on a Red-Yellow-Yellow-Green-Green coalition stall due to the insistence of all other partners that Corbyn isn't an acceptable candidate for PM.

Sounds promising.

Corbyn gone.

Ultra Brexiters gone as now out of fashion and out of touch with "Remain Britain".

Moderates back! And with a mandate not to do anything silly again for ages.

Are you including your good self in the moderate camp?

[ben5575]

GSalt said:

ben5575 said:

Alternatively it heads to a 2nd ref, then goes to a GE with the brexit question 'answered'.

Or alternatively, it doesn't. Possible outcomes:

Public accepts Deal - BXP vote collapses, there's a messy election resulting in a comfortable Conservative majority.

Public calls for No Deal - Conservative slight majority, although the only politician really trying to win is Corbyn.

Public calls for Remain - BXP gets a decent vote share but few seats and gets all huffy about FPTP, no overall majority but no one wants a re-run, talks on a Red-Yellow-Yellow-Green-Green coalition stall due to the insistence of all other partners that Corbyn isn't an acceptable candidate for PM.

That's why I put ' ' around answered.

I reckon the Tories win with Deal (coz BJ Deal), No Deal (coz BXP irrelevant) and Remain (coz Corbyn unelectable and BXP only has committed Leavers who will still care) post 2nd ref. Hung parliament if Brexit is still a live issue going into a GE (coz Remainers don't want No Deal).

The above makes Blair's intervention for a 2nd ref an interesting question in its own right - he would rather see the potential Remain/Deal over the likely resulting Tory victory in a GE.

Wandering off topic though.

Edited by ben5575 on Tuesday 15th October 21:43

[GSalt]

DeepEnd said:

Moderates back! And with a mandate not to do anything silly again for ages.

Except we'll have lost a lot of moderates in getting there.

Just having a quick look for a list of those confirmed as not standing at the next election (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/full-list-of-mps-who-are-standing-down-at-the-next-election-a4230531.html)

Conservative
John Bercow, Glyn Davies, Michael Fallon, Nick Hurd, Jo Johnson, Jeremy Lefroy, Claire Perry, Mark Prisk, Keith Simpson, Caroline Spelman, David Tredinnick

Labour
Kevin Barron, Ronnie Campbell, Gloria De Piero, Jim Fitzpatrick, Kate Hoey, John Mann, Albert Owen, Teresa Pearce, Stephen Pound, Geoffrey Robinson, Stephen Twigg

LibDem
Vince Cable, Norman Lamb

Independents
Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Alastair Burt, Kenneth Clarke, Justine Greening, Richard Harrington, Oliver Letwin, Sir Nicholas Soames

Whipless Conservatives
Kenneth Clarke, Philip Hammond, David Gauke, Greg Clark, Sir Oliver Letwin, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Rory Stewart, Sir Nicholas Soames, Alistair Burt, Sam Gyimah, Stephen Hammond, Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Steve Brine, Richard Harrington, Margot James, Anne Milton, Caroline Nokes, Antoinette Sandbach, Edward Vaizey​

[DeepEnd]

GSalt said:

Except we'll have lost a lot of moderates in getting there.

Just having a quick look for a list of those confirmed as not standing at the next election (https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/full-list-of-mps-who-are-standing-down-at-the-next-election-a4230531.html)

Conservative
John Bercow, Glyn Davies, Michael Fallon, Nick Hurd, Jo Johnson, Jeremy Lefroy, Claire Perry, Mark Prisk, Keith Simpson, Caroline Spelman, David Tredinnick

Labour
Kevin Barron, Ronnie Campbell, Gloria De Piero, Jim Fitzpatrick, Kate Hoey, John Mann, Albert Owen, Teresa Pearce, Stephen Pound, Geoffrey Robinson, Stephen Twigg

LibDem
Vince Cable, Norman Lamb

Independents
Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Nick Boles, Alastair Burt, Kenneth Clarke, Justine Greening, Richard Harrington, Oliver Letwin, Sir Nicholas Soames

Whipless Conservatives
Kenneth Clarke, Philip Hammond, David Gauke, Greg Clark, Sir Oliver Letwin, Justine Greening, Dominic Grieve, Rory Stewart, Sir Nicholas Soames, Alistair Burt, Sam Gyimah, Stephen Hammond, Guto Bebb, Richard Benyon, Steve Brine, Richard Harrington, Margot James, Anne Milton, Caroline Nokes, Antoinette Sandbach, Edward Vaizey?

True, but some like Bebb & Stewart might have a change of heart. Some of them still have the energy for more positive government but are just fed up with the current destructive backward spiral down the brexit plug hole.

