Coronavirus - Is this the killer flu that will wipe us out?
Discussion
soupdragon1 said:
So overall, your quite optimistic it'll all be ok then?
Sadly, I think this will be affecting all of us in some way or other personally sooner rather than later. Whether it be schools closed, work restrictions, empty shops, cancelled NHS appts and ops, people you know being ill with it, loss of jobs, and people you know catching it. A poster on here was ridiculed when he suggested schools would be shut in a few weeks, at the start of Feb. Some have been already, I think more would be if it were not for the Govt's "advice" before half term, (nothing to see here, all is good).
It is naïve to thing this wont get a hell of a lot worse, before it gets better. And it wont be done and dusted in a few weeks, IMO.
I think we have been sleepwalking into this I hope the authorities have been doing loads behind the scenes to plan for this, but fear the distractions the many new political initiatives may have gotten in the way. For the first Coronavirus Cobra meeting to be held (I think stand to be corrected) only yesterday, suggests to me we are not as on top of it as some would like to believe.
Last night on telly, the chief of the BMA was on reminding us what NOT to do if you feel symptoms, ie not turn up at GP etc, call 111. She then implied people had called 111 and been told to go to GP, so the presenter pushed an said, "really". She repleid people had not been getting the correct info, but would not specifically say they had been told to go to the gp, which was a bit odd. So she then reiterated call 111..! (well she had implied such people had already done that and been given the wrong info, so what, ring again! It made no sense.
However, one thing I did notice, she only told us what not to do, she never mentioned what would or should happen if you call 111. I highly suspect it is because she, as head of BMA, may not actually know. That's fairly worrying IMO. No wonder people then go to the GP etc....
I know some on here have called 111. I would be interesting to hear what they are told. I am aware fo one person who went to hospital and was swab tested in the car park, others saying theya re told to stay at home and a team will come to them. But surely this is a flawed plan? What if the patient is too ill to open the door? What if they get there to test and the patient is gravely ill, needing attention,? How do they get it. Or are they just left..? Its fairly scary to hear that if you go to the GP and they think you may have it, they lock you in a room and get you to call 111 from your own phone, and are not allowed to examine you at all, listen to chest, take temp etc etc.....your own GP...…….? Seems crazy. I suspect not everyone knows that.
pip t said:
poo at Paul's said:
Few hundred, yes. But it won’t be a few hundred.
super spreader gave it to at least 11 people.
Even if everyone who gets it only gives it to 3 others, based on us being 2 months in and China having 75k cases, it will be in the many thousands eventually. Maybe millions.
How many will require hospitalisation, who knows, but it’s likely to be more than a few hundred.
The ONLY thing we can do is stop all travel as a nation and limit out interactions with people. Which will be crippling, but will delay the inevitable spread to give time for a vaccine etc to be developed.
The reinfection news is horrendous.
Whilst some say the Chinese are not covering things up their reaction to it is unprecedented and should have been a warning to us and our govt to not allow this to our shores. But they did the best part of f
k all so it’s here now.
It’s going to be very grim. Economically, medically, socially. It just is. Unprecedented within our lifetimes I believe. How many get it, how many die, who knows, but that will be only part of the issue. The social and economic consequences of this are going to be horrendous.
I firmly believe, sadly, that the world will be a very different place in 12m time. Hell, maybe an awful lot sooner.
Brexit, CC, burning coal, new labour leader, etc etc are all utterly irrelevant compared to this.
IMHO, all our lives are about to change very significantly.
Really? I just don't see it. I'm sure there will be minor restrictions put in place, along with a hefty public emphasis on hygiene - maybe some temporary school closures in hot spots and some mass gatherings (Eg the rugby match) cancelled.super spreader gave it to at least 11 people.
Even if everyone who gets it only gives it to 3 others, based on us being 2 months in and China having 75k cases, it will be in the many thousands eventually. Maybe millions.
How many will require hospitalisation, who knows, but it’s likely to be more than a few hundred.
The ONLY thing we can do is stop all travel as a nation and limit out interactions with people. Which will be crippling, but will delay the inevitable spread to give time for a vaccine etc to be developed.
The reinfection news is horrendous.
Whilst some say the Chinese are not covering things up their reaction to it is unprecedented and should have been a warning to us and our govt to not allow this to our shores. But they did the best part of f
k all so it’s here now. It’s going to be very grim. Economically, medically, socially. It just is. Unprecedented within our lifetimes I believe. How many get it, how many die, who knows, but that will be only part of the issue. The social and economic consequences of this are going to be horrendous.
I firmly believe, sadly, that the world will be a very different place in 12m time. Hell, maybe an awful lot sooner.
Brexit, CC, burning coal, new labour leader, etc etc are all utterly irrelevant compared to this.
IMHO, all our lives are about to change very significantly.
But there's a balance to be found between stopping the spread and the measures used causing their own massive problems. I can't see the government going down the road of severely disruptive measures - they're likely to cause more harm than the virus itself. Who knows, I may be wrong, but I don't see that this is going to be changing our way of life in the manner you suggest.
