Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?
Discussion
V6 Pushfit said:
I’ve given updated figures for the last 2 weeks, and explained how they were calculated.
All those that jumped on it desperate to say they were wrong haven’t responded to requests for their own alternative.
I’ve also said several times I didn’t want it to be high, and was looking for reasons why it could be lower but the TT of I would rather attack the messenger than discuss the message in any meaningful way.
The TT of I clearly blindly accept what they’re told without the faintest understanding of what the reality is given the core information. Nothing will change that, and after all it’s what Govt are hoping we’ll all be like.
Either you can't read or something else, everytime you have asked me my calculations I have done and it comes out about 2%. All those that jumped on it desperate to say they were wrong haven’t responded to requests for their own alternative.
I’ve also said several times I didn’t want it to be high, and was looking for reasons why it could be lower but the TT of I would rather attack the messenger than discuss the message in any meaningful way.
The TT of I clearly blindly accept what they’re told without the faintest understanding of what the reality is given the core information. Nothing will change that, and after all it’s what Govt are hoping we’ll all be like.
Again for your benefit only 75781 confirmed, deaths 2,130 so 2.8%.
How about a friendly wager towards a charity of your choice that my sustained opinion/calculation of 2% is closer than your initial calculations of 30%?
£20 ?
Jim on the hill said:
Either you can't read or something else, everytime you have asked me my calculations I have done and it comes out about 2%.
Again for your benefit only 75781 confirmed, deaths 2,130 so 2.8%.
How about a friendly wager towards a charity of your choice that my sustained opinion/calculation of 2% is closer than your initial calculations of 30%?
£20 ?
Quick call China immediately and tell them that 55,000 patients need releasing as they’re all going to be fine.Again for your benefit only 75781 confirmed, deaths 2,130 so 2.8%.
How about a friendly wager towards a charity of your choice that my sustained opinion/calculation of 2% is closer than your initial calculations of 30%?
£20 ?
FFS
V6 Pushfit said:
Jim on the hill said:
Either you can't read or something else, everytime you have asked me my calculations I have done and it comes out about 2%.
Again for your benefit only 75781 confirmed, deaths 2,130 so 2.8%.
How about a friendly wager towards a charity of your choice that my sustained opinion/calculation of 2% is closer than your initial calculations of 30%?
£20 ?
Quick call China immediately and tell them that 55,000 patients need releasing as they’re all going to be fine.Again for your benefit only 75781 confirmed, deaths 2,130 so 2.8%.
How about a friendly wager towards a charity of your choice that my sustained opinion/calculation of 2% is closer than your initial calculations of 30%?
£20 ?
FFS
V6 Pushfit said:
p1stonhead said:
People have been saying that for weeks already.
There haven’t been any here yet. And basically none anywhere else yet either other than China.
Not even ten people have caught it here yet.
You mean like China in December then.There haven’t been any here yet. And basically none anywhere else yet either other than China.
Not even ten people have caught it here yet.
Great try
Another PH'er slated me for it, and having thought about it, I deleted the comment.
f
k though, I'm standing by it this time.p1stonhead said:
philv said:
Can't believe most of the discussion is arguing the toss on the death rate.
We'll know the death rate for confirmed cases in a couple of weeks or so.
As for the real death rate, that's educated guesswork as to how many are infected and never diagnosed. Who knows for that.
On the other hand, with China faffing around with the figures, maybe we won't.
People have been saying that for weeks already. We'll know the death rate for confirmed cases in a couple of weeks or so.
As for the real death rate, that's educated guesswork as to how many are infected and never diagnosed. Who knows for that.
On the other hand, with China faffing around with the figures, maybe we won't.
There haven’t been any here yet. And basically none anywhere else yet either other than China.
Not even ten people have caught it here yet.
In that time that calculated rate has gone from 27% to 11% and still going down.
The lag of recovered compared to deaths takes several weeks or more to catch up.
Edited by philv on Thursday 20th February 20:40
K77 CTR said:
V6 Pushfit said:
ION three Northern Hospitals today are ALL in discussion on how they can change use quick if needed and what their capacities are for isolation/ICU/HDU so there IS preparation going on. The difference in a week is surprising - reassuring in some ways but makes me think its becoming more expected to get real in the UK.
Our hospital made plans about 2 or 3 weeks ago so I doubt this is a new thing in the NHS this week. https://www.derbyshiretimes.co.uk/health/why-coron...
TheJimi said:
Last Friday, I posted to the effect that seems like you're almost rooting for worst case scenario.
