How do we think EU negotiations will go? (Vol 14)
Discussion
Tuna said:
tobinen said:
I don't have a very good feeling about today. I hope I am wrong but I see Team UK folding.
I'd be quite surprised if anything happens today. The Council will meet. They'll make some statement about needing this that and the other. We'll say we have to consider our options...Tomorrow we might get some more clarity, but it's just as likely to be an schedule to discuss a little bit more.
I may be wrong, but I don't believe we'll see either an agreement, or an exit today.
I'd expect that announcement by Monday latest.
Sway said:
As he's still referring to the deadline, I'd suggest there's the Council meeting today. From that, if there's no movement and Macron is still demanding cake fish, then I'd expect public announcement that we are full bore preparations for no deal.
I'd expect that announcement by Monday latest.
Boris needs to get his arse in front if this, tomorrow 7 PM latest.I'd expect that announcement by Monday latest.
He should be clear and unequivocal he's talking to the nation and the EU.
Publicly set out WHY we are pulling out the negotiations. He can be clear on why the IMB was put forward, and why it is needed if the EC have the capability or threaten to disrupt internal goods flow. Why are are wasting time with the EC on repeat, and set out a policy deliver framework for the next few months.
Its probably not good diplomatic etiquette to throw Macron under a bus with his silly electioneering demands, but I might be tempted to give the a final specific f
k off there (and watch them turn in on themselves).stongle said:
Sway said:
As he's still referring to the deadline, I'd suggest there's the Council meeting today. From that, if there's no movement and Macron is still demanding cake fish, then I'd expect public announcement that we are full bore preparations for no deal.
I'd expect that announcement by Monday latest.
Boris needs to get his arse in front if this, tomorrow 7 PM latest.I'd expect that announcement by Monday latest.
He should be clear and unequivocal he's talking to the nation and the EU.
Publicly set out WHY we are pulling out the negotiations. He can be clear on why the IMB was put forward, and why it is needed if the EC have the capability or threaten to disrupt internal goods flow. Why are are wasting time with the EC on repeat, and set out a policy deliver framework for the next few months.
Its probably not good diplomatic etiquette to throw Macron under a bus with his silly electioneering demands, but I might be tempted to give the a final specific f
k off there (and watch them turn in on themselves).I can see him having a busy weekend though. Really show he's given it everything (as the subtle f
k you to Macron) to try and achieve a deal. DeltonaS said:
The people who really aren't emotionally invested is the rest of Europe. Nobody cares,
We know, that's why we're leaving.DeltonaS said:
Currently I even wonder why the EU even negotiates with those high maintenance folks at the other side of the North Sea.
Is Barnier going to start negotiating? That's good news, when is he going to start?One of our problems has been the very public issue of the unlawful legislation. It gives the impression we'll agree to something, only to renege on it later on. That puts you in a weak negotiating position if you're hunting or offering concessions. If the other side believe you won't honour a bargain, why accept a deal in reliance of it?
Looks like it's going to all about the fish from the French today, which doesn't bode well for an agreement between the UK/EU:
Katya Adler
@BBCkatyaadler
France’s Europe Minister talks of one single objective :
to defend and protect the rights of French fisher people .. This, just ahead of todays EU leaders summit where #Brexit trade talks and possible EU compromises are to be explored ..
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/131663179...
Katya Adler
@BBCkatyaadler
France’s Europe Minister talks of one single objective :
to defend and protect the rights of French fisher people .. This, just ahead of todays EU leaders summit where #Brexit trade talks and possible EU compromises are to be explored ..
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/131663179...
Sway said:
stongle said:
Sway said:
As he's still referring to the deadline, I'd suggest there's the Council meeting today. From that, if there's no movement and Macron is still demanding cake fish, then I'd expect public announcement that we are full bore preparations for no deal.
I'd expect that announcement by Monday latest.
Boris needs to get his arse in front if this, tomorrow 7 PM latest.I'd expect that announcement by Monday latest.
He should be clear and unequivocal he's talking to the nation and the EU.
Publicly set out WHY we are pulling out the negotiations. He can be clear on why the IMB was put forward, and why it is needed if the EC have the capability or threaten to disrupt internal goods flow. Why are are wasting time with the EC on repeat, and set out a policy deliver framework for the next few months.
