Scottish Referendum / Independence - Vol 9

[lothianJim]

Given we are so tightly tethered to no 10’s job support programs is there any other choice?

[Troubleatmill]

lothianJim said:

Given we are so tightly tethered to no 10’s job support programs is there any other choice?

Makes you wonder why devolved parliaments just don’t go along with a single UK response to Covid.

[TheRainMaker]

Troubleatmill said:

lothianJim said:

Given we are so tightly tethered to no 10’s job support programs is there any other choice?

Makes you wonder why devolved parliaments just don’t go along with a single UK response to Covid.

There are some things which should really be done by central government, this is clearly one such task, all that has happened is we now have four groups trying to sort the same problem, it’s a massive waste of resources.

It’s not a regional problem, it’s bigger than that.

[lothianJim]

Do you want to follow England into hard lockdown even if current measures prove to be sufficient?

[Beato]

I don't want a hard lock down again but she has backed herself into a corner. Top trumping England with 5 levels instead of three scored some points.

Now she is going to ignore the science and be seen by all to definitely be making this political (which we all know has been the case all along anyway)

LOL

[TheRainMaker]

lothianJim said:

Do you want to follow England into hard lockdown even if current measures prove to be sufficient?

I don't know if they will be sufficient, my guess and it is only a guess is they won't be and Scotland will end up in a lockdown, just like England, France, Spain, Italy, Germany etc

Unless the Scottish scientists know something everyone else doesn't

My point was, rather than having four different systems in place, with four different sets of rules and four different sets of people doing the same job, sometimes it's better to work as one and pull all resources together.
.

[hidetheelephants]

Deathmole said:

Is that HMS KG5? The turrets don't look right to me although it is half past five in the morning so bear with me

It's certainly a KGV class, no idea if it's possible to definitively identify which one from the pic though.

[ninepoint2]

hiccy18 said:

We've now got three weeks until Greater Glasgow & Clyde health board runs out of ICU beds according to government forecasts, tier three starts today and it's essentially "no change" compared to existing Central Belt restrictions; the virus appears to have a 2-3 week cycle (infection > incubation > symptoms) so change would need to come this week to alter the path of the infection in time. The SG could apply tier 4 nationwide and bring us in to line with English restrictions that are supposed to come into force on Thursday allowing furlough scheme extension until 2nd December at the earliest: do they start it on Thursday in line with England?

Schools and Unis need to close

[coppernorks]

Beato said:

I don't want a hard lock down again but she has backed herself into a corner. Top trumping England with 5 levels instead of three scored some points.

Now she is going to ignore the science and be seen by all to definitely be making this political (which we all know has been the case all along anyway)

LOL

Following the "science" with a 3 tier system got England nowhere fast, an England wide lock-down
is the result where the good folk of Cornwall with hardly any cases are lumped in with the tattooed chavs of
Liverpool and Manchester.

For once I think the Krankie has made a good call.

[Beato]

coppernorks said:

Beato said:

I don't want a hard lock down again but she has backed herself into a corner. Top trumping England with 5 levels instead of three scored some points.

Now she is going to ignore the science and be seen by all to definitely be making this political (which we all know has been the case all along anyway)

LOL

Following the "science" with a 3 tier system got England nowhere fast, an England wide lock-down
is the result where the good folk of Cornwall with hardly any cases are lumped in with the tattooed chavs of
Liverpool and Manchester.

For once I think the Krankie has made a good call.

Fair point. Same goes for Orkney and Shetland being different from central belt I guess

Hopefully the 5 tier system will get a chance to work and no lockdown if furlough extension can happen in the coming months for Scotland

[hutchst]

ninepoint2 said:

hiccy18 said:

We've now got three weeks until Greater Glasgow & Clyde health board runs out of ICU beds according to government forecasts, tier three starts today and it's essentially "no change" compared to existing Central Belt restrictions; the virus appears to have a 2-3 week cycle (infection > incubation > symptoms) so change would need to come this week to alter the path of the infection in time. The SG could apply tier 4 nationwide and bring us in to line with English restrictions that are supposed to come into force on Thursday allowing furlough scheme extension until 2nd December at the earliest: do they start it on Thursday in line with England?

Schools and Unis need to close

Riiiiiight. One man's government forecast is another man's political pish.

[hiccy18]

hutchst said:

Riiiiiight. One man's government forecast is another man's political pish.

I'm not confirming or denying the veracity of that statement, that's the situation the government claims we're in as written in the statement published regarding the tiers linked in this thread last week.

[irc]

hiccy18 said:

hutchst said:

Riiiiiight. One man's government forecast is another man's political pish.

I'm not confirming or denying the veracity of that statement, that's the situation the government claims we're in as written in the statement published regarding the tiers linked in this thread last week.

If you are quoting a published statement a link hrlps.

[ant1973]

I see that there is a suggestion that the furlough cash will not be available to Scotland post November...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/furlou...

Those are some top quality weasel words which offer zero clarity on the subject. Of course, the SNP would be delighted with the cash alternative which they could apply to whatever they wanted e.g. microphones in every home to ensure that there was no criticism of the party or the discussions of other cultural outrages....

Will be interested if she locks down to secure the cash.

Either way, we are in for a lot of lateral head movement today....

[Leithen]

If No.11 offers Sturgeon a blank furlough cheque, Devi Sridhar will have the country locked down faster than Murrell can say WhatsApp.

Followed swiftly by prohibition.

[irc]

ant1973 said:

I see that there is a suggestion that the furlough cash will not be available to Scotland post November...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/furlou...

