2020 Retailers in trouble thread

[OzzyR1]

vaud said:

hyphen said:

Will anyone want to lease a space as large as a department store? Wonder how long they will stay empty.

Repurposed into flats? They did that with office space on Bessemer Rd...

Could be, there is a lot of investment money moving already from buy to let flats towards buy to rent.

That will be a big thing in the next 5-10 years, perhaps even a game-changer, especially in big cities like London.

[jakesmith]

OzzyR1 said:

Could be, there is a lot of investment money moving already from buy to let flats towards buy to rent.

That will be a big thing in the next 5-10 years, perhaps even a game-changer, especially in big cities like London.

What’s the difference

[Jobbo]

vaud said:

hyphen said:

Will anyone want to lease a space as large as a department store? Wonder how long they will stay empty.

Repurposed into flats? They did that with office space on Bessemer Rd...

Office to residential is permitted without planning consent. That does not apply to shops.

[Robertj21a]

Jobbo said:

vaud said:

hyphen said:

Will anyone want to lease a space as large as a department store? Wonder how long they will stay empty.

Repurposed into flats? They did that with office space on Bessemer Rd...

Office to residential is permitted without planning consent. That does not apply to shops.

Presumably, most enlightened councils would approve a change from shops to residential if the retail area was clearly beyond redemption ?

[toohuge]

It'd be interesting to see whether you could lease these spaces and convert them into a micro hotel - high density accommodation, excellent access links and perfect for travelers wanting to be in the centre of town.

[eccles]

toohuge said:

It'd be interesting to see whether you could lease these spaces and convert them into a micro hotel - high density accommodation, excellent access links and perfect for travelers wanting to be in the centre of town.

You mean like a Travelodge?

[loafer123]

Brooking10 said:

loafer123 said:

It’s already owned by the lenders, they just haven’t realised it yet.

You think ?

Yes. And I have been quoted in the Sunday broadsheets and spoken at industry conferences saying the same thing.

If you look at their last accounts, on something like page 36 (I can’t recall exactly) they make a statement that their continuing solvency is subject to them being able to renew their existing debt terms on expiry.

They have no chance of doing that, given the increased leverage and risk and reduced appetite for lending in the sector.

Are you an Intu fan then?

[jakesmith]

jakesmith said:

OzzyR1 said:

Could be, there is a lot of investment money moving already from buy to let flats towards buy to rent.

That will be a big thing in the next 5-10 years, perhaps even a game-changer, especially in big cities like London.

What’s the difference

Anyone please?

[alangla]

hyphen said:

Tango13 said:

techiedave said:

List of Debenhams store closures
The Guardian reports that the following locations are set to close later this month.
Altrincham, Greater Manchester – January 11
Birmingham The Fort – January 11
Kirkcaldy, Fife – January 11
Walton-on-Thames, Surrey – January 11
Wandsworth, London – January 11
Wolverhampton – January 11
Chatham, Kent – January 15
Great Yarmouth, Norfolk – January 15
Slough, Berkshire – January 15
Stockton-on-Tees, Co Durham – January 15
Welwyn, Herfordshire – January 15
Witney, Oxfordshire – January 15
Ashford, Kent – January 19
Canterbury, Kent – January 19
Eastbourne, East Sussex – January 19
Folkestone, Kent – January 19
Southport, Merseyside – January 19
Southsea, Portsmouth – January 19
Wimbledon, London – January 19

The one in Welwyn Garden City doesn't surprise me at all, less than a minutes walk from either a John Lewis or a Marks & Spencer

Will anyone want to lease a space as large as a department store? Wonder how long they will stay empty.

Going to be fun for landlords in Kirkcaldy. That’s the M&S and Debenhams now gone.

[kiethton]

Robertj21a said:

Jobbo said:

vaud said:

hyphen said:

Will anyone want to lease a space as large as a department store? Wonder how long they will stay empty.

Repurposed into flats? They did that with office space on Bessemer Rd...

Office to residential is permitted without planning consent. That does not apply to shops.

Presumably, most enlightened councils would approve a change from shops to residential if the retail area was clearly beyond redemption ?

Be very difficult to convert them into flats:

The space itself isn’t supportive of doing so - windows, access, services etc etc.

Carving them out of a shopping centre won’t work in most circumstances - they aren’t always at one end of the centre. Outside of London and the south east, even assuming a 0 land value, the costs of developing them won’t be covered by their final value meaning it’s a no-go from the start.

[Jobbo]

Robertj21a said:

Presumably, most enlightened councils would approve a change from shops to residential if the retail area was clearly beyond redemption ?

You’d hope so but it’s a risk for any developer, lots of money required to achieve planning, and its by no means certain or quick.

Since it would be private developers spending their own money it would be much more prudent to find former offices to convert.

