Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?
Discussion
RTB said:
It's almost certainly them just making reassuring noises to lessen the economic fallout in the short to medium term though.
Yeah exactly - I mean, let’s just presume hypothetically that locking down millions of people and closing factories etc was starting to having a pretty severe impact on the economy, and that unless a virus really is so big that it threatens to almost wipe out humanity, then inevitably there will always come a point where a choice has to be made between a) continuing actions that limit the virus but damage the economy and hence cause secondary damage, vs b) stopping those actions and trying to resuscitate the economy to prevent more secondary damage.If/when the point comes to make the decision to choose option b), then, regardless of the reality of the situation with the virus, it would make sense to try and convince your citizens that it’s safe fo do things that will lead, hopefully, to the resuscitation of the economy, and the limitation of secondary damages (which may otherwise be forecasted to outweigh the primary damage stemming from the virus itself).
emperorburger said:
"Today, more than 18,000 people have been discharged from hospitals. In many provinces and regions, except the central part, there have been no new infections for more than 10 days. In Hubei, especially in Wuhan, the number of infected people is decreasing," Mr Zhang
https://www.ft.com/content/65913f1a-b1e8-366a-8d54...
I read a report from someone in China that they are discharging people after 10days to go home, regardless of being cured! https://www.ft.com/content/65913f1a-b1e8-366a-8d54...
plasticpig said:
JPJPJP said:
It does seem optimistic - it means having no positive tests from mid March. Just a couple or three weeks from now...
It's perfectly doable; they just "liquidate" the population of Hubei and they all become martyrs.Interesting article on how the lockdown in China has bought the world time to prepare for Covid-19
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/21/coronavirus-wu...
“For all other provinces, the models are on track,” said mathematical epidemiologist Gerardo Chowell of Georgia State. “The containment strategies implemented in China are successfully reducing transmission,” he and his colleagues wrote in a paper published last week in Infectious Disease Modeling. “The epidemic growth has slowed.”
Chowell inclines toward optimism, he said: “I think that we’ll control this,” especially if the Covid-19 virus (like influenza and other viruses) doesn’t survive or spread as well in warm, humid conditions.
Barring secondary outbreaks (as happened with SARS, a coronavirus that spread around the globe in 2003), Chowell said, the Covid-19 epidemic in China might be over in three weeks. This pathogen might join the other four coronaviruses that give millions of people colds and, in some cases, pneumonia every year.
If it falls well short of an uncontrollable pandemic, quarantines and other measures widely viewed as ineffective and even counterproductive could well join the bag of tools used in future viral outbreaks.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/21/coronavirus-wu...
“For all other provinces, the models are on track,” said mathematical epidemiologist Gerardo Chowell of Georgia State. “The containment strategies implemented in China are successfully reducing transmission,” he and his colleagues wrote in a paper published last week in Infectious Disease Modeling. “The epidemic growth has slowed.”
Chowell inclines toward optimism, he said: “I think that we’ll control this,” especially if the Covid-19 virus (like influenza and other viruses) doesn’t survive or spread as well in warm, humid conditions.
Barring secondary outbreaks (as happened with SARS, a coronavirus that spread around the globe in 2003), Chowell said, the Covid-19 epidemic in China might be over in three weeks. This pathogen might join the other four coronaviruses that give millions of people colds and, in some cases, pneumonia every year.
If it falls well short of an uncontrollable pandemic, quarantines and other measures widely viewed as ineffective and even counterproductive could well join the bag of tools used in future viral outbreaks.
New pre-print study
One for the usual suspects to argue over...
“the estimated national CFR of COVID-19 obtained in this study is approximately 7%, which is close to SARS. Considering that the epidemic source is Wuhan, the estimated CFR of Wuhan exceeds 10%.”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18...
One for the usual suspects to argue over...
“the estimated national CFR of COVID-19 obtained in this study is approximately 7%, which is close to SARS. Considering that the epidemic source is Wuhan, the estimated CFR of Wuhan exceeds 10%.”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18...
London can host 2020 Olympics if coronavirus outbreak persists, mayoral candidate says
https://www.foxnews.com/world/london-can-host-2020...
https://www.foxnews.com/world/london-can-host-2020...
tty situation. JPJPJP said:
I wonder if that is because they didn't get diagnosed quickly enough?
