Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 5)
Discussion
Don't think they will go stricter unless the measures are not seen to be working.
They've just spent the past week urging construction firms and other firms that could still trade but aren't, to get back to work. If, within days of doing so, they are told to close again, that won't go down well.
Large gatherings / sporting events won't resume until next year I don't think. Ditto pubs and restaurants. The overwhelming majority of pubs and restaurants are going to go bust before they are allowed to reopen. Our high streets will be desolate places after this.
They've just spent the past week urging construction firms and other firms that could still trade but aren't, to get back to work. If, within days of doing so, they are told to close again, that won't go down well.
Large gatherings / sporting events won't resume until next year I don't think. Ditto pubs and restaurants. The overwhelming majority of pubs and restaurants are going to go bust before they are allowed to reopen. Our high streets will be desolate places after this.
zarjaz_ said:
Don't think they will go stricter unless the measures are not seen to be working.
They've just spent the past week urging construction firms and other firms that could still trade but aren't, to get back to work. If, within days of doing so, they are told to close again, that won't go down well.
Large gatherings / sporting events won't resume until next year I don't think. Ditto pubs and restaurants. The overwhelming majority of pubs and restaurants are going to go bust before they are allowed to reopen. Our high streets will be desolate places after this.
Where was this message urging firms to go back to work?They've just spent the past week urging construction firms and other firms that could still trade but aren't, to get back to work. If, within days of doing so, they are told to close again, that won't go down well.
Large gatherings / sporting events won't resume until next year I don't think. Ditto pubs and restaurants. The overwhelming majority of pubs and restaurants are going to go bust before they are allowed to reopen. Our high streets will be desolate places after this.
ashleyman said:
Been thinking about this lockdown thing and I reckon it's going to be toughened, then reduced and then extended.
Today is April 8th. Nearly 2 weeks after the UK 'locked down' and numbers are not improving. They've probably slowed compared to where we would be if we hadn't 'locked down' but who knows...
Why would you think things will improve 2 weeks after lockdown? Especially wrt to deaths as cases have if not slowed at least seemingly stopped increasingly sharply. In general studies have shown it takes an average of about 18-19 days from symptoms to dying and 5 days from infection to showing symptoms. It would make utterly no sense to further increase restrictions unless there was good reason to believe the current restrictions were being widely flouted (which there isn't)Today is April 8th. Nearly 2 weeks after the UK 'locked down' and numbers are not improving. They've probably slowed compared to where we would be if we hadn't 'locked down' but who knows...
ashleyman said:
Been thinking about this lockdown thing and I reckon it's going to be toughened, then reduced and then extended. I think when you take the whole picture and ask 'is it realistic we'll be set free on April 13th?' I think the answer will be absolutely not.
Hear me out....
We've got the Nightingale hospitals setting up this week and next...
We've got businesses able to furlough staff for 3 months with room for extension.
We've got over 70's self isolating for 12 weeks. (3 weeks in now?)
We've got NHS volunteers setting up to deliver things to the vulnerable or isolating
All NHS leave has been cancelled and people are coming out of retirement.
The FCO guidance has been extended and travel isn't advised unless essential.
Most schools have been closed.
It's likely to get much, much worse. Half of hospital beds aren't filled, let alone the many thousands they're creating...
What we've had so far:
March 16th - Boris announces people should work from home where possible and closes XXX
March 23rd - Boris announces UK 'lockdown' and toughens what we can/cannot do for a period of 3 weeks.
Today is April 8th. Nearly 2 weeks after the UK 'locked down' and numbers are not improving. They've probably slowed compared to where we would be if we hadn't 'locked down' but who knows...
So, I think that on;
April 13th - We must be nearing or at the start of the final peak here - therefore I reckon they'll go tough to ensure the NHS doesn't have to deal with unnecessary distractions, keep roads and skies clear for emergencies and supplies movement. They'll likely close construction sites and whatever is left and go further with business restrictions.
April 27th - We should have start to see new numbers decrease from the first lock down. Deaths will still be rising but new infections shouldn't be as high. We should be testing more by now and therefore we can reduce the restrictions. We'll go back to the restrictions we had announced on March 23rd. They'll renew for another 3 weeks and then re-review.
During this time, deaths will be high but new infections should be going down. Beds are starting to free up etc...
May 11 - Numbers are starting to dramatically fall due to the tough 2 weeks mid April. Other EU countries are already getting back to normal. Talk will start about gatherings and sports and other things. But the government will want to avoid mass gatherings. Therefore I can see them saying, everyone back to work where you can BUT large events such as festivals, concerts and football matches are not to resume yet.
June 1st - UK goes back to normal. I know of planning that's being done to resume big events from mid June so we can't be that far off.
I still don't quite know how to process the fact that a family friend is on a ventilator and is most likely going to die this week.
I feel desperately sorry for the lady who's husband passed away from this. She must feel so guilty for passing it on and surviving.
My friend from work who had this virus is still not 100% after nearly 3 weeks of being symptom free. He says his breathing and energy levels are just not what whey used to be.
