How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 13)

[Sway]

amusingduck said:

Stay in Bed Instead said:

Here's the quandary. Can I make a buck out of this?

What product is imported from the EU, may suffer high UK tariffs on WTO, and has a long shelf life so that I can sell on at a profit post 01/01/2021?

Dunno, but asking the internet is usually how most successful ventures start

Unlikely, seeing as the UK Gov have already stated their approach to tariff schedules will be based on slashing import tariffs on things the UK doesn't produce.

[soupdragon1]

Earthdweller said:

Murph7355 said:

On your last point, I don't see other countries insisting upon the same political levers.

They are used to not starting from that point and so it's not a "red line" that they'd typically even raise.

The reason for our current position is that the EU are not yet thinking of us as a third party. They still don't like that we've left and I suspect still think that we accepted these rules before therefore why wouldn't we now. They are clinging to remainer panic about harmed trade.

It might serve both sides better to start on WTO and revisit this a period down the line as a genuine third party if politics cannot be put to one side. Economically that would not help either side and would be a wasted opportunity. But it may end up being the only way to get sense to the fore.

From a UK perspective the implications of accepting the nonsense the EU are setting out are grave. It cannot happen.

Certainly WTO would shake the fruit from the trees

It would be a massive wake up call and show all
parties who are the winners and losers

Possibly the way to go I’d imagine it would rationalise thought

My own view is that it would hurt the EU more than the U.K. clearly more impact in some parts. I think the ROI would be decimated, Croatia not so much so

But, it might be the reset required

A race to the bottom and then see who can build back up the quickest. Not exactly a rational path to take, especially with what we are currently seeing in worldwide markets. If this uncertainty drags on, I think we'll be even quicker to see overall compromises from both EU and the UK. Its just political noise right now and I think this has been mentioned several times already on the thread. UK and EU start from their extreme wide positions and eventually we'll converge in the middle somewhere (assuming both sides are sensible of course)

[Sway]

soupdragon1 said:

A race to the bottom and then see who can build back up the quickest. Not exactly a rational path to take, especially with what we are currently seeing in worldwide markets. If this uncertainty drags on, I think we'll be even quicker to see overall compromises from both EU and the UK. Its just political noise right now and I think this has been mentioned several times already on the thread. UK and EU start from their extreme wide positions and eventually we'll converge in the middle somewhere (assuming both sides are sensible of course)

If the worldwide economy is struggling, surely that's exactly the time to strike with some aggressive approaches to international competivity?

[Stay in Bed Instead]

Sway said:

Unlikely, seeing as the UK Gov have already stated their approach to tariff schedules will be based on slashing import tariffs on things the UK doesn't produce.

And you believe that?

[Sway]

Stay in Bed Instead said:

Sway said:

Unlikely, seeing as the UK Gov have already stated their approach to tariff schedules will be based on slashing import tariffs on things the UK doesn't produce.

And you believe that?

Why wouldn't I? It's easy PR and economic win, that's in the gift of UKG.

[gooner1]

Stay in Bed Instead said:

Sway said:

Unlikely, seeing as the UK Gov have already stated their approach to tariff schedules will be based on slashing import tariffs on things the UK doesn't produce.

And you believe that?

Much more than you are/were not a remainer.

[Stay in Bed Instead]

Sway said:

Why wouldn't I? It's easy PR and economic win, that's in the gift of UKG.

Perhaps because the government are not trustworthy and they need to raise billions for Boris's spending spree?

[soupdragon1]

Sway said:

soupdragon1 said:

A race to the bottom and then see who can build back up the quickest. Not exactly a rational path to take, especially with what we are currently seeing in worldwide markets. If this uncertainty drags on, I think we'll be even quicker to see overall compromises from both EU and the UK. Its just political noise right now and I think this has been mentioned several times already on the thread. UK and EU start from their extreme wide positions and eventually we'll converge in the middle somewhere (assuming both sides are sensible of course)

If the worldwide economy is struggling, surely that's exactly the time to strike with some aggressive approaches to international competivity?

Yes, absolutely. What I mean is that both sides won't want to give an inch to the other- so either someone buckles (I don't see either side buckling) or they'll need to compromise and give half an inch each. Without that compromise, going hard towards Australia style deal will be so much more difficult if we're in a world wide recession at the same time.

[Murph7355]

soupdragon1 said:

A race to the bottom and then see who can build back up the quickest. Not exactly a rational path to take, especially with what we are currently seeing in worldwide markets. If this uncertainty drags on, I think we'll be even quicker to see overall compromises from both EU and the UK. Its just political noise right now and I think this has been mentioned several times already on the thread. UK and EU start from their extreme wide positions and eventually we'll converge in the middle somewhere (assuming both sides are sensible of course)

A race to the bottom of what? An oft used phrase with little meaning.

I don't disagree on what's happening right now...I'm not one of those that became incontinent 3.5yrs ago. Whether we can close in on agreement by December (or June as I think the EU started to note) is debatable. Said it before, but I suspect a phased approach will be likely here no matter what the EU note.

