Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)
Discussion
JagLover said:
Melbourne locked down again
It was all but gone from the general population in Victoria - the majority of daily cases were in the quarantine hotels.BBC said:
The new lockdown order will apply to metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire to its north - about five million residents in total.
Mr Andrews says those people can only leave home for care, essential items, exercise and work "if you have to".
"There is simply no alternative other than thousands and thousands of cases and potentially more," he has just told reporters.
"I think a sense of complacency has crept into us as we let our frustrations get the better of us. I think that each of us knows someone who has not been following the rules as well as they should have."
The state had been steadily easing restrictions before the surge in the past fortnight. Currently, it has more than 700 active cases.
Other Australian states and territories continue to report only small numbers of new infections, and have banned Victorians from entry.
Australia has had about 8,500 cases in total and 106 deaths.
If you dont let it pass through the population naturally you will always be at risk of these local flare ups. Mr Andrews says those people can only leave home for care, essential items, exercise and work "if you have to".
"There is simply no alternative other than thousands and thousands of cases and potentially more," he has just told reporters.
"I think a sense of complacency has crept into us as we let our frustrations get the better of us. I think that each of us knows someone who has not been following the rules as well as they should have."
The state had been steadily easing restrictions before the surge in the past fortnight. Currently, it has more than 700 active cases.
Other Australian states and territories continue to report only small numbers of new infections, and have banned Victorians from entry.
Australia has had about 8,500 cases in total and 106 deaths.
The root cause of this outbreak is the f
kwit private security contractors staffing the hotels. Seems they were mixing with some of the detainees and not adhering to distancing procedures among themselves.They then went to "large family gatherings" over a number of weekends and spread it through their family and friends.
So now it is back out of control.
Worth noting that every other state was using the army or police to manage the hotels but Victoria in their infinite wisdom chose not to. Now the army are in the hotels, and the police are having to manage the tower blocks.
It is a clusterf
k.JagLover said:
If you dont let it pass through the population naturally you will always be at risk of these local flare ups.
That's a total guess. No one has achieved it. And looking less likely as time.goes on. Meanwhile there are multiple counties that havn't had a flare up or domestic case in months. And yet you think former is more likely than the latter?
Jader1973 said:
It was all but gone from the general population in Victoria - the majority of daily cases were in the quarantine hotels.
The root cause of this outbreak is the fkwit private security contractors staffing the hotels. Seems they were mixing with some of the detainees and not adhering to distancing procedures among themselves.
They then went to "large family gatherings" over a number of weekends and spread it through their family and friends.
So now it is back out of control.
Worth noting that every other state was using the army or police to manage the hotels but Victoria in their infinite wisdom chose not to. Now the army are in the hotels, and the police are having to manage the tower blocks.
It is a clusterfk.
Whatever the immediate cause if you have a population that you have kept isolated then all it takes is that first spark. The root cause of this outbreak is the f
kwit private security contractors staffing the hotels. Seems they were mixing with some of the detainees and not adhering to distancing procedures among themselves.They then went to "large family gatherings" over a number of weekends and spread it through their family and friends.
So now it is back out of control.
Worth noting that every other state was using the army or police to manage the hotels but Victoria in their infinite wisdom chose not to. Now the army are in the hotels, and the police are having to manage the tower blocks.
It is a clusterf
k.Just another example that this is for the long haul and being able to lock down earlier and keep yourself isolated (like NZ and Australia) isn't the end of the story.
sambucket said:
JagLover said:
If you dont let it pass through the population naturally you will always be at risk of these local flare ups.
That's a total guess. No one has achieved it. And looking less likely as time.goes on. We have had a recent study that shows HI can be achieved at 43% of the population, not the 60% initially cited, which was unadjusted for how this virus specifically spreads.
We also have a strong theory that many recover without producing detectable anti-bodies.
Seems to me that, over time, being able to deal with this naturally is developing a stronger case not a weaker.
Good old Boris the Builder in tune with reality as usual.
