How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)

How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)

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Ridgemont

6,596 posts

132 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
Tankrizzo said:
jsf said:
Its pretty obvious the delay will be used to apply wrecking amendments which will make the WA invalid.
That's my thinking, although whether Starmer would get enough votes for his stupid confirmatory vote amendment remains to be seen.
I’m not so sure. Looking at the numbers being crunched in the telegraph, for example, it may very well be that the gridlock and indecision that got us into this mess may well start working in BJ’s favour; the numbers are well short for a confirmatory referendum. Likewise revoke. Possibly the only thing which might pass is some kind of parliamentary lock on no deal at the end of 2020.

I’m personally of the view that when the EU offers an extension, and the pointless GE vote fails, then the act will pass largely unscathed. Of course Parliament will be levering in a future crisis with the no no deal clause but I do think once we are out of this phase stuff will calm down. I may be overly optimistic tho’.

Sway

26,326 posts

195 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
Ridgemont said:
Tankrizzo said:
jsf said:
Its pretty obvious the delay will be used to apply wrecking amendments which will make the WA invalid.
That's my thinking, although whether Starmer would get enough votes for his stupid confirmatory vote amendment remains to be seen.
I’m not so sure. Looking at the numbers being crunched in the telegraph, for example, it may very well be that the gridlock and indecision that got us into this mess may well start working in BJ’s favour; the numbers are well short for a confirmatory referendum. Likewise revoke. Possibly the only thing which might pass is some kind of parliamentary lock on no deal at the end of 2020.

I’m personally of the view that when the EU offers an extension, and the pointless GE vote fails, then the act will pass largely unscathed. Of course Parliament will be levering in a future crisis with the no no deal clause but I do think once we are out of this phase stuff will calm down. I may be overly optimistic tho’.
Pah!

The Telegraph. Complete arse gravy.

We need to hear what Heli's spreadsheet says.

Then we'll know exactly what will not happen.

Lotobear

6,378 posts

129 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
I do wonder if the 'plan' is to keep delaying Brexit in order to build up economic pain so as to to bounce the electorate into reversing their decision?

Ridgemont

6,596 posts

132 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
Sway said:
Ridgemont said:
Tankrizzo said:
jsf said:
Its pretty obvious the delay will be used to apply wrecking amendments which will make the WA invalid.
That's my thinking, although whether Starmer would get enough votes for his stupid confirmatory vote amendment remains to be seen.
I’m not so sure. Looking at the numbers being crunched in the telegraph, for example, it may very well be that the gridlock and indecision that got us into this mess may well start working in BJ’s favour; the numbers are well short for a confirmatory referendum. Likewise revoke. Possibly the only thing which might pass is some kind of parliamentary lock on no deal at the end of 2020.

I’m personally of the view that when the EU offers an extension, and the pointless GE vote fails, then the act will pass largely unscathed. Of course Parliament will be levering in a future crisis with the no no deal clause but I do think once we are out of this phase stuff will calm down. I may be overly optimistic tho’.
Pah!

The Telegraph. Complete arse gravy.

We need to hear what Heli's spreadsheet says.

Then we'll know exactly what will not happen.

stongle

5,910 posts

163 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
Its like Arkham Asylum in here. Go on a client lunch / bender, and in the last 24hrs some of y’all lost your minds. Or the forum has gone into full talking b*llocks mode.

DeepEnd said:
I think it is about doing it properly. Two days is comical for such a complex undertaking. If you consider expert advice might be needed on some of the implications then two weeks would be fast.

Those that do care oh so very much just reinforce the view that some leavers are really not very bright.
Slightly strangely, another of the remainer club; had read; red lined and formed a valid legal opinion on the bill within 18secconds of it being published.


Nickgnome said:
Does anyone have views on the Withdrawal Act that was published last night?

It’s a bit of a dry read for those not used to legalese.
Still nobody want to discuss the content of the actual Bill?

Too difficult maybe or needing actual effort by posters?
If it’s such a piece of piss, why are the MPs; all with staff unable to formulate or debate position? Oh, I’m amazed that Nick missed the opportunity offload his work on parliament; it’s worth about GBP16m.

Finally, DeepEnd reveals the economic argument for remain – cos forms. Brilliant incisive. Nothing on Germany’s debt brake and how it’s wrecking the Eurozone economy OR how they get paid to borrow money (to invest in infrastructure) but they won’t do it but; cos forms.

