Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?

[poo at Paul's]

glazbagun said:

Or you can't read.

The man you describe is one of 60M inhabitants not displaying symptoms. Therefore it is vanishingly unlikely that someone in the UK with no symptoms will be a carrier.

You have a finite budget, equipment and manpower. You can't test everyone so why waste resources on those not showing symptoms when there's plenty of people coughing their guts up to test.

So your saying someone who doesn’t have it can’t transmit it?
Whereas what he is saying is people who are non symptomatic for all practical purposes cannot transmit it, which is clearly wrong, unless Walsh is lying.
Why did he not say, if you don’t have it, you cannot transmit it. That makes sense.

What he says is sending the wrong message totally. It’s saying avoid people who are showing or reporting symptoms and you won’t get it. And that’s horsest as we know from the ski chalet case. And of course it is he most problematic aspect of this virus. It’s IS contagious when one is asymptomatic! And to ignore that is a massive own goal.

[poo at Paul's]

aeropilot said:

I see the EU must not fail political mantra have predictably decided not to do the sensible thing....

BBC said:

Health ministers from France, Germany, Italy and the EU Commission committed to keeping frontiers open at a meeting on Tuesday as new cases of the virus emerged throughout Europe and in central and southern Italy.

Yes, the Austrians who stopped that train on Monday night at the border were soon put back in their box. Nothing to see here, trains welcome etc.

[arguti]

Not sure if this has already been posted but Iranian Deputy Health Minister before he tests positvie!

https://twitter.com/howroute/status/12323473136512...

[Abbott]

abzmike said:

MrNoisy said:

Do you have a link to the bit from PHE about any affected country please?

We flew into an unaffected part of Italy last Tuesday, were screened on the way in along with everyone else. Flew back into Stansted last Friday after the Italian thing ‘broke’ expecting the full on Hazmat welcome - nothing.

Edited by MrNoisy on Wednesday 26th February 09:51

Ditto, but I was Milan Wed-Fri last week.
In Croatia today, returning tonight - I wonder if I'll go ping at the passport desk as presumably they will know I've been to Italy...
Are there any checks on people flying back from Milan at UK airports this week?

The answer is simple. You know where you were so you should self isolate. It is not a question of your ok as long as the system does not find you.

[andy_s]

beanbag said:

Here's a great one for tracking the spread (not sure if it's been shared before), but it provides a brilliant dashboard for tracking the Covid 19 spread:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.htm...

Great work on the modelling - https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/nco...

[andy_s]

JPJPJP said:

Brazil: first latam country and Algeria: second African country have cases

The Algerian case is an Italian on one of the projects in the Sahara, he arrived on the 17th and it's very unclear whether he has been tested officially or whether he has been isolated as a precaution as he has a cold. Not 'yes' or 'no', just unclear exactly what is going on. [All usual caveats apply re lag etc].

ETA - soon as I write it, it's confirmed by the Ministry as pos.

[VolvoT5]

andy_s said:

Great work on the modelling - https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/nco...

Not gonna pretend I can be bothered to read or understand all of that, but surely if the real number of cases is way more than reported that is good in one way as it suggests there may be a large number of people that only get very mild symptoms. Although large numbers infected will still mean large numbers of seriously ill even if it only makes a tiny % of people very unwell.

Also in the news : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51565492
Yet we are supposed to believe the NHS is well prepared to deal with this crisis. Yeah right.

[croyde]

CAPP0 said:

Your best bet might be to use a bike.....oh, er, hang on....

(sorry mate! )

Haha

I've moved to a better postcode now and have a garage. Insurance companies are lining up to offer me deals on all sorts of bikes.

Hope to get one if we don't all lose our money from work being stopped and stock market crashes.

I still have my trusty Vespa too.

[MrNoisy]

FourWheelDrift said:

MrNoisy said:

Do you have a link to the bit from PHE about any affected country please?

