Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 5)
Discussion
We are seeing a lot of numbers and statistics in the news at the moment but I think it's the stories with the human element that possibly convey the importance of being vigilant more than graphs. Thinking of the bus driver today leaving behind his wife and kid. Stuff like that is what's going to reach out more to the public.
ALawson said:
SeeFive said:
Sorry for the delay, just got back inside. Indeed it is PS. If I do what I think you are suggesting, we may have a few hundred other upset boat owners with spilled gin and tonics.
I guess I was a bit optimistic thinking 2 days. About 8 hours later and I have only managed to wash the thing, scrub non slip decks, and machine polish (DA - sloooow) the starboard side, stern and some of the bow topsides. I am writing this from a very hot bath with a very cold beer and backache. It is a bugger to polish off the pontoon, almost everything is too low holding the DA at arms length, squatting down most of the time. I can get a complete 2 stage done on a car in about 4 hours normally, it is a surprisingly large surface area to do on such a little tub. I need to order some more compound.
Anyway, back to the plot, that is my Covid 19 exercise sorted for quite a few more days it seems. #notgoingout
We used to have a 38ft yacht at PS, used to polish top sides from dingy, always fun stopping yourself pushing yourself away. Been sold now 5 years ago. At least you haven't got meters of teak to clean or replace! I guess I was a bit optimistic thinking 2 days. About 8 hours later and I have only managed to wash the thing, scrub non slip decks, and machine polish (DA - sloooow) the starboard side, stern and some of the bow topsides. I am writing this from a very hot bath with a very cold beer and backache. It is a bugger to polish off the pontoon, almost everything is too low holding the DA at arms length, squatting down most of the time. I can get a complete 2 stage done on a car in about 4 hours normally, it is a surprisingly large surface area to do on such a little tub. I need to order some more compound.
Anyway, back to the plot, that is my Covid 19 exercise sorted for quite a few more days it seems. #notgoingout
Jimbeaux said:
The US, beginning in New York, wants to roll out anti body testing to determine who can go back to work. They want to do this on a very large scale soon. Senator Rand Paul has tested out on the antibodies and is volunteering at the hospital (he is an MD).
Everyone wants to do that, the problem is the test isn't reliable.foxbody-87 said:
We are seeing a lot of numbers and statistics in the news at the moment but I think it's the stories with the human element that possibly convey the importance of being vigilant more than graphs. Thinking of the bus driver today leaving behind his wife and kid. Stuff like that is what's going to reach out more to the public.
Agreed, it's accounts like the doctor who has never certified so many deaths in a single tour of duty before, and finds himself most affected by the little things, a book with a bookmark in it, a watch still ticking, an unanswered text from family on a phone.Then the guy who was in ICU, now released to home, who recalls the guy in the next bed calling out for his family for two hours, gradually getting fainter, then silence.
Realising that what the staff are doing for you is not a cure but simply caring for you so you either recover and go out the front door to home, or nursing you out the back door as painlessly as possible.
Personally, if you don't find those accounts moving there's something not wired correctly.
WindyCommon said:
I've posted this data (from the Italian NHS equivalent) a few times during recent weeks. It's now in a format that is google-translatable which makes it easier for non-Italian speakers.
The sample size is now up to 1,290 deaths. Only 42 (3.3%) had no pre-existing conditions from the list considered.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-...
Another interesting link Windy - thanks. The sample size is now up to 1,290 deaths. Only 42 (3.3%) had no pre-existing conditions from the list considered.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/sars-cov-...
Following on from the point about the biggest risk catagories, there are a few articles appearing in the Australian press regarding the possible choice for what this all means in terms of the way forward. Ignoring the incendiary title, the one I have linked below is typical which really does summarise the three options;
Option 1 : Eliminate the virus - requires a much, much stricter lockdown than we currently have, probably for around three months. All businesses close. No one leaves their neighborhood. The virus will then burn out. After the lockdown the borders would also need to stay closed to prevent reinfection until a vaccine becomes available.
Option 2 : Stay in the current (or modified) version of the lockdown until a vaccine is available - this is likely to take 18 months.
Option 3 : Go for herd immunity whilst protecting the most vulnerable.
I think some who post here think we are currently going for option 1. In reality our lockdown is just about buying time to scale up the healthcare capacity. As a society we are soon going to need to pick from one of these three options.
https://www.seniorsnews.com.au/news/wicked-choice-...
Big Rig said:
They’re doing familiarisation circuits in prep for medevacs I’m told.
Interesting. I live near the Yorkshire Air Ambulance base (which is now only operating one helicopter after staff have been redeployed to their hospitals to deal with the crisis) and there was what I thought was a handful of Chinooks on Monday landing - but I guess it could have been one doing circuits. Edited by Big Rig on Tuesday 7th April 21:05
CardinalBlue said:
Big Rig said:
They’re doing familiarisation circuits in prep for medevacs I’m told.