Those are some top quality weasel words which offer zero clarity on the subject. Of course, the SNP would be delighted with the cash alternative which they could apply to whatever they wanted e.g. microphones in every home to ensure that there was no criticism of the party or the discussions of other cultural outrages....

Will be interested if she locks down to secure the cash.

Either way, we are in for a lot of lateral head movement today....

Kate Forbes on BBC R Scotland didn't have a good answer to why if we are following the science we aren't locked down already.

In any case loss of wages is not the only damage a lockdown does.


The English lockdown case has been discredited anyway. Based on 3 week old stats which allows a check on how it has gone up to 1st Nov. Prediction - 1000 deaths. Actual - 200 deaths.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-innacuracoes-in-...

Meanwhil in the Mail stats cherry picking is shown where a graph showed the 29 worst hospitals for covid. Nationwide graph much less scary.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8907339/H...





Shameless fearmongering.

Graham Brady nailed it.

""The aspect of lockdown restrictions that bother me most is the extent of the intrusion of what ordinarily we see as fundamental human rights - the freedom of association, the right to a family life.

"We even have the Government telling people who they are allowed to sleep with or not depending on whether they are deemed to be in an established relationship or not.

"If these kinds of measures were being taken in any totalitarian country around the world we would be denouncing it as a form of evil.

"And here the removal of people's fundamental liberties is going almost without comment."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1354875/coronavi...

[ant1973]

irc said:

ant1973 said:

I see that there is a suggestion that the furlough cash will not be available to Scotland post November...

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/furlou...

Those are some top quality weasel words which offer zero clarity on the subject. Of course, the SNP would be delighted with the cash alternative which they could apply to whatever they wanted e.g. microphones in every home to ensure that there was no criticism of the party or the discussions of other cultural outrages....

Will be interested if she locks down to secure the cash.

Either way, we are in for a lot of lateral head movement today....

Kate Forbes on BBC R Scotland didn't have a good answer to why if we are following the science we aren't locked down already.

In any case loss of wages is not the only damage a lockdown does.


The English lockdown case has been discredited anyway. Based on 3 week old stats which allows a check on how it has gone up to 1st Nov. Prediction - 1000 deaths. Actual - 200 deaths.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/the-innacuracoes-in-...

Meanwhil in the Mail stats cherry picking is shown where a graph showed the 29 worst hospitals for covid. Nationwide graph much less scary.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8907339/H...





Shameless fearmongering.

Graham Brady nailed it.

""The aspect of lockdown restrictions that bother me most is the extent of the intrusion of what ordinarily we see as fundamental human rights - the freedom of association, the right to a family life.

"We even have the Government telling people who they are allowed to sleep with or not depending on whether they are deemed to be in an established relationship or not.

"If these kinds of measures were being taken in any totalitarian country around the world we would be denouncing it as a form of evil.

"And here the removal of people's fundamental liberties is going almost without comment."

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1354875/coronavi...

Yup - agree with almost all of that.

The basic point is this: if the virus was something to fear, they would not have to be fining students £10k for having a party. Most people would of their own volition take steps to limit their contact with others.

[lothianJim]

I don't think it's wise to follow England into lockdown for the sake of securing furlough money. It's false economy. If virus levels flatten under current restrictions, , the political and economic value of holding course would be significant enough.

Not sure I understand the point re 10k fines. The difficulty in persuading young healthy adults to change behaviour when they have nothing personally to gain from doing so, is a recognised epidemiological problem? Doesn't really speak to the systemic risk as a whole.

[Pablo16v]

lothianJim said:

I don't think it's wise to follow England into lockdown for the sake of securing furlough money. It's false economy. If virus levels flatten under current restrictions, , the political and economic value of holding course would be significant enough.

Not sure I understand the point re 10k fines. The difficulty in persuading young healthy adults to change behaviour when they have nothing personally to gain from doing so, is a recognised epidemiological problem? Doesn't really speak to the systemic risk as a whole.

The levels have been flattening and starting to drop for the past week or so which is good to see, so hopefully the tier system is working. I get this info every day from a Facebooker who is compiling the data so not my work. Thought it might be of interest on here though.

As of Nov 1st

1148 new positive tests (4% more than yesterday)
18565 new tests reported results (27% fewer than yesterday)
This is 6.2% positive percentage rate (1.9% more than yesterday)

They are also reporting out of 18565 tests, they had 1304 come back positive . This gives a percentage rate of 7.0% (2.0% more than yesterday).
There were 6068 newly tested individuals recorded in the last 24 hours (2% less than yesterday).

Local data:
Greater Glasgow and Clyde 443 ? 18%
Lothian 140 ? 16%
Lanarkshire 253 ? 20%
Tayside 56 ? 37%
Grampian 30 ? 29%
Ayrshire and Arran 83 ? 1%
Three island boards 0
Remainder 143
Big swings in the infections today again…

6 new reported deaths* in those who have tested positive (18 fewer than reported yesterday)
81 people in ITU with a recently positive test (+1 since yesterday)**
1193 come through hospital with a recently positive test - through the 14 days prior to admission or having tested positive in hospital the last 28 days (+4% since yesterday)***

Weekly data:
Deaths week ending 25th October: 106 (31 more than the week before)
New cases reported: week ending 31st October: 46013 people newly tested – 8309 positive for the first time (18.1%).

Comment:
Graph 1 is still dancing along that 1200 infections per day line, but trending down now.
Graph 2 showing that percentage positive rate is turning down while the number of positive tests remains really constant.
Graph 3 shows what we already know, that ‘cases’ nationwide are flat - they all turned further down today.
Graph 4 shows that ITU admissions are definitely flat for a week and the hospitalisations are continuing to slow. This is all great news!

[NoddyonNitrous]

Daily updated stats here:- https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/...