Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?
Discussion
bradders said:
Cant read it all behind paywall, but hardly a surprise!! Cruising has had a resurgence the last 5 years, fuelled by the availability of strapping up one's house and living the high life before ending up in a home being paid for by the rest of us! (LOL).
There's often cases of outbreaks of the s
ts and stuff, caused by poor hygeine, communal eating areas, and just the pressure of feeding and watering so many people day in day out in a confined space. So this is no surprise IMO. Again, I suspect all the people on board putting pressure on a port to take them knew, or suspected someone had it and just wanted "out".
poo at Paul's said:
Cant read it all behind paywall, but hardly a surprise!!
Cruising has had a resurgence the last 5 years, fuelled by the availability of strapping up one's house and living the high life before ending up in a home being paid for by the rest of us! (LOL).
There's often cases of outbreaks of the sts and stuff, caused by poor hygeine, communal eating areas, and just the pressure of feeding and watering so many people day in day out in a confined space. So this is no surprise IMO.
Again, I suspect all the people on board putting pressure on a port to take them knew, or suspected someone had it and just wanted "out".
I simply can’t believe it’s not far more widespread in Asia than is being reported - for someone on a random cruise to pick it up in Hong Kong when they have few reported cases seems remote at best. It must be utterly rife. Cruising has had a resurgence the last 5 years, fuelled by the availability of strapping up one's house and living the high life before ending up in a home being paid for by the rest of us! (LOL).
There's often cases of outbreaks of the s
ts and stuff, caused by poor hygeine, communal eating areas, and just the pressure of feeding and watering so many people day in day out in a confined space. So this is no surprise IMO. Again, I suspect all the people on board putting pressure on a port to take them knew, or suspected someone had it and just wanted "out".
bradders said:
Which suggests maybe a longer incubation period than first suggested. Not good. I still can't believe this whole thing is being played down until we really know for sure.
Maxf said:
I simply can’t believe it’s not far more widespread in Asia than is being reported - for someone on a random cruise to pick it up in Hong Kong when they have few reported cases seems remote at best. It must be utterly rife.
It must be rife. And mostly harmless.Which makes you ponder why Wuhan has had it so ‘bad’
Pollution?
Something else going on there and using this virus as a cover?
It appears to take quite a long time, weeks, from the appearance of symptoms to people becoming seriously ill.
It appears to have potentially quite a long incubation period before people become ill.
Wuhan only confirmed cases of pneumonia at the end of December - they must have been infected late November / early December. The first death was confirmed January 11th. Thousands of deaths in Wuhan since, but tens of thousands of infected people.
It's a bit soon to be counting our chickens and thinking there is something special about Wuhan which means this only kills people there. If we get six weeks into a major outbreak outside China and people still aren't dying, then maybe relax.
It appears to have potentially quite a long incubation period before people become ill.
Wuhan only confirmed cases of pneumonia at the end of December - they must have been infected late November / early December. The first death was confirmed January 11th. Thousands of deaths in Wuhan since, but tens of thousands of infected people.
It's a bit soon to be counting our chickens and thinking there is something special about Wuhan which means this only kills people there. If we get six weeks into a major outbreak outside China and people still aren't dying, then maybe relax.
otolith said:
It appears to take quite a long time, weeks, from the appearance of symptoms to people becoming seriously ill.
It appears to have potentially quite a long incubation period before people become ill.
Wuhan only confirmed cases of pneumonia at the end of December - they must have been infected late November / early December. The first death was confirmed January 11th. Thousands of deaths in Wuhan since, but tens of thousands of infected people.
It's a bit soon to be counting our chickens and thinking there is something special about Wuhan which means this only kills people there. If we get six weeks into a major outbreak outside China and people still aren't dying, then maybe relax.
It’s not even a slight worry at the moment to a lot of people. People are going about their daily business as normal as they should. It appears to have potentially quite a long incubation period before people become ill.
Wuhan only confirmed cases of pneumonia at the end of December - they must have been infected late November / early December. The first death was confirmed January 11th. Thousands of deaths in Wuhan since, but tens of thousands of infected people.
It's a bit soon to be counting our chickens and thinking there is something special about Wuhan which means this only kills people there. If we get six weeks into a major outbreak outside China and people still aren't dying, then maybe relax.
It’s been well over 6 weeks since it started in China and hasn’t broken out elsewhere so far in any major way.
p1stonhead said:
It’s not even a slight worry at the moment to a lot of people. People are going about their daily business as normal as they should.
It’s been well over 6 weeks since it started in China and hasn’t broken out elsewhere so far in any major way.
I doubt the 454 on board the cruise ship would agree with that.It’s been well over 6 weeks since it started in China and hasn’t broken out elsewhere so far in any major way.
And who are you to speak for the worlds entire population???
Better stick with the 1m around you with your opinions
Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 18th February 10:22
p1stonhead said:
otolith said:
It appears to take quite a long time, weeks, from the appearance of symptoms to people becoming seriously ill.
It appears to have potentially quite a long incubation period before people become ill.
Wuhan only confirmed cases of pneumonia at the end of December - they must have been infected late November / early December. The first death was confirmed January 11th. Thousands of deaths in Wuhan since, but tens of thousands of infected people.
