How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)
Discussion
mike9009 said:
SpeckledJim said:
Jimbeaux said:
stongle said:
“ The ability to respond to or de-risk financial events is something the EU via its institutions does not have. We do,”
How is that? Genuine question. 
Interest rates rock bottom, growth and inflation the same, and the money pump working flat-out just to keep everyone standing still. What else is up the sleeve? Not much...
The interest rate thing, and divergent or varying speed economies is an issue for the EU. But at the regulatory supervisory level; the EU whole has a number of issues. In particular, in the event of a default / contagion event (like Lehman Brothers default), the ECB cannot pull the plug on central Clearing or exchanges without an EC resolution. This can take days / weeks. In that time, you are potentially dead. BoE, Fed etc, can do it in minutes. It's a bigger risk now, as we have increased central clearing of banking products so a contagion event could take out multiple cleaners - that's why so many do not want EUR clearing pulled out of London - better Capital / Margin buffers and a regulator that knows what it's doing.
Needing a political intervention in a firesale is a really, really bad set-up, and probably stems from the fact that the ECB is only 20 odd years old.
It's a low probability but high impact event, so it's taken very seriously. As in going back to the stone age serious. Oh, and in general the G20 takes a very idiosyncratic view on risks (and protections) for financial stability.
Helicopter123 said:
crankedup said:
Helicopter123 said:
djc206 said:
crankedup said:
Yes, and it’s a shame, and I mean shame, that the younger generations seem to have lost all context of familiy responsibilities.
When you say younger generations you mean the people in their 50’s, 60’s and even 70’s now who have all but abandoned the care of their parents to underpaid Eastern European’s?It’s certainly not the younger generations who have the spare cash to outsource care of their family members.
It is the Boomers who are dumping mum and dad into the care home.
Nothing new for you of course. Many of the baby boomers themselves are not that far away from life expectancy average, some will have reached that mark already.
The reality is as I pointed out earlier, it is the younger generations that appear, broadly speaking, to be guilty.
I must confess I am somewhat bemused by Brussellian logic here. In response to David Frost's speech together with the supportive comment from No10 around the Barnier staircase and Canada deal posted earlier in the thread, they have now released the slide below. It purports to show a x/y plot of sorts showing size of trade with a partner relative to geography and trade integration, however that is defined. Also please note the very carefully selected y axis value range, Lol.
So on the one hand they are saying trade with the UK is really really REALLY important, but on the other hand they are willing to risk that by imposing conditions significantly more onerous than any imposed on other trading partners. Dumb.
So on the one hand they are saying trade with the UK is really really REALLY important, but on the other hand they are willing to risk that by imposing conditions significantly more onerous than any imposed on other trading partners. Dumb.
Helicopter123 said:
Absolutely this.
It is the Boomers who are dumping mum and dad into the care home.
This Boomer moved to be close to his mum and dad, gave up his career to do a different job he could fit around helping nurse his Dad for seven years and then helped out to the extent that his mum could stay at home while she died of multiple cancers... So you can just sod off with your stupid trolling generalisations... It is the Boomers who are dumping mum and dad into the care home.
Helicopter123 said:
Dont like rolls said:
Helicopter123 said:
Those entering Residential Care due to age related frailty are typically mid 80s + so born pre 1935.
and where do you get that figure from ?2. My business provides advice to families that can include long term care planning
3. https://ipc.brookes.ac.uk/publications/What_makes_...
Please feel free to post evidence to the contrary.
Helicopter123 said:
1. I have a client who owns several nursing homes and we discuss this because :
2. My business provides advice to families that can include long term care planning
3. https://ipc.brookes.ac.uk/publications/What_makes_...
Please feel free to post evidence to the contrary.
It is a moving demographic.2. My business provides advice to families that can include long term care planning
3. https://ipc.brookes.ac.uk/publications/What_makes_...
Please feel free to post evidence to the contrary.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunit...
It is however a pointless figure in relation to the point of the conversation......
My example was based upon a boomer being born 1955.
If an reasonable assumption is made that Mum gave birth aged twenty years that would place her at her at an age of 85 years now. Average life expectancy for females is around 80 years.
