How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)
Discussion
soupdragon1 said:
I think putting such a short timescale on a deal Boris has painted himself (and therefor, all of us) into a corner.
He would do better scrapping the deadline, and playing the long game, IMO.
Do it once, and do it right. Why should Brexit be like some Saturday night game show where you've got 60 seconds to grab as many shiny tokens as you can?
Boris choosing to make it like that has me very suspicious of his motives.
I understand your point, but I don't necessarily think it is the length of time available that is the biggest barrier to negotiations, but rather the very difficult situation the EU has, WRT aligning not only the interests of the 27 nations, but also the EU itself. I believe you could give them as much time as you like, but they would still be drawing lines along a fairly rigid alignment and equivalence with EU rules for the UK, post Brexit.He would do better scrapping the deadline, and playing the long game, IMO.
Do it once, and do it right. Why should Brexit be like some Saturday night game show where you've got 60 seconds to grab as many shiny tokens as you can?
Boris choosing to make it like that has me very suspicious of his motives.
In many ways, this is a logical position for the EU, but also a very good reason why the UK is strategically correct in (at least appearing) not blinking and sticking to an definitive exit date.
For the record, I don't necessarily think this will get us a 'better' deal, but it will certainly conclude negotiations faster and allow the UK to move onto other deals.
Brooking10 said:
Murph7355 said:
Alternative view - we've decided that our path doesn't align with a political construct that is no longer primarily about trade, and would like to revert to a trading arrangement only.
No hate. No invective. Choice. As provisioned for, albeit very poorly, within the political construct's own rules.
Why does everything have to be extreme?
But you are one of the sensible ones ......No hate. No invective. Choice. As provisioned for, albeit very poorly, within the political construct's own rules.
Why does everything have to be extreme?
Not everybody voted for the collective point of view you articulate so clearly. Largely because they neither understood it nor could they articulate it in that way.
The schism this whole thing has created is deeper than many had envisaged
The daily gloating and invective evinced on this thread by a small group of increasingly rabid sounding individuals who round on anybody who dares suggest things might not be, or end up being, as rosy as described in the brochure is hugely unbecoming but more to the point indicative of what we have to heal.
We’ll work out a trade deal of that I’m sure - because ultimately all parties have to.
I have grave doubts it will be concluded within the allotted time period but we’ll all get there eventually.
Physician, heal thyself.
Sway said:
soupdragon1 said:
I think putting such a short timescale on a deal Boris has painted himself (and therefor, all of us) into a corner.
He would do better scrapping the deadline, and playing the long game, IMO.
Do it once, and do it right. Why should Brexit be like some Saturday night game show where you've got 60 seconds to grab as many shiny tokens as you can?
Boris choosing to make it like that has me very suspicious of his motives.
What does "right" look like to you? He would do better scrapping the deadline, and playing the long game, IMO.
Do it once, and do it right. Why should Brexit be like some Saturday night game show where you've got 60 seconds to grab as many shiny tokens as you can?
Boris choosing to make it like that has me very suspicious of his motives.
Whilst "doing it right", does that not come across as having our cake and eating it, as we 'enjoy' all the benefits of membership whilst being able to persue an independent trade policy?
My personal opinion is that we look at every section of trade on it's own merit, one by one, stroke them off. It would take several years but overall, give businesses time to adapt and adjust.
The current timescale just feels a bit 'press the nuke button' to me. We'll deal with the fall out.
It's just my opinion though, right of wrong. Haven't really got time to get into any debates today unfortunately.
Sway said:
Are the "gloating", "invective" and "increasingly rabid sounding individuals" solely a preserve of leave supporters, as you present?
Physician, heal thyself.
No but that’s where the recent increase feels it’s coming fromPhysician, heal thyself.
The cut and paste extreme Remainers have been largely omnipresent
Brooking10 said:
The schism this whole thing has created is deeper than many had envisaged
The daily gloating and invective evinced on this thread by a small group of increasingly rabid sounding individuals who round on anybody who dares suggest otherwise....
