Can Sir Keir Starmer revive the Labour Party?

[anonymous-user]

Tuna said:

swisstoni said:

If Govt had gone for full national lockdowns you can bet that the opposition parties would have called for a more local approach.

If they yang, you ying.

Indeed, and in a continually evolving situation, you can pretty much guarantee you'll eventually be right, or near enough that you can claim clairvoyance.

Starmer had already pinned his colours to the mast with SAGE and the circuit breaker.

Don’t you guys remember everyone criticising him for it on here?

[markyb_lcy]

El stovey said:

Tuna said:

swisstoni said:

If Govt had gone for full national lockdowns you can bet that the opposition parties would have called for a more local approach.

If they yang, you ying.

Indeed, and in a continually evolving situation, you can pretty much guarantee you'll eventually be right, or near enough that you can claim clairvoyance.

Starmer had already pinned his colours to the mast with SAGE and the circuit breaker.

Don’t you guys remember everyone criticising him for it on here?

I was here, criticising him for it on substance but appreciating it on style and political positioning. I maintain that on both counts.

If we go into a 4 week or longer national lockdown now, then it will have been a political masterstroke by Starmer, intended or not.

[bitchstewie]

El stovey said:

Starmer had already pinned his colours to the mast with SAGE and the circuit breaker.

Don’t you guys remember everyone criticising him for it on here?

My view at the time was whether you agree with lockdowns or not Starmer was in a (rather grim) win/win with that position.

If we weren't where we seem to find ourselves he gets to say they were simply following the recommendations of SAGE.

Now that we appear to be where we find ourselves he can claim we might not be here if the Government had done what he and SAGE were advocating.

It'll be interesting to see if and when he pushes that angle and if so how much.

[swisstoni]

El stovey said:

Tuna said:

swisstoni said:

If Govt had gone for full national lockdowns you can bet that the opposition parties would have called for a more local approach.

If they yang, you ying.

Indeed, and in a continually evolving situation, you can pretty much guarantee you'll eventually be right, or near enough that you can claim clairvoyance.

Starmer had already pinned his colours to the mast with SAGE and the circuit breaker.

Don’t you guys remember everyone criticising him for it on here?

He wanted a cycle of 2 week lockdowns.

[anonymous-user]

swisstoni said:

El stovey said:

Tuna said:

swisstoni said:

If Govt had gone for full national lockdowns you can bet that the opposition parties would have called for a more local approach.

If they yang, you ying.

Indeed, and in a continually evolving situation, you can pretty much guarantee you'll eventually be right, or near enough that you can claim clairvoyance.

Starmer had already pinned his colours to the mast with SAGE and the circuit breaker.

Don’t you guys remember everyone criticising him for it on here?

He wanted a cycle of 2 week lockdowns.

Yup that was the SAGE advice. Shorter lockdowns from lower infection rates maybe needing a few over the winter. Which is one plan.

The government went for a tiered approach instead favouring the economy which is another plan.

Doing the tiered approach and THEN a longer lockdown from a higher infection rate is the worst of all approaches.

[768]

bhstewie said:

If we weren't where we seem to find ourselves he gets to say they were simply following the recommendations of SAGE.

He was advocating shutting the stable door a month after sage were saying the horse is bolting.

[bitchstewie]

768 said:

bhstewie said:

If we weren't where we seem to find ourselves he gets to say they were simply following the recommendations of SAGE.

He was advocating shutting the stable door a month after sage were saying the horse is bolting.

I think that the SAGE minutes aren't released immediately.

Covid: Sage scientists called for short lockdown weeks ago

Refers to "newly released documents".

Happy to be corrected on that if it isn't the case.

[markyb_lcy]

768 said:

bhstewie said:

If we weren't where we seem to find ourselves he gets to say they were simply following the recommendations of SAGE.

He was advocating shutting the stable door a month after sage were saying the horse is bolting.

Maybe, but do you think these small details cut through? Will Johnson say “ok, ok, you were more right about this than I was but sage were even more right than you”?

It will be lost in the noise.

[biggbn]

Derek Smith said:

It was political opportunism by Starmer, but, as often's the case, it came right. He now appears prescient.

Not only that, it's knocked the anti-semitism scandal off the front pages. Got to hand it to the guy, he's been lucky in his 6 months. Johnson must hate him.

The leak shows that Johnson's cabinet is right behind him, ready to put a knife into his back. Not quite what he expected of the top job.

Lucky? Or extremely astute?

[anonymous-user]

bhstewie said:

768 said:

bhstewie said:

If we weren't where we seem to find ourselves he gets to say they were simply following the recommendations of SAGE.

He was advocating shutting the stable door a month after sage were saying the horse is bolting.

I think that the SAGE minutes aren't released immediately.

Covid: Sage scientists called for short lockdown weeks ago

Refers to "newly released documents".

Happy to be corrected on that if it isn't the case.

It was the case,

Sage were advising the government for a circuit breaker back on 21st September. Starmer supported it when the minutes were released on the 12th October.

Obviously the longer you leave it the higher the infection rate and the longer the lockdown needs to be to get the r back down.

That’s why sage said to do it early for a couple of weeks and then possibly have some more over the winter.

Their argument was that it would be a simple, known national policy tied to economic support that everyone knew and could be planned better for.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...

[egor110]

768 said:

Probably because too many people and supplies move uncontrolled in both directions over local boundaries to contain the virus.

