Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 5)

[zarjaz_]

hyphen said:

Well they banned outdoor sports today in Paris during the hours of 10am-7pm so are the French not distancing enough?

It's more than that.

April 7 (GMT)
11059 new cases and 1417 new deaths in France
April 6 (GMT)
5171 new cases and 833 new deaths in France
April 5 (GMT)
2886 new cases and 518 new deaths in France
April 4 (GMT)
7788 new cases and 1053 new deaths in France
April 3 (GMT)
23060 new cases and 1120 new deaths in France

These massive fluctuations, particularly in case numbers, must have some other explanation.

If they've really jumped from 2,000 cases to 11,000 cases in 2 days then something is very wrong.

[anonymous-user]

zarjaz_ said:

It's more than that.

April 7 (GMT)
11059 new cases and 1417 new deaths in France
April 6 (GMT)
5171 new cases and 833 new deaths in France
April 5 (GMT)
2886 new cases and 518 new deaths in France
April 4 (GMT)
7788 new cases and 1053 new deaths in France
April 3 (GMT)
23060 new cases and 1120 new deaths in France

These massive fluctuations, particularly in case numbers, must have some other explanation.

If they've really jumped from 2,000 cases to 11,000 cases in 2 days then something is very wrong.

Guess it's to do with counting nursing home deaths. UK 'might' see a similar jump when we start counting them too. There are some hints Italy is under-counting stuff like this based on their 'ons' regional data.

Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 7th April 20:13

[zarjaz_]

Sambucket said:

Guess it's to do with counting nursing home deaths. UK 'might' see a similar jump when we start counting them too. There are some hints Italy is under-counting stuff like this based on their 'ons' regional data.

Edited by Sambucket on Tuesday 7th April 20:13

Deaths I could understand but cases?

[Amateurish]

Yes, France was 597 hospital deaths today plus a backlog of reported care home deaths

[anonymous-user]

zarjaz_ said:

Deaths I could understand but cases?

Check out the number of cases for April 3rd. I wouldn't put too much stock in daily cases. The trend maybe.

[zarjaz_]

Sambucket said:

Check out the number of cases for April 3rd. I wouldn't put too much stock in daily cases. The trend maybe.

Yeah there was some sort of explanation for April 3rd, along the lines of back-counting some missed cases. I can only guess that that’s still going on.

[RTB]

Sambucket said:

Check out the number of cases for April 3rd. I wouldn't put too much stock in daily cases. The trend maybe.

Exactly, people are treating the daily cases and deaths like some sort of live score.

[dmahon]

RTB said:

hotchy said:

Wonder when we find out how long the lockdown will be extended?

I think they've probably got another couple of 3 week extensions to go at yet before they are going to start having real problems with compliance. Not sure what they will do after that....

We're essentially trapped in a room with a big savage dog and we've managed to get it pinned down. We're currently weighing up how likely it is that we'll have time to let go and run to the door before the dog rips our throat out.

Lockdown with the wife not going too well then?

[SeeFive]

ALawson said:

SeeFive said:

I think my exercise is sorted for the next 2 days or so. Look at the state of this! Hasn’t been touched since an enforced early end to the boating season. It has really suffered in the winter shade as I have been too busy to even take a look around it let alone do anything to it. Sorry for crap picture. Picture was reduced to meet upload size restrictions.

PS, Before anyone kicks off, I don’t have to travel to work on it. It is at the bottom of my garden.

Port Solent? You still need to speak to the lock keeper if the tide is out.

Sorry for the delay, just got back inside. Indeed it is PS. If I do what I think you are suggesting, we may have a few hundred other upset boat owners with spilled gin and tonics.

I guess I was a bit optimistic thinking 2 days. About 8 hours later and I have only managed to wash the thing, scrub non slip decks, and machine polish (DA - sloooow) the starboard side, stern and some of the bow topsides. I am writing this from a very hot bath with a very cold beer and backache. It is a bugger to polish off the pontoon, almost everything is too low holding the DA at arms length, squatting down most of the time. I can get a complete 2 stage done on a car in about 4 hours normally, it is a surprisingly large surface area to do on such a little tub. I need to order some more compound.

Anyway, back to the plot, that is my Covid 19 exercise sorted for quite a few more days it seems. #notgoingout

[zarjaz_]

RTB said:

Exactly, people are treating the daily cases and deaths like some sort of live score.

