Home Secretary announces points-based immigration system
Discussion
Countdown said:
BOR said:
This is brilliant for us. We are struggling to recruit enough skilled/semi-skilled immigrants into Germany, so anything that puts people off going to the UK will be great for us.
I can't believe you are knee-capping your own economy like this.
Fingers crossed for a Non Free Trade Brexit now, to really cripple your industries.
Pah! What do the Germans know about running a successful Economy?I can't believe you are knee-capping your own economy like this.
Fingers crossed for a Non Free Trade Brexit now, to really cripple your industries.
BOR said:
This is brilliant for us. We are struggling to recruit enough skilled/semi-skilled immigrants into Germany, so anything that puts people off going to the UK will be great for us.
I can't believe you are knee-capping your own economy like this.
Fingers crossed for a Non Free Trade Brexit now, to really cripple your industries.
Leavers will no doubt realise too late. Then moan. I can't believe you are knee-capping your own economy like this.
Fingers crossed for a Non Free Trade Brexit now, to really cripple your industries.
Many still in utter denial of the consequences - and admiring a guy saying he doesn’t believe in experts. Again.
We appear to be close to at least one definition of full employment, a realistic one where the number of people in short term unemployment is equivalent to registered job vacancies.
If unemployment is 1.29 Million and vacancies are 810,000, there is possibly as small a gap as we have ever seen?
Remove a chunk of the employed labour force and very quickly the gap disappears.
I suspect a number of tory donors will complain loudly that their labour costs are going through the roof. There will be sector exemptions quietly granted left right and centre.
Boris et Dom will of course ignore this and proclaim that they have closed the borders to immigrants.
Expect ONS changes to how the figures are calculated within months.
If unemployment is 1.29 Million and vacancies are 810,000, there is possibly as small a gap as we have ever seen?
Remove a chunk of the employed labour force and very quickly the gap disappears.
I suspect a number of tory donors will complain loudly that their labour costs are going through the roof. There will be sector exemptions quietly granted left right and centre.
Boris et Dom will of course ignore this and proclaim that they have closed the borders to immigrants.
Expect ONS changes to how the figures are calculated within months.
s1962a said:
Also means my kids will probably be able to get a part time Saturday job in retail like I had when I was young. Not a bad thing really.
If your kids wanted to get a part time job they could now. Probably half the bars and takeaways I walk past say 'part time staff wanted'. If you think that the fault of your kids not getting jobs is that foreign labour is taking all the positions, that's simply not true and you should look closer to home. Besides, all the retail and such like jobs are minimum wage anyway, so it's not as if the Europeans are undercutting rates!
king arthur said:
Condi said:
king arthur said:
Why do they have to be from Poland?
Twas an example, they could be from anywhere. But the point still stands that even if they can legally come here, adding paperwork and complexity means they are less likely to. As it’s a level playing field for the whole wide world (maybe), then the seasonal or lower paid jobs will presumably be filled by the lower skilled from other poor countries in the world. Not just typically Eastern European.
I wonder if the average brexit voter realised that hard working migrant labour will always be needed.
Just opened it up to other sources of ‘cheap’ labour.
Assuming that the lazy Brits don’t get off their backsides of course!
I wonder if the average brexit voter realised that hard working migrant labour will always be needed.
Just opened it up to other sources of ‘cheap’ labour.
Assuming that the lazy Brits don’t get off their backsides of course!
amusingduck said:
Doesn't work that way here, why do you assume it'd be the same for Polish people?
It's already well under way. | Destination | Number UK Expats |
|---|---|
| 1. Australia | 1,277k |
| 2. USA | 758k |
| 3. Canada | 674k |
| 4. Spain | 381k |
| 5. New Zealand | 314k |
| 6. South Africa | 305k |
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-bound-poles-kiss-uk-...
It's almost within commuting distance to here in Germany for many Poles - any previous advantages in heading to the UK are gone.
Even before you consider the negative feelings many Eastern Europeans harbour towards the British now that they realise they're not welcome.
This immigration will crucify many businesses in the UK.
Low paid service roles, waiters, waitresses, agriculture, manufacturing, food processing are all going to be extremely difficult to fill.
The vast majority of the low skilled UK workers that "want to work" - already work. What you're left with, is the UK underclass that really have no intention of working. In our sector, we rely on Eastern European labour via temp agencies and these account for 95% of our production staff. They run rings around the very few UK workers that we have occasionally (forced to work via the employment agencies) and it's often an embarrassment to be labelled British.
