Lockdown Imminent

[FiF]

nonsequitur said:

mondeoman said:

FiF said:

sim72 said:

Jinx said:

popeyewhite said:

Probably not.
"New research shows gyms in England are successfully controlling COVID-19"

https://www.leisureopportunities.co.uk/news/COVID-...

Erm infection rates were measured from 25 July to 16 August. I really wish short term studies were ignored routinely rather than put all over the media.
What are the current numbers after schools went back?

ARI outbreaks involving COVID, Week 42 (5-11 October)

Schools and colleges 279
Care Homes 214
Workplaces excluding hospitality 178
"Other" 111
Hospitals 52
Pubs, restaurants and food 29
Prisons 6

Well judging by the Urban Fitness place I walked by the other night, if they're controlling Covid-19 then God only knows how. Heaving. No attempt at anything like SD, indoors, outside, in the car park, nearest open space, hordes of the buggers, usually in groups >6. Shrug.

So what does that tell you about SARS-Cov-2?

Or the 'Hordes of the Buggers'.

It might say there's no infection or next to nothing in the area where this gym is, which would be in agreement with published data.
It might also say that folks in that location aren't keeping to what rules currently exist as I understand them.
It might also suggest that also threatening to up the restrictions based on what's possibly happening with infections in a couple of areas at least 30 minutes drive away would be disproportionate and a waste of time.
It might also suggest that the gym and its clients don't give a toss.
Anything else someone might like to add to that lot?

[survivalist]

FiF said:

nonsequitur said:

mondeoman said:

FiF said:

sim72 said:

Jinx said:

popeyewhite said:

Probably not.
"New research shows gyms in England are successfully controlling COVID-19"

https://www.leisureopportunities.co.uk/news/COVID-...

Erm infection rates were measured from 25 July to 16 August. I really wish short term studies were ignored routinely rather than put all over the media.
What are the current numbers after schools went back?

ARI outbreaks involving COVID, Week 42 (5-11 October)

Schools and colleges 279
Care Homes 214
Workplaces excluding hospitality 178
"Other" 111
Hospitals 52
Pubs, restaurants and food 29
Prisons 6

Well judging by the Urban Fitness place I walked by the other night, if they're controlling Covid-19 then God only knows how. Heaving. No attempt at anything like SD, indoors, outside, in the car park, nearest open space, hordes of the buggers, usually in groups >6. Shrug.

So what does that tell you about SARS-Cov-2?

Or the 'Hordes of the Buggers'.

It might say there's no infection or next to nothing in the area where this gym is, which would be in agreement with published data.
It might also say that folks in that location aren't keeping to what rules currently exist as I understand them.
It might also suggest that also threatening to up the restrictions based on what's possibly happening with infections in a couple of areas at least 30 minutes drive away would be disproportionate and a waste of time.
It might also suggest that the gym and its clients don't give a toss.
Anything else someone might like to add to that lot?

It seems to me that the only conclusions are that the plan to simplify the guidance seems not to have been successful, based both on the above and the fact that there seemed to be full hour of discussion on it on BBC Breakfast this morning, where none of the 'experts' could agree on a whole range of scenarios.

Also seems that some people are following the laws and guidance and others aren't. Hard to tell what the split is though, as typically news organisations don't run stories on 'Jane from Northampton' putting on her mask before entering tesco.

For all the talk of following the science, the science i seems to be an excel spreadsheet and the guidance created on the back of a beer mat in the commons bar (before 10pm, of course ;-)

[Trophy Husband]

North Wales heavy with Mancpudlians and Livercunians again. Give us a break eh? Sort your own st out, then welcome to one and all?

[bodhi]

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

sim72 said:

ARI outbreaks involving COVID, Week 42 (5-11 October)

Schools and colleges 279
Care Homes 214
Workplaces excluding hospitality 178
"Other" 111
Hospitals 52
Pubs, restaurants and food 29
Prisons 6

Is that about 3% in hospitality?

Yep, which makes you wonder why they are such a target for politicians to make some random new rules up for. Speaking personally, the wife and I have been out to pubs and restaurants 2 or 3 times a week since they opened in July, leaving our details at various establishments between the North West and the Midlands, along with 4 days in Dundee during Fresher's Week, and no call from T&T so far. With the measures they've been forced to bring in, as onerous as they are, have made them one of the safest places to go. They should be congratulating the sector, not shutting it down.

[survivalist]

Trophy Husband said:

North Wales heavy with Mancpudlians and Livercunians again. Give us a break eh? Sort your own st out, then welcome to one and all?

