Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?

[anonymous-user]

If it’s true that WHO found very few home cases, it’s reduced the main outcomes to mainly hospitalised ‘mild’ or ‘severe/critical’
Runny noses are off the agenda unless you’re skiing.

[oyster]

p1stonhead said:

V6 Pushfit said:

Twitter just now:

‘Air born transmission Confirmed.
3-5 days before symptoms show.
(Meaning it can be spread it, passed on before anyone aware they're infected.)’

Thanks for the info

Sake

Millions must have it then and it is very mild.

Or it’s very difficult to catch despite it being airborne.

Can’t be both.

First one is my bet. Second one doesn’t make sense as there are seemingly clusters where a lot have it.

No way 200 people caught it randomly in Italy. Those that have it are probably the ones who were tested. If they tested everyone there would be thousands more I’m sure.

11 now dead in Italy unfortunately. All over 75 though.

How can there be so many negative tests in the UK though?

[p1stonhead]

oyster said:

p1stonhead said:

V6 Pushfit said:

Twitter just now:

‘Air born transmission Confirmed.
3-5 days before symptoms show.
(Meaning it can be spread it, passed on before anyone aware they're infected.)’

Thanks for the info

Sake

Millions must have it then and it is very mild.

Or it’s very difficult to catch despite it being airborne.

Can’t be both.

First one is my bet. Second one doesn’t make sense as there are seemingly clusters where a lot have it.

No way 200 people caught it randomly in Italy. Those that have it are probably the ones who were tested. If they tested everyone there would be thousands more I’m sure.

11 now dead in Italy unfortunately. All over 75 though.

How can there be so many negative tests in the UK though?

Yes indeed I edited my post to say that! Baffling.

[Exige77]

p1stonhead said:

V6 Pushfit said:

Twitter just now:

‘Air born transmission Confirmed.
3-5 days before symptoms show.
(Meaning it can be spread it, passed on before anyone aware they're infected.)’

Thanks for the info

Sake

Millions must have it then and it is very mild.

Or it’s very difficult to catch despite it being airborne.

Can’t be both.

First one is my bet. Second one doesn’t make sense as there are seemingly clusters where a lot have it.

No way 200 people caught it randomly in Italy. Those that have it are probably the ones who were tested. If they tested everyone there would be thousands more I’m sure.

Up to 332 in Italy now.

As you say, they didn’t all just catch it on Sunday.

It’s been around for a while I think.

[67Dino]

p1stonhead said:

Well Matt Hancock is ‘pretty worried’ then. How reassuring

https://twitter.com/skynews/status/123231934261788...

He needn’t worry as long as the government has a well developed set of contingency plans and the NHS has plenty of spare capacity in the system. Oh. Uh oh...

[Jonesy23]

There could be lots of cases out there that aren't exactly mild, but unless you develop pneumonia or get tested because of known exposure you'd probably treat it as generic cold/flu and just deal with it as normal. It's that time of year.

[p1stonhead]

Jonesy23 said:

There could be lots of cases out there that aren't exactly mild, but unless you develop pneumonia or get tested because of known exposure you'd probably treat it as generic cold/flu and just deal with it as normal. It's that time of year.

Is here but it’s not below the equator.

Why hasn’t Sydney and the like had a massive spike in the middle of their summer? Can’t really be covered up by normal flu there....

[Jim on the hill]

Quite a good read regarding the theory of how it's jumped species

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment...

[nffcforever]

Recording of US CDC briefing

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0225-cdc-...

“We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad.”

Edited by nffcforever on Tuesday 25th February 19:19

[m3jappa]

oyster said:

How can there be so many negative tests in the UK though?

Because they are testing the wrong people. I believe they are only testing people who think they may have it for whatever reason.

So much international travel, several million leaving wuhan a while back, even reading this thread and the amount of comments about so and so they know going skiing, going here for the weekend, friends going there, it seems everyone (apart from me ) is living their life and travelling.

how many chinese in London? how many people been travelling to other Asian countries.

It is starting to seem impossible for potentially millions to not have it.

Or it could be that the people they have tested aren't yet showing as confirmed, plenty of reports of mr x being negative and then 5 days later positive, they have been sent off, spreading it everywhere and then suddenly in about 2 weeks there will be thousands and thousands of cases. Grim if that scenario plays out however i think my first scenario is much more likely.

[OnaRoll]

p1stonhead said:

Jonesy23 said:

There could be lots of cases out there that aren't exactly mild, but unless you develop pneumonia or get tested because of known exposure you'd probably treat it as generic cold/flu and just deal with it as normal. It's that time of year.

Is here but it’s not below the equator.

Why hasn’t Sydney and the like had a massive spike in the middle of their summer? Can’t really be covered up by normal flu there....