Its probably not good diplomatic etiquette to throw Macron under a bus with his silly electioneering demands, but I might be tempted to give the a final specific f
k off there (and watch them turn in on themselves).I can see him having a busy weekend though. Really show he's given it everything (as the subtle f
k you to Macron) to try and achieve a deal. Friday at 7pm to stick to the deadline and ram home we're serious. Monday at 9am to give him chance to call Merkel and a few others and talk to his cabinet. Come on TV with the sad face.
But in either scenario he needs to be firm. He needs to say there is quite evidently no point in further negotiations at this stage, that the EU know what our position is (and get an easily digestible version up on the government website) and that should they find themselves able to discuss those positions on "fish" and LPF in the spirit of a normal FTA then Lord Frost will be made available to them but not for a continuation of the current impasse.
He should then sad face that a "no deal" was never in anyone's best interests, but that especially in circumstances like we find ourselves in now, ceding national control to the EU in key areas would not be leaving the EU and that as the EU are insisting upon this, we are left with no alternative. We'll move on strongly and as and when the circumstances allow we'll talk again with our friends in the member states and hopefully one day will be able to agree an appropriate FTA.
No point waiting to the end of this month. Cut the pretence Monday latest and don't re-engage unless they are prepared to talk about proper FTA terms. Focus on getting the IMB through. Ramp up visibly on preps and move on.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
One of our problems has been the very public issue of the unlawful legislation. It gives the impression we'll agree to something, only to renege on it later on. That puts you in a weak negotiating position if you're hunting or offering concessions. If the other side believe you won't honour a bargain, why accept a deal in reliance of it?
I don’t agree with this.What it tells the other side is that they do not have the leverage they think they have and that if they don’t negotiate in good faith, all bets are off.
I sometimes wonder if most people on here have ever negotiated anything...negotiations at this level can be brutal.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
One of our problems has been the very public issue of the unlawful legislation. It gives the impression we'll agree to something, only to renege on it later on. That puts you in a weak negotiating position if you're hunting or offering concessions. If the other side believe you won't honour a bargain, why accept a deal in reliance of it?
The legislation in and of itself is not unlawful. It's not even been passed into law yet, and even when it is it will simply be sat there.It only becomes unlawful if two conditions are met. (1) The EU play silly buggers with "good faith" provisions in the WA and (2) Parliament agree that (1) has happened.
"Honour" cuts all ways mon ami.
don'tbesilly said:
Looks like it's going to all about the fish from the French today, which doesn't bode well for an agreement between the UK/EU:
Katya Adler
@BBCkatyaadler
France’s Europe Minister talks of one single objective :
to defend and protect the rights of French fisher people .. This, just ahead of todays EU leaders summit where #Brexit trade talks and possible EU compromises are to be explored ..
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/131663179...
It will be interesting to hear what the other 26 member states think about that....Katya Adler
@BBCkatyaadler
France’s Europe Minister talks of one single objective :
to defend and protect the rights of French fisher people .. This, just ahead of todays EU leaders summit where #Brexit trade talks and possible EU compromises are to be explored ..
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/131663179...
What it needs to all be about is the LPF. And put simply "why aren't we just offering them the same as Canada on that front?".
loafer123 said:
I don’t agree with this.
What it tells the other side is that they do not have the leverage they think they have and that if they don’t negotiate in good faith, all bets are off.
I sometimes wonder if most people on here have ever negotiated anything...negotiations at this level can be brutal.
The one thing you need above all in a negotiation is integrity. Shaking hands then reneging is not evidence of integrity. What it tells the other side is that they do not have the leverage they think they have and that if they don’t negotiate in good faith, all bets are off.
I sometimes wonder if most people on here have ever negotiated anything...negotiations at this level can be brutal.
Negotiations can be as brutal as you like. If one side believes the other has no integrity, there is no benefit in accepting what are possibly only discretionary concessions
Unfortunately our PM has a well documented history of deceit in his personal and professional life, and has only reinforced this impression with his recent bill. The EU will not want to fall into the trap of agreeing to something now that is ignored as soon as their backs are turned.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
loafer123 said:
I don’t agree with this.
What it tells the other side is that they do not have the leverage they think they have and that if they don’t negotiate in good faith, all bets are off.
I sometimes wonder if most people on here have ever negotiated anything...negotiations at this level can be brutal.