Was always going to happen if you stop people from socialising on their doorstep but allow them to socialise somewhere else. I'm 20 mins on the train from London and am wondering if the trend of heading into town for a big night out will reverse itself. Be good for our local pubs if it does.

[Biker 1]

survivalist said:

Was always going to happen if you stop people from socialising on their doorstep but allow them to socialise somewhere else. I'm 20 mins on the train from London and am wondering if the trend of heading into town for a big night out will reverse itself. Be good for our local pubs if it does.

I'm about 1 hour from Central London by train & had thought about this too. So the bat-flu will then spread out from the city - exactly the opposite from what they want to happen. Logical conclusion?? Travel bans....
Are we EVER going to get out of this cyclical mess?

[b0rk]

bodhi said:

Yep, which makes you wonder why they are such a target for politicians to make some random new rules up for. Speaking personally, the wife and I have been out to pubs and restaurants 2 or 3 times a week since they opened in July, leaving our details at various establishments between the North West and the Midlands, along with 4 days in Dundee during Fresher's Week, and no call from T&T so far. With the measures they've been forced to bring in, as onerous as they are, have made them one of the safest places to go. They should be congratulating the sector, not shutting it down.

The four things higher in total outbreaks are sacrosanct to government so hospitality is the first thing that can be restricted. Can't stop kids going to school, can't stop outbreaks in hospitals and can't stop workplace outbreaks. The later being in locations where staff work closely together e.g. factories producing food and consumer goods. Shut the food processors down and you'll soon have riots when the supermarkets run out.

[anonymous-user]

The German courts have just overturned a curfew on a Berlin curfew for bars, on the basis there is insufficient evidence they're responsible for the spread to curb their freedom to operate.

From that stats produced in the UK, there is similar evidence that hospitality is not responsible for the spread (3-5% of outbreaks, from memory).

Its political, rather than scientific.

[Red 4]

Can someone please explain how this Tier 3 lockdown thing works in relation to pubs.

I'm in a Tier 3 region and I've just been to the town centre. Wetherspoons is open as are other pubs - apart from the ones who don't sell food.

For clarity, I didn't see anyone eating in Spoons. Plenty of drinking going on though. It wasn't busy but it was busy enough IYSWIM.

I've never thought of Wetherspoons as a restaurant.

[kingston12]

Red 4 said:

Can someone please explain how this Tier 3 lockdown thing works in relation to pubs.

I'm in a Tier 3 region and I've just been to the town centre. Wetherspoons is open as are other pubs - apart from the ones who don't sell food.

For clarity, I didn't see anyone eating in Spoons. Plenty of drinking going on though. It wasn't busy but it was busy enough IYSWIM.

I've never thought of Wetherspoons as a restaurant.

It’s only pubs without a food offer at all that have to close, and there’s not as many of those about as there used to be.

It’s really just some city centre bars and the odd pub that only sells crisps and pork scratchings behind the bar.

[kingston12]

survivalist said:

Was always going to happen if you stop people from socialising on their doorstep but allow them to socialise somewhere else. I'm 20 mins on the train from London and am wondering if the trend of heading into town for a big night out will reverse itself. Be good for our local pubs if it does.

I can see more people having big nights closer to home. I’m not sure that many people from central London are going to pour out into the suburbs for nights out though.

Even if they did, I’d expect the government would update the rules if there was evidence it was widespread.

[survivalist]

Biker 1 said:

survivalist said:

Was always going to happen if you stop people from socialising on their doorstep but allow them to socialise somewhere else. I'm 20 mins on the train from London and am wondering if the trend of heading into town for a big night out will reverse itself. Be good for our local pubs if it does.

I'm about 1 hour from Central London by train & had thought about this too. So the bat-flu will then spread out from the city - exactly the opposite from what they want to happen. Logical conclusion?? Travel bans....
Are we EVER going to get out of this cyclical mess?

I think that high covid areas (or whatever this weeks term is) are limited to certain areas of London, so treating every area the same was the first mistake.

I’m certainly not concerned about travelling into central London. Have a city break planned there for the kids over half term, perfect time to visit the zoo, Regent’s Park, Tower of London and go to some decent restaurants etc

Travel bans will be hard as they are completely unenforceable.

My personal opinion is that the current legislation will see almost everywhere in Tier 2 and 3 as covid ‘cases’ will continue to rise for some time.

Also, the more farcical the rules are the less people will adhere.

[Red 4]

kingston12 said:

Red 4 said:

Can someone please explain how this Tier 3 lockdown thing works in relation to pubs.

