How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)

[psi310398]

Stay in Bed Instead said:

It's quite the opposite actually.

It forced Boris to actually get a new deal, whereas his original plan was to run down the clock and blame the EU.

I rather suspect that we are actually now much closer to 'no deal' than we were because of Letwin, Boles and their shenanigans....

How can on earth can the EU take Parliament seriously?

[Zoobeef]

Stay in Bed Instead said:

It's quite the opposite actually.

It forced Boris to actually get a new deal, whereas his original plan was to run down the clock and blame the EU.

Just think what deal he would have gotten with the threat of being able to go to no deal.

It's like trying to buy a car with your mrs in toe and she keeps telling the salesman how perfect the car is.

[vdn]

ELUSIVEJIM said:

Not sure if this has been mentioned.

The former Conservative MP Nick Boles says he has tabled an amendment that would require the government to seek an extension of the transition period to December 2022.

Under Boris Johnson's deal, the transition - a period of time during which all of the current rules stay the same allowing the UK and the EU to negotiate their future relationship - is due to last until the end of December 2020.

However, critics of Mr Johnson's agreement fear there are no provisions to prevent a no-deal exit at the end of the transition period if no free trade agreement has been reached with the EU.

This is bad as a FTA will be, as this WA, in their favour - and we’ll have to swallow it.

Well done again to Boris, the Tories and all of Parliament for doing such a stellar job at fking the whole thing up.

[Stay in Bed Instead]

Zoobeef said:

Just think what deal he would have gotten with the threat of being able to go to no deal.

It's like trying to buy a car with your mrs in toe and she keeps telling the salesman how perfect the car is.

The one he has got.

[Mrr T]

JagLover said:

Which was always the aim of the Letwin (Pannick) amendment.

As a result I think it is pointless getting worked up about the vote this week. The government will likely end up having to pull the vote.

The EU parliament also needs to approve the WA and they have been clear they will not consider it till the UK parliament passes it. So guess what when BJ claims we will leave on the 31 he is lying to you! unless the EU refuses the extension.

[anonymous-user]

PositronicRay said:

stongle said:

As for the remainer position / revisionist / denier, last Saturdays march may as well been:



The whole world is waiting for commonsense to break out.

She did get there though, sorted out the wicked ol Queen, and wound up back in Kansas with toto.

She never left Kansas.

[arguti]

Zoobeef said:

Stay in Bed Instead said:

It's quite the opposite actually.

It forced Boris to actually get a new deal, whereas his original plan was to run down the clock and blame the EU.

Just think what deal he would have gotten with the threat of being able to go to no deal.

It's like trying to buy a car with your mrs in toe and she keeps telling the salesman how perfect the car is.

It cuts both ways - apart from Cumming and Boris, I don't think anybody really knows what exactly he is up to or what his planned endgame is.

I think the one thing Boris has done differently than May is to keep his cards very close to his chest so the number of leaks re UK Govt strategy has resulted in Cabinet members resigning and opposition having to change tactics.

EU wants us in and wants regime change but now a General Election is too risky so probably "assisting" in any other method to try revoke or get a "people's vote" but at all costs avoid a proper People's Vote i.e. a GE.

just a question for Remainers...will the People's vote be advisory? I note that it is always referred to as confirmatory but if Lib Dems have openly said they would not honour a second Leave vote, where does that leave the UK if Leave wins, even by one vote?

[Camoradi]

Labour's position: "3 days is not enough time for us to assess the detail of the deal, which we can already tell you we are definitely going to vote against"

[slow_poke]

Oh goody. Another new volume.

Somebody catch me up - has Varadker shown himself up as the boy playing the men's game yet, and has Ireland been thrown under the bus by the EU yet?

Must be soon now, yeah?

[psi310398]

Mrr T said:

The EU parliament also needs to approve the WA and they have been clear they will not consider it till the UK parliament passes it. So guess what when BJ claims we will leave on the 31 he is lying to you! unless the EU refuses the extension.