Those rabid sounding individuals are those keen to call millions of people racists. Really, the inability to understand cause and effect is astonishing.The daily gloating and invective evinced on this thread by a small group of increasingly rabid sounding individuals who round on anybody who dares suggest otherwise....
That is simple reflection they are way out if their depth in a debate that is fundamentally driven by economics.
They should be recognising what was said by the senior EU institutions and pointing out such things as - readjusting the inflation metric is sensible given it
1) aligns with other models such as UK / US
2) the city housing bubble effects seen in Paris etc
Its not gaming the metric but sensible. But wait, not in twitter....
This has a far greater input into the negotiating long game than an imagined digital trade drop.
soupdragon1 said:
3 people have quoted me so I'll just reply the once.
My personal opinion is that we look at every section of trade on it's own merit, one by one, stroke them off. It would take several years but overall, give businesses time to adapt and adjust.
The current timescale just feels a bit 'press the nuke button' to me. We'll deal with the fall out.
It's just my opinion though, right of wrong. Haven't really got time to get into any debates today unfortunately.
We won’t get it done in 12 months and an extension is highly likely if not as good as inevitable, unless of course Boris is convinced to sacrifice pragmatism at the political altar.My personal opinion is that we look at every section of trade on it's own merit, one by one, stroke them off. It would take several years but overall, give businesses time to adapt and adjust.
The current timescale just feels a bit 'press the nuke button' to me. We'll deal with the fall out.
It's just my opinion though, right of wrong. Haven't really got time to get into any debates today unfortunately.
soupdragon1 said:
Sway said:
soupdragon1 said:
I think putting such a short timescale on a deal Boris has painted himself (and therefor, all of us) into a corner.
He would do better scrapping the deadline, and playing the long game, IMO.
Do it once, and do it right. Why should Brexit be like some Saturday night game show where you've got 60 seconds to grab as many shiny tokens as you can?
Boris choosing to make it like that has me very suspicious of his motives.
What does "right" look like to you? He would do better scrapping the deadline, and playing the long game, IMO.
Do it once, and do it right. Why should Brexit be like some Saturday night game show where you've got 60 seconds to grab as many shiny tokens as you can?
Boris choosing to make it like that has me very suspicious of his motives.
Whilst "doing it right", does that not come across as having our cake and eating it, as we 'enjoy' all the benefits of membership whilst being able to persue an independent trade policy?
My personal opinion is that we look at every section of trade on it's own merit, one by one, stroke them off. It would take several years but overall, give businesses time to adapt and adjust.
The current timescale just feels a bit 'press the nuke button' to me. We'll deal with the fall out.
It's just my opinion though, right of wrong. Haven't really got time to get into any debates today unfortunately.
Unfortunately, the pragmatic and reasonable approach you desire has already been vetoed by the EU.
amusingduck said:
Brooking10 said:
The schism this whole thing has created is deeper than many had envisaged
Does that not suggest to you that the referendum merely revealed the schism, rather than created it? Brits abroad refer to themsleves as expats not immigrants, their own lack of assimilation is ok when they are in the Costa del Sol is different when the Spaniard has moved in next door. I think the Brexit will be good for Britain, much like a bloke who works for a big company moaning about everything being wrong with their life because of the company.
Now they have quit they can chose their own path. Some believe that this will be fantastic, but dont quite grasp that they dont have use of the company gym or fuel card.
The Telegraph today published the full text of the UK's chief negotiator, David Frost's recent speech to a Brussel's university.
He has a clear agenda and lays out exactly why there will be no 'equivalence' and no acceptance of laws made by the EU.
He says that making our own laws is "the whole point" of Brexit and M. Barnier and others on the EU side should disabuse themselves of the notion that this is merely a bargaining position to be given up in the cut and thrust of negotiation.
He also says that we walk away on 31st of December, come what may.
Interesting times ahead.
He has a clear agenda and lays out exactly why there will be no 'equivalence' and no acceptance of laws made by the EU.
He says that making our own laws is "the whole point" of Brexit and M. Barnier and others on the EU side should disabuse themselves of the notion that this is merely a bargaining position to be given up in the cut and thrust of negotiation.
