Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 5)

[98elise]

Stay in Bed Instead said:

pneumothorax said:

A bad night in ooh gp land. My fears have been crystallised in a big way. Visited one home to palliate some poor soul, and confirm another death and was told that one floor of the home has been lost in the last week, that is 16 out of 40 residents. I saw three or four in passing that were also "on their way". No one is being let in and the ambulance service are not taking anyone out. Shocking to see. It's quite possible that this particular facility will have no paying customers in a week or two's time.

At least one news channel was stating recently, don't go into a care home as a new resident at the moment.

It would seem sensible advice.

[anonymous-user]

rosetank said:

The entire EU situation will be fascinating as the world recovers.

Yes considering Germany has done well, whilst other EU states struggled. You would think if the EU was succesful it would have taken better charge to help the worst states, like the US has done, moving resource around to help member states. I think this may be the final endings of the EU we know today.

Edited by Thesprucegoose on Wednesday 8th April 09:38

[Coolbananas]

EddieSteadyGo said:

... Except we will be told to carry on pretty much as normal...

Doubtful.

We've already been told our likely conditions for the current lockdown being removed:
1. 2m distancing continues
2. Compulsory wearing of masks in public at all times
3. No large gatherings - to be decided still in terms of numbers
4. Restricted travel - to be decided still in terms of distance
5. No handshakes, touching etc in public.


It won't be 'as you were' at all where I live. Not for, and I quote our CMO, "many months". What we will see is all businesses open and local travel resumed but not an 'it is over' situation at all.

[markyb_lcy]

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle Is predicting that the UK will be the worst-hit European country (based on their projected death figures)...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-w...

They’re predicting a peak of just under 3000 daily deaths on 17 April.

If this (the general assertion rather than the numbers) turns out to be true (I’m not saying it will) then there will be major pressure on the govt after what has been a period of relative goodwill by their usual politician opponents.

Guardian said:

By August the UK is projected to have recorded more Covid-19 deaths than Italy, Spain, France and Germany combined

Edited by markyb_lcy on Wednesday 8th April 09:40

[EddieSteadyGo]

Coolbananas said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

... Except we will be told to carry on pretty much as normal...

Doubtful.

We've already been told our likely conditions for the current lockdown being removed:
1. 2m distancing continues
2. Compulsory wearing of masks in public at all times
3. No large gatherings - to be decided still in terms of numbers
4. Restricted travel - to be decided still in terms of distance
5. No handshakes, touching etc in public.

It won't be 'as you were' at all where I live. Not for, and I quote our CMO, "many months". What we will see is all businesses open and local travel resumed but not an 'it is over' situation at all.

Yes, I agree, it won't be completely as life was previously. But normal in the sense that nearly all businesses will be open, all shops will be open, the economy will be mostly functioning as normal.

[otolith]

Thesprucegoose said:

turbobloke said:

There was no herd strategy, it was inferred by journalists not implied by ministers. .

I guess the ''UK's Chief Scientific Adviser has said a degree of herd immunity is required'', was inferred

It's not really a strategy. It's just one of the two ways that the disease ends, the other being that we cause it to die out by isolating the infected.

Herd immunity through the natural progress of the disease is only a strategy in the same way that "it will go out when it has burnt to the ground" is.

[pneumothorax]

It is the stuff of nightmares, staff are leaving, agency ones coming in to partially fill the gaps. If I had a sentient relative in one of these places I would have removed them weeks ago. This was predictable. You would have to actually see what I do to actually believe it.
I have a thing where I talk to any other residents as I am walking through these places en route to whoever I am seeing, there are always folk sitting around in the communal areas and they like to see a new face and have a chat. Last night I clocked one chap in the tv room, actually watching the news channel, said hello and then realised there was another resident (clearly dying) slumped in one of the other chairs, not watching anything....I suspect she will die in that chair.

It's a new reality and it is getting slightly dystopian.

[Welshbeef]

What a st morning.

Just heard that one of our staff lost their father to the virus over the weekend.
In addition to that a Uni friend works in Cardiff Uni and they lost a Dr a few days ago to C19 (heart specialist working on the front line).

