NATO China a Threat

[JuanCarlosFandango]

Macski said:

Russian did not retaliate to Turkeys downing of the fighter exactly because Turkey is in Nato, a far stronger force then the Russian military.

That's my point really. It emboldened Erdogan to escalate the situation when what the Russians were doing there, fighting ISIS, was pretty well aligned with our interests.

Macski said:

Also when Russia invaded Ukraine they did so by sending fighters and weapons not computer hackers. How confidant are you that if it was not for NATO Russia would be flexing its mussel far more then it is now, after all it is a country that seems willing to send assasins to poisen people.

It uses an MO which NATO isn't geared up to do anything about.

You can't be that confident of anything about Russia, including that it won't at some point flex its muscles anyway. But nor am I confident that it isn't sometimes a convenient bogeyman for the failings of western politicians. Or that the best way to face such a threat is NATO.

[JuanCarlosFandango]

Zetec-S said:

You say we don't have an expansionist Soviet Union, but we do have an emboldened Russia. Annexation of Crimea and the issues in Eastern Ukraine are driven by a desire for the country to reassert themselves on the international stage after 2 decades of perceived humiliation by the West.

In Estonia, ethnic Russians make up 25% of the population, there is some concern about Russian influence, especially in the east of the country. If it was not a NATO member then would Estonia be seeing a similar situation to that in Eastern Ukraine?

It's a whole set of complicated problems to which there is no easy answer, and likely no one catch all answer. My instinct is that we should be making a greater effort to bring Russia into the democratic world and less of an effort to treat it as a military threat, which could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Zetec-S]

JuanCarlosFandango said:

Zetec-S said:

You say we don't have an expansionist Soviet Union, but we do have an emboldened Russia. Annexation of Crimea and the issues in Eastern Ukraine are driven by a desire for the country to reassert themselves on the international stage after 2 decades of perceived humiliation by the West.

In Estonia, ethnic Russians make up 25% of the population, there is some concern about Russian influence, especially in the east of the country. If it was not a NATO member then would Estonia be seeing a similar situation to that in Eastern Ukraine?

It's a whole set of complicated problems to which there is no easy answer, and likely no one catch all answer. My instinct is that we should be making a greater effort to bring Russia into the democratic world and less of an effort to treat it as a military threat, which could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Whilst what you say makes sense, I'm not convinced that's what Russia wants. They've never experienced the benefits of a "proper" democracy, and the current political situation suits Putin (and the majority of the people) quite well.

I'm not implying it's anything like the same situation, but look back in history to 1930's Europe and how well the policy of appeasement worked then.

[Halb]

JuanCarlosFandango said:

It's a whole set of complicated problems to which there is no easy answer, and likely no one catch all answer. My instinct is that we should be making a greater effort to bring Russia into the democratic world and less of an effort to treat it as a military threat, which could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

yes

[JuanCarlosFandango]

Zetec-S said:

Whilst what you say makes sense, I'm not convinced that's what Russia wants. They've never experienced the benefits of a "proper" democracy, and the current political situation suits Putin (and the majority of the people) quite well.

I'm not implying it's anything like the same situation, but look back in history to 1930's Europe and how well the policy of appeasement worked then.

I'm not saying Russia would become a model democracy (whatever that is) tomorrow if we start being nice to them. But I don't really see it as a matter of appeasement. More a matter of taking a constructive approach to a country that does have an appetite for better government.

As for Putin himself, he has been basically running the country for 20 years already so if he was planning to conquer Europe he would have got a bit further than Crimea by now. Not that the annexing of Crimea was trivial but a cursory view of its history tells you it wasn't a simple land grab by an expansionist tyrant but another episode in a long running saga.

[jshell]

China is a threat, Russia less so. I think the chances of war on a global scale are dwindling fast. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12...