The one thing you need above all in a negotiation is integrity. Shaking hands then reneging is not evidence of integrity. What it tells the other side is that they do not have the leverage they think they have and that if they don’t negotiate in good faith, all bets are off.
I sometimes wonder if most people on here have ever negotiated anything...negotiations at this level can be brutal.
Negotiations can be as brutal as you like. If one side believes the other has no integrity, there is no benefit in accepting what are possibly only discretionary concessions
Unfortunately our PM has a well documented history of deceit in his personal and professional life, and has only reinforced this impression with his recent bill. The EU will not want to fall into the trap of agreeing to something now that is ignored as soon as their backs are turned.
loafer123 said:
What a load of nonsense. Negotiations aren’t about integrity at all. They are about achieving the optimum outcome based on the circumstances at the time.
Would you accept a deal based on the word of a person you didn't trust would honour it?That would be a very odd thing to do.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
loafer123 said:
I don’t agree with this.
What it tells the other side is that they do not have the leverage they think they have and that if they don’t negotiate in good faith, all bets are off.
I sometimes wonder if most people on here have ever negotiated anything...negotiations at this level can be brutal.
The one thing you need above all in a negotiation is integrity. Shaking hands then reneging is not evidence of integrity. What it tells the other side is that they do not have the leverage they think they have and that if they don’t negotiate in good faith, all bets are off.
I sometimes wonder if most people on here have ever negotiated anything...negotiations at this level can be brutal.
Negotiations can be as brutal as you like. If one side believes the other has no integrity, there is no benefit in accepting what are possibly only discretionary concessions
Unfortunately our PM has a well documented history of deceit in his personal and professional life, and has only reinforced this impression with his recent bill. The EU will not want to fall into the trap of agreeing to something now that is ignored as soon as their backs are turned.
RonaldMcDonaldAteMyCat said:
loafer123 said:
What a load of nonsense. Negotiations aren’t about integrity at all. They are about achieving the optimum outcome based on the circumstances at the time.
Would you accept a deal based on the word of a person you didn't trust would honour it?That would be a very odd thing to do.
The problem with this negotiation is that the EU want to punish the U.K. for leaving. That does not align the parties interests and therefore is inherently unstable.
BTW, I think we are supposed to be on the vol 15 thread!
Murph7355 said:
Both options would work for me.
Friday at 7pm to stick to the deadline and ram home we're serious. Monday at 9am to give him chance to call Merkel and a few others and talk to his cabinet. Come on TV with the sad face.
But in either scenario he needs to be firm. He needs to say there is quite evidently no point in further negotiations at this stage, that the EU know what our position is (and get an easily digestible version up on the government website) and that should they find themselves able to discuss those positions on "fish" and LPF in the spirit of a normal FTA then Lord Frost will be made available to them but not for a continuation of the current impasse.
He should then sad face that a "no deal" was never in anyone's best interests, but that especially in circumstances like we find ourselves in now, ceding national control to the EU in key areas would not be leaving the EU and that as the EU are insisting upon this, we are left with no alternative. We'll move on strongly and as and when the circumstances allow we'll talk again with our friends in the member states and hopefully one day will be able to agree an appropriate FTA.
No point waiting to the end of this month. Cut the pretence Monday latest and don't re-engage unless they are prepared to talk about proper FTA terms. Focus on getting the IMB through. Ramp up visibly on preps and move on.
You should work in PR (happy face).Friday at 7pm to stick to the deadline and ram home we're serious. Monday at 9am to give him chance to call Merkel and a few others and talk to his cabinet. Come on TV with the sad face.
But in either scenario he needs to be firm. He needs to say there is quite evidently no point in further negotiations at this stage, that the EU know what our position is (and get an easily digestible version up on the government website) and that should they find themselves able to discuss those positions on "fish" and LPF in the spirit of a normal FTA then Lord Frost will be made available to them but not for a continuation of the current impasse.
He should then sad face that a "no deal" was never in anyone's best interests, but that especially in circumstances like we find ourselves in now, ceding national control to the EU in key areas would not be leaving the EU and that as the EU are insisting upon this, we are left with no alternative. We'll move on strongly and as and when the circumstances allow we'll talk again with our friends in the member states and hopefully one day will be able to agree an appropriate FTA.
No point waiting to the end of this month. Cut the pretence Monday latest and don't re-engage unless they are prepared to talk about proper FTA terms. Focus on getting the IMB through. Ramp up visibly on preps and move on.
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