DeepEnd said:
Are leavers happy with the NI having to fill in customs forms to ship to the mainland?

Just imagine if you had to start doing customs paperwork when selling / shipping stuff from Manchester to Cardiff.

I fear it would be ugly.
They’ll be a distributed ledger / blockchain solution for that in about 18months.

And looking forward, BASEL4, is expected to add a 120bps drag on bank lending (says ING largely coming from a near 20% increase in RWAs – Risk Weighted Assets, which humorously is in another Doom-Loop as the outlook and performance of the zone companies is on a downward rating spiral. The 2012 crisis of banks taking physical delivery of ships as loans go bad; looks to be repeated) – or additional transmission cost to ECB policy. Nope, it’s all forms guys.

The economy that remain wants to hitch us onto, has spent over 2.7trillion trying to hold itself together, and only returned 1.2% inflation in 8 years. No one believes that monetary policy will work anymore – or its reached the point of diminishing effects (say Brandywine). Lagarde is going to demand fiscal support – which Germany won’t do, and everyone else can’t. Bond. Sell. Off. Is. Coming.

French subsidies to airbus, have gotten Scotland ironed out from the WTO (not ideal when SNP based their independence budget of Oil @ $94 a barrel). With more in the pipeline. According to these guys; there is zero downside to remain – apart from captive prisoner of other countries abuses.

No one in their right mind is going to refuse an FTA, given global headwinds.

Genius plan lads, genius.

Some MX5bigot is out insulting all and sundry; but hasn’t figured out that his “Back to the Future”, remain plan is a bigger fantasy than whatever sh*te comes out of Farage’s mouth.

And whilst we are doing leavers, WelshBeef has decided to put his clocks back on Saturday to 1940, cos we’ve all got no backbone (or some other ridiculousness).

Have a I missed anything (aside from Parliament being Parliament)? Wrecking amendments incoming, but probably none of them with enough votes to support. Pointless exercise (apart from as Digga points out, to waste money and loose business). That’s wholly on the shoulders of the remain time machine believing fantasists.

slow_poke

1,855 posts

235 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
I hope there is a second referendum now with the question being this BorisDeal Vs Remain. It's time to go back to the people and let them decide.

As a Remainer last time, I'd want the opportunity to vote Leave on the Boris Deal. Two Leave results in two referenda should put the matter to bed once and for all - no matter how small the margin for leave will be on the second referendum.

Give the Remainers their straw to grasp onto. Have the referendum, I'm confident Leave will prevail again. apart from the usual rabid ultras, most folks are pretty reasonable and will accept that after losing two referenda in a row, and after 3 years of debate, the issue is settled.

Then i'd like to see BOJO et al booted from power and some sort of normal centrist Govt take over.

vdn

8,911 posts

204 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
slow_poke said:
I hope there is a second referendum now with the question being this BorisDeal Vs Remain. It's time to go back to the people and let them decide.

As a Remainer last time, I'd want the opportunity to vote Leave on the Boris Deal. Two Leave results in two referenda should put the matter to bed once and for all - no matter how small the margin for leave will be on the second referendum.

Give the Remainers their straw to grasp onto. Have the referendum, I'm confident Leave will prevail again. apart from the usual rabid ultras, most folks are pretty reasonable and will accept that after losing two referenda in a row, and after 3 years of debate, the issue is settled.

Then i'd like to see BOJO et al booted from power and some sort of normal centrist Govt take over.
No such a Govt exists - it’s wall to wall loons.

Mr Brightside

202 posts

118 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
stongle said:
<snip... amusing rant>
So, how's the hangover then? In fine form with that response!

Blackpuddin

16,567 posts

206 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
Quite surprised more isn't being made of the fact that the EU has sent warning letters to France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Finland about their planned budgets for 2020. The project is on its last legs. Lots of stuff about this on the 'Europe heading into recession' thread. https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Earthdweller

13,603 posts

127 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
Mr Brightside said:
stongle said:
<snip... amusing rant>
So, how's the hangover then? In fine form with that response!
Go Stongle go smile

Wasted on here, but glad you are continuing to contribute

smilesmile

JNW1

7,803 posts

195 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
Blackpuddin said:
Quite surprised more isn't being made of the fact that the EU has sent warning letters to France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Finland about their planned budgets for 2020. The project is on its last legs.
I'm not; in the eyes of many the EU can do no wrong and anything that suggests the project is in anything other than fine fettle is pushing an equivalent of Project Fear as far as they're concerned. If someone has misgivings about the way the EU and their project are going - and voted Leave as a consequence - they're dismissed as a deluded racist with an IQ barely into double figures....

stongle

5,910 posts

163 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
Earthdweller said:
Mr Brightside said:
stongle said:
<snip... amusing rant>
So, how's the hangover then? In fine form with that response!
Go Stongle go smile

Wasted on here, but glad you are continuing to contribute

smilesmile
Hanging. Beer Monkeys where in, sh*t in my mouth and nicked all my money. He was my co-partner @ the bank; but I forgot how much he can drink.