Over the last six months more and more migrant workers are heading back home but often to Germany (largely due to Brexit and the exchange rate hasn't helped). The agency we source from, supply upwards of 1000 Eastern European workers locally per day to the local agricultural sector. A local pepper producer take 300 temp staff per day whilst another horticultural producer take in excess of 600 per day. This is having a dramatic effect on our business (manufacturing) - we just cannot get the required level of staff and we have no room to increase pay (the agency already receive £12.20 per hour)
It's not ideal and a shame for our skilled UK workforce but after much discussion with our staffing agencies, it's looking increasingly likely that the business will relocate into Europe (certainly the manufacturing arm) as much of our product is sent into the EU anyhow.
Low paid service roles, waiters, waitresses, agriculture, manufacturing, food processing are all going to be extremely difficult to fill.
The vast majority of the low skilled UK workers that "want to work" - already work. What you're left with, is the UK underclass that really have no intention of working. In our sector, we rely on Eastern European labour via temp agencies and these account for 95% of our production staff. They run rings around the very few UK workers that we have occasionally (forced to work via the employment agencies) and it's often an embarrassment to be labelled British.
Over the last six months more and more migrant workers are heading back home but often to Germany (largely due to Brexit and the exchange rate hasn't helped). The agency we source from, supply upwards of 1000 Eastern European workers locally per day to the local agricultural sector. A local pepper producer take 300 temp staff per day whilst another horticultural producer take in excess of 600 per day. This is having a dramatic effect on our business (manufacturing) - we just cannot get the required level of staff and we have no room to increase pay (the agency already receive £12.20 per hour)
It's not ideal and a shame for our skilled UK workforce but after much discussion with our staffing agencies, it's looking increasingly likely that the business will relocate into Europe (certainly the manufacturing arm) as much of our product is sent into the EU anyhow.
dan98 said:
amusingduck said:
Doesn't work that way here, why do you assume it'd be the same for Polish people?
It's already well under way. | Destination | Number UK Expats |
|---|---|
| 1. Australia | 1,277k |
| 2. USA | 758k |
| 3. Canada | 674k |
| 4. Spain | 381k |
| 5. New Zealand | 314k |
| 6. South Africa | 305k |
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-bound-poles-kiss-uk-...
It's almost within commuting distance to here in Germany for many Poles - any previous advantages in heading to the UK are gone.
Even before you consider the negative feelings many Eastern Europeans harbour towards the British now that they realise they're not welcome.
paulw123 said:
Surely quotas will just be adapted if there are shortages, especially for agriculture with something like ‘agriculture visas’ or something. It’s a working project. Not set in stone.
But the advantages of the EU system is that it is easy. You get on a bus in Bulgaria, or Poland, or wherever, and then get off 36 hours later in England, and look for work. Once you add the requirement for visas, paperwork, quotas, delays at the border, etc the low skilled worker you want isn't going to be bothered with all that, they'll go elsewhere. Unless of course we have to pay such good wages that someone can be bothered to do all that for 6 months work here, in which case we'll all be paying more and most likely the factories and farms needing the cheap labour will have relocated elsewhere, somewhere cheaper.
Leithen said:
We appear to be close to at least one definition of full employment, a realistic one where the number of people in short term unemployment is equivalent to registered job vacancies.
If unemployment is 1.29 Million and vacancies are 810,000, there is possibly as small a gap as we have ever seen?
Remove a chunk of the employed labour force and very quickly the gap disappears.
I suspect a number of tory donors will complain loudly that their labour costs are going through the roof. There will be sector exemptions quietly granted left right and centre.
Boris et Dom will of course ignore this and proclaim that they have closed the borders to immigrants.
Expect ONS changes to how the figures are calculated within months.
After 12 years real wages have now returned to the level they were before the financial crises. Last year we once again had another year with very little productivity growth (0.3% growth in output per hour).If unemployment is 1.29 Million and vacancies are 810,000, there is possibly as small a gap as we have ever seen?
Remove a chunk of the employed labour force and very quickly the gap disappears.
I suspect a number of tory donors will complain loudly that their labour costs are going through the roof. There will be sector exemptions quietly granted left right and centre.
Boris et Dom will of course ignore this and proclaim that they have closed the borders to immigrants.
Expect ONS changes to how the figures are calculated within months.
