Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)

[anonymous-user]

Vipers said:

Slight deviation, with the spike and lockdown in Victoria in NSW, this is what our son in law in Freshwater NSW sent me, for reasons unbeknown to me, the ozzies refer to those living in Victoria as "Mexicans"

Victoria used to be the poor southern part of Australia in the 80s and had a lot of economic migrants like Mexico in the USA

[vaud]

grumbledoak said:

It's 10% - 60%
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/flu-vaccine-eff...

That was 2017-2018?

[anonymous-user]

vaud said:

That was 2017-2018?

''Vaccine effectiveness varies year on year as the flu virus changes and is difficult to predict''

[RTB]

The Spruce Goose said:

''Vaccine effectiveness varies year on year as the flu virus changes and is difficult to predict''

It is, but on a population level, even 10% is a lot better than nothing.

[anonymous-user]

RTB said:

It is, but on a population level, even 10% is a lot better than nothing.

i wasn't arguing with it, just that it is not the silver bullet some might think it is. I am entitled to it free but choose not to.

[RTB]

The Spruce Goose said:

i wasn't arguing with it, just that it is not the silver bullet some might think it is. I am entitled to it free but choose not to.

No vaccine is. We get offered it at work for free and I always partake. No downsides so far, but it's up to the individual.

If/when a SARS-CoV2 vaccine comes out, will you sign up for that?

[anonymous-user]

RTB said:

No vaccine is.

i think Polio is, i'm sure there are others.

[Robertj21a]

RTB said:

The Spruce Goose said:

''Vaccine effectiveness varies year on year as the flu virus changes and is difficult to predict''

It is, but on a population level, even 10% is a lot better than nothing.

Too many avoid having it each year partly due to the after effects for a week or so each time
That, plus a potentially very low 10%, is not very encouraging.

[vaud]

The Spruce Goose said:

i think Polio is, i'm sure there are others.

Smallpox has been eradicated through vaccination. MMR programs may eventually eradicate those.

[RTB]

The Spruce Goose said:

i think Polio is, i'm sure there are others.

True, there are a few including polio that's close to 100% with multiple doses, although single-dose oral polio vaccination is only around 90%.

[2Btoo]

RTB said:

If/when a SARS-CoV2 vaccine comes out, will you sign up for that?

I will do, if it helps end the current situation. (Mid-40's, no health conditions, not overweight).

Any more insight on when the vaccine may be ready for use, anyone?

[rover 623gsi]

New positive cases and deaths
Thursday 2 July - 576 / 89
Thursday 25 June - 1,118 / 149
Thursday 18 June - 1,218 / 135
Thursday 11 June - 1,266 / 151
Thursday 4 June - 1,805 / 176

Friday 3 July - 544 / 137
Friday 26 June - 1,247 / 184
Friday 19 June - 1,216 / 173
Friday 12 June - 1,392 / 202
Friday 5 June - 1,491 / 357

Saturday 4 July - 624 / 67
Saturday 27 June - 804 / 100
Saturday 20 June - 1,170 / 128
Saturday 13 June - 1,287 / 181
Saturday 6 June - 1,406 / 204

Sunday 5 July - 516 / 22
Sunday 28 June - 814 / 36
Sunday 21 June - 1,103 / 43
Sunday 14 June - 1,368 / 36
Sunday 7 June - 1,198 / 77

Monday 6 July - 352 / 16
Monday 29 June - 735 / 25
Monday 22 June - 865 / 15
Monday 15 June - 874 / 38
Monday 8 June - 1,089 / 55

Tuesday 7 July - 581 / 155
Tuesday 30 June - 622 / 155
Tuesday 23 June - 832 / 280
Tuesday 16 June - 1,155 / 233
Tuesday 9 June - 1,573 / 286

Wednesday 8 July - 630 / 126
Wednesday 1 July - 571 / 176
Wednesday 24 June - 727 / 154
Wednesday 17 June - 911 / 184
Wednesday 10 June - 1,085 / 250

Compared to last Wednesday Infections up 59 deaths down 50

Edited by rover 623gsi on Wednesday 8th July 16:24

[motco]

rover 623gsi said:

New positive cases and deaths


Wednesday 8 July - 630 / 126
Wednesday 1 July - 352 / 176
Wednesday 24 June - 728 / 154
Wednesday 17 June - 911 / 184
Wednesday 10 June - 1,086 / 250

Infections up, deaths down

Is this the first sign of a spike? Infections will rise before deaths, clearly, and if the mortality ratio remains as it is, deaths will rise inevitably.

[rover 623gsi]

motco said:

rover 623gsi said:

New positive cases and deaths


Wednesday 8 July - 630 / 126
Wednesday 1 July - 352 / 176
Wednesday 24 June - 728 / 154
Wednesday 17 June - 911 / 184
Wednesday 10 June - 1,086 / 250

Infections up, deaths down

Is this the first sign of a spike? Infections will rise before deaths, clearly, and if the mortality ratio remains as it is, deaths will rise inevitably.

Sorry I made a mistake

Last Wednesday figures were 571 / 176

So, still an increase in infections but not as much as I first thought

[2Btoo]

rover 623gsi said:

Sorry I made a mistake

Last Wednesday figures were 571 / 176

So, still an increase in infections but not as much as I first thought

Sorry to get all picky about figures but those listed on Worldometers are 749 new cases and 176 new deaths (Link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/... ).

To make things more complex still, DHSC lists last Wednesday (1st) as being 829/176. (Here: https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1278328667899...

Where does your 571 come from?

(All this is subject to the usual caveats about numbers of tests done and so on).

[Vanden Saab]

2Btoo said:

rover 623gsi said:

Sorry I made a mistake

Last Wednesday figures were 571 / 176

So, still an increase in infections but not as much as I first thought

Sorry to get all picky about figures but those listed on Worldometers are 749 new cases and 176 new deaths (Link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/... ).

To make things more complex still, DHSC lists last Wednesday (1st) as being 829/176. (Here: https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1278328667899...

Where does your 571 come from?

(All this is subject to the usual caveats about numbers of tests done and so on).

England and Wales rather than UK I believe

[rover 623gsi]

All U.K.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.216853141.2...

I think the confusion might be because last week 30,302 previously reported cases were removed because they unearthed a loss of duplicates hence some of the daily totals have been retrospectively changed

[grumbledoak]

vaud said:

Smallpox has been eradicated through vaccination. MMR programs may eventually eradicate those.

The man who oversaw the eradication of smallpox wrote a summary of possible measures for pandemics. Written in 2006 for influenza, but well worth a read
https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi...

[vaud]

grumbledoak said:

The man who oversaw the eradication of smallpox wrote a summary of possible measures for pandemics. Written in 2006 for influenza, but well worth a read
https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi...

Thanks - added to my summer reading list.

[Graveworm]

grumbledoak said:

Graveworm said:

Have you seen the graphs for number of new cases, numbers admitted to hospitals, numbers admitted to ICU or numbers dying? There was exponential growth.
R0 of 2 is exponential growth. Even countries like Japan at one point exceeded that let alone the UK US at the peak.

As I said, "largely innumerate"

Not sure of your point or if you have one.

f(x) = a^x - QED