[s2art]

soupdragon1 said:

Yes, absolutely. What I mean is that both sides won't want to give an inch to the other- so either someone buckles (I don't see either side buckling) or they'll need to compromise and give half an inch each. Without that compromise, going hard towards Australia style deal will be so much more difficult if we're in a world wide recession at the same time.

You think? When they have a huge trade surplus with us?will be Both sides have a big incentive to do a deal.

[Mrr T]

The narrative from the BJ government is that the Canadian FTA is just an agreement on tarrifs and trade. Most newspapers are to lazy to challenge that.

For those interested here is a summary by chapter of the agreement.
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/ce...

It covers a lot of things on regulatory cooperation, competition, state subsidies, etc, etc.

The agreement is also not a stand alone agreement but build on a number of previous agreements which remain in force.

You have to look at the EU website to find them.

[soupdragon1]

Murph7355 said:

soupdragon1 said:

A race to the bottom and then see who can build back up the quickest. Not exactly a rational path to take, especially with what we are currently seeing in worldwide markets. If this uncertainty drags on, I think we'll be even quicker to see overall compromises from both EU and the UK. Its just political noise right now and I think this has been mentioned several times already on the thread. UK and EU start from their extreme wide positions and eventually we'll converge in the middle somewhere (assuming both sides are sensible of course)

A race to the bottom of what? An oft used phrase with little meaning.

I don't disagree on what's happening right now...I'm not one of those that became incontinent 3.5yrs ago. Whether we can close in on agreement by December (or June as I think the EU started to note) is debatable. Said it before, but I suspect a phased approach will be likely here no matter what the EU note.

Well its just that - a phrase. It basically means self harm with the view that you can cope with the self inflicted harm that you are doing, but that you can cope better than your competitor, so eventually, you hope to end up with a net win.

I agree about the phased approach. Very strong chance thats what we could see IMO.

[Crackie]

soupdragon1 said:

Crackie said:

Brooking10 said:

pgh said:

Tuna said:

wilful misrepresentation and deceit

Sums up some posters perfectly (sadly)


Caught the clip of Gove on Guido earlier. What an improvement in our negotiating stance from the Theresa years.

We’ve had wonderfully amusing irony from a couple
Of our hard line Brexiteer buddies today.

Exhibit A was our correspondent lauding a new report for its straightforwardness and reporting of fact which in fact relied not insignificantly on background briefing from No 10’s spinners

Now we enjoy exhibit B a condemnation of those who seek to wilfully misrepresent and deceive followed by the gem of “watching on Guido”

Keep ‘em coming they make for cracking light relief and are much funnier than the hardline remainer rants

Exhibit A...…...was from Soupdragon1.

The same Soupdragon1 who posted "IMPORTANT REMINDER: Clocks go back 46 years tonight!" and "The mask slips again Sway, we know your sort of lined up with Cummings"

He's no Brexiteer………..hard line or otherwise

I'm no Brexiteer and I'm no leaver either. Just posted that article as an example of a story that isn't twisted out of shape like many news articles we get these days.

I live in NI so all I care about is that we're given consideration in the whole piece. On the one hand, Boris says life will be great for NI - don't worry - but the political declaration says it may or may not be that simple - depending on what the eventual agreement turns out to be. That's where my vested interest is. I have no real passion for the UK or the EU - coming from where I come from, we're a bit of a misfit population with no real identity as such.

I think overall, that helps me be 'relatively' impartial with the Cummings and goings of the Brexit twists and turns

The only upside about living in NI is that if Brexit goes absolutely tits up, we can sort of quietly whistle and saunter back over to rejoin the EU and likewise, if Brexit turns out great, we can stay put and enjoy the land of milk and honey

I didn't mean to imply you were leaver...….or remainer. My point was that you were certainly not a hard line brexiteer; which was what had been posted.

Sajid Javid's "Cummings and goings" dig during PMQs the other day was good wasn't it.

[soupdragon1]

s2art said:

You think? When they have a huge trade surplus with us?will be Both sides have a big incentive to do a deal.

Is that not what I'm implying - both sides to do a deal? Your post is difficult to read.

[JNW1]

Mrr T said:

The narrative from the BJ government is that the Canadian FTA is just an agreement on tarrifs and trade. Most newspapers are to lazy to challenge that.

For those interested here is a summary by chapter of the agreement.
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/ce...

It covers a lot of things on regulatory cooperation, competition, state subsidies, etc, etc.

The agreement is also not a stand alone agreement but build on a number of previous agreements which remain in force.

You have to look at the EU website to find them.

Which all may be true. However, the EU are now saying they won't even offer us the equivalent of the Canada FTA despite previously suggesting a Canada Plus agreement as a feasible way forward. So what's changed since Mr Barnier prepared his famous staircase slide? Geographic proximity to the EU seems to be one excuse why a Canada-type agreement apparently isn't possible but I think he'll find the UK is located in exactly the same place it was when he suggested his Canada Plus solution back in 2017...