Another PH'er slated me for it, and having thought about it, I deleted the comment.
fk though, I'm standing by it this time.
They aren’t my figures. It’s the fAnother PH'er slated me for it, and having thought about it, I deleted the comment.
f
k though, I'm standing by it this time.king calculation of the ones from China. I’ve said this all along. It’s the straight computation of TWO numbers. The are the ONLY estimate of ACTUAL death rate. It is nowhere near 1%.It may be 1% one day, it may be 1% worldwide. It may even be 1% in China and 0% worldwide. I hope it is. However the numbers in China now DO NOT SHOW THAT.
V6 Pushfit said:
TheJimi said:
Last Friday, I posted to the effect that seems like you're almost rooting for worst case scenario.
Another PH'er slated me for it, and having thought about it, I deleted the comment.
fk though, I'm standing by it this time.
They aren’t my figures. It’s the fAnother PH'er slated me for it, and having thought about it, I deleted the comment.
f
k though, I'm standing by it this time.king calculation of the ones from China. I’ve said this all along. It’s the straight computation of TWO numbers. The are the ONLY estimate of ACTUAL death rate. It is nowhere near 1%.It may be 1% one day, it may be 1% worldwide. It may even be 1% in China and 0% worldwide. I hope it is. However the numbers in China now DO NOT SHOW THAT.
V6 Pushfit said:
Well lets start discussing the figures and details....
Then we can have a useful debate and hopefully all learn something, and get out of the playground oneupmanship and what can only (for humanity’s sake) be pretence at ignorance.
UK cases 9Then we can have a useful debate and hopefully all learn something, and get out of the playground oneupmanship and what can only (for humanity’s sake) be pretence at ignorance.
Recovered 8
Deaths 0
Discuss.
V6 Pushfit said:
Well lets start discussing the figures and details....
Then we can have a useful debate and hopefully all learn something, and get out of the playground oneupmanship and what can only (for humanity’s sake) be pretence at ignorance.
What would you like us to learn from you? Currently the CFR calc points at around 3 million dead is the UK if 40% are infected. Do you think this is an accurate prediction? If it is then we're in a lot of trouble, if not then what would your prediction be and how do you reach that conclusion?Then we can have a useful debate and hopefully all learn something, and get out of the playground oneupmanship and what can only (for humanity’s sake) be pretence at ignorance.
V6 Pushfit said:
8 survived, potential for 100% survival or alternatively 11% death rate ?
What are you looking for?
Perhaps an opinion on how the virus is developing around the rest of the world compared to China for example, rather than constant repetition of your statistical calculations.What are you looking for?
RTB said:
What would you like us to learn from you? Currently the CFR calc points at around 3 million dead is the UK if 40% are infected. Do you think this is an accurate prediction? If it is then we're in a lot of trouble, if not then what would your prediction be and how do you reach that conclusion?
Nothing from me - just look at the stats and make your own mind up and not accept a spoon fed random % by some bloke in the news. Get your own info so don’t get a shock if/when it happens here.The Chinese figures at the moment point to 11% and taking the 6 day factor maybe this could be argued 8% ish (falling)
How will this affect the uk? Genetics, summer weather, better health to start with, so hopefully all on our side.
It’s certainly not runny nose figures -far from it - but given the seeming reluctance of Govt to do much overtly I suspect they are accepting it’ll go through the UK so no point in actually stopping it. Slowing maybe in the hope of a vaccine and time to prepare behind the scenes.
emperorburger said:
Perhaps an opinion on how the virus is developing around the rest of the world compared to China for example, rather than constant repetition of your statistical calculations.
If the division of two numbers that are given then it is a calculation also given. The numbers elsewhere are statistically irrelevant as the sample sizes are tiny. What’s your view? Base all our planning on 9 Uk or 104 S Korean patients, or from 19,000 Chinese?
emperorburger said:
V6 Pushfit said:
8 survived, potential for 100% survival or alternatively 11% death rate ?
What are you looking for?
Perhaps an opinion on how the virus is developing around the rest of the world compared to China for example, rather than constant repetition of your statistical calculations.What are you looking for?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgK3Wz0iVRI&fe...
V6 Pushfit said:
emperorburger said:
Perhaps an opinion on how the virus is developing around the rest of the world compared to China for example, rather than constant repetition of your statistical calculations.
If the division of two numbers that are given then it is a calculation also given. The numbers elsewhere are statistically irrelevant as the sample sizes are tiny. What’s your view? Base all our planning on 9 Uk or 104 S Korean patients, or from 19,000 Chinese?
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