How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)

[crankedup]

DeepEnd said:

Earthdweller said:

I think the EU weren’t arsed because they mistakenly thought that the U.K. would never actually leave

Their echo chamber and all the noise coming from the the U.K. confirmed their bias

I think based on that they failed to prepare and now that particular chicken is coming home to roost

At some point this year there will have to be an epiphany moment in Brussels or its No deal at the end of the year

The UK just has to hold its ground, it has nothing to lose in doing so

Nothing to lose in no deal?

lol - why did we bother with a transition then?

To help the EU politicians get a grip on its new lesser self!

[DeepEnd]

Earthdweller said:

DeepEnd said:

Nothing to lose in no deal?

lol - why did we bother with a transition then?

That’s not what I said is it ?

I said the U.K. has nothing to lose playing hardball now in the negotiations, the ball is firmly in the EU’s court

Ask yourself - how did “hardball” go last time?

An alignment fudge could be a compromise in the best interests of both UK and EU. Seeing as brexiters have no forecast or any ideas for why they want to break alignment, not sure why everyone else should put up with misalignment just for the sake of it, just to prove a pointless point.

[stongle]

DeepEnd said:

An alignment fudge could be a compromise in the best interests of both UK and EU. Seeing as brexiters have no forecast or any ideas for why they want to break alignment...

Except for the BoE, FCA etc etc. And they are largely neutral. Usual DeepEnd denial and groundhog day.

[Earthdweller]

DeepEnd said:

Earthdweller said:

DeepEnd said:

Nothing to lose in no deal?

lol - why did we bother with a transition then?

That’s not what I said is it ?

I said the U.K. has nothing to lose playing hardball now in the negotiations, the ball is firmly in the EU’s court

Ask yourself - how did “hardball” go last time?

An alignment fudge could be a compromise in the best interests of both UK and EU. Seeing as brexiters have no forecast or any ideas for why they want to break alignment, not sure why everyone else should put up with misalignment just for the sake of it, just to prove a pointless point.

I’m more and more convinced that your grasp on reality is so slim that yours must actually be a parody account !

[Sway]

DeepEnd said:

Earthdweller said:

DeepEnd said:

Nothing to lose in no deal?

lol - why did we bother with a transition then?

That’s not what I said is it ?

I said the U.K. has nothing to lose playing hardball now in the negotiations, the ball is firmly in the EU’s court

Ask yourself - how did “hardball” go last time?

An alignment fudge could be a compromise in the best interests of both UK and EU. Seeing as brexiters have no forecast or any ideas for why they want to break alignment, not sure why everyone else should put up with misalignment just for the sake of it, just to prove a pointless point.

Hardball went well. A proposal that multiple times was stated as final by the EU, which gave them unilateral control of a region of the UK, was changed rapidly so that the region had full unilateral control.

In a similar vein, it's amusing how you imply that having full control over our internal market regs, taxes and laws isn't important and so in order to get a FTA we should hand control over.

I've said before, but you really are cheap. Think on why no nation on earth has willingly done such a thing before. Certainly not for a potential 3-4% less growth in GDP!

[PushedDover]

There is fallout about the North Sea and the Offshore Wind industry.
Stupid really when the scale of the UK stake in the big picture:
https://www.rivieramm.com/news-content-hub/excludi...


The blurring between'Europe' and 'EU' is concerning.

"[i]Responding to questions from OWJ, a Commission spokesperson said, “The Commission is firmly committed to making Europe climate neutral by 2050 and working with all of our partners around the world to tackle climate change. We count on the UK – which shares our commitment to climate neutrality by 2050 – to remain an important ally in our climate action.

“The development of the renewable energy potential in the North Sea is a long-standing energy priority for the EU and the concerned member states.

“The European Green Deal emphasises the importance of offshore energy in meeting the EU’s 2030 and 2050 climate and energy objectives and stresses the importance of regional cooperation between member states, the North Sea Energy Cooperation being a role model in this respect.

“The North Sea Energy Cooperation supports the implementation of internal market rules and financial schemes – such as the Trans-European Network for Energy regulation (TEN-E) and the Connecting Europe Facility – and helps shape new EU policy approaches to foster offshore energy in the North Sea.

“In this context, Article 128(5) of the Withdrawal Agreement applies to the North Sea Energy Cooperation. This means that, as a rule, the UK cannot be party to this group, though in exceptional circumstances the UK can be invited to participate when it is necessary in the interest of the EU.

“Energy is one of the issues covered by the draft Negotiation Directives adopted by the Commission. Future EU-UK cooperation on energy matters, including on offshore wind in the North Sea, will be addressed as part of the negotiations on the Future Relationship.”
[/i]

the veiled threat at the end is not helpful

[hutchst]

I'm sure our own representatives will be sitting on the edge of their seats just waiting to be invited whenever it is in the interests of the EU.

[paulrockliffe]

hutchst said:

I'm sure our own representatives will be sitting on the edge of their seats just waiting to be invited whenever it is in the interests of the EU.

