Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 5)
Discussion
B'stard Child said:
Have we reached Peak Covid 19 on PH?
Possibly not but we took a day longer to finish Vol 4 and in the first few days it looked like it would be done in 4
A propos of that observation, here's a related curve, also full of scienciness:| Vol # | Start Date | End Date | Days | Weeks | Other Threads |
| Vol 5 | 28/03/2020 | - | |||
| Vol 4 | 20/03/2020 | 28/03/2020 | 8 | 1 | 32 |
| Vol 3 | 13/03/2020 | 20/03/2020 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| Vol 2 | 01/03/2020 | 13/03/2020 | 12 | 2 | 6 |
| Vol 1 | 18/01/2020 | 01/03/2020 | 43 | 6 | 1 |
Possibly not but we took a day longer to finish Vol 4 and in the first few days it looked like it would be done in 4
From this excellent article: https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of...
Vanden Saab said:
Stay in Bed Instead said:
Thesprucegoose said:
Stay in Bed Instead said:
There appears to have been a subtle move in media reporting over the past week.
Originally with was died with Caronavirus (and pre existing conditions), to Caronavirus deaths.
That Caron is deadly.Originally with was died with Caronavirus (and pre existing conditions), to Caronavirus deaths.
AJL308 said:
I
So, in what percentage of these deaths is the virus which they are infected with actually an operating cause of the death and how "substantial" is it? Without knowing that then any figures as to deaths are completely and utterly meaningless, surely?
You raise a very pertinent point So, in what percentage of these deaths is the virus which they are infected with actually an operating cause of the death and how "substantial" is it? Without knowing that then any figures as to deaths are completely and utterly meaningless, surely?
Edited by AJL308 on Saturday 28th March 11:49
I was discussing this with my wife ( a nurse ) this morning and it’s rather fascinating
If CV19 is just accelerating deaths amongst people who were going to die imminently anyway it’s one thing
If CV19 is killing lots of otherwise healthy people with no other conditions it’s very different
My discussion this morning got us nowhere really because really as you are saying it’s totally meaningless “deaths with CV19” is way too blunt.
If someone has terminal cancer and is dying the fact that after death they detect CV19 it doesn’t really help us
I think the issue is ensuring there is sufficient capacity to treat those that are ill ( with everything) and ensuring the health service isn’t overwhelmed because then people will start dying needlessly from other conditions not related to CV19
Escapegoat said:
A propos of that observation, here's a related curve, also full of scienciness:
From this excellent article: https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of...
😂From this excellent article: https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of...
Escapegoat said:
A propos of that observation, here's a related curve, also full of scienciness:
From this excellent article: https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of...
Great link. Thank you.From this excellent article: https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of...
B'stard Child said:
Have we reached Peak Covid 19 on PH?
Possibly not but we took a day longer to finish Vol 4 and in the first few days it looked like it would be done in 4
| Vol # | Start Date | End Date | Days | Weeks | Other Threads |
| Vol 5 | 28/03/2020 | - | |||
| Vol 4 | 20/03/2020 | 28/03/2020 | 8 | 1 | 32 |
| Vol 3 | 13/03/2020 | 20/03/2020 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| Vol 2 | 01/03/2020 | 13/03/2020 | 12 | 2 | 6 |
| Vol 1 | 18/01/2020 | 01/03/2020 | 43 | 6 | 1 |
Possibly not but we took a day longer to finish Vol 4 and in the first few days it looked like it would be done in 4
ChocolateFrog said:
Fly tipping does seem to be getting worse. A load had been dumped near me obviously from a moving car or van as every bag had split open and slid a couple of meters, all right in the middle of the road for 4 or 500m, glass everywhere, it was a total mess.
Maybe it’s locals making barricades? I saw what looked like a roadblock on my run the other day but it was all tiles and bits of bathroom dumped illegally
Earthdweller said:
AJL308 said:
I
So, in what percentage of these deaths is the virus which they are infected with actually an operating cause of the death and how "substantial" is it? Without knowing that then any figures as to deaths are completely and utterly meaningless, surely?
You raise a very pertinent point So, in what percentage of these deaths is the virus which they are infected with actually an operating cause of the death and how "substantial" is it? Without knowing that then any figures as to deaths are completely and utterly meaningless, surely?
Edited by AJL308 on Saturday 28th March 11:49
I was discussing this with my wife ( a nurse ) this morning and it’s rather fascinating
If CV19 is just accelerating deaths amongst people who were going to die imminently anyway it’s one thing
If CV19 is killing lots of otherwise healthy people with no other conditions it’s very different
My discussion this morning got us nowhere really because really as you are saying it’s totally meaningless “deaths with CV19” is way too blunt.
If someone has terminal cancer and is dying the fact that after death they detect CV19 it doesn’t really help us
I think the issue is ensuring there is sufficient capacity to treat those that are ill ( with everything) and ensuring the health service isn’t overwhelmed because then people will start dying needlessly from other conditions not related to CV19
There seems to be a wish, a desire, maybe a need, for some people who see themselves as 20-50 and not unhealthy, to think CV19's not really hazardous to them. A surprising number (to me anyway) of these are sociopathic enough to want their pension/life-style to take priority over the life-days lost by the people mentioned above.
Meanwhile, in other news, an explanation of the science behind Sweden's response: https://theconversation.com/sweden-under-fire-for-...
Saweep said:
I live slap bang in the middle of Birmingham City centre and from my windows I can see a good part of the city.
It's a total ghost town. There is nobody about.
My building is mostly empty too as I presume people have run to parents etc in other parts of the country.
