Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?
Discussion
Gregmitchell said:
Italy doing a lot of testing!
UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
According to the ever-cheerful AEP...UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
USA: 426 tests, 57 tested positive (13.4% positivity rate).
Apparently, only three of the 100 US public health labs even have working test kits. Trump says it's all OK though.
eharding said:
Gregmitchell said:
Italy doing a lot of testing!
UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
According to the ever-cheerful AEP...UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
USA: 426 tests, 57 tested positive (13.4% positivity rate).
Apparently, only three of the 100 US public health labs even have working test kits. Trump says it's all OK though.
How can they make statements like this when they're not even testing??
The U.S. CDC yesterday suggested that the risk of a coronavirus pandemic is likely and is alerting the public to begin preparing for community spread in the United States. Dr. Anne Schuchat, the CDC's principal deputy director declared: "It's not a question of if. It's a question of when and how many people will be infected."
eharding said:
According to the ever-cheerful AEP...
USA: 426 tests, 57 tested positive (13.4% positivity rate).
Apparently, only three of the 100 US public health labs even have working test kits. Trump says it's all OK though.
I might try and catch the Trump 'coronavirus' press conference later - likely to be quite hilarious / terrifying. USA: 426 tests, 57 tested positive (13.4% positivity rate).
Apparently, only three of the 100 US public health labs even have working test kits. Trump says it's all OK though.
V6 Pushfit said:
Picked up some masks today - four bloody quid each and they’re £2.20 on eBay from ...err...
Oh
Ahh... those were the days....seems like weeks ago..... buying masks for DIY that could also double up as PPE if needed to care for a sick relative at home.Oh
Unrelated, but just wondering, would calling someone a https://www.lexico.com/definition/pillock usually be punishable with a 30 day ban on PH?
Gregmitchell said:
eharding said:
Gregmitchell said:
Italy doing a lot of testing!
UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
According to the ever-cheerful AEP...UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
USA: 426 tests, 57 tested positive (13.4% positivity rate).
Apparently, only three of the 100 US public health labs even have working test kits. Trump says it's all OK though.
How can they make statements like this when they're not even testing??
The U.S. CDC yesterday suggested that the risk of a coronavirus pandemic is likely and is alerting the public to begin preparing for community spread in the United States. Dr. Anne Schuchat, the CDC's principal deputy director declared: "It's not a question of if. It's a question of when and how many people will be infected."
CDC were *exceptionally* unhappy about the handling of the cruise ship but lost the political game.
m3jappa said:
On the plus side i have just made an asda online order for 197 items ranging from s
t loads of sardines and noodles to beers and chocolate and it was £380 all in. What that has proved is my mrs who usually does the shopping isn't as good at it as me, as apparently the money just doesn't go that far 
There must be loads of weirdos on the internet shopping tonight doing similar shops, the supermarkets must be loving it
£205 on Morissins just now.t loads of sardines and noodles to beers and chocolate and it was £380 all in. What that has proved is my mrs who usually does the shopping isn't as good at it as me, as apparently the money just doesn't go that far There must be loads of weirdos on the internet shopping tonight doing similar shops, the supermarkets must be loving it
But I’ve been doing Waitrose, Booths and local butcher bulk runs over the last few weeks so pantry and freezers now at max capacity.
It’s not *that* much but it gets heavy going planning in such a way to store and use, but not waste such a volume of food... I’m almost having to daily log what’s been used and bringing stuff in cupboards and freezers forwards
V6 Pushfit said:
isaldiri said:
ok crack on. so only 6m or whatever in the UK that will die now given your miraculously changing fatality rate.
You really don’t get it do you?Have you seen my post earlier today?
Do you normally read a book and only remember the first page?
Ok ok, let’s be reasonable... what do you think the current rate is - with your calculation please. The floor is yours....
A tip to get ahead of the game - avoid using case numbers. They’re misleading and get added to the recovered side by stats people afraid of the alternative.
Anyway apologies for interrupting your thinking - all yours....
Escapegoat said:
Interesting: Coronavirus is like SARS with significant bits of Ebola/HIV bolted on, making just so happen to make it more efficient at binding to human cells.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/30...
Now, no-one's saying it actually was 'bolted together' but that's some coincidence.
Careful. I got shouted down and accused as being part of the illiterati when I suggested something similar...https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/30...
Now, no-one's saying it actually was 'bolted together' but that's some coincidence.
Gregmitchell said:
Italy doing a lot of testing!
UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
Did you compile those yourself or is that from some sort of compilation website?UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
(I'm not being antagonistic btw!)
TheJimi said:
Gregmitchell said:
Italy doing a lot of testing!
UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
Did you compile those yourself or is that from some sort of compilation website?UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
(I'm not being antagonistic btw!)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
TheJimi said:
Gregmitchell said:
eharding said:
Gregmitchell said:
Italy doing a lot of testing!
UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
According to the ever-cheerful AEP...UK: 7,132 concluded tests, of which 13 positive (0.2% positivity rate).
Italy: 9,462 tests, of which 458 positive (4.8% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
France: 762 tests, of which 17 positive (2.2% positivity rate), 179 awaiting results.
Austria: 321 tests, of which 2 positive (0.6% positivity rate), awaiting results: unknown.
USA: 426 tests, 57 tested positive (13.4% positivity rate).
Apparently, only three of the 100 US public health labs even have working test kits. Trump says it's all OK though.
How can they make statements like this when they're not even testing??
The U.S. CDC yesterday suggested that the risk of a coronavirus pandemic is likely and is alerting the public to begin preparing for community spread in the United States. Dr. Anne Schuchat, the CDC's principal deputy director declared: "It's not a question of if. It's a question of when and how many people will be infected."
CDC were *exceptionally* unhappy about the handling of the cruise ship but lost the political game.
Mr Whippy said:
£205 on Morissins just now.
But I’ve been doing Waitrose, Booths and local butcher bulk runs over the last few weeks so pantry and freezers now at max capacity.
It’s not *that* much but it gets heavy going planning in such a way to store and use, but not waste such a volume of food... I’m almost having to daily log what’s been used and bringing stuff in cupboards and freezers forwards
It makes sense to me, if there is some disaster at least we will be ok, if there isn't (which i dont think there will be) then we have a load of stuff which will still get used. But I’ve been doing Waitrose, Booths and local butcher bulk runs over the last few weeks so pantry and freezers now at max capacity.
It’s not *that* much but it gets heavy going planning in such a way to store and use, but not waste such a volume of food... I’m almost having to daily log what’s been used and bringing stuff in cupboards and freezers forwards
However if i let my paranoid mind wonder a bit it really wouldn't take long for us to end up in a walking dead type scenario.
What if the power network people say no to work, the police? the supermarkets, the fuel suppliers and so on. There is a very slim chance that could happen and like many people mention we aren't china, lots of people won't be doing as the government ask, people will be out robbing. could be very messy.
V6 Pushfit said:
isaldiri said:
ok crack on. so only 6m or whatever in the UK that will die now given your miraculously changing fatality rate.
You really don’t get it do you?Have you seen my post earlier today?
Do you normally read a book and only remember the first page?
Ok ok, let’s be reasonable... what do you think the current rate is - with your calculation please. The floor is yours....
For example, some selected figures (all from the John Hopkins tracker, which has some odd behaviours so some errors may have crept in):
| Total confirmed | Recovered | %age | Deaths | Naive fatality %age | Current CFR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World | 81311 | 30322 | 37.3% | 2770 | 3.4% | 8.4% |
| Hubei | 65187 | 20969 | 32.2% | 2615 | 4.0% | 11.1% |
| China ex Hubei | 12877 | 9073 | 70.5% | 100 | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| Cruise Ship | 705 | 10 | 1.4% | 4 | 0.6% | 28.6% |
| Singapore | 93 | 62 | 66.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| South Korea | 1261 | 22 | 1.7% | 12 | 1.0% | 35.3% |
| Europe | 476 | 40 | 8.4% | 14 | 2.9% | 25.9% |
So on those stats you have a range of recoveries from just 1.4% to over 70%; CFR from 0% to over 35% - I think that indicates a very immature data set and I suspect massively under-represents the likely recoveries, due to the time they take to be confirmed.
Even if you limit yourself to the subsets with the oldest data points i.e. China you still see a significant difference between Hubei Province and China excluding Hubei.
My personal guess is that the overall numbers will eventually land somewhere near the current China excl. Hubei numbers, something very unusual is happening in Hubei (or with their numbers) and the rest of China data set is the only other one that has sufficient data maturity to have representative recoveries and be large enough to be meaningful.
m3jappa said:
It makes sense to me, if there is some disaster at least we will be ok, if there isn't (which i dont think there will be) then we have a load of stuff which will still get used.
However if i let my paranoid mind wonder a bit it really wouldn't take long for us to end up in a walking dead type scenario.
What if the power network people say no to work, the police? the supermarkets, the fuel suppliers and so on. There is a very slim chance that could happen and like many people mention we aren't china, lots of people won't be doing as the government ask, people will be out robbing. could be very messy.
Army. Divide the armed forces into 3 sections and have 3-4 week ‘postings’ so that there’s time for treatment/recovery of each section and constant order?However if i let my paranoid mind wonder a bit it really wouldn't take long for us to end up in a walking dead type scenario.
What if the power network people say no to work, the police? the supermarkets, the fuel suppliers and so on. There is a very slim chance that could happen and like many people mention we aren't china, lots of people won't be doing as the government ask, people will be out robbing. could be very messy.
just an idea and not thought through
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