US presidential election 2020:Winner?

[EarlofDrift]

Jimbeaux said:

Fittster said:

If it is the case the more blacks commit crimes, you also need to consider why they do.

This is true, why do you think that is?

Under achievement, lack of interest in available opportunities. Then they see some baller hustling around the projects driving big car being all gangsta and think they can do the same.

[Jimbeaux]

EarlofDrift said:

Under achievement, lack of interest in available opportunities. Then they see some baller hustling around the projects driving big car being all gangsta and think they can do the same.

This certainly does occur. It is deeper though. With 75% of black children being raised with a single mother, it is difficult to be both parent and breadwinner with no help. In addition, that single mother has a certain percentage chance of being a criminal or chemically dependent, leaving the child for the Grandmother to raise or worse, child protective services. The father, who was never present, has an order of child support against him. However, he does not work, therefore that is a mute point.
This leads to your point. There are, in this country, now more programs, set aside jobs, education funding opportunities for minorities than ever before, yet this does not improve. Why take those labor-intensive opportunities when the “ballers” you described offer the gangsta’ lifestyle glamorized in Rap qmusic videos? The why is because the culture I described does not foster in a child the desire to improve or to take a more “ proper” path in life. They want the fast path. Sadly said path leads to prison or an early death in many cases. It is a cycle that must be broken.
Spot example: A report written on 5 August, 2019 indicated that in Chicago, mainly on the West side, that eight months into the year, there were 300 murders and 1600 shot. All in one city, most on the “west side”. That indicates that those 1600 shootings was almost 100% black on black. An example of the culture conditions I just discussed. Oh, and Chicago has just about the toughest gun laws in the nation. See how that works.
Now listen, there are those coming soon to yell racist at me. Consider this, I have only written the facts. If the facts are offensive, perhaps the offended need to change.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Sunday 16th February 02:58

[Countdown]

Jimbeaux said:

Countdown said:

Kanye isnt treated with contempt by many people (not just the black community) because he supports Trump. He’s treated with contempt because he acts like a dick. He’s done it for decades, this is just his latest way of staying in the news.

You compliment him in one post and blast him as a dick in the next. Are you exhibiting multiple personality disorder?

You don’t really get “sarcasm”, do you?

[Jimbeaux]

Countdown said:

You don’t really get “sarcasm”, do you?

Oh I am old friends with sarcasm. I just Guard against the deliverer’s true intent sometimes.

[turbobloke]

Lord Ashcroft Polls: If Trump’s opponents don’t learn from Corbyn’s catastrophe then Donald is guaranteed four more years.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2020/02/if-trumps-op...

[Fittster]

turbobloke said:

Lord Ashcroft Polls: If Trump’s opponents don’t learn from Corbyn’s catastrophe then Donald is guaranteed four more years.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2020/02/if-trumps-op...

Evidence that Lord Ashcroft polls are more accurate predicting US election results than other pollsters?

For example https://cbsaustin.com/news/nation-world/new-poll-s...

You bring your personal bias into the search for evidence.

[turbobloke]

Fittster said:

turbobloke said:

Lord Ashcroft Polls: If Trump’s opponents don’t learn from Corbyn’s catastrophe then Donald is guaranteed four more years.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2020/02/if-trumps-op...

Evidence that Lord Ashcroft polls are more accurate predicting US election results than other pollsters?

For example https://cbsaustin.com/news/nation-world/new-poll-s...

You bring your personal bias into the search for evidence.

No, but you bring your personal and erroneous judgment of others to your replies on PH.

I just got an email from Lord Ashcroft Polls, as happens with several news sources, so didn't search for anything.

HTH . Where's your evidence Lord A polling is so wide of the mark here?

[Fittster]

turbobloke said:

Fittster said:

turbobloke said:

Lord Ashcroft Polls: If Trump’s opponents don’t learn from Corbyn’s catastrophe then Donald is guaranteed four more years.

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2020/02/if-trumps-op...

Evidence that Lord Ashcroft polls are more accurate predicting US election results than other pollsters?

For example https://cbsaustin.com/news/nation-world/new-poll-s...

You bring your personal bias into the search for evidence.

No, but you bring your personal and erroneous judgment of others to your replies on PH.

I just got an email from Lord Ashcroft Polls, as happens with several news sources, so didn't search for anything.

HTH . Where's your evidence Lord A polling is so wide of the mark here?

You post a poll by a right wing politician which supports a right wing position.

Pseudoscience babble and multiple quotes can't mask the fact that you have right wing views that you wish to share.