Yeah quite. Not sure why the EU pretend to be so bothered when Germany is still opening new coal power stations and burning lignite.

[crankedup]

paulrockliffe said:

hutchst said:

I'm sure our own representatives will be sitting on the edge of their seats just waiting to be invited whenever it is in the interests of the EU.

Yeah quite. Not sure why the EU pretend to be so bothered when Germany is still opening new coal power stations and burning lignite.

Yup, Germany burning the filthy st hat generates their industry, level playing field ? Last time I checked, about four months ago, Germany were around 47% coal firing.

[stongle]

crankedup said:

Yup, Germany burning the filthy st hat generates their industry, level playing field ? Last time I checked, about four months ago, Germany were around 47% coal firing.

And that will play further havoc with the EU budget and green commitments. The EU govts start their budget discussions today. Chances of any agreement are looking slim. The fiscally sensible all want to cap the budget (Sweden, Netherlands, Austria etc). The Southern states, France etc want a higher budget limit.

Given that they have to cover green initiatives, innovation and agricultural competition - few think consensus will be reached. And evidently they have to plug a UK sized budget gap. Versus the green commitments, the UK leave is NOT the biggest issue.

Lots of people coming out the woodwork on the EU right now. They maybe in here (or stealing PH's homework). Aberdeen Asset Mgmt said of the EURO this week (whilst predicting parity with the dollar).

"The only way to make it work long term is for many economies to undergo severe and draconian structural adjustments and internal devaluation. The political and social costs will be too high".

Former president of Morgan Stanley (Colm Kelleher) told the FT "Europes capital markets are not fit for purpose" he goes on to talk about EU wide fragmentation and lack of proper regulatory oversight. Oh, and all the experts are in London.

Evidently PH has some major financial wizards, with different views - but their bonafides were lost in a puddle.

[FiF]

crankedup said:

paulrockliffe said:

hutchst said:

I'm sure our own representatives will be sitting on the edge of their seats just waiting to be invited whenever it is in the interests of the EU.

Yeah quite. Not sure why the EU pretend to be so bothered when Germany is still opening new coal power stations and burning lignite.

Yup, Germany burning the filthy st hat generates their industry, level playing field ? Last time I checked, about four months ago, Germany were around 47% coal firing.

Poland 80% from coal.

[crankedup]

stongle said:

crankedup said:

Yup, Germany burning the filthy st hat generates their industry, level playing field ? Last time I checked, about four months ago, Germany were around 47% coal firing.

And that will play further havoc with the EU budget and green commitments. The EU govts start their budget discussions today. Chances of any agreement are looking slim. The fiscally sensible all want to cap the budget (Sweden, Netherlands, Austria etc). The Southern states, France etc want a higher budget limit.

Given that they have to cover green initiatives, innovation and agricultural competition - few think consensus will be reached. And evidently they have to plug a UK sized budget gap. Versus the green commitments, the UK leave is NOT the biggest issue.

Lots of people coming out the woodwork on the EU right now. They maybe in here (or stealing PH's homework). Aberdeen Asset Mgmt said of the EURO this week (whilst predicting parity with the dollar).

"The only way to make it work long term is for many economies to undergo severe and draconian structural adjustments and internal devaluation. The political and social costs will be too high".

Former president of Morgan Stanley (Colm Kelleher) told the FT "Europes capital markets are not fit for purpose" he goes on to talk about EU wide fragmentation and lack of proper regulatory oversight. Oh, and all the experts are in London.

Evidently PH has some major financial wizards, with different views - but their bonafides were lost in a puddle.

Structural / draconian / internal devaluation all sounds very nasty for populations of some Member Countries. I’m no fiscal genius, unlike my daughter, but I reckon Greece and Italy populations will be advising others others who may feel the pain on the horizon. Did we mention European recession. (when you mention puddle is that a reference to a certain poster in here )

Edited by crankedup on Thursday 20th February 16:35

[crankedup]

FiF said:

crankedup said:

paulrockliffe said:

hutchst said:

I'm sure our own representatives will be sitting on the edge of their seats just waiting to be invited whenever it is in the interests of the EU.

Yeah quite. Not sure why the EU pretend to be so bothered when Germany is still opening new coal power stations and burning lignite.

Yup, Germany burning the filthy st hat generates their industry, level playing field ? Last time I checked, about four months ago, Germany were around 47% coal firing.

Poland 80% from coal.

Yes it makes a mockery of our efforts in cleaning up pollution, I wish Greta would take on a European tour. In fairness the Eastern European Countries cannot possibly afford the investment into clean energy. Germany however!!

[Earthdweller]

crankedup said:

FiF said:

crankedup said:

paulrockliffe said:

hutchst said:

I'm sure our own representatives will be sitting on the edge of their seats just waiting to be invited whenever it is in the interests of the EU.

Yeah quite. Not sure why the EU pretend to be so bothered when Germany is still opening new coal power stations and burning lignite.

Yup, Germany burning the filthy st hat generates their industry, level playing field ? Last time I checked, about four months ago, Germany were around 47% coal firing.