He also says that we walk away on 31st of December, come what may.
Interesting times ahead.
soupdragon1 said:
Sway said:
soupdragon1 said:
I think putting such a short timescale on a deal Boris has painted himself (and therefor, all of us) into a corner.
He would do better scrapping the deadline, and playing the long game, IMO.
Do it once, and do it right. Why should Brexit be like some Saturday night game show where you've got 60 seconds to grab as many shiny tokens as you can?
Boris choosing to make it like that has me very suspicious of his motives.
What does "right" look like to you? He would do better scrapping the deadline, and playing the long game, IMO.
Do it once, and do it right. Why should Brexit be like some Saturday night game show where you've got 60 seconds to grab as many shiny tokens as you can?
Boris choosing to make it like that has me very suspicious of his motives.
Whilst "doing it right", does that not come across as having our cake and eating it, as we 'enjoy' all the benefits of membership whilst being able to persue an independent trade policy?
My personal opinion is that we look at every section of trade on it's own merit, one by one, stroke them off. It would take several years but overall, give businesses time to adapt and adjust.
The current timescale just feels a bit 'press the nuke button' to me. We'll deal with the fall out.
It's just my opinion though, right of wrong. Haven't really got time to get into any debates today unfortunately.
For the last few years Barnier has revelled somewhat in the confusion and dithering of the UK and has not been in any way helpful in allowing the UK to leave the EU in an orderly fashion . . . . . . and why should he have, after all he was seeking the best outcome for the EU.
The tables have now turned and Boris is now seeking the best outcome for the UK, and so he should, and is using all and every tactic to do so. What goes around comes around and is, in no small amount, been brought about by Barnier and the EU and, in no small measure, backed up by the rhetoric currently being espoused by Macron and his lieutenants.
Brooking10 said:
But you are one of the sensible ones ......
Not everybody voted for the collective point of view you articulate so clearly. Largely because they neither understood it nor could they articulate it in that way.
The schism this whole thing has created is deeper than many had envisaged
The daily gloating and invective evinced on this thread by a small group of increasingly rabid sounding individuals who round on anybody who dares suggest things might not be, or end up being, as rosy as described in the brochure is hugely unbecoming but more to the point indicative of what we have to heal.
We’ll work out a trade deal of that I’m sure - because ultimately all parties have to.
I have grave doubts it will be concluded within the allotted time period but we’ll all get there eventually.
The referendum and ensuing melee didn't cause the schism. It was a symptom. Not everybody voted for the collective point of view you articulate so clearly. Largely because they neither understood it nor could they articulate it in that way.
The schism this whole thing has created is deeper than many had envisaged
The daily gloating and invective evinced on this thread by a small group of increasingly rabid sounding individuals who round on anybody who dares suggest things might not be, or end up being, as rosy as described in the brochure is hugely unbecoming but more to the point indicative of what we have to heal.
We’ll work out a trade deal of that I’m sure - because ultimately all parties have to.
I have grave doubts it will be concluded within the allotted time period but we’ll all get there eventually.
That people cannot always articulate how they feel and what they perceive the issues to be doesn't mean they can be ignored/dismissed. Even when the way they elaborate their views seems illogical.
Indeed I'd go as far as to say THIS is one of the root causes of the schism we are seeing. That, and politicians using undercover, underhand means to get their own way without properly asking for permission.
Q: do we think the UK would have joined the EU in 1993 (/passed Maastricht) if it had been put to a referendum at that time? I'm not convinced it would.
I've said it many times over the last 3yrs, the EU would have done itself huge favours if it insisted on referenda at each treaty change, and spelt out the treaty details/articulated both the benefits and downsides at the time so they could be measured.
They didn't do this as they felt it was a bad idea. They didn't do this because they knew the end result did not match their political ambition. That was always destined to come unstuck IMO. I'm not sure we were the first example but am sure we won't be the last.
stongle said:
Those rabid sounding individuals are those keen to call millions of people racists. Really, the inability to understand cause and effect is astonishing.