[turbobloke]

Article based on Gallup polling:
"Trump's current 49% approval puts him ahead of where his predecessor, Barack Obama, was at this same time in his first term"
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/04/politics/donald...

The Independent: "Trump On Course To Win in 2020 according to Polling Models That Have Only Been Wrong Once"
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/...

Even when commentators were bluffing against a Trump second term last year, the polls told a different story. "Swing state polling suggests Donald Trump's 2020 re-election"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/04/swing-...

And the rest.

Reporting on what evidence there is, given polls are available whereas a working crystal ball isn't, doesn't reflect bias in the reporter. The polls point the same way. As per Lord Ashcroft, if the Democrats fail to learn from their previous failure and from Corbyn's disaster, they'll lose. Tne Democrats went full tilt for impeachment and that didn't help either.

Personal attacks don't cut it as compelling evidence, same as PH. Trump's opponent are welcome to carry on with more of the same, making the result more likely to be the same. A strong candidate and credible policies (AOC's GND ) are needed. Nothing much is available right now, except for the same personal attacks which, however justified they may be, don't work as intended.

[Carl_Manchester]

Fittster said:

You post a poll by a right wing politician which supports a right wing position.

Pseudoscience babble and multiple quotes can't mask the fact that you have right wing views that you wish to share.

The problem facing the Democrats is that their front-running Presidential candidates will split the vote. The only two they had in the running that could have won the centre ground are Biden, Warren, with Blue-Republican Bloomberg perhaps an outsider.

A Sanders win in the primaries will split the vote or, if Sanders does not win, they will vote for Trump like they did in 2016 or, just won't turn up to vote at all.

That's why the Democratic 'win' scenarios either need Biden to run or, for Democrats/Swing Voters to turn up en-masse for Sanders/Buttigieg, which they will, in California and on Twitter leaving them wondering why they lost another election.

I think the Polls need to be re-checked once the Democratic candidate is known, as I have a sneaking suspicion that the previous polls would have assumed a Trump vs. Biden campaign.

[Teddy Lop]

Carl_Manchester said:

The problem facing the Democrats is that their front-running Presidential candidates will split the vote. The only two they had in the running that could have won the centre ground are Biden, Warren, with Blue-Republican Bloomberg perhaps an outsider.

A Sanders win in the primaries will split the vote or, if Sanders does not win, they will vote for Trump like they did in 2016 or, just won't turn up to vote at all.

That's why the Democratic 'win' scenarios either need Biden to run or, for Democrats/Swing Voters to turn up en-masse for Sanders/Buttigieg, which they will, in California and on Twitter leaving them wondering why they lost another election.

I think the Polls need to be re-checked once the Democratic candidate is known, as I have a sneaking suspicion that the previous polls would have assumed a Trump vs. Biden campaign.

I often ponder how many true swing voters there are out there, or if instead much of what is ascribed to swing voting is the party with the better overall candidate energising more support from their own while the lessor candidates flock stay at home, or vote for an indy

This is not to say swing voters don't exist, to pre empt the trivial.

[DeltonaS]

Jimbeaux said:

EarlofDrift said:

Under achievement, lack of interest in available opportunities. Then they see some baller hustling around the projects driving big car being all gangsta and think they can do the same.

This certainly does occur. It is deeper though. With 75% of black children being raised with a single mother, it is difficult to be both parent and breadwinner with no help. In addition, that single mother has a certain percentage chance of being a criminal or chemically dependent, leaving the child for the Grandmother to raise or worse, child protective services. The father, who was never present, has an order of child support against him. However, he does not work, therefore that is a mute point.
This leads to your point. There are, in this country, now more programs, set aside jobs, education funding opportunities for minorities than ever before, yet this does not improve. Why take those labor-intensive opportunities when the “ballers” you described offer the gangsta’ lifestyle glamorized in Rap qmusic videos? The why is because the culture I described does not foster in a child the desire to improve or to take a more “ proper” path in life. They want the fast path. Sadly said path leads to prison or an early death in many cases. It is a cycle that must be broken.
Spot example: A report written on 5 August, 2019 indicated that in Chicago, mainly on the West side, that eight months into the year, there were 300 murders and 1600 shot. All in one city, most on the “west side”. That indicates that those 1600 shootings was almost 100% black on black. An example of the culture conditions I just discussed. Oh, and Chicago has just about the toughest gun laws in the nation. See how that works.
Now listen, there are those coming soon to yell racist at me. Consider this, I have only written the facts. If the facts are offensive, perhaps the offended need to change.

