How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)
Discussion
gooner1 said:
DeepEnd said:
Perhaps they are maximising their position in the negotiation, because
- it’s in their best interests
- they have the leverage to do so
Did they get to this level of detail before?
Is this really coming as a surprise to the master genius brexiters who have all the best moves?
Still at least Frost is a brexiter through and through. He can’t be accused of being an Olly.
Let’s hope common sense prevails for the sake of the UK.
Oh s- it’s in their best interests
- they have the leverage to do so
Did they get to this level of detail before?
Is this really coming as a surprise to the master genius brexiters who have all the best moves?
Still at least Frost is a brexiter through and through. He can’t be accused of being an Olly.
Let’s hope common sense prevails for the sake of the UK.
t, the EU have a graph, that's us fked then. 
k!
Why didn't we learn?!
Vanden Saab said:
DeepEnd said:
Sway said:
Perhaps they are maximising their position in the negotiation, because
- it’s in their best interests
- they have the leverage to do so
Did they get to this level of detail before?
Is this really coming as a surprise to the master genius brexiters who have all the best moves?
Still at least Frost is a brexiter through and through. He can’t be accused of being an Olly.
Let’s hope common sense prevails for the sake of the UK.
From their point of view, what is worse?
A - UK with tariff free access not following any level playing field
B - UK not following level playing field and being hit with tariffs
A is clearly better than B for the UK.
However B sounds better than A for the EU potentially for their own economies.
What does the last 3 years tell you about who will blink?
What happened to no deal BJ? Folded like a cheap oven ready suit.
DeepEnd said:
Vanden Saab said:
DeepEnd said:
Sway said:
Perhaps they are maximising their position in the negotiation, because- it’s in their best interests
- they have the leverage to do so
Did they get to this level of detail before?
Is this really coming as a surprise to the master genius brexiters who have all the best moves?
Still at least Frost is a brexiter through and through. He can’t be accused of being an Olly.
Let’s hope common sense prevails for the sake of the UK.
From their point of view, what is worse?
A - UK with tariff free access not following any level playing field
B - UK not following level playing field and being hit with tariffs
A is clearly better than B for the UK.
However B sounds better than A for the EU potentially for their own economies.
What does the last 3 years tell you about who will blink?
What happened to no deal BJ? Folded like a cheap oven ready suit.
Robert Kimbell said:
The EU Commission plays political games while the EU27's business with its largest market in the world — the UK — burns.
German car exports to UK DOWN
Dutch flower exports to the UK DOWN
French wine exports to the UK DOWN...
...I hope that MDs of EU27 corporates are satisfied!
https://twitter.com/Rob_Kimbell/status/942480551029690368German car exports to UK DOWN
Dutch flower exports to the UK DOWN
French wine exports to the UK DOWN...
...I hope that MDs of EU27 corporates are satisfied!
Seems to me, already, a classic case of 'beggar thy neighbour' backfiring.
DeepEnd said:
Is it ridiculous?
From their point of view, what is worse?
A - UK with tariff free access not following any level playing field
B - UK not following level playing field and being hit with tariffs
A is clearly better than B for the UK.
However B sounds better than A for the EU potentially for their own economies.
What does the last 3 years tell you about who will blink?
What happened to no deal BJ? Folded like a cheap oven ready suit.
Though A is actually better.From their point of view, what is worse?
A - UK with tariff free access not following any level playing field
B - UK not following level playing field and being hit with tariffs
A is clearly better than B for the UK.
However B sounds better than A for the EU potentially for their own economies.
What does the last 3 years tell you about who will blink?
What happened to no deal BJ? Folded like a cheap oven ready suit.
If they really want to help the EU economies they would have a level playing field by making the EU more competitive, not the UK less.
DeepEnd said:
Is it ridiculous?
From their point of view, what is worse?
A - UK with tariff free access not following any level playing field
B - UK not following level playing field and being hit with tariffs
A is clearly better than B for the UK.