Was some catch up session in here this morning.

There is a really interesting debate raging in Europe right now. Dr No (Jens Weidmann head of the Bundesbank); is saying "ya, ya, whatever" to Draghi's request for Fiscal spend. Germany is saying spillover effect is tiny. Imports are tiny, and IF there are benefits it goes to the wrong countries. The ECB is producing data which is completely the opposite. For every 1% GDP growth in Germany, the spillover is 0.5% (which frankly is a number they pulled out a cracker).

The other issue, is that Fiscal Funster Macron, wants a Euro-zone budget and pooled resources (or tax take). This has somewhat predictably gone down like a luke warm cup of vomit with the Germans (AND other richer states).

Basically the entire Eurozone AND rest of the block is hoping that germany will do a fiscal drop that helps the EU; not one that helps Germany. Liklihood of that, near zero.

This is the union Remain wants to take us into. Joining that club, and being British about treaties; is a recipe for a bumming with no reach around.



Stay in Bed Instead

22,362 posts

158 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
JNW1 said:
I'm not; in the eyes of many the EU can do no wrong and anything that suggests the project is in anything other than fine fettle is pushing an equivalent of Project Fear as far as they're concerned. If someone has misgivings about the way the EU and their project are going - and voted Leave as a consequence - they're dismissed as a deluded racist with an IQ barely into double figures....
Likewise in the eyes of many the EU can do no right.


Mrr T

12,257 posts

266 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
stongle said:
They’ll be a distributed ledger / blockchain solution for that in about 18months.
The new normal in meetings on system development put up slide saying blockchain. I expect in a couple of years we will have a new favourite. It's not that simple.

stongle said:
And looking forward, BASEL4, is expected to add a 120bps drag on bank lending (says ING largely coming from a near 20% increase in RWAs – Risk Weighted Assets, which humorously is in another Doom-Loop as the outlook and performance of the zone companies is on a downward rating spiral. The 2012 crisis of banks taking physical delivery of ships as loans go bad; looks to be repeated) – or additional transmission cost to ECB policy. Nope, it’s all forms guys.
Are you suggestion on leaving the UK will not adopt Basle 4?

stongle said:
The economy that remain wants to hitch us onto, has spent over 2.7trillion trying to hold itself together, and only returned 1.2% inflation in 8 years. No one believes that monetary policy will work anymore – or its reached the point of diminishing effects (say Brandywine). Lagarde is going to demand fiscal support – which Germany won’t do, and everyone else can’t. Bond. Sell. Off. Is. Coming.
We will still be attached to the EU no matter what happens. Some have been predicting a bond sell off for several years and it's still not happening.

stongle said:
French subsidies to airbus, have gotten Scotland ironed out from the WTO (not ideal when SNP based their independence budget of Oil @ $94 a barrel). With more in the pipeline. According to these guys; there is zero downside to remain – apart from captive prisoner of other countries abuses.
Since Airbus is 20% UK owned its highly likely the UK government knew what was happening. Sure the UK/US supper FTA will sort it.

stongle said:
No one in their right mind is going to refuse an FTA, given global headwinds.
BJ has suggest to the Spartans the UK can still leave with no deals at the end of the TP.

You seem very brexity today, good night out.

We are where we are because no one trusts BJ. With good reason.

FiF

44,148 posts

252 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
Earthdweller said:
Mr Brightside said:
stongle said:
<snip... amusing rant>
So, how's the hangover then? In fine form with that response!
Go Stongle go smile

Wasted on here, but glad you are continuing to contribute

smilesmile
Indeed, it's completely wasted on here, unfortunately.

I particularly liked the well aimed poke at the forum serial fantasist who in short order had annotated and crossreferenced a 200 odd page document which consists mainly of cross referenced amendments to a 500 odd page document and coming up with an unstated legal interpretation, even though pointing that out is playing the man rather than the ball, mea culpa. Only position more ridiculous is Corbyn giving an interview rubbishing the deal 27 minutes before it had even been published. One more kick from me, epitomises Remainers, too blinkered and bigoted to want to see it.