Airborne? Doesn't spread as easily in hot weather.

[p1stonhead]

m3jappa said:

oyster said:

How can there be so many negative tests in the UK though?

Because they are testing the wrong people. I believe they are only testing people who think they may have it for whatever reason.

So much international travel, several million leaving wuhan a while back, even reading this thread and the amount of comments about so and so they know going skiing, going here for the weekend, friends going there, it seems everyone (apart from me ) is living their life and travelling.

how many chinese in London? how many people been travelling to other Asian countries.

It is starting to seem impossible for potentially millions to not have it.

Or it could be that the people they have tested aren't yet showing as confirmed, plenty of reports of mr x being negative and then 5 days later positive, they have been sent off, spreading it everywhere and then suddenly in about 2 weeks there will be thousands and thousands of cases. Grim if that scenario plays out however i think my first scenario is much more likely.

The numbers have been thousands in China for like 6 weeks now. There should be thousands in every corner of the globe now unless the incubation period is like over 2 months which is insane.

[Maxf]

What definition of airborne are they using/assuming - drifting some distance in the wind or cough and it’s airborne until it hits the floor?

[p1stonhead]

OnaRoll said:

p1stonhead said:

Jonesy23 said:

There could be lots of cases out there that aren't exactly mild, but unless you develop pneumonia or get tested because of known exposure you'd probably treat it as generic cold/flu and just deal with it as normal. It's that time of year.

Is here but it’s not below the equator.

Why hasn’t Sydney and the like had a massive spike in the middle of their summer? Can’t really be covered up by normal flu there....

Airborne? Doesn't spread as easily in hot weather.

Yeah but at least anyone who did have it wouldn’t be lost in the noise of seasonal flu numbers who could have had it but not noticed.

They should be much easier to spot in hot climates where flu season isn’t currently in full flow. But....... tumbleweed.

[anonymous-user]

Crumpet said:

Anyone started ‘prepping’? Obviously that picture of the Austrian fella earlier was on the extreme end, but my £150 weekly shop today turned into £500 of stocking up on essentials. It’s not that I’ve been cleaning Asda out of Spam and noodles, but I reckon I could manage a month without leaving the house.

It’s all normal stuff so it’ll get used whatever happens but I felt that a) if I have to self-quarantine we’ll be fairly self sufficient, and b) if there’s a mad panic buying spree I’ll have already done it!

I realise it sounds a bit mental (and genuinely I’m not that concerned) but I don’t see any harm in having the cupboards fully stocked.

Don’t tell your neighbours, otherwise you’ll be a target. When gangs are roaming the streets post apocalypse ..

[nffcforever]

Paper on estimated number of actual infections in Iran:

https://twitter.com/bogochisaac/status/12323799174...

[LandRoverManiac]

Crumpet said:

Forgive my ignorance, but is it possible for a virus to have multiple strains whereby one is more deadly than the other? Would it be possible for the strain in Italy to be stronger and more deadly than the one that’s doing the rounds in Singapore?

My understanding is that this group of viruses are eminently adaptable - so you will doubtless have different strains as it works its way through different groups of people. Alternatively it is very specific in its impact - e.g. attacking the lungs and getting a foothold only if the victim is particularly susceptible - a classic case is one of 'those' colds that gives one person in the office a sniffle and sending the other to bed for a few days.

SARS / MERS was pretty much - bang - instant hospital admission. Something like 4/5 people have mild symptoms (presumably not requiring much in the way of medical attention) so this isn't on the same level.

[Exige77]

Jimboka said:

Crumpet said:

Anyone started ‘prepping’? Obviously that picture of the Austrian fella earlier was on the extreme end, but my £150 weekly shop today turned into £500 of stocking up on essentials. It’s not that I’ve been cleaning Asda out of Spam and noodles, but I reckon I could manage a month without leaving the house.

It’s all normal stuff so it’ll get used whatever happens but I felt that a) if I have to self-quarantine we’ll be fairly self sufficient, and b) if there’s a mad panic buying spree I’ll have already done it!

I realise it sounds a bit mental (and genuinely I’m not that concerned) but I don’t see any harm in having the cupboards fully stocked.

Don’t tell your neighbours, otherwise you’ll be a target. When gangs are roaming the streets post apocalypse ..

Just put a sign on your door saying “quarantined” or “I shop at Iceland”

[Hub]

Damn you preppers - we're in the middle of a new kitchen install, so will be without for another week or two and no spare space elsewhere for additional grub!!

[TTmonkey]

If it’s airbourne it kind of makes sense because all those people in their cabins on the cruise ship of death probably breathing in the same air. All locked in their rooms, and over 450 cases.

I’m guessing the air filters were not up to the job.