[Jimbeaux]

turbobloke said:

Jimbeaux said:

hidetheelephants said:

EddieSteadyGo said:

He hasn't pulled the funding. I don't think he will either. He says he is "going to look at it". Which is Trump's typical way of applying leverage.

On the WHO, they tiptoed around China in the early stages of the outbreak. When they eventually got access to Wuhan, they were granted very limited access. And they were quite meek in accepting what the Chinese government were prepared to offer in terms of access.

Aren't the US a year or so adrift with their payments anyway? "I'm not paying anymore" isn't much of a threat if you've already not been paying. The Chinese do pay.

Here are the "invoices" for 2020-2021 from the WHO. Click a country to see. Why is China's bill half of the U.S., especially seeing their population? I suppose it goes by GDP as opposed to population. As to if we are in arrears, I am still looking.

https://www.who.int/about/finances-accountability/...

"Trump’s suggestion to reduce WHO’s funding comes after he already proposed in the White House’s budget request for fiscal year 2021 cutting in half the amount Congress allocated the agency in 2020 — from roughly $122 million to less than $58 million. Still by far the highest contributor.
among WHO’s 194 member states, the U.S. remains the greatest contributor to the agency’s $4.8 billion budget." - Source: Politico.com

Trump is also saying that the WHO has been too accepting of China, too pro-China while criticising western nations' response, claiming it 'missed the call'. To whom is the WHO accountable and what means are there of holding this budget drain with an eye for self-promotion to account?

On the matter of journalism and the catalogue of silly, repetitive, point-scoring, partisan and basically st-stirring questions, Sky is now reporting other journalists' questions as lead news items: 'questions are being asked' NSS you're asking them. At least, underneath this garbage dressed up as reporting, they're carrying a comment from former Cabinet Secretary Lord Pickles that Raab has the power to deal with any circumstances that may arise.

They're also being told in interviews that decisions (about when/how) on lockdown depend on data and medical/scientific advice not a false and rigid timetable that journalists believe exists or should exist. Listening isn't their strength.

Good questions as to being held accountable. The U.N. is the umbrella that covers them; that alone should give pause. To many agenda swirling around that storm.
As to the reporters, I am with you. The media as an international animal seems to have lost its way when it comes to the definition of "Journalism".

[TheJimi]

m3jappa said:

We are being told (understandably) that if we all follow the rules then infections will drop and death rates will drop, we are also told hospitals are still within capacity.

At the same time the government are building several new hospitals over the country while at the same time cancelling as much other stuff they can freeing up other beds and staff, they have also recruited several thousand retired staff and volunteers.

But why do all that if infections will drop during a lockdown?

At a very simplistic level - plan for worst, hope for the best.

[Matty3]

pneumothorax said:

A bad night in ooh gp land. My fears have been crystallised in a big way. Visited one home to palliate some poor soul, and confirm another death and was told that one floor of the home has been lost in the last week, that is 16 out of 40 residents. I saw three or four in passing that were also "on their way". No one is being let in and the ambulance service are not taking anyone out. Shocking to see. It's quite possible that this particular facility will have no paying customers in a week or two's time.

Good gracious what an absolutely horrible nights work - what an awful situation to be faced with, I really find it rather difficult to contemplate how you guys and gals on the front line are coping with this tragedy, you all have my utmost admiration.

[Jimbeaux]

CardinalBlue said:

Trump said yesterday that the UK government have asked the US government for 200 ventilators as we are ‘desperate’ for them.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/donald-trump...

Well if 200 ventilators can keep your guys from having to decide someone misses out, we better damn well hand them over IMO and I promise the opinion of most Americans. You'd do the same for us if the tables were turned.

[anonymous-user]

markyb_lcy said:

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle Is predicting that the UK will be the worst-hit European country (based on their projected death figures)...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/uk-w...

They’re predicting a peak of just under 3000 daily deaths on 17 April.

If this (the general assertion rather than the numbers) turns out to be true (I’m not saying it will) then there will be major pressure on the govt after what has been a period of relative goodwill by their usual politician opponents.