However B sounds better than A for the EU potentially for their own economies.
What does the last 3 years tell you about who will blink?
What happened to no deal BJ? Folded like a cheap oven ready suit.
Did you answer yet what political strings the EU placed with, for example, Canada?From their point of view, what is worse?
A - UK with tariff free access not following any level playing field
B - UK not following level playing field and being hit with tariffs
A is clearly better than B for the UK.
However B sounds better than A for the EU potentially for their own economies.
What does the last 3 years tell you about who will blink?
What happened to no deal BJ? Folded like a cheap oven ready suit.
I'm of the opinion that anyone can ask for anything. But it doesn't intrinsically make what is being asked for reasonable/sensible.
The EU are quite evidently concerned about what the UK could potentially do. They seem to still be clinging to notions of control (it's what politicos do). This wasn't a sensible position even with the disastrous May at the helm. It's even worse now with a PM with a large majority and advisors who seem to ensuring consistency of position. That battle is lost. They need to forget we were ever part of the political construct they created.
As for your BJ comment, that just sets you up for being the patsy you usually are on such predictions. If all that is offered is an unreasonable deal, BJ can still walk with no deal. Have patience (I know it's likely to be tough for you to keep quiet when you think you have the killer blow to prove you were right all along. But your experience should tell you it might save egg on face).
Murph7355 said:
Did you answer yet what political strings the EU placed with, for example, Canada?
I'm of the opinion that anyone can ask for anything. But it doesn't intrinsically make what is being asked for reasonable/sensible.
The EU are quite evidently concerned about what the UK could potentially do. They seem to still be clinging to notions of control (it's what politicos do). This wasn't a sensible position even with the disastrous May at the helm. It's even worse now with a PM with a large majority and advisors who seem to ensuring consistency of position. That battle is lost. They need to forget we were ever part of the political construct they created.
As for your BJ comment, that just sets you up for being the patsy you usually are on such predictions. If all that is offered is an unreasonable deal, BJ can still walk with no deal. Have patience (I know it's likely to be tough for you to keep quiet when you think you have the killer blow to prove you were right all along. But your experience should tell you it might save egg on face).
Or maybe the EU just don't trust the UK to play fair.I'm of the opinion that anyone can ask for anything. But it doesn't intrinsically make what is being asked for reasonable/sensible.
The EU are quite evidently concerned about what the UK could potentially do. They seem to still be clinging to notions of control (it's what politicos do). This wasn't a sensible position even with the disastrous May at the helm. It's even worse now with a PM with a large majority and advisors who seem to ensuring consistency of position. That battle is lost. They need to forget we were ever part of the political construct they created.
As for your BJ comment, that just sets you up for being the patsy you usually are on such predictions. If all that is offered is an unreasonable deal, BJ can still walk with no deal. Have patience (I know it's likely to be tough for you to keep quiet when you think you have the killer blow to prove you were right all along. But your experience should tell you it might save egg on face).
Boris had shown what a master statesman he is with his extension letter in October 2019.
Stay in Bed Instead said:
Or maybe the EU just don't trust the UK to play fair.
Boris had shown what a master statesman he is with his extension letter in October 2019.
There is a massive difference between tariff free trade being contingent on broadly comparable outcomes under oecd/WTO norms (the sort of 'level playing field' Singapore and Canada is considered to operate on, despite wildly different internal regs and laws to the EU) and demanding control of those internal regs and laws... Boris had shown what a master statesman he is with his extension letter in October 2019.
And that's ignoring the increased likelihood that we massively diverge to increase our global competivity in order to overcome the challenges of tariffs being applied to our exports to the EU in the event of no deal...
Murph7355 said:
I'm of the opinion that anyone can ask for anything. But it doesn't intrinsically make what is being asked for reasonable/sensible.
