2019 General Election outcome predictions
Discussion
italianjob1275 said:
Sizeable conservative lead
Big labour losses in north/ midlands. Corbyn won’t resign
Lib Dem’s about the same as 2017. They will claim if you add their votes to the greens, everyone who didn’t vote, the dead and the pets of those who didn’t vote suggests a large swing towards remain and this shows a mandate for a people’s vote...
Brexit part won’t win any seats.
Saw some tweets this afternoon suggesting the Tories are going to clean up in Wales.Big labour losses in north/ midlands. Corbyn won’t resign
Lib Dem’s about the same as 2017. They will claim if you add their votes to the greens, everyone who didn’t vote, the dead and the pets of those who didn’t vote suggests a large swing towards remain and this shows a mandate for a people’s vote...
Brexit part won’t win any seats.
Lets have a punt at 375 seats (although hedging my bets and not saying who has the majority 
)
I think this election will throw up some nasty surprises and I'll be up till 1am watching the unfurling chaos.
Lot of labour rabble out at the moment, my local rag has a comments board rammed with some of the nastiest spite you could imagine. Beware the silent voter.
Brexit will play a massive part, the electorate are in one way or another, sick to the back teeth.
One other point I want to make, it's not much but a few months ago there was a council by-election in Bromsgrove, a massively strong labour seat. Incumbent died, with a 55% vote share. Tory candidate walked it, labours vote share more than halved.
It's not much to go on, but that, coupled with the silent voters, the brexit fatigue, and a myriad of other issues, a 420 win for the tories is a possibility.
Otherwise....
Labour will claim victory and momentum will get angry
Losing candidates backed by momentum will claim russian interference and vote rigging
Sturgeon will claim victory and a mandate for indyref2
That lib dem woman who's so shrill only bats can hear her will claim victory and a second referendum on brexit is what the electorate voted for
Parliamentary deadlock
5 more years of squabbling, and 5 more years that mirror the last 3.
Somehow, I don't think anyone wants that, to be quite blunt.
My GUT feeling is labour will be trashed.
)I think this election will throw up some nasty surprises and I'll be up till 1am watching the unfurling chaos.
Lot of labour rabble out at the moment, my local rag has a comments board rammed with some of the nastiest spite you could imagine. Beware the silent voter.
Brexit will play a massive part, the electorate are in one way or another, sick to the back teeth.
One other point I want to make, it's not much but a few months ago there was a council by-election in Bromsgrove, a massively strong labour seat. Incumbent died, with a 55% vote share. Tory candidate walked it, labours vote share more than halved.
It's not much to go on, but that, coupled with the silent voters, the brexit fatigue, and a myriad of other issues, a 420 win for the tories is a possibility.
Otherwise....
Labour will claim victory and momentum will get angry
Losing candidates backed by momentum will claim russian interference and vote rigging
Sturgeon will claim victory and a mandate for indyref2
That lib dem woman who's so shrill only bats can hear her will claim victory and a second referendum on brexit is what the electorate voted for
Parliamentary deadlock
5 more years of squabbling, and 5 more years that mirror the last 3.
Somehow, I don't think anyone wants that, to be quite blunt.
My GUT feeling is labour will be trashed.
TurboHatchback said:
Piginapoke said:
italianjob1275 said:
Sizeable conservative lead
Big labour losses in north/ midlands. Corbyn won’t resign
Lib Dem’s about the same as 2017. They will claim if you add their votes to the greens, everyone who didn’t vote, the dead and the pets of those who didn’t vote suggests a large swing towards remain and this shows a mandate for a people’s vote...
Brexit part won’t win any seats.
This Big labour losses in north/ midlands. Corbyn won’t resign
Lib Dem’s about the same as 2017. They will claim if you add their votes to the greens, everyone who didn’t vote, the dead and the pets of those who didn’t vote suggests a large swing towards remain and this shows a mandate for a people’s vote...
Brexit part won’t win any seats.
I don't think the Marxist scum realise how important an issue Brexit is for people. Especially in the North.
I will be stunned if there is anything other than a comfortable Conservative majority.
FX market is saying any CON majority will be narrower than previously expected. FX market often wrong (in the short term..!) for many many reasons.
I think Boris will get a workable majority (30+ seats).
If I were a spicy punter I’d be buying some GBPUSD calls, mainly because most participants appear to be heading in the other direction...
I think Boris will get a workable majority (30+ seats).
If I were a spicy punter I’d be buying some GBPUSD calls, mainly because most participants appear to be heading in the other direction...
AJL308 said:
Mine too but the large turnout so far concerns me. That usually favors Labour. Worrying to put it mildly.
Although if Labour are shredded on the back of a large turnout then they'll be out of power for a generation.
Also a lot of first time voters, who knows how they’ll vote...Although if Labour are shredded on the back of a large turnout then they'll be out of power for a generation.
Hopefully a hung parliament with just enough labour/Lib/SNP mps to push through a legally binding second ref with enough changes (EU citizens and over 16's can vote) to near enough guarantee we'll remain. Followed by another election where politics can return to normality and the Tories can go back to being the party who are good for business and stability. My actual money is on a Tory majority, followed by a disastrous end to the transition period next year, recession and a even further left labour government.
Pebbles167 said:
Hoping for a cons majority, fearing a hung parliament.
I think there has been some underestimation of students really coming out in force this time.
I agree with you I think there has been some underestimation of students really coming out in force this time.
Students want the free stuff, and the EU is paying for some of them to do 'research' studies especially in Wales & Scotland.
JustALooseScrew said:
his I fear is going to be a massive problem for the Conservative Party.
Over the puddle here in IRL I hear the UK Agri Dealers are shipping out to the middle east now, the UK is utterly stalled in selling into the EU.
One way or another it (Brexit) has to be sorted very rapidly, which ever way it goes people are to avoid another 3 years of this s
t.
It's hard for the man on the street to comprehend what Brexit really means but for a massive amount of international traders, many of them SMEs the stagnation is a huge barrier to moving forwards.
Boris has it half right with 'Let's get Brexit done'.
The capital flight under a Labour Government will be a disaster.
Brexit cannot be done quickly unless we leave without a trade deal with anyone. I think those who pay for the tory party might well want to keep their trade with the EU. We're looking at a year or so minimum.Over the puddle here in IRL I hear the UK Agri Dealers are shipping out to the middle east now, the UK is utterly stalled in selling into the EU.
One way or another it (Brexit) has to be sorted very rapidly, which ever way it goes people are to avoid another 3 years of this s
t.It's hard for the man on the street to comprehend what Brexit really means but for a massive amount of international traders, many of them SMEs the stagnation is a huge barrier to moving forwards.
Boris has it half right with 'Let's get Brexit done'.
The capital flight under a Labour Government will be a disaster.
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