Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?
Discussion
nffcforever said:
There is literally life to be gained by slowing the spread and “letting the population get it slowly” as it reduces the concurrent burden on health services and allows for time to research therapeutic treatments and vaccines.
Precisely.In a pop of 100K over a month you would expect between 12000 and 3000 'critical cases' if unchecked, when you have 500 ICU beds that are already 87% full to deal with them.
Most of this is to do with the lags between infection - transmission - symptom; ie we will only know in 2 weeks what the situation is today.
It's less to do with morbidity and more to do with flattening the curve to best manage it.
RTB said:
red_slr said:
You would have to assume some bods in black suits have been out swabbing public areas or sampling the air at ports of entry.
That's the only reason I can think the UK have not taken a tougher stance on people coming and going.
Given the complexity of correctly sampling and detecting the virus in patients that have actively replicating virus the chances of detecting what would probably be trace amounts in the environment is minimal. That's the only reason I can think the UK have not taken a tougher stance on people coming and going.
Plus a negative result only tells you that you've failed to detect it. A pointless exercise.
Chucking the airport cleaners an extra 50 quid and telling them to keep surfaces clean would be a better use of resources
OzzyR1 said:
What preventative measures have you put in place for you and your family? Are you going to work tomorrow or all staying at home until you judge the coast is clear?
LimSlip said:
We have a decent stock of food and water and yes, I will be staying at home tomorrow.
OzzyR1 said:
One poster above seemed to genuinely claim he was stockpiling food and water, and taking time off work,
Must be an elaborate troll or else the individual is bats*Icensored*t crazy!!
Perfect! Must be an elaborate troll or else the individual is bats*Icensored*t crazy!!
I made that post slightly ambiguous because the mouth frothing denialist types tend to read what they want to see, and avoid trying to clarify anything in case it contradicts their preconceptions.
1) We are not "stockpiling" food, but we do have a decent amount in the house having just done the weekly shop.
2) I'm not taking any time off work, and have never claimed anything of the sort. I work from home at least a couple of days a week and probably more so now since business travel has been greatly restricted by the (obviously "bats
t crazy") company I work since mid-January, so customer/supplier visits will likely be off the table until this is sorted.I don't suppose this will prevent you jumping to whatever conclusions you want to be true, but it does mean anything you say can safely be labelled nonsense.
red_slr said:
Complexity? One would assume that these departments within Whitehall would not bat an eye lid at a few extra samples.
There have been patients with replicating virus that have had symptoms and multiple negative tests before a positive test. Do you think that the tests are reliable enough to detect trace amounts diluted over large areas?I'd happily PCR from a dodgy sample if all I wanted to do was amplify the transcript and do some further molecular biology with it. I wouldn't want to be assaying moody samples to detect something and use those data to inform public health policy. A cleaner with a bleach spray and a cloth is a lot more use.
LimSlip said:
OzzyR1 said:
What preventative measures have you put in place for you and your family? Are you going to work tomorrow or all staying at home until you judge the coast is clear?
LimSlip said:
We have a decent stock of food and water and yes, I will be staying at home tomorrow.
OzzyR1 said:
One poster above seemed to genuinely claim he was stockpiling food and water, and taking time off work,
Must be an elaborate troll or else the individual is bats*Icensored*t crazy!!
Perfect! Must be an elaborate troll or else the individual is bats*Icensored*t crazy!!
I made that post slightly ambiguous because the mouth frothing denialist types tend to read what they want to see, and avoid trying to clarify anything in case it contradicts their preconceptions.
1) We are not "stockpiling" food, but we do have a decent amount in the house having just done the weekly shop.
2) I'm not taking any time off work, and have never claimed anything of the sort. I work from home at least a couple of days a week and probably more so now since business travel has been greatly restricted by the (obviously "bats
t crazy") company I work since mid-January, so customer/supplier visits will likely be off the table until this is sorted.I don't suppose this will prevent you jumping to whatever conclusions you want to be true, but it does mean anything you say can safely be labelled nonsense.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51611422
'WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told the BBC that the situation was not being seen as a pandemic at the moment because countries were managing to prevent the virus spreading too far.'
Somebody tell her
The proportion of infected patients dying from Covid-19 appears to be between 1% and 2%, although the World Health Organization (WHO) cautions that the mortality rate is not known yet.
Is no one at the BBC savvy enough to see its more like 10% ???
'WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told the BBC that the situation was not being seen as a pandemic at the moment because countries were managing to prevent the virus spreading too far.'
Somebody tell her
The proportion of infected patients dying from Covid-19 appears to be between 1% and 2%, although the World Health Organization (WHO) cautions that the mortality rate is not known yet.
Is no one at the BBC savvy enough to see its more like 10% ???
V6 Pushfit said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51611422
'WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told the BBC that the situation was not being seen as a pandemic at the moment because countries were managing to prevent the virus spreading too far.'