I'm not sure reasonable is really a thing, but sensible I can get on board with. We did this with Theresa May, the EU argued for things that ultimately were not sensible. May agreed to them for her own reasons and then Parliament knocked them back, then the public knocked back Parliament and the EU didn't get what they thought they'd got.
Now they're doubling down, refusing to learn that ultimately any agreement requires democratic consent in the UK. The way they're going Boris is going to struggle to sell the normal concessions that go with a Canada-style FTA, let alone that the British Museum has to lose it's marbles.
It doesn't matter whether he blinks or not as either way the democratic process will intervene and the EU won't get all this rubbish.
Sway said:
Well there are lots of unemployed Lib Dems hanging round in Brussels these days.....Digga said:
DeepEnd said:
Vanden Saab said:
DeepEnd said:
Sway said:
Perhaps they are maximising their position in the negotiation, because- it’s in their best interests
- they have the leverage to do so
Did they get to this level of detail before?
Is this really coming as a surprise to the master genius brexiters who have all the best moves?
Still at least Frost is a brexiter through and through. He can’t be accused of being an Olly.
Let’s hope common sense prevails for the sake of the UK.
From their point of view, what is worse?
A - UK with tariff free access not following any level playing field
B - UK not following level playing field and being hit with tariffs
A is clearly better than B for the UK.
However B sounds better than A for the EU potentially for their own economies.
What does the last 3 years tell you about who will blink?
What happened to no deal BJ? Folded like a cheap oven ready suit.
Robert Kimbell said:
The EU Commission plays political games while the EU27's business with its largest market in the world — the UK — burns.
German car exports to UK DOWN
Dutch flower exports to the UK DOWN
French wine exports to the UK DOWN...
...I hope that MDs of EU27 corporates are satisfied!
https://twitter.com/Rob_Kimbell/status/942480551029690368German car exports to UK DOWN
Dutch flower exports to the UK DOWN
French wine exports to the UK DOWN...
...I hope that MDs of EU27 corporates are satisfied!
Seems to me, already, a classic case of 'beggar thy neighbour' backfiring.
Brexit (unlikely, because nothing has changed yet)
British sentiment towards buying EU goods
British buyers tightening the purse strings
British buyers choosing a cheaper product from somewhere else
British buyers choosing a better product from somewhere else
Overall, there is a message in that tweet somewhere, we just need to figure out what it is.
I thought the Supreme Court ruling yesterday in the Micula case was interesting for two reasons:
I may be wrong but I sensed a bit of toughening up in the post- Theresa May, post- Lady Hale era, and
It highlighted just how much better off we are away from the tentacles of the CJEU. Not in relation to the present jursidictional transition period, but with respect to the way the CJEU and the European Commission have treated the parties in this dispute, both the State of Romania and the Swedish investors. Anybody arguing that London will lose its place at the top table in international trade needs to give their head a wobble.
I may be wrong but I sensed a bit of toughening up in the post- Theresa May, post- Lady Hale era, and
It highlighted just how much better off we are away from the tentacles of the CJEU. Not in relation to the present jursidictional transition period, but with respect to the way the CJEU and the European Commission have treated the parties in this dispute, both the State of Romania and the Swedish investors. Anybody arguing that London will lose its place at the top table in international trade needs to give their head a wobble.
paulrockliffe said:
I'm not sure reasonable is really a thing, but sensible I can get on board with.
We did this with Theresa May, the EU argued for things that ultimately were not sensible. May agreed to them for her own reasons and then Parliament knocked them back, then the public knocked back Parliament and the EU didn't get what they thought they'd got.
Now they're doubling down, refusing to learn that ultimately any agreement requires democratic consent in the UK. The way they're going Boris is going to struggle to sell the normal concessions that go with a Canada-style FTA, let alone that the British Museum has to lose it's marbles.
It doesn't matter whether he blinks or not as either way the democratic process will intervene and the EU won't get all this rubbish.