I think perhaps we can stand a few wage increases and if a few sectors dependent on taxpayer subsidies (via in work benefits) have to pay their staff a bit more it will be no tragedy.
Hang on.
One group of doom mongers say that automation will cause massive problems for low skilled people.
Another group of doom mongers say that we need more low skilled people because we have no automation.
Which of the doom mongers is correct?
Actually what will happen is something in between. It will be hard to find minimum wage people. Some employers will have to pay more - and then the government can pay less. Others will automate.
The old option of "we're going to chuck bodies at it, and let the government top up the wages" won't work any more. This is a good thing.
One group of doom mongers say that automation will cause massive problems for low skilled people.
Another group of doom mongers say that we need more low skilled people because we have no automation.
Which of the doom mongers is correct?
Actually what will happen is something in between. It will be hard to find minimum wage people. Some employers will have to pay more - and then the government can pay less. Others will automate.
The old option of "we're going to chuck bodies at it, and let the government top up the wages" won't work any more. This is a good thing.
dan98 said:
amusingduck said:
Doesn't work that way here, why do you assume it'd be the same for Polish people?
It's already well under way. | Destination | Number UK Expats |
|---|---|
| 1. Australia | 1,277k |
| 2. USA | 758k |
| 3. Canada | 674k |
| 4. Spain | 381k |
| 5. New Zealand | 314k |
| 6. South Africa | 305k |
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-bound-poles-kiss-uk-...
It's almost within commuting distance to here in Germany for many Poles - any previous advantages in heading to the UK are gone.
Even before you consider the negative feelings many Eastern Europeans harbour towards the British now that they realise they're not welcome.
dw said:
And it seems to be working. The number of Poles working in the UK has dropped by 98,000 to 695,000, meaning the UK now trails Germany's 706,000 Polish workers. This is the first time the UK hasn't topped the list since 2006.
Since joining the EU, the number of economic migrants in the EU from Poland has more than doubled to 2.5 million in 2017, according to figures from the Polish statistical office. At 783,000 in 2016, including 55,000 in Berlin, Poles now make up the second-biggest foreign community in Germany, after Turks.
Am I misreading that? It seems to say that Poles in Germany have reduced from 783k to 706k?Since joining the EU, the number of economic migrants in the EU from Poland has more than doubled to 2.5 million in 2017, according to figures from the Polish statistical office. At 783,000 in 2016, including 55,000 in Berlin, Poles now make up the second-biggest foreign community in Germany, after Turks.
Candellara said:
This immigration will crucify many businesses in the UK.
Low paid service roles, waiters, waitresses, agriculture, manufacturing, food processing are all going to be extremely difficult to fill.
The vast majority of the low skilled UK workers that "want to work" - already work. What you're left with, is the UK underclass that really have no intention of working. In our sector, we rely on Eastern European labour via temp agencies and these account for 95% of our production staff. They run rings around the very few UK workers that we have occasionally (forced to work via the employment agencies) and it's often an embarrassment to be labelled British.
Over the last six months more and more migrant workers are heading back home but often to Germany (largely due to Brexit and the exchange rate hasn't helped). The agency we source from, supply upwards of 1000 Eastern European workers locally per day to the local agricultural sector. A local pepper producer take 300 temp staff per day whilst another horticultural producer take in excess of 600 per day. This is having a dramatic effect on our business (manufacturing) - we just cannot get the required level of staff and we have no room to increase pay (the agency already receive £12.20 per hour)
It's not ideal and a shame for our skilled UK workforce but after much discussion with our staffing agencies, it's looking increasingly likely that the business will relocate into Europe (certainly the manufacturing arm) as much of our product is sent into the EU anyhow.
Why are so many Eastern Europeans coming over to the UK to do these 'low paid service roles'? Why aren't they picking fruit or waiting tables in their home country?Low paid service roles, waiters, waitresses, agriculture, manufacturing, food processing are all going to be extremely difficult to fill.
The vast majority of the low skilled UK workers that "want to work" - already work. What you're left with, is the UK underclass that really have no intention of working. In our sector, we rely on Eastern European labour via temp agencies and these account for 95% of our production staff. They run rings around the very few UK workers that we have occasionally (forced to work via the employment agencies) and it's often an embarrassment to be labelled British.
