Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)

[Hub]

With positivity rates over 20%, even 25% in some states how long will it take to burn out naturally though? It seems a very high number!

[turbobloke]

bodhi said:

Saweep said:

Alucidnation said:

frisbee said:

The average age for hospital admissions in America is 15 years younger than it was in the spring. The median age in Florida is currently 33. Clogging up hospital beds and taking a long time to die or recover.

I can easily see the UK following them.

No, no, no, it only kills old people.

The rolling 7 day average of deaths in Texas seems stuck at about 35 per day. Pretty much the same as Mid May.

Not exactly apocalypse is it?

Also, hospitals in Florida are nowhere near capacity despite all these apparent youngsters blocking the beds:

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1279641993...

In fact they seem to be running at similar levels to a month ago, bearing in mind elective surgeries have started up again in that time.

When there's no cause for alarm, it's alarming and something must be done to keep the sell going.

[frisbee]

turbobloke said:

bodhi said:

Saweep said:

Alucidnation said:

frisbee said:

The average age for hospital admissions in America is 15 years younger than it was in the spring. The median age in Florida is currently 33. Clogging up hospital beds and taking a long time to die or recover.

I can easily see the UK following them.

No, no, no, it only kills old people.

The rolling 7 day average of deaths in Texas seems stuck at about 35 per day. Pretty much the same as Mid May.

Not exactly apocalypse is it?

Also, hospitals in Florida are nowhere near capacity despite all these apparent youngsters blocking the beds:

https://twitter.com/AlexBerenson/status/1279641993...

In fact they seem to be running at similar levels to a month ago, bearing in mind elective surgeries have started up again in that time.

When there's no cause for alarm, it's alarming and something must be done to keep the sell going.

So you think 16% available ICU capacity is adequate then? Just under 1000 beds left when hospital admissions for COVID-19 are running at 350 a day and rising.

Interesting.

[JagLover]

Hub said:

With positivity rates over 20%, even 25% in some states how long will it take to burn out naturally though? It seems a very high number!

By positivity rates are you referring to the number of tests that come back showing positive?. Not the percentage of the population who have had it?

As for when it will burn out naturally. Well many US states didn't have a first wave and now this is it. So timeframe wise it will likely be the same as it was elsewhere.

[poo at Paul's]

Are the WHO covering their arses today saying that the ‘virus could be airborne’ ? I know this was discussed previously by medics and epidemiologists but if proven, surely a ‘new new normal’ will be required, particularly for indoor interactions, distancing etc.
Worrying.

[smashing]

frisbee said:

So you think 16% available ICU capacity is adequate then? Just under 1000 beds left when hospital admissions for COVID-19 are running at 350 a day and rising.

Interesting.

What was the average ICU capacity pre-covid?

[JagLover]

smashing said:

frisbee said:

So you think 16% available ICU capacity is adequate then? Just under 1000 beds left when hospital admissions for COVID-19 are running at 350 a day and rising.

Interesting.

What was the average ICU capacity pre-covid?

The ICU stat was debunked before.

Most ICUs run at 90%+ capacity in normal times. They can be expanded when required.

[smashing]

JagLover said:

smashing said:

frisbee said:

So you think 16% available ICU capacity is adequate then? Just under 1000 beds left when hospital admissions for COVID-19 are running at 350 a day and rising.

Interesting.

What was the average ICU capacity pre-covid?

The ICU stat was debunked before.

Most ICUs run at 90%+ capacity in normal times. They can be expanded when required.

I thought as much, thank you.

[anonymous-user]

So the WHO finally acknowledges in certain circumstances sars2 is can be airborne spread.

[JagLover]

The Spruce Goose said:

So the WHO finally acknowledges in certain circumstances sars2 is can be airborne spread.

I thought that had been established back in March?. Hence all the comments about it spreading via airflows from air conditioning.

[otolith]

JagLover said:

The Spruce Goose said:

So the WHO finally acknowledges in certain circumstances sars2 is can be airborne spread.

I thought that had been established back in March?. Hence all the comments about it spreading via airflows from air conditioning.

Position at the end of March;

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/...

[motco]

Is this an aerosol, and if not, would vapour particles carry viruses? Breath vapour such as this hangs about in the air for quite a while in some conditions, and even when not visible, it shows the extent to which breath carries.

[red_slr]

JagLover said:

Jader1973 said:

It was all but gone from the general population in Victoria - the majority of daily cases were in the quarantine hotels.

The root cause of this outbreak is the fkwit private security contractors staffing the hotels. Seems they were mixing with some of the detainees and not adhering to distancing procedures among themselves.