Poland 80% from coal.

Yes it makes a mockery of our efforts in cleaning up pollution, I wish Greta would take on a European tour. In fairness the Eastern European Countries cannot possibly afford the investment into clean energy. Germany however!!

Somebody mention Polish coal

[SpeckledJim]

Earthdweller said:

crankedup said:

FiF said:

crankedup said:

paulrockliffe said:

hutchst said:

I'm sure our own representatives will be sitting on the edge of their seats just waiting to be invited whenever it is in the interests of the EU.

Yeah quite. Not sure why the EU pretend to be so bothered when Germany is still opening new coal power stations and burning lignite.

Yup, Germany burning the filthy st hat generates their industry, level playing field ? Last time I checked, about four months ago, Germany were around 47% coal firing.

Poland 80% from coal.

Yes it makes a mockery of our efforts in cleaning up pollution, I wish Greta would take on a European tour. In fairness the Eastern European Countries cannot possibly afford the investment into clean energy. Germany however!!

Somebody mention Polish coal

Nah, the domestic workforce can't be persuaded to polish coal.

[Vanden Saab]

PushedDover said:

There is fallout about the North Sea and the Offshore Wind industry.
Stupid really when the scale of the UK stake in the big picture:
https://www.rivieramm.com/news-content-hub/excludi...


The blurring between'Europe' and 'EU' is concerning.

"[i]Responding to questions from OWJ, a Commission spokesperson said, “The Commission is firmly committed to making Europe climate neutral by 2050 and working with all of our partners around the world to tackle climate change. We count on the UK – which shares our commitment to climate neutrality by 2050 – to remain an important ally in our climate action.

“The development of the renewable energy potential in the North Sea is a long-standing energy priority for the EU and the concerned member states.

“The European Green Deal emphasises the importance of offshore energy in meeting the EU’s 2030 and 2050 climate and energy objectives and stresses the importance of regional cooperation between member states, the North Sea Energy Cooperation being a role model in this respect.

“The North Sea Energy Cooperation supports the implementation of internal market rules and financial schemes – such as the Trans-European Network for Energy regulation (TEN-E) and the Connecting Europe Facility – and helps shape new EU policy approaches to foster offshore energy in the North Sea.

“In this context, Article 128(5) of the Withdrawal Agreement applies to the North Sea Energy Cooperation. This means that, as a rule, the UK cannot be party to this group, though in exceptional circumstances the UK can be invited to participate when it is necessary in the interest of the EU.

“Energy is one of the issues covered by the draft Negotiation Directives adopted by the Commission. Future EU-UK cooperation on energy matters, including on offshore wind in the North Sea, will be addressed as part of the negotiations on the Future Relationship.”
[/i]

the veiled threat at the end is not helpful

The UK has half of all the North Sea offshore energy but the EU will not talk to us... Yet another example of the EU shooting themselves in the face. It seems to be becoming a habit...

[loafer123]

I have been keeping an eye on the EU summit blog on Politico.

My god, it’s good to be outside that vipers pit at last.

[Earthdweller]

loafer123 said:

I have been keeping an eye on the EU summit blog on Politico.

My god, it’s good to be outside that vipers pit at last.

The Irish Parliament is fun this afternoon as well

[anonymous-user]

crankedup said:

FiF said:

crankedup said:

paulrockliffe said:

hutchst said:

I'm sure our own representatives will be sitting on the edge of their seats just waiting to be invited whenever it is in the interests of the EU.

Yeah quite. Not sure why the EU pretend to be so bothered when Germany is still opening new coal power stations and burning lignite.

Yup, Germany burning the filthy st hat generates their industry, level playing field ? Last time I checked, about four months ago, Germany were around 47% coal firing.

Poland 80% from coal.

Yes it makes a mockery of our efforts in cleaning up pollution, I wish Greta would take on a European tour. In fairness the Eastern European Countries cannot possibly afford the investment into clean energy. Germany however!!

Some comparative data.

[Ridgemont]

loafer123 said:

I have been keeping an eye on the EU summit blog on Politico.

My god, it’s good to be outside that vipers pit at last.

It’s a really good reminder of the crazy set up:

Portuguese PM said:

On the so-called frugal member states, which want a limited budget, Portugal's António Costa said: “We have four countries with a position that opposes that of the other 23 … It is important that we all make an effort, but also that no one takes refuge in a veto minority.”

He stressed that the Council should not take decisions that “we already know will be rejected by the European Parliament.” The Parliament has called for a significantly larger budget than the Council or the Commission.

Last Wednesday, Costa said in a parliamentary debate that “countries that defend underfunding are countries that do not believe in the EU and therefore do not invest in the EU. Or if they do believe in the EU and do not invest what is necessary, they are not frugal, they are stingy.”

So 4 countries pay for everything. With the U.K. going they have to pay more. If they ask for reductions they are assumed to be poor Europeans. The lack of self awareness of the net recipients is boggling. How dare you not handover your cash!