How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)
Discussion
The European Parliament will veto the new Brexit deal unless it gets assurances that EU citizens will not face deportation from Britain in a new Windrush scandal, Guy Verhofstadt warned on Tuesday.
The leading MEP on Brexit, demanded promises that more than three million EU citizens would not be forced to leave the UK, even if they had not registered for settled status on time.
“We don’t want that EU citizens to become victims of another Windrush scandal in Britain,” he said in the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
The leading MEP on Brexit, demanded promises that more than three million EU citizens would not be forced to leave the UK, even if they had not registered for settled status on time.
“We don’t want that EU citizens to become victims of another Windrush scandal in Britain,” he said in the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
Tony427 said:
My likely scenario.
WA gets repeated wrecking ammendments allowed by Bercow who has absolutely nothing to lose. His legacy will be known as the most dysfunctional, chaotic and unproductive parliament ever.
Boris pulls Withdrawl Bill. EU grants Extension.
Boris calls for election. SNP and LD jump at chance, Corbyn refuses. Turkeys/ Xmas.
Boris and govt calls for VONC. Tories abstain so Tories Lose VONC as they desire.
Corbyn fails to put together coalition Govt as SNP and LD eye his vulnerable Constituencies and he is toxic in any event.
GE called. Is fought on Parliament v People narritive. Depending on how TBP and Tories work or don't work together will dictate either a large Brexit majority or a smaller Brext Majority ( TBP and Tory vote splitting) with TBP providing some limited support.
Withdrawl Bill resurrected and passed within 4 days.
Boris hailed as saviour of Tory Party and Brexit.
Cummins slips out of back door of No 10 to see someone orange in a big white house.
Got the first two points right. WA gets repeated wrecking ammendments allowed by Bercow who has absolutely nothing to lose. His legacy will be known as the most dysfunctional, chaotic and unproductive parliament ever.
Boris pulls Withdrawl Bill. EU grants Extension.
Boris calls for election. SNP and LD jump at chance, Corbyn refuses. Turkeys/ Xmas.
Boris and govt calls for VONC. Tories abstain so Tories Lose VONC as they desire.
Corbyn fails to put together coalition Govt as SNP and LD eye his vulnerable Constituencies and he is toxic in any event.
GE called. Is fought on Parliament v People narritive. Depending on how TBP and Tories work or don't work together will dictate either a large Brexit majority or a smaller Brext Majority ( TBP and Tory vote splitting) with TBP providing some limited support.
Withdrawl Bill resurrected and passed within 4 days.
Boris hailed as saviour of Tory Party and Brexit.
Cummins slips out of back door of No 10 to see someone orange in a big white house.
Now it gets interesting.
DeepEnd said:
ELUSIVEJIM said:
It's clear an extension is going to happen. If it does that could mean a General Election. If that is the case I would be happy.
Why - what do you think would happen?You must have missed my question earlier - when are you starting the campaign to remove the declarations that have to be made today to send a parcel within the UK?
DeepEnd said:
ELUSIVEJIM said:
It's clear an extension is going to happen. If it does that could mean a General Election. If that is the case I would be happy.
Why - what do you think would happen?But as seen with the opposition they just can never agree as the party comes first.
Brooking10 said:
It isn’t difficult.
If we were in France then folk would be on the streets by now demanding we get on with it.
Here we have got bogged down in internet bickering and increasingly heated invective.
Given that I am surprised groups, no matter how small, haven’t taken to finding more public ways to share their displeasure.
I’m wondering, aloud I admit, if what belies this is the fact that despite what we read on here your average Brit is still broadly apathetic and largely supine when it comes to big politics.
As we keep reminding remainers, British people tend to use the ballot box to sort things out.If we were in France then folk would be on the streets by now demanding we get on with it.
Here we have got bogged down in internet bickering and increasingly heated invective.
Given that I am surprised groups, no matter how small, haven’t taken to finding more public ways to share their displeasure.