Boris Johnson has been criticised for saying "too many care homes didn't really follow the procedures" during the coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53315178
Blame the care homes now..Shift the blame, ive heard that before.
Boris Johnson has been criticised for saying "too many care homes didn't really follow the procedures" during the coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53315178
Blame the care homes now..Shift the blame, ive heard that before.
Boris said:
One of the things the crisis has shown is we need to think about how we organise our social care package better and how we make sure we look after people better who are in social care.
"We discovered too many care homes didn't really follow the procedures in the way that they could have but we're learning lessons the whole time.
"Most important is to fund them properly... but we will also be looking at ways to make sure the care sector long term is properly organised and supported
Latest concocted outrage over a reasonable statement."We discovered too many care homes didn't really follow the procedures in the way that they could have but we're learning lessons the whole time.
"Most important is to fund them properly... but we will also be looking at ways to make sure the care sector long term is properly organised and supported
Care homes saw 30,000 excess deaths. Many of those deaths could have been prevented by steps the carehomes "could" have taken.
JagLover said:
Whatever the immediate cause if you have a population that you have kept isolated then all it takes is that first spark.
Just another example that this is for the long haul and being able to lock down earlier and keep yourself isolated (like NZ and Australia) isn't the end of the story.
Sensibly the following if followed should make it very hard to transmit Just another example that this is for the long haul and being able to lock down earlier and keep yourself isolated (like NZ and Australia) isn't the end of the story.
1. All wear face masks inside (not in your own home)
2. Socially distance - extremely easy during these warm months so let’s keep doing it and kill off as much of the virus as possible.
3. Don’t be complacent
4. Any symptoms isolate off two weeks and that’s the whole household
5. For now WFH where possible to make social distancing easier for those who cannot WFH.
6. Take vitamin D supplements
7. Get the flu vaccine jab not just over 50’s get everyone ideally to get it. This will help reduce flu beds needed in hospital this winter adding to Covid capacity.
Welshbeef said:
Israel too
Also 3 U.K. pubs shut down one Somerset Yorkshire and I forget the last they and all customers attending have to isolate due to positive Covid tests.
You only need to isolate if someone that you have been in close contact with reports symptoms. Just being in the same place, where social distancing has been followed, doesn't require it.Also 3 U.K. pubs shut down one Somerset Yorkshire and I forget the last they and all customers attending have to isolate due to positive Covid tests.
A perfect example of the confusing guidance from this inept government.
JagLover said:
Whatever the immediate cause if you have a population that you have kept isolated then all it takes is that first spark.
Just another example that this is for the long haul and being able to lock down earlier and keep yourself isolated (like NZ and Australia) isn't the end of the story.
Why are you deliberately ignoring the multiple countries that havn't had a case in months? And the largest EU antibody test conducted just yesterday showing 5% in all of Spain? And how long would herd immunity take to achieve given we can't beg people to get cancer screenings, let alone go to covid parties, and how long would immunity last?Just another example that this is for the long haul and being able to lock down earlier and keep yourself isolated (like NZ and Australia) isn't the end of the story.
Lots of guesses on your part, vs real world evidence from multiple countries elimination is perfectly possible.
Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 7th July 08:18
JagLover said:
Less likely?
We have had a recent study that shows HI can be achieved at 43% of the population, not the 60% initially cited, which was unadjusted for how this virus specifically spreads.
We also have a strong theory that many recover without producing detectable anti-bodies.
Seems to me that, over time, being able to deal with this naturally is developing a stronger case not a weaker.
As time passes I would have to agree...We have had a recent study that shows HI can be achieved at 43% of the population, not the 60% initially cited, which was unadjusted for how this virus specifically spreads.
We also have a strong theory that many recover without producing detectable anti-bodies.
Seems to me that, over time, being able to deal with this naturally is developing a stronger case not a weaker.
sambucket said:
Why are you deliberately ignoring the multiple countries that havn't had a case in months? .
Then they have been successful in preventing that initial "spark" doesn't mean the dry tinder isn't still there.In addition to which some countries seem to have far greater natural immunity due to past exposure to previous viruses. Japan is the perfect example there.