We has an election that produced a majority for the Tories. That's their democratic consent.We did this with Theresa May, the EU argued for things that ultimately were not sensible. May agreed to them for her own reasons and then Parliament knocked them back, then the public knocked back Parliament and the EU didn't get what they thought they'd got.
Now they're doubling down, refusing to learn that ultimately any agreement requires democratic consent in the UK. The way they're going Boris is going to struggle to sell the normal concessions that go with a Canada-style FTA, let alone that the British Museum has to lose it's marbles.
It doesn't matter whether he blinks or not as either way the democratic process will intervene and the EU won't get all this rubbish.
So long as Boris maintains support from his own MPs he doesn't need anyone's further consent to do whatever deal he can muster.
Sway said:
politico said:
The Commission insists it did not purposefully manipulate the chart to exaggerate the difference between the U.K. and the other countries. Asked about the apparent mismatch, the Commission spokesperson said there was "no mistake."
“The purpose of today's slide is for information and presentational purposes only," the spokesperson said. "The chart was generated with an Excel chart tool, based on data from Eurostat. The width of each bubble is proportionate to the total trade of each country."
Doubling down on making the diameter proportionate?! Who is that utter cretin “The purpose of today's slide is for information and presentational purposes only," the spokesperson said. "The chart was generated with an Excel chart tool, based on data from Eurostat. The width of each bubble is proportionate to the total trade of each country."
politico said:
That means the bubble representing the U.K. should be about 4.4 times larger than the bubble representing Japan. On the EU's chart, the U.K. bubble is more than 16 times larger than Japan's.
topsey.mod said:
NAR. I think still on topic. They are just widening the discussion, not derailing it?
I created a new volume when this topic was closed, as I thought it was closed for good. Could you delete the other thread pleasehttps://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...
Stay in Bed Instead said:
Or maybe the EU just don't trust the UK to play fair.
Boris had shown what a master statesman he is with his extension letter in October 2019.
What is this "fair" you speak of and how broadly does it apply. Boris had shown what a master statesman he is with his extension letter in October 2019.
For example, is it fair that Germany doesn't contribute its 2% to NATO? This, of course, leaves it able to spend the surplus on other stuff.
Why would us cutting VAT on certain products be "unfair" to the other 27? Once the transition arrangement is over, why would us offering a subsidy to industry 'x' be any different to the EU continuing CAP payments?
"Fair" can't be cherry picked. If the EU believes that the UK could apply policies which give it material advantage, why isn't the EU applying those policies itself for the good of its member states??
janesmith1950 said:
paulrockliffe said:
I'm not sure reasonable is really a thing, but sensible I can get on board with.
We did this with Theresa May, the EU argued for things that ultimately were not sensible. May agreed to them for her own reasons and then Parliament knocked them back, then the public knocked back Parliament and the EU didn't get what they thought they'd got.
Now they're doubling down, refusing to learn that ultimately any agreement requires democratic consent in the UK. The way they're going Boris is going to struggle to sell the normal concessions that go with a Canada-style FTA, let alone that the British Museum has to lose it's marbles.
It doesn't matter whether he blinks or not as either way the democratic process will intervene and the EU won't get all this rubbish.
We has an election that produced a majority for the Tories. That's their democratic consent.We did this with Theresa May, the EU argued for things that ultimately were not sensible. May agreed to them for her own reasons and then Parliament knocked them back, then the public knocked back Parliament and the EU didn't get what they thought they'd got.
Now they're doubling down, refusing to learn that ultimately any agreement requires democratic consent in the UK. The way they're going Boris is going to struggle to sell the normal concessions that go with a Canada-style FTA, let alone that the British Museum has to lose it's marbles.
It doesn't matter whether he blinks or not as either way the democratic process will intervene and the EU won't get all this rubbish.
So long as Boris maintains support from his own MPs he doesn't need anyone's further consent to do whatever deal he can muster.
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