[soupdragon1]

Crackie said:

soupdragon1 said:

Crackie said:

Brooking10 said:

pgh said:

Tuna said:

wilful misrepresentation and deceit

Sums up some posters perfectly (sadly)


Caught the clip of Gove on Guido earlier. What an improvement in our negotiating stance from the Theresa years.

We’ve had wonderfully amusing irony from a couple
Of our hard line Brexiteer buddies today.

Exhibit A was our correspondent lauding a new report for its straightforwardness and reporting of fact which in fact relied not insignificantly on background briefing from No 10’s spinners

Now we enjoy exhibit B a condemnation of those who seek to wilfully misrepresent and deceive followed by the gem of “watching on Guido”

Keep ‘em coming they make for cracking light relief and are much funnier than the hardline remainer rants

Exhibit A...…...was from Soupdragon1.

The same Soupdragon1 who posted "IMPORTANT REMINDER: Clocks go back 46 years tonight!" and "The mask slips again Sway, we know your sort of lined up with Cummings"

He's no Brexiteer………..hard line or otherwise

I'm no Brexiteer and I'm no leaver either. Just posted that article as an example of a story that isn't twisted out of shape like many news articles we get these days.

I live in NI so all I care about is that we're given consideration in the whole piece. On the one hand, Boris says life will be great for NI - don't worry - but the political declaration says it may or may not be that simple - depending on what the eventual agreement turns out to be. That's where my vested interest is. I have no real passion for the UK or the EU - coming from where I come from, we're a bit of a misfit population with no real identity as such.

I think overall, that helps me be 'relatively' impartial with the Cummings and goings of the Brexit twists and turns

The only upside about living in NI is that if Brexit goes absolutely tits up, we can sort of quietly whistle and saunter back over to rejoin the EU and likewise, if Brexit turns out great, we can stay put and enjoy the land of milk and honey

I didn't mean to imply you were leaver...….or remainer. My point was that you were certainly not a hard line brexiteer; which was what had been posted.

Sajid Javid's "Cummings and goings" dig during PMQs the other day was good wasn't it.

LOL - it gave me a right chuckle! I think everyone in the HOC had a good laugh at that one. 'I'm not naming any names.....Cummings and goings'

[Sway]

Stay in Bed Instead said:

Sway said:

Why wouldn't I? It's easy PR and economic win, that's in the gift of UKG.

Perhaps because the government are not trustworthy and they need to raise billions for Boris's spending spree?

Currently, 80% of tariff reciepts are handed over to the EU.

So, a 75% drop in tariffs leads to a 20% increase in HMRC revenues. Add in the likely secondary uplifts in consumer spending (always nice having more disposable due to basic foodstuffs getting cheaper) and there's another uptick in government revenues - VAT and Corp Tax.

[don'tbesilly]

JNW1 said:

Mrr T said:

The narrative from the BJ government is that the Canadian FTA is just an agreement on tarrifs and trade. Most newspapers are to lazy to challenge that.

For those interested here is a summary by chapter of the agreement.
https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/in-focus/ceta/ce...

It covers a lot of things on regulatory cooperation, competition, state subsidies, etc, etc.

The agreement is also not a stand alone agreement but build on a number of previous agreements which remain in force.

You have to look at the EU website to find them.

Which all may be true. However, the EU are now saying they won't even offer us the equivalent of the Canada FTA despite previously suggesting a Canada Plus agreement as a feasible way forward. So what's changed since Mr Barnier prepared his famous staircase slide? Geographic proximity to the EU seems to be one excuse why a Canada-type agreement apparently isn't possible but I think he'll find the UK is located in exactly the same place it was when he suggested his Canada Plus solution back in 2017...

The level playing field has a distinct gradient and the goalposts have moved to each side of the halfway line

[Earthdweller]

Sway said:

Currently, 80% of tariff reciepts are handed over to the EU.

So, a 75% drop in tariffs leads to a 20% increase in HMRC revenues. Add in the likely secondary uplifts in consumer spending (always nice having more disposable due to basic foodstuffs getting cheaper) and there's another uptick in government revenues - VAT and Corp Tax.

And the effect on the EU ?

[DeepEnd]

amusingduck said:

It's just an attempt to invalidate the concept of the UK having control over it's alignment/divergence via the means of "if you can't list every divergence upfront, theres no point in having that control"

It's not very convincing.

It’s arguably a bit more pragmatic than that.

As with any trade deal you need to understand what sort of alignment you have in mind. This is not really that controversial when you think about it practically and it is not helpful to wind up the angry brigade to think it is.

You don’t enter a trade deal saying “I’ll do whatever I want thanks”.

I get that this is posturing but it’s mainly for the angry brigade and won’t help much with the EU.

I think we do need a view on where we want to misalign and then work through the consequences - we can always diverge more later, we will have that choice to rip up any trade deal we want and renegotiate. They maybe permanently under negotiation and evolution.