So, just to be clear, on current facts, as the EU has not voted to extend, he's telling the truth?

[Stay in Bed Instead]

psi310398 said:

So, just to be clear, on current facts, as the EU has not voted to extend, he's telling the truth?

The adverts are still running too.

[Blue62]

Camoradi said:

Labour's position: "3 days is not enough time for us to assess the detail of the deal, which we can already tell you we are definitely going to vote against"

There are just as many who have hailed it as a 'great deal' without reading or understanding the text, they're no better or worse.

[DeepEnd]

German MEP Terry Reintke, party of the the Greens–European Free Alliance, has made a plea for a vote.

“The EU is not tired of the British people … But what we are tired of is prime ministers that are giving promises that they cannot live up to. We are tired of prime ministers that are using divisive language.

When will someone try and add a second ref? Johnson may then withdraw his bill and go for a GE instead - which is pretty cowardly and undemocratic when you think about it. A GE is just a way to avoid letting the people really decide.

[anonymous-user]

slow_poke said:

Oh goody. Another new volume.

Somebody catch me up - has Varadker shown himself up as the boy playing the men's game yet, and has Ireland been thrown under the bus by the EU yet?

Must be soon now, yeah?

Remember BoJo called them out, effectively, a few weeks back when he said Merkel had let a few things slip? Then they ALL (Varadkar, Coveney, Tusk, Barnier.....) squeaked about a blame game, while Merkel didn't deny, and then all of a sudden the game changed and we are playing ball again.

[stongle]

jsf said:

PositronicRay said:

stongle said:

As for the remainer position / revisionist / denier, last Saturdays march may as well been:



The whole world is waiting for commonsense to break out.

She did get there though, sorted out the wicked ol Queen, and wound up back in Kansas with toto.

She never left Kansas.

Exactamondo.

Thank-you JSF.

Its a total nonsense. The mickey mouse walts whom are calling in parliamentary sovereignty have missed the point of UK Law and and how the constitution is supposed to function. Credit where its due, MrrT, called that one correct when he said the unwritten constitution is not designed to deal with minority govts. However parliament is taking the piss.

By the way Clapham don't amend posts, its 600 BILLION.

Frictionless trade can be resolved with a Norway type deal. It eliminates downside risk and is all upside. Its the optmal and bestest outcome. Fringe clowns / bigots are 2 slices of bread short of a sandwich.

I wish Brooking posts more, at least he has enough knowledge and clout to propose an interesting argument otherwise without resorting to Walty claims.

I'd say Remain is better than No Deal, but that boat sailed. Numpty argument.

Anything other than a Norway dreal is the wrong answer. HTH. Word, Fo'real, the eagle has landed.

[230TE]

Stay in Bed Instead said:

It's quite the opposite actually.

It forced Boris to actually get a new deal, whereas his original plan was to run down the clock and blame the EU.

Do you have any evidence to back up that assertion? (Tinfoil-hat conspiracy nonsense from Twitter doesn't count as evidence.)

[MDMetal]

Bussolini said:

Murph7355 said:

You've had it explained many times and not answered yourself!

What result do you expect from said second referendum.

The only indicators out there are that nothing material has shifted. So

- marginal win by Leave. Does that fix anything? Nope. Most of the same loud voices will still be moaning. "Ignore them"? Not allowed. Been tried already

- marginal Remain win. Does that fix anything? Why the hell should it. How many times do we need to vote for it to be accepted? Logically it makes no sense to simply say "but this time it counts". Ahhhhh, but we know more now... No we don't.

We know our MPs are useless can kickers. Another EU malaise. But that's not really "news". Anything else is just repeating the same arguments that you either believe or you do not, for logical reasons or not. Nothing new is available.

Then you have the thorny question of turnout. If it's less than last time (I would suggest likely with the disillusionment with our political class... And I'd venture this will hit the Leave vote hardest as they already won one vote. Why bother with another if the original is ignored?) then what?