It's a bit soon to be counting our chickens and thinking there is something special about Wuhan which means this only kills people there. If we get six weeks into a major outbreak outside China and people still aren't dying, then maybe relax.
It’s not even a slight worry at the moment to a lot of people. People are going about their daily business as normal as they should. It appears to have potentially quite a long incubation period before people become ill.
Wuhan only confirmed cases of pneumonia at the end of December - they must have been infected late November / early December. The first death was confirmed January 11th. Thousands of deaths in Wuhan since, but tens of thousands of infected people.
It's a bit soon to be counting our chickens and thinking there is something special about Wuhan which means this only kills people there. If we get six weeks into a major outbreak outside China and people still aren't dying, then maybe relax.
It’s been well over 6 weeks since it started in China and hasn’t broken out elsewhere so far in any major way.
Because it hasn't broken out in any major way elsewhere yet, we cannot assume that if it does so the consequences will be any different to those in Wuhan.
V6 Pushfit said:
p1stonhead said:
It’s not even a slight worry at the moment to a lot of people. People are going about their daily business as normal as they should.
It’s been well over 6 weeks since it started in China and hasn’t broken out elsewhere so far in any major way.
I doubt the 454 on board the cruise ship would agree with that.It’s been well over 6 weeks since it started in China and hasn’t broken out elsewhere so far in any major way.
None are dead. Are any even ‘very’ ill?
This cruise ship had 475 sick with norivirus
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/...
Edited by p1stonhead on Tuesday 18th February 10:26
p1stonhead said:
454 people in a confined space. Lots of diseases have spread around cruises before. Not surprising at all.
None are dead. Are any even ‘very’ ill?
Indeed. It's unfortunate, but hardly the end of the world. None are dead. Are any even ‘very’ ill?
If anything it feels a little inhumane keeping everyone on the ship waiting to get infected by the staff.
otolith said:
It appears to take quite a long time, weeks, from the appearance of symptoms to people becoming seriously ill.
It appears to have potentially quite a long incubation period before people become ill.
Wuhan only confirmed cases of pneumonia at the end of December - they must have been infected late November / early December. The first death was confirmed January 11th. Thousands of deaths in Wuhan since, but tens of thousands of infected people.
It's a bit soon to be counting our chickens and thinking there is something special about Wuhan which means this only kills people there. If we get six weeks into a major outbreak outside China and people still aren't dying, then maybe relax.
I agree. I think the vast majority people in the UK are probably not really doing anything differently yet, and are not overly concerned at the moment (unless they maybe happen to live next door to a confirmed case).It appears to have potentially quite a long incubation period before people become ill.
Wuhan only confirmed cases of pneumonia at the end of December - they must have been infected late November / early December. The first death was confirmed January 11th. Thousands of deaths in Wuhan since, but tens of thousands of infected people.
It's a bit soon to be counting our chickens and thinking there is something special about Wuhan which means this only kills people there. If we get six weeks into a major outbreak outside China and people still aren't dying, then maybe relax.
But... it’s still too soon I think to think that couldn’t change in the coming weeks. WHO head honcho said yesterday that we are in a window of opportunity to try and contain it and that we don’t know how long the window will last for.
p1stonhead said:
454 people in a confined space. Lots of diseases have spread around cruises before. Not surprising at all.
None are dead. Are any even ‘very’ ill?
How long have they been symptomatic? When I looked at this the other day, even with a very much higher than realistic death rate we wouldn't expect deaths yet.None are dead. Are any even ‘very’ ill?
otolith said:
p1stonhead said:
454 people in a confined space. Lots of diseases have spread around cruises before. Not surprising at all.
None are dead. Are any even ‘very’ ill?
How long have they been symptomatic? When I looked at this the other day, even with a very much higher than realistic death rate we wouldn't expect deaths yet.None are dead. Are any even ‘very’ ill?
CoolHands said:
Good job they confined them to the ship, otherwise they would have all been running around giving it to the rest of us.
Erm...https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/17/coro...
This Twitter thread summaries the whole fatality rate debacle quite well.
Please don’t respond to this and dredge this up all over again!
https://twitter.com/adamjkucharski/status/12297080...
Please don’t respond to this and dredge this up all over again!
https://twitter.com/adamjkucharski/status/12297080...
Taylor James said:
Prizam said:
Stuff plus
What we do know....
You missed out that we know that worldwide it has killed one elderly Chinese lady and that everyone else who has contracted it has not suffered serious symptoms and has fully recovered in a few days.What we do know....
Meanwhile, based on the last decade or so, around 30,000 people will die of 'normal' flu in this country in 2020 and more than that will die of sepsis.
The key question here is... Why is China different from the rest of the world? Pollution and smokers, yes. But can that alone count for the massive amount of deaths? It's Unlikely in my view. Though certainly will account for some.
Speaking with a virologist at the weekend, she didn't seem massively concerned, though did say they don't have a good delta for the virus yet, so tests are hugely inaccurate right now.
The long term for the UK... I think this will rattle on through the summer in relatively low numbers but not really pick up until next winter. Then we will start to see some big issues. hopefully we will know a lot more by then and have a cure or vaxine.
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