Election 2019 V2
Discussion
turbobloke said:
If he plays his cards right and Labour keeps leaning so far to the Left it falls over again and again, 15 years isn't out of the question.
I’ll happily take a hefty wager with you right now Boris Johnson doesn’t manage fifteen years in office.
And it won’t necessarily be as a result of external opposition that he doesn’t.
Brooking10 said:
I’ll happily take a hefty wager with you right now Boris Johnson doesn’t manage fifteen years in office.
And it won’t necessarily be as a result of external opposition that he doesn’t.
turbobloke said:
irc said:
Boris played a blinder. 10 years of stable progressive govt ahead.
If he plays his cards right and Labour keeps leaning so far to the Left it falls over again and again, 15 years isn't out of the question.vaud said:
Brooking10 said:
I’ll happily take a hefty wager with you right now Boris Johnson doesn’t manage fifteen years in office.
And it won’t necessarily be as a result of external opposition that he doesn’t.
Hopefully not. I think 10 years is about right for a PM. If he learns anything from Thatcher and Blair I hope it's the importance of having a good successor. Both I think neglected this, probably through fear of creating a rival, with the upshot that their eventual successor went on to lose big. I know Major won in 1992 but he lost convincingly enough in 1997 to cancel that out.
Ideally he would want 3 strong candidates to run as a replacement when the time comes, and he should be looking for them now.
Ideally he would want 3 strong candidates to run as a replacement when the time comes, and he should be looking for them now.
JuanCarlosFandango said:
Hopefully not. I think 10 years is about right for a PM. If he learns anything from Thatcher and Blair I hope it's the importance of having a good successor.
Definitely, but there are no arbitrary limits here unlike the USA, and no basis for assuming what happened with e.g. the Thatcher government will happen again. Boris is no ideologue and is supremely adaptable, if he presides over a government that performs well and maintains the (now) blue wall then 15 years is on the cards with a decaying far-Left opposition. Brooking10 said:
FiF said:
Not quite sure what to make of this, is it an anti-Boris comfort blanket, or is it a statement about Labour / SNP both of whom suffer >50%
From Election Maps UK
GE2019 If not voting was a party (Apathy Party = Pink):
CON: 308 (-57)
Apathy: 218 (+218)
LAB: 89 (-113)
SNP: 22 (-26)
LDM: 9 (-2)
PLC: 2 (-2)
GRN: 1 (=)
SDLP: 1 (-1)
CON 18 Short of a Majority.
This is interesting and shows both of what you allude to:From Election Maps UK
GE2019 If not voting was a party (Apathy Party = Pink):
CON: 308 (-57)
Apathy: 218 (+218)
LAB: 89 (-113)
SNP: 22 (-26)
LDM: 9 (-2)
PLC: 2 (-2)
GRN: 1 (=)
SDLP: 1 (-1)
CON 18 Short of a Majority.
1 - a rejection of nationalist politics in each of Scotland NI and Wales (am including Unionists as a type of nationalism in NI)
2 - a lack of willingness in some of the most long-standing Labour heartlands to commit a new allegiance to the Tories but no tick for Labour Party if the day
Find me a map of the U.K. where all the areas where absof
kinglutely no bugger lives are highlighted in pink."Especially now that he’s revealed himself as a one nation Tory and made massive public sector and infrastructure spending and environmental pledges.
He’s becoming Tony Blair mark 2. Another “flexible” politics, centrist politician adopting whatever policies will keep him in power.
Like Blair, he should keep most people happy for a while as long as he avoids an unpopular war or another global financial crisis etc.
He’s becoming Tony Blair mark 2. Another “flexible” politics, centrist politician adopting whatever policies will keep him in power.
Like Blair, he should keep most people happy for a while as long as he avoids an unpopular war or another global financial crisis etc.
Digga said:
Brooking10 said:
FiF said:
Not quite sure what to make of this, is it an anti-Boris comfort blanket, or is it a statement about Labour / SNP both of whom suffer >50%
From Election Maps UK
GE2019 If not voting was a party (Apathy Party = Pink):
CON: 308 (-57)
Apathy: 218 (+218)
LAB: 89 (-113)
SNP: 22 (-26)
LDM: 9 (-2)
PLC: 2 (-2)
GRN: 1 (=)
SDLP: 1 (-1)
CON 18 Short of a Majority.
This is interesting and shows both of what you allude to:From Election Maps UK
GE2019 If not voting was a party (Apathy Party = Pink):
CON: 308 (-57)
Apathy: 218 (+218)
LAB: 89 (-113)
SNP: 22 (-26)
LDM: 9 (-2)
PLC: 2 (-2)
GRN: 1 (=)
SDLP: 1 (-1)
CON 18 Short of a Majority.
1 - a rejection of nationalist politics in each of Scotland NI and Wales (am including Unionists as a type of nationalism in NI)
2 - a lack of willingness in some of the most long-standing Labour heartlands to commit a new allegiance to the Tories but no tick for Labour Party if the day
Find me a map of the U.K. where all the areas where absof
kinglutely no bugger lives are highlighted in pink."turbobloke said:
Definitely, but there are no arbitrary limits here unlike the USA, and no basis for assuming what happened with e.g. the Thatcher government will happen again. Boris is no ideologue and is supremely adaptable, if he presides over a government that performs well and maintains the (now) blue wall then 15 years is on the cards with a decaying far-Left opposition.
Quite possible, and a nice thought! However 10, 15 or 20 years the succession point is still important IMO. it's where Thatcher and Blair fell down. My kids will quite possibly be around until the end of the century and I would love for them never to have to live under a Labour government of the likes we have seen.