Budgie seems to be struggling with this. Move that scenario forward nine years and it becomes obvious that Budgies stupid earlier assertion is just that, stupid. Of course exceptions can be found
as in your own situation, however drop the age back nine years and it’s then evident it’s even more stupid.
His/her link is out of date by 17 years !!! It’s enough for one of these
If an reasonable assumption is made that Mum gave birth aged twenty years that would place her at her at an age of 85 years now. Average life expectancy for females is around 80 years.
Budgie seems to be struggling with this. Move that scenario forward nine years and it becomes obvious that Budgies stupid earlier assertion is just that, stupid. Of course exceptions can be found
as in your own situation, however drop the age back nine years and it’s then evident it’s even more stupid.
His/her link is out of date by 17 years !!! It’s enough for one of these
crankedup said:
My example was based upon a boomer being born 1955.
If an reasonable assumption is made that Mum gave birth aged twenty years that would place her at her at an age of 85 years now. Average life expectancy for females is around 80 years.
Budgie seems to be struggling with this. Move that scenario forward nine years and it becomes obvious that Budgies stupid earlier assertion is just that, stupid. Of course exceptions can be found
as in your own situation, however drop the age back nine years and it’s then evident it’s even more stupid.
His/her link is out of date by 17 years !!! It’s enough for one of these
Not only out of date but based on a "structured" guestionaire based on the answers of a massive X section of 36 residents.If an reasonable assumption is made that Mum gave birth aged twenty years that would place her at her at an age of 85 years now. Average life expectancy for females is around 80 years.
Budgie seems to be struggling with this. Move that scenario forward nine years and it becomes obvious that Budgies stupid earlier assertion is just that, stupid. Of course exceptions can be found
as in your own situation, however drop the age back nine years and it’s then evident it’s even more stupid.
His/her link is out of date by 17 years !!! It’s enough for one of these
Still at least we now have an insight into the source of the endless supply of s
t budgie posts.Edited by gooner1 on Wednesday 19th February 22:44
SpeckledJim said:
Because if you've got many disparate economies with opposite and opposing problems and solutions all sharing a currency, then the remedial action for one might make the other patient worse, and so on.
Interest rates rock bottom, growth and inflation the same, and the money pump working flat-out just to keep everyone standing still. What else is up the sleeve? Not much...
Thank you. Interest rates rock bottom, growth and inflation the same, and the money pump working flat-out just to keep everyone standing still. What else is up the sleeve? Not much...
Earthdweller said:
Where’s the US ? China ?
Is this supposed to be some justification that we can’t have a trade deal because we are too close ?
It’s a graph of FTA, so no US or China.Is this supposed to be some justification that we can’t have a trade deal because we are too close ?
They may play hard because geography is a factor for them.
Who will blink first. I suspect it is still us as we need the trade more than them. Mind given recent govt policy it is hard to rule out a domestic scorched earth policy.
Sway said:
Perhaps they are maximising their position in the negotiation, because- it’s in their best interests
- they have the leverage to do so
Did they get to this level of detail before?
Is this really coming as a surprise to the master genius brexiters who have all the best moves?
Still at least Frost is a brexiter through and through. He can’t be accused of being an Olly.
Let’s hope common sense prevails for the sake of the UK.
DeepEnd said:
Sway said:
Perhaps they are maximising their position in the negotiation, because- it’s in their best interests
- they have the leverage to do so
Did they get to this level of detail before?
Is this really coming as a surprise to the master genius brexiters who have all the best moves?
Still at least Frost is a brexiter through and through. He can’t be accused of being an Olly.
Let’s hope common sense prevails for the sake of the UK.
DeepEnd said:
Perhaps they are maximising their position in the negotiation, because
- it’s in their best interests
- they have the leverage to do so
Did they get to this level of detail before?
Is this really coming as a surprise to the master genius brexiters who have all the best moves?
Still at least Frost is a brexiter through and through. He can’t be accused of being an Olly.
Let’s hope common sense prevails for the sake of the UK.
Oh s- it’s in their best interests
- they have the leverage to do so
Did they get to this level of detail before?
Is this really coming as a surprise to the master genius brexiters who have all the best moves?
Still at least Frost is a brexiter through and through. He can’t be accused of being an Olly.
Let’s hope common sense prevails for the sake of the UK.
t, the EU have a graph, that's us fked then. 
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