A vicious circle of a lack of education, ghetto forming in larger US city's leading to children growing up in an environment full of wrong examples (job-/home-lessness/drug-/alcohol-/medicine addiction and gang culture), limited access to (expensive)healthcare, all leading to many social problems, crime and a class society.

Another example, what I noticed in New York myself, is that in the US it's seems fairly common that old, unused and sometimes half torn down houses and businesses in lesser areas are untouched and seemingly unnoticed for extended periods of time. Leading to cluttering of neighbourhoods and ghetto forming. Chicago is an even better example in that respect.

[ZX10R NIN]

Jimbeaux said:

This certainly does occur. It is deeper though. With 75% of black children being raised with a single mother, it is difficult to be both parent and breadwinner with no help. In addition, that single mother has a certain percentage chance of being a criminal or chemically dependent, leaving the child for the Grandmother to raise or worse, child protective services. The father, who was never present, has an order of child support against him. However, he does not work, therefore that is a mute point.
This leads to your point. There are, in this country, now more programs, set aside jobs, education funding opportunities for minorities than ever before, yet this does not improve. Why take those labor-intensive opportunities when the “ballers” you described offer the gangsta’ lifestyle glamorized in Rap qmusic videos? The why is because the culture I described does not foster in a child the desire to improve or to take a more “ proper” path in life. They want the fast path. Sadly said path leads to prison or an early death in many cases. It is a cycle that must be broken.
Spot example: A report written on 5 August, 2019 indicated that in Chicago, mainly on the West side, that eight months into the year, there were 300 murders and 1600 shot. All in one city, most on the “west side”. That indicates that those 1600 shootings was almost 100% black on black. An example of the culture conditions I just discussed. Oh, and Chicago has just about the toughest gun laws in the nation. See how that works.

Now listen, there are those coming soon to yell racist at me. Consider this, I have only written the facts. If the facts are offensive, perhaps the offended need to change.

Edited by Jimbeaux on Sunday 16th February 02:58

It's even more nuanced than many studies have showed that Minorities & the White population use/sell drugs at a similar rate now if you had the same level of police enforcement that was garnered to the minorities there'd be a similar level of white people being imprisoned.

Taking when Bloomberg was in charge of stop & frisk in one year they sopped & frisked 700,000 people 88% were minorities the number of illegal guns found was 1.1% for minorities from the 12% of white people stopped it was 1.6%, no one will know if they'd have found more because in Bloomberg's view (there's a recording of him saying this) white people shouldn't be stopped as they're normally the victims of crime.

Now this sentiment feeds down the chain of command then you get higher policing in one area therefore the figures get distorted also a lot of those arrests were for fare evasion.

Chicago was going through a big drugs war last year, but figures for this coming quarter are looking to be lower, now imagine they invested that level of policing on actually cutting the supply to the streets which would in turn would slow a lot of crimes with whites & minorities alike but that won't be happening anytime soon as those high up are benefiting hugely from the drugs trade & the crime.

Edited by ZX10R NIN on Sunday 16th February 16:18

[Jimbeaux]

ZX10R NIN said:

ZX, edit and reformat your above post, you have us intermingled far too intimately. smile

[ZX10R NIN]

So it did

[Jimbeaux]

ZX10R NIN said:

So it did

Thank you sir. I have been guilty of that more times than Mr Trump has been spray tanned.

[kowalski655]

Fittster said:

If it is the case the more blacks commit crimes, you also need to consider why they do.

OR why rich white folk get off

[paulguitar]

kowalski655 said:

OR why rich white folk get off

I just read a book written by a man black man from Alabama who spent 30 years on death row before being exonerated by DNA evidence. He was literally nowhere near the crime scene. He estimates 10% of death row prisoners are innocent and it’s clear from his point of view that you are far better off in the USA being rich and guilty than innocent and poor.

[Jimbeaux]

rxe said:

To many people in the US, socialised heathcare is pretty much communism. Their Left/Right divide is like arguing between Tony Blair and Margaret Thatcher.

Yep that is horrible. That man is owed a lot. I’m pretty sure the majority like him are all being screwed the same way.

[turbobloke]

CNN on cable has been offering comedy gold this morning. With young Bloomberg rising in the polls, his vexed 'fellow' Democrats have been lining up to have a pop at him. It's not fair he's a billionaire, it's not fair he's got advertising, it's not fair his popularity is growing. It's not fair. There's nothing like learning lessons to make progress, and that's nothing like it.