Someone sends a letter from Manchester to Penzance and suddenly you have an outbreak.

Rubbish.

Letters and parcels have been delivered throughout this epidemic yet the south west has still barely been affected.

[Derek Smith]

biggbn said:

Derek Smith said:

It was political opportunism by Starmer, but, as often's the case, it came right. He now appears prescient.

Not only that, it's knocked the anti-semitism scandal off the front pages. Got to hand it to the guy, he's been lucky in his 6 months. Johnson must hate him.

The leak shows that Johnson's cabinet is right behind him, ready to put a knife into his back. Not quite what he expected of the top job.

Lucky? Or extremely astute?

He had no imput in the release of the report on anti-semitism. The total lockdown recommendation, if that's what it is, was probably an astute move. The conincidental timing of the leak has to be, I presume, luck. Your implication, that the more astute you are, the lucker you are as well, is one I agree with.

He must think that he's got the Midas touch though. It's too good to be true, and, as you suggest, too good to be just luck.

[768]

bhstewie said:

I think that the SAGE minutes aren't released immediately.

Covid: Sage scientists called for short lockdown weeks ago

Refers to "newly released documents".

Happy to be corrected on that if it isn't the case.

They're not published immediately, no. But their suggestion that a 2 week circuit breaker could delay the epidemic by 4 weeks wasn't timed for when Starmer picked up on it a month later.

[768]

markyb_lcy said:

768 said:

bhstewie said:

If we weren't where we seem to find ourselves he gets to say they were simply following the recommendations of SAGE.

He was advocating shutting the stable door a month after sage were saying the horse is bolting.

Maybe, but do you think these small details cut through? Will Johnson say “ok, ok, you were more right about this than I was but sage were even more right than you”?

It will be lost in the noise.

Totally agree. Not just on this issue, but literally any issue these days the slightest hint of nuance is lost in the 140 character storm.

This government don't get everything right, but even when they make reasonable, defendable decisions, they seem totally incapable of pushing their own narrative which just exacerbates the issue.

[anonymous-user]

768 said:

bhstewie said:

I think that the SAGE minutes aren't released immediately.

Covid: Sage scientists called for short lockdown weeks ago

Refers to "newly released documents".

Happy to be corrected on that if it isn't the case.

They're not published immediately, no. But their suggestion that a 2 week circuit breaker could delay the epidemic by 4 weeks wasn't timed for when Starmer picked up on it a month later.

It definitely was, that’s why the minutes got released early so people could put pressure on the government to adopt it in time.

When do you think it was too late to adopt the circuit breaker?

[bitchstewie]

768 said:

They're not published immediately, no. But their suggestion that a 2 week circuit breaker could delay the epidemic by 4 weeks wasn't timed for when Starmer picked up on it a month later.

It may not have been timed for it but public perception is likely to be that SAGE recommended something that Johnson ignored and Starmer advocated and now we find ourselves looking at a likely harsher and longer lockdown.

[768]

El stovey said:

It definitely was, that’s why the minutes got released early so people could put pressure on the government to adopt it in time.

When do you think it was too late to adopt the circuit breaker?

Because the minutes said as much. They were aiming for the 21st September.

[turbobloke]

bhstewie said:

Given what it looks like Boris is about to announce does anyone have a view on Starmer backing Sage's calls for a 2 week circuit break?

I'd prefer a Tier 4 approach, currently neither Boris nor Starmer are backing it, so not much chance.

[markyb_lcy]

768 said:

markyb_lcy said:

768 said:

bhstewie said:

If we weren't where we seem to find ourselves he gets to say they were simply following the recommendations of SAGE.

He was advocating shutting the stable door a month after sage were saying the horse is bolting.

Maybe, but do you think these small details cut through? Will Johnson say “ok, ok, you were more right about this than I was but sage were even more right than you”?

It will be lost in the noise.

Totally agree. Not just on this issue, but literally any issue these days the slightest hint of nuance is lost in the 140 character storm.

This government don't get everything right, but even when they make reasonable, defendable decisions, they seem totally incapable of pushing their own narrative which just exacerbates the issue.

Fair points, but the politicians and the strategists all know the “rules” and limitations of the game. It’s a game that the opposition have a distinct advantage in tbf, but the govt are being routinely outmanoeuvred.

When Boris week before last at PMQs was asserting that what Starmer was advocating was going to plunge the country into economic catastrophe he MUST have understood there was a distinct possibility he would end up doing not only what Starmer was directly advocating but also what Starmer was saying was to be avoided (by doing a “circuit breaker”) namely a longer national lockdown (which is what we are now likely to get).

Now he is going to be utterly battered at the despatch box and to the country he looks like he’s lost control of the situation and belatedly gave in to Starmer and SAGE.

I was glad Boris didn’t do this when initially being pressured into it (by SAGE and later Starmer). Now that’s he’s (likely) fallen into line with it anyway, I have to wonder if it wouldn’t have been a better move to give SAGE their two weeks or whatever in the first instance.

Captain Hindsight notwithstanding.

[Tuna]

768 said:

bhstewie said:

If we weren't where we seem to find ourselves he gets to say they were simply following the recommendations of SAGE.

He was advocating shutting the stable door a month after sage were saying the horse is bolting.

Indeed, and SAGE were saying that the purpose of a circuit breaker lockdown was to give us two weeks to make test and trace work - which in the current environment seems to have been a complete fantasy.