That is simple reflection they are way out if their depth in a debate that is fundamentally driven by economics.
They should be recognising what was said by the senior EU institutions and pointing out such things as - readjusting the inflation metric is sensible given it
1) aligns with other models such as UK / US
2) the city housing bubble effects seen in Paris etc
Its not gaming the metric but sensible. But wait, not in twitter....
This has a far greater input into the negotiating long game than an imagined digital trade drop.
Cheeky misquote and re-contextualising there Chief !That is simple reflection they are way out if their depth in a debate that is fundamentally driven by economics.
They should be recognising what was said by the senior EU institutions and pointing out such things as - readjusting the inflation metric is sensible given it
1) aligns with other models such as UK / US
2) the city housing bubble effects seen in Paris etc
Its not gaming the metric but sensible. But wait, not in twitter....
This has a far greater input into the negotiating long game than an imagined digital trade drop.
Save your economics 101 for the idiots, I can just about keep up
You know I agree with you that this all about the money but interestingly you’ll find many who STILL see it as about politics, on both sides. The politics is done, finishes and isn’t going back in the bottle.
It’s that that we need to move on from and it’s that that underpins the schism.
The politics of triumphalism on one side and revisionism on the other don’t do any of our correspondents any favours.
Garvin said:
soupdragon1 said:
Sway said:
soupdragon1 said:
I think putting such a short timescale on a deal Boris has painted himself (and therefor, all of us) into a corner.
He would do better scrapping the deadline, and playing the long game, IMO.
Do it once, and do it right. Why should Brexit be like some Saturday night game show where you've got 60 seconds to grab as many shiny tokens as you can?
Boris choosing to make it like that has me very suspicious of his motives.
What does "right" look like to you? He would do better scrapping the deadline, and playing the long game, IMO.
Do it once, and do it right. Why should Brexit be like some Saturday night game show where you've got 60 seconds to grab as many shiny tokens as you can?
Boris choosing to make it like that has me very suspicious of his motives.
Whilst "doing it right", does that not come across as having our cake and eating it, as we 'enjoy' all the benefits of membership whilst being able to persue an independent trade policy?
My personal opinion is that we look at every section of trade on it's own merit, one by one, stroke them off. It would take several years but overall, give businesses time to adapt and adjust.
The current timescale just feels a bit 'press the nuke button' to me. We'll deal with the fall out.
It's just my opinion though, right of wrong. Haven't really got time to get into any debates today unfortunately.
For the last few years Barnier has revelled somewhat in the confusion and dithering of the UK and has not been in any way helpful in allowing the UK to leave the EU in an orderly fashion . . . . . . and why should he have, after all he was seeking the best outcome for the EU.
The tables have now turned and Boris is now seeking the best outcome for the UK, and so he should, and is using all and every tactic to do so. What goes around comes around and is, in no small amount, been brought about by Barnier and the EU and, in no small measure, backed up by the rhetoric currently being espoused by Macron and his lieutenants.
Liam Halligan said:
Since 2016, the UK has negotiated in a lackadaisical, slack-jawed manner. That must change. We need to dismiss “sequencing” from the outset, with all issues addressed simultaneously, including our defence and intelligence commitment, which, in the EU’s eyes, is priceless. Far too much is made of Brussels’ “formidable bargaining power”. Yet, amid bitter squabbling over the post-Brexit integration, the mighty Franco-German alliance is shattered – as even Piketty himself acknowledges.
The government is now far from "slack jawed and lackadaisical". Downing Street, Chancellor, Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary, the four big jobs are all now committed Brexiteers, like it or not. But Boris, comes the cry from usual corners whom like the EU, still don't get it.EU is underestimating the national resolve on this, which has been demonstrated by patience and repeatedly at the ballot box. Those who are interested in these things genuinely ask the question, if the EU can make a deal with another nation which doesn't involve unilateral alignment on rules and policies, open borders, fishing rights, agriculture etc, then why cannot it agree with UK.