Imagine if it is remain, there will no further need for talentless hardliners like Patel or Raab.

[crankedup]

DeepEnd said:

Bill said:

crankedup said:

So it’s just another blowhard by remainers, who have thought it. Still waiting for the links to all the bull being spouted by remainers.

It's an opinion. A view on the likelihood of one outcome over another. I have low expectations for BoJo and thus far he hasn't exceeded them, but I am hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

It's funny how much they want hard evidence before anyone dare speculate on the majesty of Johnson super deal.

And yet look how much utter garbage about the various brexit matters is peddled/regurgitated without question:

- The Benn bill being drafted by collaborating evil foreigners.
- May's deal was cooked up in complete secrecy by her and Robbins as a dirty remainer trick, poor Davis etc.

Yes it’s clearly asking too much from remainers, quick to spout nonsense without a shred of factual evidence. Next thing is we will be bombarded with people’s vote or whatever it was called.

[crankedup]

ben5575 said:

crankedup said:

Fair enough, I am forming an opinion that whatever proposal comes back our rabble that forms the HoC will not vote it through. In which case we head for a GE and that will lead to a ‘no deal’ .

Alternatively it heads to a 2nd ref, then goes to a GE with the brexit question 'answered'.

It is a possibility, one that I sincerely hope never sees the light of day. IMO, a second referendum will solve nothing, all polls show very little movement of public opinion on the brexit decision taken three years back. Another vote will destroy democracy and confidence in the Country imo.

[djc206]

crankedup said:

It is a possibility, one that I sincerely hope never sees the light of day. IMO, a second referendum will solve nothing, all polls show very little movement of public opinion on the brexit decision taken three years back. Another vote will destroy democracy and confidence in the Country imo.

All the polls which almost always show that a referendum now would be won by Remain? Those polls? I can see why you don’t like them.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-ne...

[Leithen]

What has been learnt (or learned)?

Ad Hominem loves Social Media.

Referenda and First Past The Post is a marriage made in hell.

Fixed Term Parliaments were, and are, a bad idea.

Division is, and always has been, a reliable shortcut to power with almost inevitably dire consequences.

If you are a dictator, division amongst your enemies is almost always a good thing. If you were cunning you might even attempt to encourage it.

Tariffs and cross border trade are understood by almost no-one .

[Captain Obvious]

1) Parliament is only capable of executing the will of the people if it suits their personal consensus.
2) There are an alarming number of people who think EVERYONE in favour of leaving is racist, stupid and worse.
3) The UK's cup overfloweth with scum on both sides of the debate (if you're incapable of addressing someone with a differing view from yourself without being derogatory then that's you)

[MC Bodge]

People love to use derogatory terms e.g. "scum" and "racist".

People also love to declare, somewhat oddly, that all politicians "are the same/as bad as each other".

[stongle]

DeepEnd said:

Fishing was witty and on message banter at the expense of all Farage lovers who rant on about fishing when he let them down for years, it is a tiny GDP industry and has been largely affected by non-EU issues such as unavoidable fish stock sustainment issues and the UK's own choices on selling quotas etc.

A see the rage comment landed. It's really still about the cars though isn't it. Don't sweat it, it really doesn't matter.

Nope neither witty nor rage about the cars (but had you noticed I used Harvard's research to back up why this is a massive problem woth Germany - moreso than us). Still waiting for you to produce a fact or any piece of theory to substantiate the economic argument we are better of remaining. Anything will do. But looks like it'll be a long wait, maybe you should fire up your time machine.

Unfortunatly fish have next to nothing to do with the economics of in/out (on that we agree). Why you pick up on a minor Farage shortbus argument, when I've delivered a forum punch up the face to the most grandiose economic components of the entire block is a mystery to me. If you are the Deepend of any thought, I'd thought you could pitch a least one credible counter claim. Even if I ignore the EC and ECB and stick to cars to make it easy for you (cars are the weakest in my armoury), i've offered up (and the back up numbers):

German chamber of commerce information
Harvard research
Uk motorspend on No Deal prep
VWs offload of Lambo
Daimler fines
US tariffs

All as compelling reasons for both sides to get a deal. You've given us either "your raging" or "there is" as a replacement for "I think" responses and not a single shred of hard fact. There is a world of difference between what you "know' and what you "think". Many of us can comprehend that. You, errr not so much.

The problem is, you are only in the Deepend of your own remain puddle drowning in the near certainty we are out either (ideally) with or without a deal. You are nothing but a Remain extremist but maybe you can't see it. That boat sailed, or produce the time machine.

Edited by stongle on Wednesday 16th October 07:55

Edited by stongle on Wednesday 16th October 08:02