They then went to "large family gatherings" over a number of weekends and spread it through their family and friends.

So now it is back out of control.

Worth noting that every other state was using the army or police to manage the hotels but Victoria in their infinite wisdom chose not to. Now the army are in the hotels, and the police are having to manage the tower blocks.

It is a clusterfk.

Whatever the immediate cause if you have a population that you have kept isolated then all it takes is that first spark.

Just another example that this is for the long haul and being able to lock down earlier and keep yourself isolated (like NZ and Australia) isn't the end of the story.

I think the biggest problem that people dont understand is that it can take over a week for symptoms to show even as long as 2 weeks and lots of people are asymptomatic which means they can be passing it on without ever knowing they had it.

I am just hoping the virus burns itself out now with R values staying low enough that it happens.

[otolith]

motco said:

Is this an aerosol, and if not, would vapour particles carry viruses?

It's condensed water vapour. It left her lungs as a gas and condensed in the open air.

[RTB]

JagLover said:

The Spruce Goose said:

So the WHO finally acknowledges in certain circumstances sars2 is can be airborne spread.

I thought that had been established back in March?. Hence all the comments about it spreading via airflows from air conditioning.

Yep, pretty much every expert has maintained that airborne transmission is possible in certain circumstances.

This will then be interpreted by some as the disease is airborne in all circumstances and we can have a little panic until someone points out that the pattern of transmission in the community looks a lot more like a droplet/fomite spread than an airborne spread.

Interestingly one of the reasons that droplet spread is worse in winter than summer is due to the fact that cold air is dryer than warm air and so the droplet size remains much smaller for longer and can hang in the air for a greater length of time. In summer the air holds more water and so these tiny droplets rapidly increase in size and fall to the ground. Another reason why transmission in refrigerated workplaces is worse, the air in these places is very dry.

So in winter, the virus will probably behave more airborne-like than in the height of summer. Let's hope for a mild winter.

[JagLover]

anonymous said:

[redacted]

[Graveworm]

JagLover said:

smashing said:

frisbee said:

So you think 16% available ICU capacity is adequate then? Just under 1000 beds left when hospital admissions for COVID-19 are running at 350 a day and rising.

Interesting.

What was the average ICU capacity pre-covid?

The ICU stat was debunked before.

Most ICUs run at 90%+ capacity in normal times. They can be expanded when required.

That's great when dealing with events that don't increase exponentially. IF there is a a return to that, then 86 percent capacity becomes a 75% deficit in 2 or 3 days and 2 or 3 days later it's able to cope with less than 30 percent of demand. Even if action is taken to reduce transmission on day zero there is still 7-10 days of growth in ICU cases before the reduction gets down that far down the cycle.

Edited by Graveworm on Wednesday 8th July 10:55

[isaldiri]

otolith said:

JagLover said:

The Spruce Goose said:

So the WHO finally acknowledges in certain circumstances sars2 is can be airborne spread.

I thought that had been established back in March?. Hence all the comments about it spreading via airflows from air conditioning.

Position at the end of March;

https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/...

Well if it is airborne it isn't all that infectious then given fairly mild social distancing and avoiding crowded indoor spaces despite all the protests/beach stuff has still crashed case rates... those constantly promoting armageddon due to covid can't have it both ways.....

[grumbledoak]

Graveworm said:

That's great when dealing with events that don't increase exponentially. If there is a a return to that, then 86 percent capacity becomes a 75% deficit in 2 or 3 days and 2 or 3 days later it's able to cope with less than 30 percent of demand. Even if action is taken to reduce transmission on day zero there is still 7-10 days of growth in ICU cases before the reduction gets down that far down the cycle.

Transmission was never exponential. That was only ever an assumption in a computer model that proved to have zero predictive power. In real science it would now be considered falsified. Instead the word was used to scare a largely innumerate nation.

[Robertj21a]

RTB said:

Yep, pretty much every expert has maintained that airborne transmission is possible in certain circumstances.

This will then be interpreted by some as the disease is airborne in all circumstances and we can have a little panic until someone points out that the pattern of transmission in the community looks a lot more like a droplet/fomite spread than an airborne spread.

Interestingly one of the reasons that droplet spread is worse in winter than summer is due to the fact that cold air is dryer than warm air and so the droplet size remains much smaller for longer and can hang in the air for a greater length of time. In summer the air holds more water and so these tiny droplets rapidly increase in size and fall to the ground. Another reason why transmission in refrigerated workplaces is worse, the air in these places is very dry.

So in winter, the virus will probably behave more airborne-like than in the height of summer. Let's hope for a mild winter.

Interesting stuff, thank you.