As I posted earlier, I think this has very mild symptoms for a few days - during which time it can be treated to a cure pretty easily - but then BOOM, it hits you hard and you are lucky to survive
I would be sceptical that any treatment while the symptoms are mild will have any effect on the outcome - suspect that's down to your physical condition and a roll of the dice.As I posted earlier, I think this has very mild symptoms for a few days - during which time it can be treated to a cure pretty easily - but then BOOM, it hits you hard and you are lucky to survive
nffcforever said:
New pre-print study
One for the usual suspects to argue over...
“the estimated national CFR of COVID-19 obtained in this study is approximately 7%, which is close to SARS. Considering that the epidemic source is Wuhan, the estimated CFR of Wuhan exceeds 10%.”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18...
The problem is when you read it, it starts to become very political and therefore biased. I have no problem with a higher death rate, but it comes down to the reasons why people say it will kill more.One for the usual suspects to argue over...
“the estimated national CFR of COVID-19 obtained in this study is approximately 7%, which is close to SARS. Considering that the epidemic source is Wuhan, the estimated CFR of Wuhan exceeds 10%.”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.18...
''This article predicts this high CFR and death toll based on the current medical level and existing data. This result reminds us that we cannot be blindly optimistic. Governments at all levels and people from all walks of life must not take it lightly and must grasp the final “window period.” ''
otolith said:
JPJPJP said:
I wonder if that is because they didn't get diagnosed quickly enough?
As I posted earlier, I think this has very mild symptoms for a few days - during which time it can be treated to a cure pretty easily - but then BOOM, it hits you hard and you are lucky to survive
I would be sceptical that any treatment while the symptoms are mild will have any effect on the outcome - suspect that's down to your physical condition and a roll of the dice.As I posted earlier, I think this has very mild symptoms for a few days - during which time it can be treated to a cure pretty easily - but then BOOM, it hits you hard and you are lucky to survive
Thesprucegoose said:
The problem is when you read it, it starts to become very political and therefore biased. I have no problem with a higher death rate, but it comes down to the reasons why people say it will kill more.
''This article predicts this high CFR and death toll based on the current medical level and existing data. This result reminds us that we cannot be blindly optimistic. Governments at all levels and people from all walks of life must not take it lightly and must grasp the final “window period.” ''
Ok''This article predicts this high CFR and death toll based on the current medical level and existing data. This result reminds us that we cannot be blindly optimistic. Governments at all levels and people from all walks of life must not take it lightly and must grasp the final “window period.” ''
otolith said:
I would be sceptical that any treatment while the symptoms are mild will have any effect on the outcome - suspect that's down to your physical condition and a roll of the dice.
I don't agree. I think this is why the health authorities are keen to catch it early and - to me, with a wholly unexpert eye - why the survival rate outside Wuhan is so much higher: because the people being hospitalised are in the early stages of infection.Look at the progression of the disease in this case for instance - Day 6 of hospital, day 10 of illness and BOOM, he is almost a goner
Just think what had happened if he had left it a few more days as only being a bit of a cold
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa200119...
On January 19, 2020, a 35-year-old man presented to an urgent care clinic in Snohomish County, Washington, with a 4-day history of cough and subjective fever. On admission, the patient reported persistent dry cough and a 2-day history of nausea and vomiting;
On January 20, 2020, the CDC confirmed that the patient’s nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs tested positive for 2019-nCoV
On days 2 through 5 of hospitalization (days 6 through 9 of illness), the patient’s vital signs remained largely stable, apart from the development of intermittent fevers accompanied by periods of tachycardia (Figure 2). The patient continued to report a nonproductive cough and appeared fatigued. On the afternoon of hospital day 2, the patient passed a loose bowel movement and reported abdominal discomfort. A second episode of loose stool was reported overnight;
A chest radiograph taken on hospital day 3 (illness day 7) was reported as showing no evidence of infiltrates or abnormalities
However, a second chest radiograph from the night of hospital day 5 (illness day 9) showed evidence of pneumonia in the lower lobe of the left lung (Figure 4). These radiographic findings coincided with a change in respiratory status starting on the evening of hospital day 5, when the patient’s oxygen saturation values as measured by pulse oximetry dropped to as low as 90% while he was breathing ambient air.
On day 6, the patient was started on supplemental oxygen. On hospital day 6 (illness day 10), a fourth chest radiograph showed basilar streaky opacities in both lungs, a finding consistent with atypical pneumonia
Treatment with intravenous remdesivir (a novel nucleotide analogue prodrug in development10,11) was initiated on the evening of day 7,
On hospital day 8 (illness day 12), the patient’s clinical condition improved. Supplemental oxygen was discontinued, and his oxygen saturation values improved to 94 to 96% while he was breathing ambient air. The previous bilateral lower-lobe rales were no longer present. His appetite improved
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