There is no logic in a second vote. Leaving won't be any easier if Leave wins again. Pull the tooth. And if Remain wins, unless by a landslide on a bigger turnout (highly unlikely) the division and distrust in our system get torn deeper.

It is not a solution.

A GE isn't really either tbh as it's possible revoke or hardest hard on Brexit could feasibly get a majority with an even smaller number of votes... But at least a majority would see a govt able to function.

Though, of course, we are far more likely to have a hung Parliament IMO. So even that may solve nothing. (Unless MPs keep fecking about in which case I could readily see a Tory/TBP victory.)

If govt commits to a vote and commits to implement it, along with the majority of Parliament committing to do the same, they should fking well do it. This is mainly down to the Tories AND Labour.

They should then focus on winning the next GE if they can and changing things that way instead of all the theatrics and nonsense we've been subjected to.

(The real solution is to have a better thought out Art50 of course. And for the 2yrs to be non-negotiable. Agree a WA or leave without one. Everyone knows up front, minds focused. Hopefully the EU will spend plenty of time on this as and when we leave - we will one day. Their approach will likely to be to scratch it completely ).

So basically you are afraid the electorate would vote Remain.

The real solution is to revoke the Article 50 notification and be done with this nonsense.

It actually doesn't matter which side wins unless it's by a thumping majority which it clearly won't be. Remain won't be happy with a narrow leave victory people will still be thick, lied to or misunderstand. A narrow Remain win just compounds the feeling of distrust, that the system will be shown that if you delay long enough and do a bad enough job of implementing then eventually you can just shuffle that thing away under the rug. Is that the sort of place you want to live?

This is as much about sorting out how we're governed in future as it is about the specific result. If it was clear that peoples views had substantially changed then yes another vote would help but it's crystal clear the split is roughly the same and if you though either side played dirty last time just imagine what would be about to unfold!

[p1stonhead]

230TE said:

Stay in Bed Instead said:

It's quite the opposite actually.

It forced Boris to actually get a new deal, whereas his original plan was to run down the clock and blame the EU.

Do you have any evidence to back up that assertion? (Tinfoil-hat conspiracy nonsense from Twitter doesn't count as evidence.)

How about unlawfully shutting Parliament?

[Stay in Bed Instead]

230TE said:

Do you have any evidence to back up that assertion? (Tinfoil-hat conspiracy nonsense from Twitter doesn't count as evidence.)

I thought it was obvious to all.

Do you forget the non existent technical solution to avoid the backstop?

[Pan Pan Pan]

arguti said:

Zoobeef said:

Stay in Bed Instead said:

It's quite the opposite actually.

It forced Boris to actually get a new deal, whereas his original plan was to run down the clock and blame the EU.

Just think what deal he would have gotten with the threat of being able to go to no deal.

It's like trying to buy a car with your mrs in toe and she keeps telling the salesman how perfect the car is.

It cuts both ways - apart from Cumming and Boris, I don't think anybody really knows what exactly he is up to or what his planned endgame is.

I think the one thing Boris has done differently than May is to keep his cards very close to his chest so the number of leaks re UK Govt strategy has resulted in Cabinet members resigning and opposition having to change tactics.

EU wants us in and wants regime change but now a General Election is too risky so probably "assisting" in any other method to try revoke or get a "people's vote" but at all costs avoid a proper People's Vote i.e. a GE.

just a question for Remainers...will the People's vote be advisory? I note that it is always referred to as confirmatory but if Lib Dems have openly said they would not honour a second Leave vote, where does that leave the UK if Leave wins, even by one vote?

Fortunately not all remainers are anti democrats, so what this really comes down to is a competition, between those who believe in, and respect democracy, and those anti democrats who believe that democracy is only where it gives them the result they want, regardless of the result of any democratic vote held in the country.