So, using the adult population of England & Wales (75% of 59m) then, **IF** say 30% of adults in England and Wales got infected over 12 months, and **IF** the IFR could be maintained no higher than 1% (by preventing the NHS getting completely and totally overwhelmed), than that **COULD** mean something like approx.. 11k deaths from this virus per month, for 12 months.
(NOTE - these are not MY estimates. I am simply relaying what various experts have said).
But, a significant proportion of these 11k deaths may have been expected to occur during that 12 month period even had the virus had not been a factor. Let’s guesstimate 5-10%. So that would leave about 10k additional deaths per month for 12 months.
In January, the number of deaths registered in England and Wales was approx. 60k. In an average summer month it’s about 45k.
So, *IF** something along these lines happened, that doesn’t sound completely unfathomable - it’d obviously be tragic for those directly affected, but I would have expected that England & Wales could logistically at least manage such an event provided its impacts are dispersed over time (and geographically too for that matter).
From I personal perspective, I am increasingly contemplating the **prospect** of at risk groups (eg my Dad with COPD) having to try minimise all contact for an extended period, and / or use PPE to give themselves the best chance of avoiding infection until a vaccine is available.
Edited by nffcforever on Thursday 27th February 15:12
Riley Blue said:
cossy400 said:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-5...
I live in Ashbourne and we re all going to die now its this close...........
You should worry, the prevailing wind is westerly and I'm in Chesterfield. I live in Ashbourne and we re all going to die now its this close...........
We seem to be coping
I was in Paris yesterday. Someone in the UK train station I left from was wearing a full-on respirator. Someone else was coughing. I sat on the Eurostar surrounded by Chinese tourists. In Paris there were a few more people about wearing surgical masks. We had our meeting. Commented that we had wondered if they were going to cancel - they laughed, said a senior manager was self-isolating after going to Italy. Few more surgical masks on the train back. My Uber driver from the station said he was refusing to pick up Chinese people.
I don't see any way it isn't going to get loose here.
I don't see any way it isn't going to get loose here.
croyde said:
I find it odd that there doesn't appear to be any news interviews with the 'recovered'
It's like people get tested positive then they disappear.
Not just the tested positive but as you say the ones that have been through it and recovered. It would make a huge difference and give a bit of detail to the unknown as at this stage it looks like we are all going to go through it some time in the next 1-2 years.It's like people get tested positive then they disappear.
There was a china lad that did a video after recovery and it sounded a horrendous journey with hallucinations and all sorts - but he recovered after being given some pills. He was in a hospital converted from a sports hall.
I think a lot of people miss the point about this virus, no medication, I repeat NO medication works against this virus, going to the doctors wont help at all, you have to ride it out in isolation and let your immune system deal with it NOTHING helps, not even paracetamol will help, its just wont bring the fever down. You have to ride it out. Just hope that you don't have a compromised immune system or a existing medical condition. The morality rate is 2% so keep that in mind while your a hallucinating snotty sweating mess in bed..
If you suspect you have it, call 111 so they can test you and rule it out or track the case, DO NOT put others at risk. You can receive NO help from the NHS. The most at risk may receive help depending on 'triage'...
Treat as Flu, you can take paracetamol, it wont help. Drink plenty of water (fking loads) and make sure you eat.
If you suspect you have it, call 111 so they can test you and rule it out or track the case, DO NOT put others at risk. You can receive NO help from the NHS. The most at risk may receive help depending on 'triage'...
Treat as Flu, you can take paracetamol, it wont help. Drink plenty of water (f
king loads) and make sure you eat. mikal83 said:
If the FCO puts Gran Canaria off limits, your insurance policy is void...........no matter when you take it out.Thats my point.
No it really isn’t. Cancellation cover will only apply to holidays you book after you take out the insurance policy. Insurers will cover your cancellation costs should the FCO advise against all but essential travel to your chosen destination.
Your policy will likely be void if you choose to travel if it is AGAINST the advise of the FCO.
CallMeLegend said:
scottydoesntknow said:
RDMcG said:
Dow opening 500 points down. This week will be the fastest ever correction. Impact will be big
US markets are coming off all time highs. I repeat 'all time highs'. We're hardly back at levels at the start of the year. At the end of 2018 early 2019 there was a similarly large market disruption. The move so far is relatively large but nowhere close to biggest ever correction.Foliage said:
I think a lot of people miss the point about this virus, no medication, I repeat NO medication works against this virus, going to the doctors wont help at all, you have to ride it out in isolation and let your immune system deal with it NOTHING helps, not even paracetamol will help, its just wont bring the fever down. You have to ride it out. Just hope that you don't have a compromised immune system or a existing medical condition. The morality rate is 2% so keep that in mind while your a hallucinating snotty sweating mess in bed..
If you suspect you have it, call 111 so they can test you and rule it out or track the case, DO NOT put others at risk. You can receive NO help from the NHS. The most at risk may receive help depending on 'triage'...