I've been going for a walk for an hour through the city the last few days and haven't seen either a single policeman or anyone breaking the "rules".
There's no mass disobedience going on here. "locking the city down" with roadblocks etc would just be a waste of police resources as it's not needed.
I had an appointment to give blood on Tuesday night (booked from previous visit 16 weeks earlier) drove into my city centre with very little traffic about but it hit me when I parked in the John Lewis car park, main one in the city and level 0 had me and two other cars on it, upstairs where you have to walk to cross over into the centre there was not one soul or car.It's a total ghost town. There is nobody about.
My building is mostly empty too as I presume people have run to parents etc in other parts of the country.
I've been going for a walk for an hour through the city the last few days and haven't seen either a single policeman or anyone breaking the "rules".
There's no mass disobedience going on here. "locking the city down" with roadblocks etc would just be a waste of police resources as it's not needed.
Walking through the city the odd person here and there but very few and far between, reminded me of the start of ‘21 days later’.
dotty said:
832 deaths in Spain in the last 24hrs. Tragic.
i feel a connection to Spain because of all the happy times i have had their, i am sure many feel the same, i hope once we have our U.K house in order we can ship surplus equipment and other supplies to Spain to help them out.Escapegoat said:
A propos of that observation, here's a related curve, also full of scienciness:
From this excellent article: https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of...
That is brilliant! From this excellent article: https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of...
B'stard Child said:
Taylor James said:
Vanden Saab said:
Stay in Bed Instead said:
Thesprucegoose said:
Stay in Bed Instead said:
There appears to have been a subtle move in media reporting over the past week.
Originally with was died with Caronavirus (and pre existing conditions), to Caronavirus deaths.
That Caron is deadly.Originally with was died with Caronavirus (and pre existing conditions), to Caronavirus deaths.
Sort of updated.
Escapegoat said:
Isn't it clear. Forget sophistry: CV19 shortens a lot of lives. An 80yr old might not live to die of a stroke at 90. Kids with recent cancer therapy may die now rather than live much longer lives. Adults with severe asthma may also die. Etc.
There seems to be a wish, a desire, maybe a need, for some people who see themselves as 20-50 and not unhealthy, to think CV19's not really hazardous to them. A surprising number (to me anyway) of these are sociopathic enough to want their pension/life-style to take priority over the life-days lost by the people mentioned above.
Meanwhile, in other news, an explanation of the science behind Sweden's response: https://theconversation.com/sweden-under-fire-for-...
Interesting article : There seems to be a wish, a desire, maybe a need, for some people who see themselves as 20-50 and not unhealthy, to think CV19's not really hazardous to them. A surprising number (to me anyway) of these are sociopathic enough to want their pension/life-style to take priority over the life-days lost by the people mentioned above.
Meanwhile, in other news, an explanation of the science behind Sweden's response: https://theconversation.com/sweden-under-fire-for-...
The little reliable data on COVID-19 in Sweden concerns hospital admissions and fatalities. This latter can be used to get a “poor man’s estimate” of community transmission, providing approximately how many fatalities occur among those infected. But with a two-week lag between diagnosis and death, this a very blunt instrument with which to guide decision making.
B'stard Child said:
Have we reached Peak Covid 19 on PH?
Possibly not but we took a day longer to finish Vol 4 and in the first few days it looked like it would be done in 4
Is that Everest?| Vol # | Start Date | End Date | Days | Weeks | Other Threads |
| Vol 5 | 28/03/2020 | - | |||
| Vol 4 | 20/03/2020 | 28/03/2020 | 8 | 1 | 32 |
| Vol 3 | 13/03/2020 | 20/03/2020 | 7 | 1 | 9 |
| Vol 2 | 01/03/2020 | 13/03/2020 | 12 | 2 | 6 |
| Vol 1 | 18/01/2020 | 01/03/2020 | 43 | 6 | 1 |
Possibly not but we took a day longer to finish Vol 4 and in the first few days it looked like it would be done in 4
Escapegoat said:
Earthdweller said:
AJL308 said:
I
So, in what percentage of these deaths is the virus which they are infected with actually an operating cause of the death and how "substantial" is it? Without knowing that then any figures as to deaths are completely and utterly meaningless, surely?
You raise a very pertinent point So, in what percentage of these deaths is the virus which they are infected with actually an operating cause of the death and how "substantial" is it? Without knowing that then any figures as to deaths are completely and utterly meaningless, surely?
Edited by AJL308 on Saturday 28th March 11:49
I was discussing this with my wife ( a nurse ) this morning and it’s rather fascinating
If CV19 is just accelerating deaths amongst people who were going to die imminently anyway it’s one thing
If CV19 is killing lots of otherwise healthy people with no other conditions it’s very different
My discussion this morning got us nowhere really because really as you are saying it’s totally meaningless “deaths with CV19” is way too blunt.
If someone has terminal cancer and is dying the fact that after death they detect CV19 it doesn’t really help us
I think the issue is ensuring there is sufficient capacity to treat those that are ill ( with everything) and ensuring the health service isn’t overwhelmed because then people will start dying needlessly from other conditions not related to CV19
There seems to be a wish, a desire, maybe a need, for some people who see themselves as 20-50 and not unhealthy, to think CV19's not really hazardous to them. A surprising number (to me anyway) of these are sociopathic enough to want their pension/life-style to take priority over the life-days lost by the people mentioned above.
Meanwhile, in other news, an explanation of the science behind Sweden's response: https://theconversation.com/sweden-under-fire-for-...
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