Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 2)
Discussion
Figures from the John Hopkins tracker WITHOUT Hubei Province:
Confirmed cases: 20,076
Deaths: 218
Recovered: 10,962
In comparison to yesterday, 1,007 more confirmed cases, 21 more deaths and an increase of 334 in recovered patients.
Deaths/(Deaths+Recovered) is 1.95%, up from 1.8% yesterday and 1.7% the day before.
Confirmed cases: 20,076
Deaths: 218
Recovered: 10,962
In comparison to yesterday, 1,007 more confirmed cases, 21 more deaths and an increase of 334 in recovered patients.
Deaths/(Deaths+Recovered) is 1.95%, up from 1.8% yesterday and 1.7% the day before.
JonnyJustice said:
So what’s the actual death rate likely to be? Has anyone got a definitive answer?
Probably 3-4%.Seems to be IRO 2% for first 21 days of an outbreak then slowly rises again to around 3-4%.
source
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3B...
click death tab, 3rd graph down
JonnyJustice said:
So what’s the actual death rate likely to be? Has anyone got a definitive answer?
Professionals with far more experience and knowledge than any of us are assuming 1-2%. I’d work off that number. There are ways of getting bigger and smaller numbers depending on how you look at things - these would be best and worst case. Sensible middle ground is the 1-2%. The big question is will it be 1-2% of 100,000 people or 1,000,000,000 people.
JonnyJustice said:
So what’s the actual death rate likely to be? Has anyone got a definitive answer?
Preliminary estimates from at least 3 separate scientific studies are that just under 1% of people that become infected could die.These 3 studies are referenced in the WHO Sit Rep #30.
Deaths would be skewed heavily towards more elderly members of the population, as well as those with certain pre-existing health conditions.
It could still be lower than 1% or higher than 1%.
One reason it could be higher than 1% is if there were short sharp peaks of infections concentrated in specific areas that could completely overwhelm health services - similar to what happened in Wuhan.
It could be lower than 1% if, once scientists are able to conduct 'serological surveys' of the general population, they discover that many more people than currently anticipated have already been infected and only have very mild sickness or not even noticed at all.
'Reasonable worst case' estimates are that 40% - 80% of adults in a given population could become infected over the next 12-18 months.
If the ~1% infection fatality rate estimate turned out to be correct, and *if* 40% of UK adults get infected, then that would imply ~200k deaths over the next 12-18 months, mostly amongst more elderly people and/or people with other health conditions.
Interesting news about the case in Washington state with potentially significant implications.
Basically, genetic studies would appear to suggest the virus has been spreading in Washington State since mid-Jan.
“I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China.”
(A state of emergency was declared in Washington State yesterday.)
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/12339702713185034...
Basically, genetic studies would appear to suggest the virus has been spreading in Washington State since mid-Jan.
“I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China.”
(A state of emergency was declared in Washington State yesterday.)
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/12339702713185034...
Steven Riley again:
“China are probably 8 weeks ahead of most countries. If others [countries] choose policy objectives other than ongoing containment, eventually that may be viewed as a wise choice. Or it may not.”
“Initial interventions should be as strong as possible in the local context.
Objectives may have to change in the next 4 to 6 weeks.”
https://twitter.com/srileyidd/status/1234015167534...
“China are probably 8 weeks ahead of most countries. If others [countries] choose policy objectives other than ongoing containment, eventually that may be viewed as a wise choice. Or it may not.”
“Initial interventions should be as strong as possible in the local context.
Objectives may have to change in the next 4 to 6 weeks.”
https://twitter.com/srileyidd/status/1234015167534...
nffcforever said:
Interesting news about the case in Washington state with potentially significant implications.
Basically, genetic studies would appear to suggest the virus has been spreading in Washington State since mid-Jan.
“I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China.”
(A state of emergency was declared in Washington State yesterday.)
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/12339702713185034...
Charging for testing won’t have helped either! Basically, genetic studies would appear to suggest the virus has been spreading in Washington State since mid-Jan.
“I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China.”
(A state of emergency was declared in Washington State yesterday.)
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/12339702713185034...
hstewie said:People need to stop travelling and being fastidious with hygiene. It’s probably too late now, but such actions will help slow the spread. The poster who says people won’t self isolate due to work pressure ha sit spot on.
Economic consequences, of course, but they have already arrived and will continue.
We’d be better in the long run to just get on with it.
Once it gets into schools, if a teacher or child pass away, it will be bedlam. Govt need to take the initiative. Now. That will take the stigma away.
The west has sleepwalked into this
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