It depends on your standpoint whether you view current EU sound bites as exhibiting strength, complacency or vindictiveness. I can understand why people think the first, all encompassing, irrefutable and unbeatable strength, I think they're wrong, there's a balance in reality, we just have to jointly get to it. If it turns out that it's down to the second or third reasons, ultimately the people across Europe and UK will be very unforgiving.
Edited by FiF on Tuesday 18th February 09:31
sisu said:
Brits abroad refer to themsleves as expats not immigrants, their own lack of assimilation is ok when they are in the Costa del Sol is different when the Spaniard has moved in next door. I think the Brexit will be good for Britain, much like a bloke who works for a big company moaning about everything being wrong with their life because of the company.
Now they have quit they can chose their own path. Some believe that this will be fantastic, but dont quite grasp that they dont have use of the company gym or fuel card.
In my experience Brits working abroad temporarily describe themselves as expats, those intending to stay permanently say they've emigrated.Now they have quit they can chose their own path. Some believe that this will be fantastic, but dont quite grasp that they dont have use of the company gym or fuel card.
Quite what the EU equivalent of a fuel card is I don't know. But if I worked for a big company I would certainly feel no obligation to stay permanently, especially if I had to pay them instead of them paying me.
sisu said:
amusingduck said:
Brooking10 said:
The schism this whole thing has created is deeper than many had envisaged
Does that not suggest to you that the referendum merely revealed the schism, rather than created it? Brits abroad refer to themsleves as expats not immigrants, their own lack of assimilation is ok when they are in the Costa del Sol is different when the Spaniard has moved in next door. I think the Brexit will be good for Britain, much like a bloke who works for a big company moaning about everything being wrong with their life because of the company.
Now they have quit they can chose their own path. Some believe that this will be fantastic, but dont quite grasp that they dont have use of the company gym or fuel card.
Now, what exactly is the UK asking for that amounts to "gym membership" or the "fuel card"?
What is the EU asking for, that's it's asked no other nation for in return for a FTA?
- control over employment and tax laws, plus internal product regulations.
- access to fishing stocks, with amounts harvestable decided by their committee.
- control of our financial services regulations.
- free access to our intelligence and security data.
DeepEnd said:
crankedup said:
DeepEnd said:
Can you stop moaning about how immigration has cursed your lives, I have been careful not to mention it in the posts above; Tuna has set up a thread for you to bang on about that.
You don’t set the rules in here mate, live with it, obviously you don’t like to hear of the very real negative effects the lousy EU experiment has had on some people. It is relevant and real life, as opposed to your unending support of the rotten EU.But it’s funny to watch the hypocrisy.
Blackpuddin said:
Brooking10 said:
We won’t get it done in 12 months
I wish I knew how people outside the negotiations have become so certain about this. Plus lots of precedent
Likely outcome, IMO, is a phased approach supported by an extension covering various areas
Very happy to take a bet and revisit in Jan
Brooking10 said:
Murph7355 said:
Alternative view - we've decided that our path doesn't align with a political construct that is no longer primarily about trade, and would like to revert to a trading arrangement only.
No hate. No invective. Choice. As provisioned for, albeit very poorly, within the political construct's own rules.
Why does everything have to be extreme?
But you are one of the sensible ones ......No hate. No invective. Choice. As provisioned for, albeit very poorly, within the political construct's own rules.
Why does everything have to be extreme?
Not everybody voted for the collective point of view you articulate so clearly. Largely because they neither understood it nor could they articulate it in that way.
The schism this whole thing has created is deeper than many had envisaged
The daily gloating and invective evinced on this thread by a small group of increasingly rabid sounding individuals who round on anybody who dares suggest things might not be, or end up being, as rosy as described in the brochure is hugely unbecoming but more to the point indicative of what we have to heal.
We’ll work out a trade deal of that I’m sure - because ultimately all parties have to.
I have grave doubts it will be concluded within the allotted time period but we’ll all get there eventually.
So was yours B10 with the exception of the part in bold. We do indeed have a schism which we have to heal but in the context of the PH Brexit threads you rarely miss an opportunity for a snipe and a dig. Healing will happen sooner with a conciliatory approach......stoking the fire with snide snipes isn't helpful.
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