We flew into an unaffected part of Italy last Tuesday, were screened on the way in along with everyone else. Flew back into Stansted last Friday after the Italian thing ‘broke’ expecting the full on Hazmat welcome - nothing.

Edited by MrNoisy on Wednesday 26th February 09:51

You'll be fine it takes at while before you explode, but not too long if you have it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUbplahEBfQ

Oh it’s not me i’m concerned about my old fruit, it’s the several thousand people I come into contact with daily working in the London transport sector...

Sure you’ll all be reet

I was asking as the poster of said information seemed sure that PHE were suggesting isolation - it appears he may have knee jerked a tad

[croyde]

FTSE now below 7000, first time in more than a year.

[jshell]

The Wuhan laboratory site appears to be down now. Was an interesting read before.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&a...

[TheJimi]

croyde said:

FTSE now below 7000, first time in more than a year.

Markets react to stuff. Who knew.

[nffcforever]

VolvoT5 said:

Yet we are supposed to believe the NHS is well prepared to deal with this crisis. Yeah right.

The NHS isn't well prepared to deal with winter.

[andy_s]

VolvoT5 said:

Not gonna pretend I can be bothered to read or understand all of that, but surely if the real number of cases is way more than reported that is good in one way as it suggests there may be a large number of people that only get very mild symptoms. Although large numbers infected will still mean large numbers of seriously ill even if it only makes a tiny % of people very unwell.

Also in the news : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51565492
Yet we are supposed to believe the NHS is well prepared to deal with this crisis. Yeah right.

No medical system in the world will be prepared for sudden 100x increase in need for ICU level care country-wide that is already at 87% capacity - they are prepared in the sense that 'major incident' planning will be in place, but not prepared in the sense that they can cope to the same standard of support enjoyed at the moment if it all comes at once, hence the emphasis on draconian isolation of all cases beyond what an individual risk model would think necessary.
Flattening the curve is the aim, the question has always been how many are carrying and spreading asymptomatically/with slight symptoms today. We'll only know in a week or two and beyond I guess.

[citizensm1th]

As long as no one panics before 8 tonight I will be fine as I will have stocked up at tesco

[RTB]

VolvoT5 said:

Not gonna pretend I can be bothered to read or understand all of that, but surely if the real number of cases is way more than reported that is good in one way as it suggests there may be a large number of people that only get very mild symptoms. Although large numbers infected will still mean large numbers of seriously ill even if it only makes a tiny % of people very unwell.

Also in the news : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51565492
Yet we are supposed to believe the NHS is well prepared to deal with this crisis. Yeah right.

I think we're about to find out one way or another. One thing to think about is that if one of the richest nations on the planet becomes overwhelmed then what hope have the rest of the much poorer countries got? I agree with you that currently, the NHS is in no position to cope. If this gets hold then we'll get a good insight into how misused hospitals are by a great many people. I've mentioned it before on here, but I have some colleagues in China (Beijing and Shanghai) who have said that the virus has pretty much emptied the hospitals. There aren't that many cases in either city compared to the total population but it's obvious that people are staying away from the hospitals unless they really need to be there. If it kicks off here I'll feel most sorry for those that really do need to be in a hospital and end up cheek by jowl with someone coughing into a mask.

[eharding]

citizensm1th said:

As long as no one panics before 8 tonight I will be fine as I will have stocked up at tesco

Tesco have Gin and Tonic handwash on sale at 50% off. Important to get the essentials panic-bought first.

[RTB]

citizensm1th said:

As long as no one panics before 8 tonight I will be fine as I will have stocked up at tesco

Having been one of the less panicky posters on here I'm going out at lunchtime and stocking up on tinned and packet stuff. My wife will think I'm mad, but it'll all get eaten whatever happens.

[KarlMac]

Do I start worrying yet?

[Fanboy911]

RTB said:

Having been one of the less panicky posters on here I'm going out at lunchtime and stocking up on tinned and packet stuff. My wife will think I'm mad, but it'll all get eaten whatever happens.

It'll be the one way to clear our house out of all the food that's been stockpiling for years !