Treat as Flu, you can take paracetamol, it wont help. Drink plenty of water (fking loads) and make sure you eat.
Where has anyone said no medication works?If you suspect you have it, call 111 so they can test you and rule it out or track the case, DO NOT put others at risk. You can receive NO help from the NHS. The most at risk may receive help depending on 'triage'...
Treat as Flu, you can take paracetamol, it wont help. Drink plenty of water (f
king loads) and make sure you eat. If it is like flu it’s just about getting rest and painkillers etc.
Even yesterday I read that some American drug may work a bit.
nffcforever said:
I think that **IF** the preliminary expert estimates on possible, potential infections, IFR and hence deaths over the next 12 months are near to correct, in the absence of intense control measures, then we are probably more likely to see attempts being made to flatten out the infections without very intense control measures being used - for the very reason that such intense control measures may do more damage and simply be unsustainable. As far as I can see, that would effectively mean accepting a high number of deaths, but trying to spread them across, say, 12 months.
So, using the adult population of England & Wales (75% of 59m) then, **IF** say 30% of adults in England and Wales got infected over 12 months, and **IF** the IFR could be maintained no higher than 1% (by preventing the NHS getting completely and totally overwhelmed), than that **COULD** mean something like approx.. 11k deaths from this virus per month, for 12 months.
(NOTE - these are not MY estimates. I am simply relaying what various experts have said).
But, a significant proportion of these 11k deaths may have been expected to occur during that 12 month period even had the virus had not been a factor. Let’s guesstimate 5-10%. So that would leave about 10k additional deaths per month for 12 months.
In January, the number of deaths registered in England and Wales was approx. 60k. In an average summer month it’s about 45k.
So, *IF** something along these lines happened, that doesn’t sound completely unfathomable - it’d obviously be tragic for those directly affected, but I would have expected that England & Wales could logistically at least manage such an event provided its impacts are dispersed over time (and geographically too for that matter).
From I personal perspective, I am increasingly contemplating the **prospect** of at risk groups (eg my Dad with COPD) having to try minimise all contact for an extended period, and / or use PPE to give themselves the best chance of avoiding infection until a vaccine is available.
I get the point but how do we get the % to 1%? Without going through it all again the rate is higher ....So, using the adult population of England & Wales (75% of 59m) then, **IF** say 30% of adults in England and Wales got infected over 12 months, and **IF** the IFR could be maintained no higher than 1% (by preventing the NHS getting completely and totally overwhelmed), than that **COULD** mean something like approx.. 11k deaths from this virus per month, for 12 months.
(NOTE - these are not MY estimates. I am simply relaying what various experts have said).
But, a significant proportion of these 11k deaths may have been expected to occur during that 12 month period even had the virus had not been a factor. Let’s guesstimate 5-10%. So that would leave about 10k additional deaths per month for 12 months.
In January, the number of deaths registered in England and Wales was approx. 60k. In an average summer month it’s about 45k.
So, *IF** something along these lines happened, that doesn’t sound completely unfathomable - it’d obviously be tragic for those directly affected, but I would have expected that England & Wales could logistically at least manage such an event provided its impacts are dispersed over time (and geographically too for that matter).
From I personal perspective, I am increasingly contemplating the **prospect** of at risk groups (eg my Dad with COPD) having to try minimise all contact for an extended period, and / or use PPE to give themselves the best chance of avoiding infection until a vaccine is available.
There is an added and significant issue :-
10% of the UK have private healthcare. So the NHS is geared towards the other 90% for operations and beds (and cant usually cope with that). This will be seen as and A&E situation by the private healthcare providers so people wont be covered by BUPA/whatever and will put an extra burden on the NHS....
That is unless the private hospitals (of which there are A LOT) rise to the challenge and become A&E type for the duration of the outbreak. In which case significant pressure will be taken off the NHS
Foliage said:
I think a lot of people miss the point about this virus, no medication, I repeat NO medication works against this virus, going to the doctors wont help at all, you have to ride it out in isolation and let your immune system deal with it NOTHING helps, not even paracetamol will help, its just wont bring the fever down. You have to ride it out. Just hope that you don't have a compromised immune system or a existing medical condition. The morality rate is 2% so keep that in mind.
If you suspect you have it, call 111 so they can test you and rule it out or track the case, DO NOT put others at risk. You can receive NO help from the NHS. The most at risk may receive help depending on 'triage'...
Treat as Flu, you can take paracetamol, it wont help. Drink plenty of water (fking loads) and make sure you eat.
Thats just dangerous ‘advice’ - while there is no magic cure, fluids would help and antibiotics can stop secondary infections. Supplemental oxygen is helping. If you suspect you have it, call 111 so they can test you and rule it out or track the case, DO NOT put others at risk. You can receive NO help from the NHS. The most at risk may receive help depending on 'triage'...
Treat as Flu, you can take paracetamol, it wont help. Drink plenty of water (f
king loads) and make sure you eat. Lots of this is buying time while your immune system works it out - but to say seeking help is pointless is just plain wrong. Definitely don’t rock up at the doctors though.
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