Interesting. I live near the Yorkshire Air Ambulance base (which is now only operating one helicopter after staff have been redeployed to their hospitals to deal with the crisis) and there was what I thought was a handful of Chinooks on Monday landing - but I guess it could have been one doing circuits. Edited by Big Rig on Tuesday 7th April 21:05
Gareth1974 said:
CardinalBlue said:
Big Rig said:
They’re doing familiarisation circuits in prep for medevacs I’m told.
Interesting. I live near the Yorkshire Air Ambulance base (which is now only operating one helicopter after staff have been redeployed to their hospitals to deal with the crisis) and there was what I thought was a handful of Chinooks on Monday landing - but I guess it could have been one doing circuits. Edited by Big Rig on Tuesday 7th April 21:05
Blimmin things are everywhere
Trump, a man who continued to downplay the crisis including after WHO declared it a pandemic has now said the USA will stop giving WHO money because they didn’t make the call on the pandemic early enough. This is a man whose stupidity knows no bounds and continues to surprise.
President Trump said:
They missed the call. They could’ve called it months earlier.”
markyb_lcy said:
Trump, a man who continued to downplay the crisis including after WHO declared it a pandemic has now said the USA will stop giving WHO money because they didn’t make the call on the pandemic early enough. This is a man whose stupidity knows no bounds and continues to surprise.
Sure, he's an idiotic hypocrit, but on the single point made here about the WHO, he's not wrong.President Trump said:
They missed the call. They could’ve called it months earlier.”
Edited by TheJimi on Wednesday 8th April 00:20
TheJimi said:
markyb_lcy said:
Trump, a man who continued to downplay the crisis including after WHO declared it a pandemic has now said the USA will stop giving WHO money because they didn’t make the call on the pandemic early enough. This is a man whose stupidity knows no bounds and continues to surprise.
Sure, he's an idiotic hypocrit, but on the single point made here about the WHO, he's not wrong.President Trump said:
They missed the call. They could’ve called it months earlier.”
Edited by TheJimi on Wednesday 8th April 00:20
Do you think he is right to pull US funding?
markyb_lcy said:
That they could have called it earlier? How so? It can only be called a pandemic when it demonstrably is one.
Do you think he is right to pull US funding?
He hasn't pulled the funding. I don't think he will either. He says he is "going to look at it". Which is Trump's typical way of applying leverage.Do you think he is right to pull US funding?
On the WHO, they tiptoed around China in the early stages of the outbreak. When they eventually got access to Wuhan, they were granted very limited access. And they were quite meek in accepting what the Chinese government were prepared to offer in terms of access.
TTmonkey said:
France. It’s going mental there. Bigger numbers than Italy. 1417 in a day. That’s more than 600 more than yesterday.
I could be very wrong here, but didn’t they add 800 or more cases to the daily count of people who had died in care homes and previously been excluded, and then mention it as an anomaly TTmonkey said:
France. It’s going mental there. Bigger numbers than Italy. 1417 in a day. That’s more than 600 more than yesterday.
I haven’t researched the bare statistics myself further than reading this report but this article suggests the headline figure (while disturbingly high) may perhaps be less disturbing than first imagined.Personally I’d be cautious in my approach to all official national statistics since the methodology will vary from country to country and may well be open to abuse.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52202705
Been thinking about this lockdown thing and I reckon it's going to be toughened, then reduced and then extended. I think when you take the whole picture and ask 'is it realistic we'll be set free on April 13th?' I think the answer will be absolutely not.
Hear me out....
We've got the Nightingale hospitals setting up this week and next...
We've got businesses able to furlough staff for 3 months with room for extension.
We've got over 70's self isolating for 12 weeks. (3 weeks in now?)
We've got NHS volunteers setting up to deliver things to the vulnerable or isolating
All NHS leave has been cancelled and people are coming out of retirement.
The FCO guidance has been extended and travel isn't advised unless essential.
Most schools have been closed.
It's likely to get much, much worse. Half of hospital beds aren't filled, let alone the many thousands they're creating...
What we've had so far:
March 16th - Boris announces people should work from home where possible and closes XXX
March 23rd - Boris announces UK 'lockdown' and toughens what we can/cannot do for a period of 3 weeks.
Today is April 8th. Nearly 2 weeks after the UK 'locked down' and numbers are not improving. They've probably slowed compared to where we would be if we hadn't 'locked down' but who knows...