And we still have senior politicians and policy makers, three and a half plus years of argument later still not understanding the difference between the single market and the customs union or even the downsides of a partial customs union and conflating the most ridiculous positions.


soupdragon1

4,069 posts

98 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
On the news in NI this morning….

Simon Hoare MP was on Radio Ulster this morning and gave a surprisingly open interview, and in some respects, insights into the type of conversations that were going on being Tory closed doors.

Much has been said (certainly here across the Irish Sea) about Congress in USA only approving a post Brexit UK trade deal as long as there in no land border in Ireland. Land border goes up – down goes a UK trade deal. Simon Hoare came out and said it in black and white this morning that the post Brexit vision is trade deals with the like of America, and that an Irish Land Border is a blocker, so the Tories are absolutely lined up with the EU in that respect. That’s contrary to what some have been led to believe, that the EU is using GFA as leverage against the UK – EU and UK are actually on the same page here – you could maybe say that’s its actually the USA that are influencing the UK to take that position, rather than the EU.

DUP have been saying that it’s the EU/ROI/Varadkar using leverage against UK but Simon Hoare has confirmed that the USA are another key stakeholder in this situation.

And as if the DUP humiliation at being ceremoniously dumped by the Tories isn’t enough, Simon Hoare put the boot in once again this morning, by saying that the DUP have yet to provide workable alternatives – they just keep saying they don’t like it with no real plan of what else can be done.

He went on to say that while he recognises the additional paperwork concerns for NI business, there is an offset to that in fact that having a unique deal where we have a foot in both camps and can have relatively frictionless trade with both UK and EU – ie, when weighing up the pro’s and con’s – the Tories firmly believe they have won a good compromise for NI, despite the DUP objections.

In summary – in terms of the overall picture for Brexit, UK, NI, EU, ROW – DUP had a voice, but the Tories have now decided quite clearly that they are carrying on without them.

And if all of the above isn’t a massive kick in the teeth for the DUP, there are underlying rumours that there are further kicks coming the DUP’s directions if they start opposing the Tory Govt (eg, by lending support to adjusting Johnsons WA to include a CU) then the Govt could ‘threaten’ the DUP with an Irish Language Act in NI.

Just this week, the absence of Stormont has resulted in GB abortion/Gay marriage legislation being introduced in NI (DUP strongly oppose both as well as large sections of their electorate) so after that big kick in the teeth – to see it followed up with an Irish Language Act being introduced would be a massive kick in the teeth.

The DUP have went from holding a position of power in the Tory Govt to ground zero…and quite possibly, a complete reversal where they are staring down the barrel of a Tory party who will stop at nothing to get their way.

I haven’t added my opinion to any of this yet, but it appears the Tories are getting quite aggressive in their strategy. Not only did they throw the DUP under the bus – it appears they are going to block off all the roads to ensure the emergency services are unable to reach them. Make of that what you will.


Edited by soupdragon1 on Wednesday 23 October 10:46

Digga

40,354 posts

284 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
Are you suggestion on leaving the UK will not adopt Basle 4?
Without presuming to speak for Stongle, my own take is rather that EU banks are far worse prepared for the new regulations - they are already in a very embattled position and the changes are hardly likely to increase their propensity to lend, which therefore does not bode well for Eurozone economic growth.

stongle

5,910 posts

163 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
Mrr T said:
stongle said:
They’ll be a distributed ledger / blockchain solution for that in about 18months.
1. The new normal in meetings on system development put up slide saying blockchain. I expect in a couple of years we will have a new favourite. It's not that simple.

stongle said:
And looking forward, BASEL4, is expected to add a 120bps drag on bank lending (says ING largely coming from a near 20% increase in RWAs – Risk Weighted Assets, which humorously is in another Doom-Loop as the outlook and performance of the zone companies is on a downward rating spiral. The 2012 crisis of banks taking physical delivery of ships as loans go bad; looks to be repeated) – or additional transmission cost to ECB policy. Nope, it’s all forms guys.
2. Are you suggestion on leaving the UK will not adopt Basle 4?