I'm in a Tier 3 region and I've just been to the town centre. Wetherspoons is open as are other pubs - apart from the ones who don't sell food.

For clarity, I didn't see anyone eating in Spoons. Plenty of drinking going on though. It wasn't busy but it was busy enough IYSWIM.

I've never thought of Wetherspoons as a restaurant.

It’s only pubs without a food offer at all that have to close, and there’s not as many of those about as there used to be.

It’s really just some city centre bars and the odd pub that only sells crisps and pork scratchings behind the bar.

Ah, OK. Thanks mate. Pubs are (generally) open then ! What's all the kerfuffle about with this lockdown malarkey then ? I know they have to close at 10 pm but the way some people go on it's like the end of the world.

[survivalist]

kingston12 said:

I can see more people having big nights closer to home. I’m not sure that many people from central London are going to pour out into the suburbs for nights out though.

Even if they did, I’d expect the government would update the rules if there was evidence it was widespread.

My gut feel is that the rule of six means that most young people will just claim they share a household.

I’m a bit older and was planning meeting some friends in London next week. Not they’re coming to me as they’re concerned about getting turned away in London. Only 4 of us though.

[survivalist]

Red 4 said:

kingston12 said:

Red 4 said:

Can someone please explain how this Tier 3 lockdown thing works in relation to pubs.

I'm in a Tier 3 region and I've just been to the town centre. Wetherspoons is open as are other pubs - apart from the ones who don't sell food.

For clarity, I didn't see anyone eating in Spoons. Plenty of drinking going on though. It wasn't busy but it was busy enough IYSWIM.

I've never thought of Wetherspoons as a restaurant.

It’s only pubs without a food offer at all that have to close, and there’s not as many of those about as there used to be.

It’s really just some city centre bars and the odd pub that only sells crisps and pork scratchings behind the bar.

Ah, OK. Thanks mate. Pubs are (generally) open then ! What's all the kerfuffle about with this lockdown malarkey then ? I know they have to close at 10 pm but the way some people go on it's like the end of the world.

Well, in theory you can only go to the pub with your household, not to meet friends. Also you need to be having a substantive meal. Although all those people drinking are probably just waiting for it to be delivered to their table

[Red 4]

survivalist said:

Red 4 said:

kingston12 said:

Red 4 said:

Can someone please explain how this Tier 3 lockdown thing works in relation to pubs.

I'm in a Tier 3 region and I've just been to the town centre. Wetherspoons is open as are other pubs - apart from the ones who don't sell food.

For clarity, I didn't see anyone eating in Spoons. Plenty of drinking going on though. It wasn't busy but it was busy enough IYSWIM.

I've never thought of Wetherspoons as a restaurant.

It’s only pubs without a food offer at all that have to close, and there’s not as many of those about as there used to be.

It’s really just some city centre bars and the odd pub that only sells crisps and pork scratchings behind the bar.

Ah, OK. Thanks mate. Pubs are (generally) open then ! What's all the kerfuffle about with this lockdown malarkey then ? I know they have to close at 10 pm but the way some people go on it's like the end of the world.

Well, in theory you can only go to the pub with your household, not to meet friends. Also you need to be having a substantive meal. Although all those people drinking are probably just waiting for it to be delivered to their table

It's a massive menu in Spoons. It takes time to read it and decide what you want. Thirsty work !

[leef44]

RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:

The German courts have just overturned a curfew on a Berlin curfew for bars, on the basis there is insufficient evidence they're responsible for the spread to curb their freedom to operate.

From that stats produced in the UK, there is similar evidence that hospitality is not responsible for the spread (3-5% of outbreaks, from memory).

Its political, rather than scientific.

It's politics at its worst.

We all know that the lockdown is ineffective. You can't lockdown indefinitely due to economic crash so it is temporary and then you re-open stuff. Everyone goes out and then you are back to the same as before except more businesses gone under.

Politicians should take a longer term vision. Look ahead 18 months because this is how long this virus will go on before vaccination takes effect.

So decisions should be based on what is sustainable for 18 months. Lockdowns are not sustainable for that long so don't go down that route.

[MellowshipSlinky]

Pffft...
Could’ve picked better soup.

[popeyewhite]

leef44 said:

Politicians should take a longer term vision. .

No politician is brave enough. In fact Boris standing up to SAGE and resisting a full lockdown is quite surprising.

[Louis Balfour]

popeyewhite said:

leef44 said:

Politicians should take a longer term vision. .

No politician is brave enough. In fact Boris standing up to SAGE and resisting a full lockdown is quite surprising.

Yes it is. Which means he is up to something.