Over the last six months more and more migrant workers are heading back home but often to Germany (largely due to Brexit and the exchange rate hasn't helped). The agency we source from, supply upwards of 1000 Eastern European workers locally per day to the local agricultural sector. A local pepper producer take 300 temp staff per day whilst another horticultural producer take in excess of 600 per day. This is having a dramatic effect on our business (manufacturing) - we just cannot get the required level of staff and we have no room to increase pay (the agency already receive £12.20 per hour)
It's not ideal and a shame for our skilled UK workforce but after much discussion with our staffing agencies, it's looking increasingly likely that the business will relocate into Europe (certainly the manufacturing arm) as much of our product is sent into the EU anyhow.
Response to the new rules:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-immig...
(Pretty obvious really - bad news for much of the economy). Care & Hospitality sectors will fall apart in Highland Scotland for sure, there are just not enough local people to do the jobs. Currently 90%+ EU nationals employed that will no longer 'get enough points' to enter.
You can't 'up retention' as suggested as it's seasonal work - 5 months of downtime. And as for using automation, show me the robot that makes beds and cleans bogs!
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-immig...
(Pretty obvious really - bad news for much of the economy). Care & Hospitality sectors will fall apart in Highland Scotland for sure, there are just not enough local people to do the jobs. Currently 90%+ EU nationals employed that will no longer 'get enough points' to enter.
You can't 'up retention' as suggested as it's seasonal work - 5 months of downtime. And as for using automation, show me the robot that makes beds and cleans bogs!
Condi said:
s1962a said:
Also means my kids will probably be able to get a part time Saturday job in retail like I had when I was young. Not a bad thing really.
If your kids wanted to get a part time job they could now. Probably half the bars and takeaways I walk past say 'part time staff wanted'. If you think that the fault of your kids not getting jobs is that foreign labour is taking all the positions, that's simply not true and you should look closer to home. Besides, all the retail and such like jobs are minimum wage anyway, so it's not as if the Europeans are undercutting rates!
rxe said:
Hang on.
One group of doom mongers say that automation will cause massive problems for low skilled people.
Another group of doom mongers say that we need more low skilled people because we have no automation.
Which of the doom mongers is correct?
Actually what will happen is something in between. It will be hard to find minimum wage people. Some employers will have to pay more - and then the government can pay less. Others will automate.
The old option of "we're going to chuck bodies at it, and let the government top up the wages" won't work any more. This is a good thing.
What I find interesting is this conviction you cannot automate low skilled work, or at least a proportion of it.One group of doom mongers say that automation will cause massive problems for low skilled people.
Another group of doom mongers say that we need more low skilled people because we have no automation.
Which of the doom mongers is correct?
Actually what will happen is something in between. It will be hard to find minimum wage people. Some employers will have to pay more - and then the government can pay less. Others will automate.
The old option of "we're going to chuck bodies at it, and let the government top up the wages" won't work any more. This is a good thing.
If you go a supermarket and use a self service till you are using an automated service that ten years ago would have been done by Doris on the till. If you go to MacDonald's and use a touchscreen to order then the same. not every job can be automated but enough can to finally see some productivity growth again.
Edited by JagLover on Wednesday 19th February 13:52
JagLover said:
What I find interesting is this conviction you cannot automate low stilled work, or at least a proportion of it.
If you go a supermarket and use a self service till you are using an automated service that ten years ago would have been done by Doris on the till. If you go to MacDonald's and use a touchscreen to order then the same. not every job can be automated but enough can to finally see some productivity growth again.
Indeed. A farmer in 1800 would be adamant what wheat harvesting was manual, you needed people with scythes and manual threshers. What a combine harvester does is actually impossible. If you go a supermarket and use a self service till you are using an automated service that ten years ago would have been done by Doris on the till. If you go to MacDonald's and use a touchscreen to order then the same. not every job can be automated but enough can to finally see some productivity growth again.
Retail is being automated out of existence. It's not just the checkouts, its the fact that we don't need physical buildings with stuff in them, and hordes of low skilled people to loiter about.
Banking is being automated out of existence. I last needed a branch .... er .... 5 years ago?
Some surprising professions are being automated - I sure as hell wouldn't train as a radiologist today. Computers are much better than people at pattern matching, in a decade the Chinese will be cranking out modalities that do the diagnosis as well as take the picture.
Elderly care - use automation to actually target people who really need help, rather than checking everyone. No point in building the systems when you can get a bunch of min wage Poles to do it.
If you believe the bulls
t coming out of the motor industry, the career of "driving people and stuff around" will be over in a decade. I suspect we've got quite the opposite problem - a looming surfeit of low skilled workers.
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