In fairness that’s because that is the way it is being pushed at us by both government and media.

[K77 CTR]

lampchair said:

catweasle said:

Another little personal anecdotal update if that's ok:

For the 2nd day now wife's hospital has been relatively under control and not struggling to find places for patients as they were last week......................as stated before this could just be the lull before the storm and she thinks hers is a bit in front of most other areas so fingers X'd this is the peak and soon things start to ease everywhere else.

Do we have the same wife?

She’s busy but not mega.

Our hospital is coping amazingly well and I am pretty shocked it's not much worse. We currently have less than 200 patients with it and less than 30 in critical care beds. Our wards are virtually empty with many wards closed due to no patients. ED staff are complaining how quiet it has been. Fingers crossed this is how it stays and we don't see a sudden surge.

[Big Rig]

drdino said:

Chinook just landed and took off again opposite Excel.

They’re doing familiarisation circuits in prep for medevacs I’m told.

Edited by Big Rig on Tuesday 7th April 21:05

[Vanden Saab]

Russian death figures are looking interesting at 58 as are the Chinese ones. The Chinese and Russians closed their joint border yesterday after 56 Chinese workers returning from Russia tested positive for the virus...

[johnwilliams77]

Vanden Saab said:

Russian death figures are looking interesting at 58 as are the Chinese ones. The Chinese and Russians closed their joint border yesterday after 56 Chinese workers returning from Russia tested positive for the virus...

Neither of those countries can be trusted.

[zarjaz_]

johnwilliams77 said:

Neither of those countries can be trusted.

Very true.

I do tire of the BBC and other news organisations parroting the Chinese figures as if they are even remotely believable. They never even qualify them with "if the figures are accurate" or anything like that. Just repeated as verified fact.

[WindyCommon]

I've posted this data (from the Italian NHS equivalent) a few times during recent weeks. It's now in a format that is google-translatable which makes it easier for non-Italian speakers.

The sample size is now up to 1,290 deaths. Only 42 (3.3%) had no pre-existing conditions from the list considered.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-...

[ALawson]

SeeFive said:

Sorry for the delay, just got back inside. Indeed it is PS. If I do what I think you are suggesting, we may have a few hundred other upset boat owners with spilled gin and tonics.

I guess I was a bit optimistic thinking 2 days. About 8 hours later and I have only managed to wash the thing, scrub non slip decks, and machine polish (DA - sloooow) the starboard side, stern and some of the bow topsides. I am writing this from a very hot bath with a very cold beer and backache. It is a bugger to polish off the pontoon, almost everything is too low holding the DA at arms length, squatting down most of the time. I can get a complete 2 stage done on a car in about 4 hours normally, it is a surprisingly large surface area to do on such a little tub. I need to order some more compound.

Anyway, back to the plot, that is my Covid 19 exercise sorted for quite a few more days it seems. #notgoingout

We used to have a 38ft yacht at PS, used to polish top sides from dingy, always fun stopping yourself pushing yourself away. Been sold now 5 years ago. At least you haven't got meters of teak to clean or replace!

[PanicBuyingBogRoll]

Robertj21a said:

Thesprucegoose said:

lampchair said:

They were quite clear that a target had been set for manufacturers to provide that number. ‘Target’ was specifically used.

Whats the point on setting an unattainable 'target'. Anyway either way they come away clean, if they don't test enough or do.

How do you know it's unattainable ?

Always set targets higher that what you actually want.

[Burwood]

zarjaz_ said:

johnwilliams77 said:

Neither of those countries can be trusted.

Very true.

I do tire of the BBC and other news organisations parroting the Chinese figures as if they are even remotely believable. They never even qualify them with "if the figures are accurate" or anything like that. Just repeated as verified fact.

It’s bullst. I have ties with many in China who use vpn I might add to evade the all seeing eye and they say it’s very bad and utter bks what is being beamed out to the world.

[The Ferret]

Burwood said:

It’s bullst. I have ties with many in China who use vpn I might add to evade the all seeing eye and they say it’s very bad and utter bks what is being beamed out to the world.

I don’t doubt it.

Unfortunately they’ve fu*cked the rest of the world over, and are still continuing to do so.

Being ahead of us in terms of virus timescale, they’re the ones we should be learning from in terms of what to expect next. There’s all kinds of reports out there regarding reinfections and a huge amount of data we could be learning from, but alas we’re largely in the dark due to their BS.