stongle said:
The economy that remain wants to hitch us onto, has spent over 2.7trillion trying to hold itself together, and only returned 1.2% inflation in 8 years. No one believes that monetary policy will work anymore – or its reached the point of diminishing effects (say Brandywine). Lagarde is going to demand fiscal support – which Germany won’t do, and everyone else can’t. Bond. Sell. Off. Is. Coming.
3. We will still be attached to the EU no matter what happens. Some have been predicting a bond sell off for several years and it's still not happening.

stongle said:
French subsidies to airbus, have gotten Scotland ironed out from the WTO (not ideal when SNP based their independence budget of Oil @ $94 a barrel). With more in the pipeline. According to these guys; there is zero downside to remain – apart from captive prisoner of other countries abuses.
4. Since Airbus is 20% UK owned its highly likely the UK government knew what was happening. Sure the UK/US supper FTA will sort it.

stongle said:
No one in their right mind is going to refuse an FTA, given global headwinds.
5. BJ has suggest to the Spartans the UK can still leave with no deals at the end of the TP.

6. You seem very brexity today, good night out.

We are where we are because no one trusts BJ. With good reason.
Responses in numbers.

1. It's coming. Clearstream is already running blockchain pilots. I'd agree it's a solution without a use case; but the case for remain is clear on form filling - I'd suggest this is the way forward (or sped up to deployment).

2. The UK will adopt BASEL4 before the EC. We have one of the most prudent regulators on teh planet; the ECB errr not so much (and it's in short trousers compared to the other regulators - plenty of evidence posted here to confirm that). The EC is trying to get out of BASEL3 right now; procratsinating on FRTB and attempting to go zero reserve. ECB has crushed their Net Interest Margin, so some of them have made very very silly loans. More Loan Lose Provisions to make. It's going to be brutal.

3. Its a question of timinig. There needs to be an inflection point, it's coming. ECB will likely change it's mandate under Lagarde (last done in 2003). They may try and cook the inflation metric - but we will see.

4. What US/UK FTA - it's got sweet FA to do with anything. Why throw in unknowns (or you being abit Rumsfeld today?) to facts. Whether we knew or not; France broke the WTO rules - not us. Adapting the WA/PD was required by both sides.

5. Its game theory, but probably not required. Both sides need an FTA at warp speed. We have pent up spend in the hundreds of billions; they want a bit of that - as much as we want to continue PCP'ing motors and exporting banking, hi-tech and whiskey (assuming the Scots are still around). Spartans are going to have comprimise like everyone else (and they probably want a bit of BJ's "new conservatism"; he's rushing in. BJ "probably" isn't a true leaver (unlike Comrade Corbyn) - it's a ruse to usher in a new era and be as great as Thatcher. That's an opinion mind - but he's seems to be playing a different game to parliament.

6. It was a hard night out, I'm suffering now. The Mood music coming of banks right now is awful. Bonus's in the crapper; cost cutting is the new normal (getting crushed). Drinking sorrows away.

Tycho

11,636 posts

274 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
slow_poke said:
I hope there is a second referendum now with the question being this BorisDeal Vs Remain. It's time to go back to the people and let them decide.

As a Remainer last time, I'd want the opportunity to vote Leave on the Boris Deal. Two Leave results in two referenda should put the matter to bed once and for all - no matter how small the margin for leave will be on the second referendum.

Give the Remainers their straw to grasp onto. Have the referendum, I'm confident Leave will prevail again. apart from the usual rabid ultras, most folks are pretty reasonable and will accept that after losing two referenda in a row, and after 3 years of debate, the issue is settled.

Then i'd like to see BOJO et al booted from power and some sort of normal centrist Govt take over.
So what happens if remain win this time? I supose we remain in that case? Leave has to win a vote twice but remain once, sounds fair.

ClaphamGT3

11,311 posts

244 months

Wednesday 23rd October 2019
quotequote all
JNW1 said:
Blackpuddin said:
Quite surprised more isn't being made of the fact that the EU has sent warning letters to France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Portugal and Finland about their planned budgets for 2020. The project is on its last legs.
I'm not; in the eyes of many the EU can do no wrong and anything that suggests the project is in anything other than fine fettle is pushing an equivalent of Project Fear as far as they're concerned. If someone has misgivings about the way the EU and their project are going - and voted Leave as a consequence - they're dismissed as a deluded racist with an IQ barely into double figures....
I for one have been clear from the outset that, although I support us remaining in the EU and support further EU integration as a principle, there is much wrong with the institution that requires reform.

It is perfectly possible to support something on balance whilst being perfectly aware of its faults.
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