My sisters boyfriend is now confirmed too. 25 year old guy, very fit and healthy, black (as they say that can make a difference). He caught it from his mum who's a nurse who had symptoms and self isolated.. He's been sleeping nearly 20 hours a day since Saturday. I feel bad for them. He's likely to be fine but if his sister gets it she will die as she's shielding.
Thankfully, I still have a job and so does my wife. No threat of furlough just yet... We're so far healthy.
Can't wait for this to be over. Hopefully without having lost anyone else.
Some fair, reasonable and I think, realistic projections. Time as ever will truly tell.Hear me out....
We've got the Nightingale hospitals setting up this week and next...
We've got businesses able to furlough staff for 3 months with room for extension.
We've got over 70's self isolating for 12 weeks. (3 weeks in now?)
We've got NHS volunteers setting up to deliver things to the vulnerable or isolating
All NHS leave has been cancelled and people are coming out of retirement.
The FCO guidance has been extended and travel isn't advised unless essential.
Most schools have been closed.
It's likely to get much, much worse. Half of hospital beds aren't filled, let alone the many thousands they're creating...
What we've had so far:
March 16th - Boris announces people should work from home where possible and closes XXX
March 23rd - Boris announces UK 'lockdown' and toughens what we can/cannot do for a period of 3 weeks.
Today is April 8th. Nearly 2 weeks after the UK 'locked down' and numbers are not improving. They've probably slowed compared to where we would be if we hadn't 'locked down' but who knows...
So, I think that on;
April 13th - We must be nearing or at the start of the final peak here - therefore I reckon they'll go tough to ensure the NHS doesn't have to deal with unnecessary distractions, keep roads and skies clear for emergencies and supplies movement. They'll likely close construction sites and whatever is left and go further with business restrictions.
April 27th - We should have start to see new numbers decrease from the first lock down. Deaths will still be rising but new infections shouldn't be as high. We should be testing more by now and therefore we can reduce the restrictions. We'll go back to the restrictions we had announced on March 23rd. They'll renew for another 3 weeks and then re-review.
During this time, deaths will be high but new infections should be going down. Beds are starting to free up etc...
May 11 - Numbers are starting to dramatically fall due to the tough 2 weeks mid April. Other EU countries are already getting back to normal. Talk will start about gatherings and sports and other things. But the government will want to avoid mass gatherings. Therefore I can see them saying, everyone back to work where you can BUT large events such as festivals, concerts and football matches are not to resume yet.
June 1st - UK goes back to normal. I know of planning that's being done to resume big events from mid June so we can't be that far off.
I still don't quite know how to process the fact that a family friend is on a ventilator and is most likely going to die this week.
I feel desperately sorry for the lady who's husband passed away from this. She must feel so guilty for passing it on and surviving.
My friend from work who had this virus is still not 100% after nearly 3 weeks of being symptom free. He says his breathing and energy levels are just not what whey used to be.
My sisters boyfriend is now confirmed too. 25 year old guy, very fit and healthy, black (as they say that can make a difference). He caught it from his mum who's a nurse who had symptoms and self isolated.. He's been sleeping nearly 20 hours a day since Saturday. I feel bad for them. He's likely to be fine but if his sister gets it she will die as she's shielding.
Thankfully, I still have a job and so does my wife. No threat of furlough just yet... We're so far healthy.
Can't wait for this to be over. Hopefully without having lost anyone else.
Edited by ashleyman on Wednesday 8th April 00:54
Sorry to hear of your personal impact from this.
isaldiri said:
ashleyman said:
Been thinking about this lockdown thing and I reckon it's going to be toughened, then reduced and then extended.
Today is April 8th. Nearly 2 weeks after the UK 'locked down' and numbers are not improving. They've probably slowed compared to where we would be if we hadn't 'locked down' but who knows...
Why would you think things will improve 2 weeks after lockdown? Especially wrt to deaths as cases have if not slowed at least seemingly stopped increasingly sharply. In general studies have shown it takes an average of about 18-19 days from symptoms to dying and 5 days from infection to showing symptoms. It would make utterly no sense to further increase restrictions unless there was good reason to believe the current restrictions were being widely flouted (which there isn't)Today is April 8th. Nearly 2 weeks after the UK 'locked down' and numbers are not improving. They've probably slowed compared to where we would be if we hadn't 'locked down' but who knows...
I’m just saying I think they’ll go further. Just me speculating.
anonymous said:
[redacted]
If things don’t get back to something resembling normal by mid May - the economy will be damaged beyond any short term repair. This will start sinking in to the average man on the street by mid May at the latest. Expect chaos and mass disobedience when people can’t pay the bills.
The virus is nothing compared to the economic I impacts.
ashleyman said:
IMO this letter does the opposite of what you suggest
Not really sure how you read it that way the middle paragraph is very clear.. "However, we know that for many people working in construction their job requires them to travel to their place of work, and they can continue to do so. "The minister is being quite clear that the stay at home message allows construction which requires workers to be away from to to work to be away but that the defined site operating procedures should be followed. The procedures are linked to... http://www.constructionleadershipcouncil.co.uk/new...