Somebody tell her
The proportion of infected patients dying from Covid-19 appears to be between 1% and 2%, although the World Health Organization (WHO) cautions that the mortality rate is not known yet.
Is no one at the BBC savvy enough to see its more like 10% ???
Why don’t you ring up the WHO and correct their statistics? I’m sure they’ll take it on board and issue a statement stating that you are indeed correct 'WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told the BBC that the situation was not being seen as a pandemic at the moment because countries were managing to prevent the virus spreading too far.'
Somebody tell her
The proportion of infected patients dying from Covid-19 appears to be between 1% and 2%, although the World Health Organization (WHO) cautions that the mortality rate is not known yet.
Is no one at the BBC savvy enough to see its more like 10% ???
V6 Pushfit said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51611422
'WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told the BBC that the situation was not being seen as a pandemic at the moment because countries were managing to prevent the virus spreading too far.'
Somebody tell her
The proportion of infected patients dying from Covid-19 appears to be between 1% and 2%, although the World Health Organization (WHO) cautions that the mortality rate is not known yet.
Is no one at the BBC savvy enough to see its more like 10% ???
I'd have thought you'd be having a trouser accident at the apparent 106% CFR in Iran as of this morning....or did your calculator explode?'WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris told the BBC that the situation was not being seen as a pandemic at the moment because countries were managing to prevent the virus spreading too far.'
Somebody tell her
The proportion of infected patients dying from Covid-19 appears to be between 1% and 2%, although the World Health Organization (WHO) cautions that the mortality rate is not known yet.
Is no one at the BBC savvy enough to see its more like 10% ???
V6 Pushfit said:
p1stonhead said:
Why don’t you ring up the WHO and correct their statistics? I’m sure they’ll take it on board and issue a statement stating that you are indeed correct
Where do they get 1-2% from then?Dont know?
oh
I trust them a damn sight more than a random on a motoring website though.
V6 Pushfit said:
eharding said:
I'd have thought you'd be having a trouser accident at the apparent 106% CFR in Iran as of this morning....or did your calculator explode?
Ah yes here we have the guy that believes everything the nice man on the TV says despite the numbers showing something different.You're just back here looking to pick a fight. Again.
p1stonhead said:
V6 Pushfit said:
p1stonhead said:
Why don’t you ring up the WHO and correct their statistics? I’m sure they’ll take it on board and issue a statement stating that you are indeed correct
Where do they get 1-2% from then?Dont know?
oh
I trust them a damn sight more than a random on a motoring website though.
What they havent told you is they base it on case numbers which is completely wrong. misleading and IMO fraudulent. But of course they say 'we cant predict final outcomes yet' which is true but what they aren't telling you is they're s
t scared of the more accurate way of forecasting it now. eharding said:
I didn't know about the change to WHO nomenclature either until I saw that article this morning. They seem to be saying that they've already declared what amounts to a pandemic, only they've called it something different and nobody noticed.
Well, screw the WHO and their new-fangled definitions. We're having a proper, good old fashioned pandemic like great-grandad had in 1918, and that's bloody it. "Public health emergency of international concern" my hairy arse.
Well, screw the WHO and their new-fangled definitions. We're having a proper, good old fashioned pandemic like great-grandad had in 1918, and that's bloody it. "Public health emergency of international concern" my hairy arse.
Forget the bloody figures already! The core numbers that the stats are being based on unreliable, so any conclusion reached will also be unreliable. Until we have a good quantity of reliable numbers it's largely pointless.
Anyway, Italy closing down villages, Trains between Austria and Italy being stopped. Cruise ships not being able to dock ALL of the crap going down in China and Wuhan at the moment.
Do people really need the maths to show them whats going on? This is not "just the flue".
Best case - Even if it does have a 1-2% kill rate. Thats still a LOT of people. The NHS wont cope. And thats convinently forgetting the impact of getting "just the flue" will have.
Anyway, Italy closing down villages, Trains between Austria and Italy being stopped. Cruise ships not being able to dock ALL of the crap going down in China and Wuhan at the moment.
Do people really need the maths to show them whats going on? This is not "just the flue".
Best case - Even if it does have a 1-2% kill rate. Thats still a LOT of people. The NHS wont cope. And thats convinently forgetting the impact of getting "just the flue" will have.
V6 Pushfit said:
Ah yes here we have the guy that believes everything the nice man on the TV says despite the numbers showing something different.
It's impossible to calculate CFRs whilst an outbreak is ongoing. You can certainly keep a running tally on what the CFR currently is but it doesn't provide you with any information that you can act on. Imagine if the world governments had taken your initial CFR calculation of 30% (nothing wrong with the maths, the figures were saying exactly that) and acted accordingly? Currently, there would almost certainly be 10s of thousands of people dead due to the extreme measures required to contain an easily transmittable pathogen with a 30% CFR. We would have had global chaos, rioting military on the streets etc etc. The 30% CFR was accurate at that time and based on those figures, but as a policy-making piece of data it had no use whatsoever, same with the current 10% CFR figure.
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