Brooking10 said:
FiF said:
David Starkey being, well, David Starkey. Rude, direct, no punches pulled. 
https://youtu.be/s7Yzy6Rqrmc
Surprised you aren’t upbraiding for “ad homs” rather than celebrating him https://youtu.be/s7Yzy6Rqrmc
FiF said:
Calling him rude isn't exactly celebrating him. Now clear off, you got called out the other day for blatant ad homs, without any other comments of merit. Starkey, whilst being unnecessarily rude, as usual, also made some valid points calmly backed up by evidence. There is a difference.
That's me told ..... 
FiF said:
Brooking10 said:
FiF said:
David Starkey being, well, David Starkey. Rude, direct, no punches pulled.
https://youtu.be/s7Yzy6Rqrmc
Surprised you aren’t upbraiding for “ad homs” rather than celebrating him https://youtu.be/s7Yzy6Rqrmc
Both events look the same to me. Just that you agree with one issuer of the “ad Homs” but not the other.
SpeckledJim said:
Digga said:
Brooking10 said:
FiF said:
Not quite sure what to make of this, is it an anti-Boris comfort blanket, or is it a statement about Labour / SNP both of whom suffer >50%
From Election Maps UK
GE2019 If not voting was a party (Apathy Party = Pink):
CON: 308 (-57)
Apathy: 218 (+218)
LAB: 89 (-113)
SNP: 22 (-26)
LDM: 9 (-2)
PLC: 2 (-2)
GRN: 1 (=)
SDLP: 1 (-1)
CON 18 Short of a Majority.
This is interesting and shows both of what you allude to:From Election Maps UK
GE2019 If not voting was a party (Apathy Party = Pink):
CON: 308 (-57)
Apathy: 218 (+218)
LAB: 89 (-113)
SNP: 22 (-26)
LDM: 9 (-2)
PLC: 2 (-2)
GRN: 1 (=)
SDLP: 1 (-1)
CON 18 Short of a Majority.
1 - a rejection of nationalist politics in each of Scotland NI and Wales (am including Unionists as a type of nationalism in NI)
2 - a lack of willingness in some of the most long-standing Labour heartlands to commit a new allegiance to the Tories but no tick for Labour Party if the day
Find me a map of the U.K. where all the areas where absof
kinglutely no bugger lives are highlighted in pink."Shows complete dissatisfaction with labour, but still a reluctance to vote Tory. Boris will need to win them around to gain, or hold those seats, unless Labour ditch momentum and get their act together.
andy_s said:
He's just increased the minimum wage, that should make a few people happy, relatively of course.
Good for himI hope in his attempt to keep this new supporter base of poor / working class / northern / Welsh people, he inadvertently does some good and improves their lot.
One of the biggest mistakes people make is focusing on the ‘why’ or the inputs, rather than the ‘what’ or the outputs.
I’m perfectly happy with someone doing the right thing for the wrong reason.
I ended up stumbling across a weird corner of reddit where the content is exclusively "Radical Left" - and delivered through the medium of Simpsons references
What a weird and wacky place the internet is.
https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Leftorium/
El stovey said:
Especially now that he’s revealed himself as a one nation Tory and made massive public sector and infrastructure spending and environmental pledges.
He’s becoming Tony Blair mark 2. Another “flexible” politics, centrist politician adopting whatever policies will keep him in power.
Like Blair, he should keep most people happy for a while as long as he avoids an unpopular war or another global financial crisis etc.
Just noticed this. How dare a politician deliver what people want? He’s becoming Tony Blair mark 2. Another “flexible” politics, centrist politician adopting whatever policies will keep him in power.
Like Blair, he should keep most people happy for a while as long as he avoids an unpopular war or another global financial crisis etc.
Note that Blair did deliver much needed change and improvement in the early days of his leadership. There was a reason Labour stayed in power for so long. I can't forgive him for the war stuff, or the deeply misleading policy and media management that allowed problems to be embedded in the economy and public services, but it's a hell of a stretch to assume that any popular politician is heading for war and financial catastrophe.
Tuna said:
El stovey said:
Especially now that he’s revealed himself as a one nation Tory and made massive public sector and infrastructure spending and environmental pledges.
He’s becoming Tony Blair mark 2. Another “flexible” politics, centrist politician adopting whatever policies will keep him in power.
Like Blair, he should keep most people happy for a while as long as he avoids an unpopular war or another global financial crisis etc.
Just noticed this. How dare a politician deliver what people want? He’s becoming Tony Blair mark 2. Another “flexible” politics, centrist politician adopting whatever policies will keep him in power.
Like Blair, he should keep most people happy for a while as long as he avoids an unpopular war or another global financial crisis etc.
Note that Blair did deliver much needed change and improvement in the early days of his leadership. There was a reason Labour stayed in power for so long. I can't forgive him for the war stuff, or the deeply misleading policy and media management that allowed problems to be embedded in the economy and public services, but it's a hell of a stretch to assume that any popular politician is heading for war and financial catastrophe.
There was a bit of a worry that Boris was heading to the right pre election, but it all looks unfounded and it turns out he’s another big spending centrist after all, possibly.
I didn’t vote conservative this time but I’m actually quite optimistic about Boris now. Obviously it’s difficult to know exactly what Boris stands for but the indicators seem to be more a Blair than a Thatcher.
Reason for most to be optimistic and certainly infinitely more preferable to corbyn anyway.
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