How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)
Discussion
Banks are international entities with international exposure.
Our independence allows us to offer greater flexibility in the business and regulatory conditions they operate under (that doesn't automatically mean in favour of capitalist freedom) and the tools we can use should they need governmental support in the event of a crisis.
We no longer need to sit around a big table with two dozen argumentative nations with competing interests to come to decisions.
Albeit that being in Europe does, did, have advantages. Polarising to try and prove it was all good or all bad is an exercise in futility.
Our independence allows us to offer greater flexibility in the business and regulatory conditions they operate under (that doesn't automatically mean in favour of capitalist freedom) and the tools we can use should they need governmental support in the event of a crisis.
We no longer need to sit around a big table with two dozen argumentative nations with competing interests to come to decisions.
Albeit that being in Europe does, did, have advantages. Polarising to try and prove it was all good or all bad is an exercise in futility.
London424 said:
I see poor Leo is out of a job but also needs to negotiate the EU budget in the interim. Seems the EU solidarity isn’t looking so good for Ireland in the next budget. Having to pay more in and getting less back.
Who would have seen that coming??
Everyone?Who would have seen that coming??
The UK will no longer be paying in their amounts. Primary grade mathematics would easily predict the next step, surely?
janesmith1950 said:
Banks are international entities with international exposure.
Our independence allows us to offer greater flexibility in the business and regulatory conditions they operate under (that doesn't automatically mean in favour of capitalist freedom) and the tools we can use should they need governmental support in the event of a crisis.
We no longer need to sit around a big table with two dozen argumentative nations with competing interests to come to decisions.
Albeit that being in Europe does, did, have advantages. Polarising to try and prove it was all good or all bad is an exercise in futility.
It doesn't.Our independence allows us to offer greater flexibility in the business and regulatory conditions they operate under (that doesn't automatically mean in favour of capitalist freedom) and the tools we can use should they need governmental support in the event of a crisis.
We no longer need to sit around a big table with two dozen argumentative nations with competing interests to come to decisions.
Albeit that being in Europe does, did, have advantages. Polarising to try and prove it was all good or all bad is an exercise in futility.
Banking is increasingly operating under worldwide rules. As is accounting.
soupdragon1 said:
London424 said:
I see poor Leo is out of a job but also needs to negotiate the EU budget in the interim. Seems the EU solidarity isn’t looking so good for Ireland in the next budget. Having to pay more in and getting less back.
Who would have seen that coming??
Everyone?Who would have seen that coming??
The UK will no longer be paying in their amounts. Primary grade mathematics would easily predict the next step, surely?
But let them enjoy the sweet taste of what they think is “some foreigners suffering”. It could be their only brexit benefit (even though it is illusionary).
Garvin said:
There are some who, across the many volumes of this thread, have consistently stated that, even out of the EU, the UK cannot isolate itself entirely from any negative effects in the EU, the UK can only mitigate the effects.
The problem appears to be that the more the EU refuse to take action the worse the ultimate effects will be. Debt write-off is inevitable, is it not? What I can't get my head around is the magnitude of the fall-out this will cause - to the banks and to the politicians and general public of those nations that have to suck up the write-offs and the nature of the fall out when their public realise what their governments have done. Surely the EU is totally kaput at that point!
Is it possible to can kick for ever?
Ask the Japanese and Americans. The problem appears to be that the more the EU refuse to take action the worse the ultimate effects will be. Debt write-off is inevitable, is it not? What I can't get my head around is the magnitude of the fall-out this will cause - to the banks and to the politicians and general public of those nations that have to suck up the write-offs and the nature of the fall out when their public realise what their governments have done. Surely the EU is totally kaput at that point!
Is it possible to can kick for ever?
Brooking10 said:
It’s a question of whether one believes in mitigation or contagion.
There are some who believe that Brexit affords mitigation in the event of a Euro banking collapse.
There are others, me included, who believe our economic fortunes as far as any potential banking crisis are concerned are intertwined as a result of history and geography as opposed to membership.
Its both though.There are some who believe that Brexit affords mitigation in the event of a Euro banking collapse.
There are others, me included, who believe our economic fortunes as far as any potential banking crisis are concerned are intertwined as a result of history and geography as opposed to membership.
Mitigation - well known the ESMA / ECB and EC cannot coordinate in a crisis. They cannot pull circuit breakers, they have overly centralised risks - whilst engaging into a race to the bottom of capital and loss protection buffers (you want me to explain how EUREX and Deutsche Boerse became complicit in Cum Ex trading support, banana skins everywhere).
Any crisis leads to Contagion, that we are not immune. We may be out of the EURO - the fallout we are not. They cannot contain the liabilities so an EU wide bail in is a high enough probability event (or Italy on a grander scale). At the very least they end up with a fiscal headache - none can support. Those budget discussions that collapsed yesterday would look like Puffin Club trying to decide on Blue or Pink Fairy Cakes. If there is any form of crisis, we are going to get decades of economic policy laid bare. Using leverage / debt to counter for poor wage inflation (as is written everywhere), coupled with zero growth, zero inflation, savings timebomb and green initiatives - really isn't a conundrum anyone wants to or should be testing. These factors are not independent, they are largely interlinked.
The fallout is so painful, it totally alters the political construct and aims - probably into a fully federal state. That ain't ever going to fly here. You know it.
gooner1 said:
DeepEnd said:
Of course, it’s only about €3m/week less per EU nation. Buttons in the scheme of things.
But let them enjoy the sweet taste of what they think is “some foreigners suffering”. It could be their only brexit benefit (even though it is illusionary).
No " Johnny" DP?But let them enjoy the sweet taste of what they think is “some foreigners suffering”. It could be their only brexit benefit (even though it is illusionary).
DeepEnd said:
Crackie said:
DeepEnd said:
let them enjoy the sweet taste of what they think is “some foreigners suffering”.
Projecting about foreigners again DeepEnd 
Crackie said:
DeepEnd said:
Crackie said:
DeepEnd said:
let them enjoy the sweet taste of what they think is “some foreigners suffering”.
Projecting about foreigners again DeepEnd Some bloke uses “they and them” (probably to avoid the same reaction) and now you get all frothy because he’s not being specific enough?
El stovey said:
I had the decency to be specific and say you were a bit of a reactionary and you started banging on about me calling 17.4 million people thick racists. That’s hyperbole for you.
Some bloke uses “they and them” (probably to avoid the same reaction) and now you get all frothy because he’s not being specific enough?
TBF Bellend’s posts on this topic are deliberately inflammatory.Some bloke uses “they and them” (probably to avoid the same reaction) and now you get all frothy because he’s not being specific enough?
As others have said 'logically' the failure of either sides' economies will lead to mutual pain.
However, there is the political but illogical issue that the EU is rather desperate to discourage other members from leaving and so wish to make an example of the UK by inflicting economic pain.
However, there is the political but illogical issue that the EU is rather desperate to discourage other members from leaving and so wish to make an example of the UK by inflicting economic pain.
TriumphStag3.0V8 said:
Indeed, I notice he has fallen back to his go to phrases of masks slipping and echo chambers.
It truly is pathetic, albeit amusing to watch him get so angry at the same time.
Why don't the mods do anything about it when it's clearly at odds with the forum rules we all signed up to?It truly is pathetic, albeit amusing to watch him get so angry at the same time.
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