I’m wondering, aloud I admit, if what belies this is the fact that despite what we read on here your average Brit is still broadly apathetic and largely supine when it comes to big politics.
Mass crying fests by bad losers gets nothing done, voting the f
kers out does.Once you get to the point the ballot method is exhausted, then you are more likely to see the piss boiling become more obvious to those outside their bubbles.
The EU election changed the direction completely, it did its job returing the Brexit party as the largest group in the EU Parliament. You would have to be blind to not see that.
That got us rid of May and rid of the backstop.
Earthdweller said:
Trust me on this, outside of Cla’am and Remain on Thames people are very angry and getting more so by the day
It is a absolutely setting up for Parliament v the People
I know.It is a absolutely setting up for Parliament v the People
I'm from the North and moved out of London, though still work there, 8yrs ago.
The contrast between areas is marked. It always has been tbh.
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Ridgemont said:
Tusk tweeting that extension will be incoming.
Jan potentially.
The EU keeps stating they don't want to extend when they will always extend.Jan potentially.
They have to as they want the remainers to cancel Brexit.
As we have seen with Germany things are not going well in the EU.
The extension will be through to Jan, but with the option of flextension: the idea there is a 2 week rolling review.
My sense is that BJ will try another poke at an election and fail: the deal will sucked into the world of committee after an extension.
I’ve no idea how that will turn out and if anyone claims to know they are lying.
Sway said:
I think it would mean we wouldn't have a minority government anymore with no coalition or supply and confidence agreement creating a majority, as Parliament was designed for.
Yes, that's possible - then what? I got the impression EJim wants to change the deal. Not sure a majority Tory government will see any changes to the deal.
Would they head for a no deal in 2020 with a majority? Seems unlikely, but who knows.
Or would Johnson use his 5 year tenure to try and get the best FTA he could? Seems more likely.
What would make EJim happy?
ELUSIVEJIM said:
mx5nut said:
How much of our hard earned was spent on this advertising campaign? Wouldn't it have been better going to the NHS?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/22/ex...
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Depends what the parties decide to do. Go it alone and its a risk. Come together especially the leave parties and form an alliance and it would be extremely strong.
But as seen with the opposition they just can never agree as the party comes first.
And what would you expect the alliance to do? I think I can guess but don't want to assume. But as seen with the opposition they just can never agree as the party comes first.
Donald Tusk does not want to hold a special summit to discuss any extension to Article 50, BBC Brussels correspondent Adam Fleming says.
He says Mr Tusk's tweet in response to the Commons votes shows he is happy to instead send letters and emails to EU leaders.
The tweet showed Mr Tusk was "accepting the principle" of an extension but "the date is not set in stone", he says.
He adds that EU leaders could refuse the request for an extension but suggested this was unlikely.
They could also propose another date - such as shortly before the new European Commission is installed on 1 December.
He says Mr Tusk's tweet in response to the Commons votes shows he is happy to instead send letters and emails to EU leaders.
The tweet showed Mr Tusk was "accepting the principle" of an extension but "the date is not set in stone", he says.
He adds that EU leaders could refuse the request for an extension but suggested this was unlikely.
They could also propose another date - such as shortly before the new European Commission is installed on 1 December.
DeepEnd said:
Sway said:
I think it would mean we wouldn't have a minority government anymore with no coalition or supply and confidence agreement creating a majority, as Parliament was designed for.
Yes, that's possible - then what? I got the impression EJim wants to change the deal. Not sure a majority Tory government will see any changes to the deal.
Would they head for a no deal in 2020 with a majority? Seems unlikely, but who knows.
Or would Johnson use his 5 year tenure to try and get the best FTA he could? Seems more likely.
What would make EJim happy?
Odd, it's an entirely reasonable one considering your posts earlier this evening...
mx5nut said:
ELUSIVEJIM said:
mx5nut said:
How much of our hard earned was spent on this advertising campaign? Wouldn't it have been better going to the NHS?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/oct/22/ex...
If that happened and the government had not made these arrangements then we would be asking why not.
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