Which is even clearer "The Government has confirmed that construction sites should continue to operate during the current Coronavirus pandemic."
markyb_lcy said:
Trump, a man who continued to downplay the crisis including after WHO declared it a pandemic has now said the USA will stop giving WHO money because they didn’t make the call on the pandemic early enough. This is a man whose stupidity knows no bounds and continues to surprise.
He is referring to the WHO covering for the Chinese and their lying about true numbers. The WHO are in their pocket. Did you notice how the WHO did not mention Taiwan as a place.President Trump said:
They missed the call. They could’ve called it months earlier.”
Here is a bit from the Daily telegraph in Australia.
The World Health Organisation also appointed Zimbabwean murderer Robert Mugabe as its Goodwill Ambassador and declared on March 2 that the “stigma” of the coronavirus “is more dangerous than the virus itself”.
Edited by Jimbeaux on Wednesday 8th April 01:53
b0rk said:
ashleyman said:
IMO this letter does the opposite of what you suggest
Not really sure how you read it that way the middle paragraph is very clear.. "However, we know that for many people working in construction their job requires them to travel to their place of work, and they can continue to do so. "The minister is being quite clear that the stay at home message allows construction which requires workers to be away from to to work to be away but that the defined site operating procedures should be followed. The procedures are linked to... http://www.constructionleadershipcouncil.co.uk/new...
Which is even clearer "The Government has confirmed that construction sites should continue to operate during the current Coronavirus pandemic."
g4ry13 said:
Jimbeaux said:
More glimmers of light; New York again reports a drop on number of hospital admissions.
Or those infected can't afford to pay the bill so don't bother.I was just posting a bit of good news, can it just be accepted as such? The need for some to pour water on any glimmer of hope is an odd trait I am seeing on some of PH.
Edited by Jimbeaux on Wednesday 8th April 01:44
Gromm said:
Absolutely f marvellous, this is getting better and better with every passing day:
In addition to lung damage, many COVID-19 patients are also developing heart problems—and dying of cardiac arrest. As more data comes in from China and Italy, as well as Washington state and New York, more cardiac experts are coming to believe the COVID-19 virus can infect the heart muscle. An initial study found cardiac damage in as many as 1 in 5 patients, leading to heart failure and death even among those who show no signs of respiratory distress.
But isn’t that consistent with what has been diagnosed with the patients needing intensive care previously: that multiple organ impacts are seemingly common and that the heart and lungs are taking a shellacking?In addition to lung damage, many COVID-19 patients are also developing heart problems—and dying of cardiac arrest. As more data comes in from China and Italy, as well as Washington state and New York, more cardiac experts are coming to believe the COVID-19 virus can infect the heart muscle. An initial study found cardiac damage in as many as 1 in 5 patients, leading to heart failure and death even among those who show no signs of respiratory distress.
Lungs with serious damage even in non symptomatic patients? Kidneys failing?
If there is serious strain on the lungs and heart (commensurate with the warnings around high death rates with those with hypertension) then heart damage kind of follows.
I may be being a bit simplistic but it seems kind of obvious?
Ridgemont said:
But isn’t that consistent with what has been diagnosed with the patients needing intensive care previously: that multiple organ impacts are seemingly common and that the heart and lungs are taking a shellacking?
Lungs with serious damage even in non symptomatic patients? Kidneys failing?
If there is serious strain on the lungs and heart (commensurate with the warnings around high death rates with those with hypertension) then heart damage kind of follows.
I may be being a bit simplistic but it seems kind of obvious?
I raised this issue when that young girl died if a heart attack and it was disputed. The way Sars2 works is by entering the cells through ace2. These are found in the heart, lungs and liver. Without doing biopsies if the muscle how would anyone really know.Lungs with serious damage even in non symptomatic patients? Kidneys failing?
If there is serious strain on the lungs and heart (commensurate with the warnings around high death rates with those with hypertension) then heart damage kind of follows.
I may be being a bit simplistic but it seems kind of obvious?
Thesprucegoose said:
Ridgemont said:
But isn’t that consistent with what has been diagnosed with the patients needing intensive care previously: that multiple organ impacts are seemingly common and that the heart and lungs are taking a shellacking?
Lungs with serious damage even in non symptomatic patients? Kidneys failing?
If there is serious strain on the lungs and heart (commensurate with the warnings around high death rates with those with hypertension) then heart damage kind of follows.
I may be being a bit simplistic but it seems kind of obvious?
I raised this issue when that young girl died if a heart attack and it was disputed. The way Sars2 works is by entering the cells through ace2. These are found in the heart, lungs and liver. Without doing biopsies if the muscle how would anyone really know.Lungs with serious damage even in non symptomatic patients? Kidneys failing?
If there is serious strain on the lungs and heart (commensurate with the warnings around high death rates with those with hypertension) then heart damage kind of follows.
I may be being a bit simplistic but it seems kind of obvious?
I am not a medical type but I’d imagine someone is clocking the relevance. I hope.
Not sure what they would do about that finding given no vaccine: how do you reduce the lungs/heart load? No idea apart from maybe not catching it in the first place.
I guess the only question is the ventilator approach: does it make sense as a last resort to be pumping oxygen in if the fatality effect is 81% I’ve no idea. Just scrabbling ideas.
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