So, I think that on;
April 13th - We must be nearing or at the start of the final peak here - therefore I reckon they'll go tough to ensure the NHS doesn't have to deal with unnecessary distractions, keep roads and skies clear for emergencies and supplies movement. They'll likely close construction sites and whatever is left and go further with business restrictions.
April 27th - We should have start to see new numbers decrease from the first lock down. Deaths will still be rising but new infections shouldn't be as high. We should be testing more by now and therefore we can reduce the restrictions. We'll go back to the restrictions we had announced on March 23rd. They'll renew for another 3 weeks and then re-review.
During this time, deaths will be high but new infections should be going down. Beds are starting to free up etc...
May 11 - Numbers are starting to dramatically fall due to the tough 2 weeks mid April. Other EU countries are already getting back to normal. Talk will start about gatherings and sports and other things. But the government will want to avoid mass gatherings. Therefore I can see them saying, everyone back to work where you can BUT large events such as festivals, concerts and football matches are not to resume yet.
June 1st - UK goes back to normal. I know of planning that's being done to resume big events from mid June so we can't be that far off.
I still don't quite know how to process the fact that a family friend is on a ventilator and is most likely going to die this week.
I feel desperately sorry for the lady who's husband passed away from this. She must feel so guilty for passing it on and surviving.
My friend from work who had this virus is still not 100% after nearly 3 weeks of being symptom free. He says his breathing and energy levels are just not what whey used to be.
My sisters boyfriend is now confirmed too. 25 year old guy, very fit and healthy, black (as they say that can make a difference). He caught it from his mum who's a nurse who had symptoms and self isolated.. He's been sleeping nearly 20 hours a day since Saturday. I feel bad for them. He's likely to be fine but if his sister gets it she will die as she's shielding.
Thankfully, I still have a job and so does my wife. No threat of furlough just yet... We're so far healthy.
Can't wait for this to be over. Hopefully without having lost anyone else.
Hear me out....
We've got the Nightingale hospitals setting up this week and next...
We've got businesses able to furlough staff for 3 months with room for extension.
We've got over 70's self isolating for 12 weeks. (3 weeks in now?)
We've got NHS volunteers setting up to deliver things to the vulnerable or isolating
All NHS leave has been cancelled and people are coming out of retirement.
The FCO guidance has been extended and travel isn't advised unless essential.
Most schools have been closed.
It's likely to get much, much worse. Half of hospital beds aren't filled, let alone the many thousands they're creating...
What we've had so far:
March 16th - Boris announces people should work from home where possible and closes XXX
March 23rd - Boris announces UK 'lockdown' and toughens what we can/cannot do for a period of 3 weeks.
Today is April 8th. Nearly 2 weeks after the UK 'locked down' and numbers are not improving. They've probably slowed compared to where we would be if we hadn't 'locked down' but who knows...
So, I think that on;
April 13th - We must be nearing or at the start of the final peak here - therefore I reckon they'll go tough to ensure the NHS doesn't have to deal with unnecessary distractions, keep roads and skies clear for emergencies and supplies movement. They'll likely close construction sites and whatever is left and go further with business restrictions.
April 27th - We should have start to see new numbers decrease from the first lock down. Deaths will still be rising but new infections shouldn't be as high. We should be testing more by now and therefore we can reduce the restrictions. We'll go back to the restrictions we had announced on March 23rd. They'll renew for another 3 weeks and then re-review.
During this time, deaths will be high but new infections should be going down. Beds are starting to free up etc...
May 11 - Numbers are starting to dramatically fall due to the tough 2 weeks mid April. Other EU countries are already getting back to normal. Talk will start about gatherings and sports and other things. But the government will want to avoid mass gatherings. Therefore I can see them saying, everyone back to work where you can BUT large events such as festivals, concerts and football matches are not to resume yet.
June 1st - UK goes back to normal. I know of planning that's being done to resume big events from mid June so we can't be that far off.
I still don't quite know how to process the fact that a family friend is on a ventilator and is most likely going to die this week.
I feel desperately sorry for the lady who's husband passed away from this. She must feel so guilty for passing it on and surviving.
My friend from work who had this virus is still not 100% after nearly 3 weeks of being symptom free. He says his breathing and energy levels are just not what whey used to be.
My sisters boyfriend is now confirmed too. 25 year old guy, very fit and healthy, black (as they say that can make a difference). He caught it from his mum who's a nurse who had symptoms and self isolated.. He's been sleeping nearly 20 hours a day since Saturday. I feel bad for them. He's likely to be fine but if his sister gets it she will die as she's shielding.
Thankfully, I still have a job and so does my wife. No threat of furlough just yet... We're so far healthy.
Can't wait for this to be over. Hopefully without having lost anyone else.
Edited by ashleyman on Wednesday 8th April 00:54
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