Kodama said:
believes Japan may have had Covid before. Not Covid-19, but something similar that could have left behind "historical immunity".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53188847sambucket said:
And the largest antibody test conducted just yesterday showing 5% in all of Spain?
.
Didn't our national testing come back at 6%?. It has still died out in London while showing only 17% though. 43% HI threshold plus many people having it with no detectable anti-bodies. Meaning that HI could be reached with as little as 20% of the population showing detectable anti-bodies..
We will still be vulnerable to local flare-ups where we locked down before we had enough transmission locally.
frisbee said:
Welshbeef said:
Israel too
Also 3 U.K. pubs shut down one Somerset Yorkshire and I forget the last they and all customers attending have to isolate due to positive Covid tests.
You only need to isolate if someone that you have been in close contact with reports symptoms. Just being in the same place, where social distancing has been followed, doesn't require it.Also 3 U.K. pubs shut down one Somerset Yorkshire and I forget the last they and all customers attending have to isolate due to positive Covid tests.
A perfect example of the confusing guidance from this inept government.
Welshbeef said:
frisbee said:
Welshbeef said:
Israel too
Also 3 U.K. pubs shut down one Somerset Yorkshire and I forget the last they and all customers attending have to isolate due to positive Covid tests.
You only need to isolate if someone that you have been in close contact with reports symptoms. Just being in the same place, where social distancing has been followed, doesn't require it.Also 3 U.K. pubs shut down one Somerset Yorkshire and I forget the last they and all customers attending have to isolate due to positive Covid tests.
A perfect example of the confusing guidance from this inept government.
How reality actually works: Someone you have been in close contact with report symptoms, as a precaution you start self isolating, they get tested and you stop self isolating if the test is negative.
Asymptomatic people are completely irrelevant unless they happen to get randomly tested.
RiseUp said:
So Victoria has shown they’ll continue this nonsense perpetually as these clusters will continue until a vaccine is available.
You’d have thought things were on the brink of breaking, but no, 9 cases in ICU.
What a total nightmare for the people in Victoria.
I don't think ICU is the trigger point, at this level of prevalence. Cases are the key leading metric. You’d have thought things were on the brink of breaking, but no, 9 cases in ICU.
What a total nightmare for the people in Victoria.
Edited by anonymous-user on Tuesday 7th July 09:03
RiseUp said:
So Victoria has shown they’ll continue this nonsense perpetually as these clusters will continue until a vaccine is available.
You’d have thought things were on the brink of breaking, but no, 9 cases in ICU.
What a total nightmare for the people in Victoria.
But other states have it well under control e.g. NSW which was the worst hit initially. You’d have thought things were on the brink of breaking, but no, 9 cases in ICU.
What a total nightmare for the people in Victoria.
There was a clear lapse in quarantine protocols in Victoria and it has managed to get a foothold again.
If people had being doing what they were supposed to then it would not have happened.
2Btoo said:
The Spruce Goose said:
Saw a story on local news a 47 it worker killed himself because lost job in probation and in limbo for support. Really sad an untold victim of this pandemic, wife and kid as well.
I've posted elsewhere on here that lockdown is making me depressed. I can associate with the feelings of the guy you saw on local news. Worryingly, I know I am not the only one. I know that a supplier of mine is really struggling with their mental health and at least one tenant is in a notably bad way (bad enough for me to gently but strongly suggest to her that she seeks help.) And I also know a good friend of mine is suffering similarly.
Stories like these will rarely reach the news. But they are one of the costs of lockdown, and it's a high cost to pay.
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/cautionary-t...
This was Sweden’s logic with having softer lockdowns, they thought the lack of cancer testing and economic damage and mental illness caused by lockdowns would lead to more death and problems for society in the long run that the virus itself.
Don’t suffer in silence though, you’re certainly not alone feeling like this. If you feel you need help there’s loads of thing available to you either free through the NHS or speaking to friends or a professional therapist. Often just talking about it to someone with empathy alone can make a massive difference,
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