The Government got it very wrong, there is no doubt in that, letting Cheltenham take place in hindsight was a death sentence to a lot. Combined with minimal testing it is very sad we will be hard hit on deaths, as it could have been very different, and this is what you expect a government to do.

But in fairness I think it is a British politics issue over party issue as I can't see labour doing much better. Too much spin, and too much pandering to public opinion.


The whole Brexit debacle consumed too much time and resources, the finger clearly wasn't on the pulse of other events.

[Ultra Sound Guy]

Just out of interest, is there anywhere to get figures for...
Total Uk deaths in January to April 2019.
Total UK deaths (including CV19) for 2020?

Just interested in the real impact.

[Graveworm]

EddieSteadyGo said:

Thesprucegoose said:

98elise said:

Herd immunity is the goal regardless of the strategy, be that by infection and recovery or vaccination.

It would be if we get immune to it once we had it, which is very unclear, so a strategy based on it, is not a very good one.

Immunity once infected is a critical assumption I agree. If that wasn't the case, "option 1" (strict lockdown until burn out, borders closed until vaccine) or "option 2" (partial lockdown until vaccine) would be potentially better options.

You can't have a vaccine without immunity.

[Jimbeaux]

ChocolateFrog said:

I'd always assumed the WHO was a just a mouthpiece with a few advisors and inspectors based out of somewhere like Geneva.

What the fk are they spending 4.8 billion dollars a year on, the GDP of a small country.

I wager if you peeled away the bloated administrative gravy train riders, it would be not so much.

[anonymous-user]

Ultra Sound Guy said:

Just out of interest, is there anywhere to get figures for...
Total Uk deaths in January to April 2019.
Total UK deaths (including CV19) for 2020?

Just interested in the real impact.

The ONS data is too laggy right now, to mean anything at such an early stage in the curve. as soon as the data is meaninful, it will be all over the news you won't have to look. (same happened in italy)

[anonymous-user]

pneumothorax said:

It is the stuff of nightmares, staff are leaving, agency ones coming in to partially fill the gaps. If I had a sentient relative in one of these places I would have removed them weeks ago. This was predictable. You would have to actually see what I do to actually believe it.
I have a thing where I talk to any other residents as I am walking through these places en route to whoever I am seeing, there are always folk sitting around in the communal areas and they like to see a new face and have a chat. Last night I clocked one chap in the tv room, actually watching the news channel, said hello and then realised there was another resident (clearly dying) slumped in one of the other chairs, not watching anything....I suspect she will die in that chair.

It's a new reality and it is getting slightly dystopian.

Words fail me..........Other than to say you have my utmost respect.

[WindyCommon]

Ultra Sound Guy said:

Just out of interest, is there anywhere to get figures for...
Total Uk deaths in January to April 2019.
Total UK deaths (including CV19) for 2020?

Just interested in the real impact.

Here’s a good article (despite the cheap clickbait headline) covering that ground: https://conservativewoman.co.uk/covid-19-timebomb-...

The conclusion of which reads:

“In conclusion, an upswing in EWD for 2019-2020 was likely. But on present showing, any purely cyclical increase is unlikely to reach the 2017-2018 peak. Any increase in mortality due solely to Covid-19 has yet to be reflected in the data, but the possibility of such an increase as subsequent numbers are released should not be discounted.

The ONS figures used here show returns for all deaths and so it follows that deaths due wholly to Covid-19 infection are so far either too small to be detectable in the overall mortality rate, or that mortality from all other causes must have decreased in proportion to the number of new Covid-19 deaths.

Covid-19 deaths are thus lost in the statistics, because the population is currently less susceptible to other causes of death. In other words, the population is healthier than usual, but Covid-19 deaths are masking that improvement. This is unlikely to be the case.“

Edited by WindyCommon on Wednesday 8th April 09:58

[anonymous-user]

EddieSteadyGo said:

The ironic thing is that, in 6 weeks time, the risks of infection are going to be pretty much exactly the same as they are now, and the government is going to tell you that it is absolutely fine.

How do you know?

Have you been sitting in the cabinet?