[loafer123]

jakesmith said:

jakesmith said:

OzzyR1 said:

Could be, there is a lot of investment money moving already from buy to let flats towards buy to rent.

That will be a big thing in the next 5-10 years, perhaps even a game-changer, especially in big cities like London.

What’s the difference

Anyone please?

Not a huge difference but Build to rent involves flats designed specifically for renting In blocks, gaining operational efficiency and professional management.

I would rather have commercial, personally, as total returns aren’t particularly exciting in BTR.

[vaud]

toohuge said:

It'd be interesting to see whether you could lease these spaces and convert them into a micro hotel - high density accommodation, excellent access links and perfect for travelers wanting to be in the centre of town.

Would possibly need significant structural changes for fire regs etc

[Cheib]

kiethton said:

Robertj21a said:

Jobbo said:

vaud said:

hyphen said:

Will anyone want to lease a space as large as a department store? Wonder how long they will stay empty.

Repurposed into flats? They did that with office space on Bessemer Rd...

Office to residential is permitted without planning consent. That does not apply to shops.

Presumably, most enlightened councils would approve a change from shops to residential if the retail area was clearly beyond redemption ?

Be very difficult to convert them into flats:

The space itself isn’t supportive of doing so - windows, access, services etc etc.

Carving them out of a shopping centre won’t work in most circumstances - they aren’t always at one end of the centre. Outside of London and the south east, even assuming a 0 land value, the costs of developing them won’t be covered by their final value meaning it’s a no-go from the start.

Case in point of how difficult these things are is the Lewis’s building in Liverpool which was a big department store....it’s been converted into a combination of offices, hotels and retail units...together with improving access to Central Station. It’s years behind schedule and had been very complex. That was an iconic building in Liverpool....in most cases I am sure it’s cheaper to start again.

[anonymous-user]

loafer123 said:

Not a huge difference but Build to rent involves flats designed specifically for renting In blocks, gaining operational efficiency and professional management.

I would rather have commercial, personally, as total returns aren’t particularly exciting in BTR.

One of the core underlying points of this thread is that there is a significant oversupply of commercial space.

100% of a void is not an exciting return.

[loafer123]

Brooking10 said:

One of the core underlying points of this thread is that there is a significant oversupply of commercial retail space.

Important amendment above.

[anonymous-user]

loafer123 said:

Important amendment above.

Fair point but it’s still a conundrum as regards how to repurpose existing large scale retail space, especially in city centres.

It’s a broadbrush statement but in the main we are oversupplied on office space, hotel conversion can be prohibitively expensive and so such units best lend themselves to resi in some form or another.

[loafer123]

Brooking10 said:

loafer123 said:

Important amendment above.

Fair point but it’s still a conundrum as regards how to repurpose existing large scale retail space, especially in city centres.

It’s a broadbrush statement but in the main we are oversupplied on office space, hotel conversion can be prohibitively expensive and so such units best lend themselves to resi in some form or another.

I agree that repurposing retail, especially shopping centres, will be tough.

I disagree that we are oversupplied with offices. PD rights to convert offices to residential has taken huge volumes out of the market, and most markets are relatively balanced.

Then there is the booming industrial market and burgeoning alternatives...

[anonymous-user]

loafer123 said:

I agree that repurposing retail, especially shopping centres, will be tough.

I disagree that we are oversupplied with offices. PD rights to convert offices to residential has taken huge volumes out of the market, and most markets are relatively balanced.

Then there is the booming industrial market and burgeoning alternatives...

I think ref office space it’s a bit of a balancing act. Yes they there is still demand in larger cities but I think repurposing dept stores in some of the smaller provincial locations en masse to office space is going to be a struggle.

The last bit interests me and it’s not an area I am very familiar with so I struggle to see how city/town centre retail space can be mapped to an eventual industrial usage.

[loafer123]

Brooking10 said:

loafer123 said:

I agree that repurposing retail, especially shopping centres, will be tough.

I disagree that we are oversupplied with offices. PD rights to convert offices to residential has taken huge volumes out of the market, and most markets are relatively balanced.

Then there is the booming industrial market and burgeoning alternatives...

I think ref office space it’s a bit of a balancing act. Yes they there is still demand in larger cities but I think repurposing dept stores in some of the smaller provincial locations en masse to office space is going to be a struggle.

The last bit interests me and it’s not an area I am very familiar with so I struggle to see how city/town centre retail space can be mapped to an eventual industrial usage.

Sorry, you misunderstand me - I wasn’t suggesting conversion of retail to those uses, just that there are other commercial markets than retail which are doing fine.

In respect of repurposing of retail, I don’t worry about High Street retail...plenty of ways of doing that - it is shopping centres in particular that will be obsolescent and will have to be knocked down, hence my prognosis for Intu.