Coronavirus - the killer flu that will wipe us out? (Vol. 7)

[RATATTAK]

philv said:

Quite staggering that masks are not yet compulsory in pubs and shops in the uk.
They should be compulsory in all public places.

[pedant mode]How do you have a drink in a pub wearing a mask ?[/pedant mode]

[philv]

Zoobeef said:

philv said:

And it wasn't long ago that it was 1500 a day...only a few weeks.

Guilt tripping?

I was stating a fact.
No social distancing leads to more cases leads to more draths.
If someone acts irresponsibly they may well be contributing to the death of others.

Why the prickly response?

Social distancing means less medical treatments which means more deaths. Just so we're clear with what you're demanding.
That has been a fact of this lockdown and we'll be seeing the effects of your deaths for atleast the next 10 years.

Its ok, 90 year old Agatha with heart failure will be glad youve ruined her sons business and grandsons education so you can extend her life by a week.

Did i say anything about health care and social distancing? No,

I mention ed bbqs, beaches, house parties, mass protests etc.

Pissing it up at a rave without a mask etc does nothing re healthcare.

[philv]

RATATTAK said:

philv said:

Quite staggering that masks are not yet compulsory in pubs and shops in the uk.
They should be compulsory in all public places.

[pedant mode]How do you have a drink in a pub wearing a mask ?[/pedant mode]

Mask inside to order, drink outside.

Or use a bent straw under the mask.

[Zoobeef]

philv said:

Pissing it up at a rave without a mask etc does nothing re healthcare.

Tell that to the youths that have committed suicide during lockdown.

[philv]

Zoobeef said:

philv said:

Pissing it up at a rave without a mask etc does nothing re healthcare.

Tell that to the youths that have committed suicide during lockdown.

ffs.

[OzzyR1]

philv said:

Today we announced 820 new cases.
It has been 500-900 for about a week.
It had been trendsng down.

But going by other countries i thought we would be closer to a few hundred next week,
I don't think it will get tnere.

You can't have large numbers of people not social distancing and expect the virus to go away.

We need to get it well down in preparation for the colder months.


To remember is that the real number of cases is likely 5 times that of the confirmed figure.
So approx 4000 today.
That equates to people dying in a few weeks.

Those not social distancing and not giving a toss are responsible for people dying down the line.

Edited by philv on Saturday 11th July 23:10

All likelihood that Covid will never "go away", might be another thing that we just have to deal with like influenza or cancer, both of which cut short the lives of the unfortunate individuals who are affected.

[philv]

OzzyR1 said:

philv said:

Today we announced 820 new cases.
It has been 500-900 for about a week.
It had been trendsng down.

But going by other countries i thought we would be closer to a few hundred next week,
I don't think it will get tnere.

You can't have large numbers of people not social distancing and expect the virus to go away.

We need to get it well down in preparation for the colder months.


To remember is that the real number of cases is likely 5 times that of the confirmed figure.
So approx 4000 today.
That equates to people dying in a few weeks.

Those not social distancing and not giving a toss are responsible for people dying down the line.

Edited by philv on Saturday 11th July 23:10

All likelihood that Covid will never "go away", might be another thing that we just have to deal with like influenza or cancer, both of which cut short the lives of the unfortunate individuals who are affected.

Hopefully not.
Covid has the potential to quickly infect huge numbers of people.
Much more so than typical flu.

I think we won't truly start getting to grips with it until all large countries have gone through their first wave, possibly 2nd wave, and have learnt by experience how to handle it.

[Biker 1]

Holy st this thread is getting depressing!
Lighten up

[poo at Paul's]

Zoobeef said:

We are no where near 1000 cases most days and we never did worse than 1000 deaths a day. Keep up the panic ridden bullst though.

820 today after a couple of days of 500s and 600s. And 142 deaths from it.

But Before you call bullst on it, look at the rolling weekly averages. It’s got quite stubborn around the 800 to 1000 cases per day level, and prior to that was stubborn at 1000 to 1200 level.
Even the official statiticans are saying that the rate of decrease trend is slowing.
I’m noT spreading panic and bullst, i am following the numbers. We saw large drops in new Infection cases, despite increasing testing, from 5000 odd to 1500 odd a day, Over a really short time, like a two to three weeks then it seemed to stall at 1500 odd a day. It took a fair few weeks to get to 1000 to 1200 odd, and it’s been hovering around 800 to 1000 odd a day for some time too. I’d feel much happier if it was consistently 250 cases a day at the moment, but it’s not. And we may never get there at all.

Places that have had the virus under control previously we’re getting infections down to a few hundred, or in the tens a lot quicker, we have seemingly hit a bit of a plateau, the graphs show it, and whist other countries too have plateaued, we seem to have plateaued at a higher level!

So I am concerned for UK, but the US trends should worry even the most optimistic Brit. I work for a uk arm of a US company, and what we are hearing from them is not good. Most states did what we are doing over the last few weeks back in early to mid May. I hope in 6 weeks we are not following their trends, but I think it’s dangerous to dismiss it out of hand.

In the USA, it is true that they are doing 6 or 7 times the daily testing that we are, but they’re now finding case numbers 50 times what we are! Some states with testing showing near 20 percent Of those tested being positive, WHO is using 5 percent as a benchmark for it being under control.
I’m not sure how many daily tests we are doing, but we may be at about 1% of positive results.

Before people get too blasé about all this and think it’s gone away, or is just a bit of flu and it’s hard to catch, remember the first UK national to contract it. Steven Walsh. Picks it up at conference in Far East, and in 4 days skiing, he passes it to 10 other people, several of whom are doctors / health professionals that should be a bit more hygienic that your average joe, due to their training. And these were people in his and a neighbouring ski chalet.
This suggests to me, merely a lay person, that whilst there’s still not many people out there with it, (they don’t publish recovered case numbers from what I have seen,) it is rather infectious. So the fewer new infections per day, is a good sign that more are recovering and dying per day, than contracting it. But with R0 hovering around 1 as it is in many areas of UK, there is a real chance that a plateau could become a new spike, as is happening in USA.

[konark]

philv said:

Quite staggering that masks are not yet compulsory in pubs and shops in the uk.
They should be compulsory in all public places.

I was in Morrisons on Saturday and absolutely no-one was wearing a mask.

One worrying trend that I did notice is that the local pub( no masks there either) has put beer prices up 25%. I know they've had no income for 4 months and they've had to buy lots of screens and stuff but many of their customers will have lost money too. Some will have been buying their beer from the supermarket and finding the pub's 'premium lager' at £5 a pint is actually less than £1.50 a pint there.

[poo at Paul's]

Zoobeef said:

Social distancing means less medical treatments which means more deaths. Just so we're clear with what you're demanding.
That has been a fact of this lockdown and we'll be seeing the effects of your deaths for atleast the next 10 years.

Its ok, 90 year old Agatha with heart failure will be glad youve ruined her sons business and grandsons education so you can extend her life by a week.

My word, I think you need to move to the good old US of A you’d fit right in.

There’s a long game going on here. You think you’re immune to it, fancy your chances, and you don’t care about Aunt Agatha. Tell me, how long do you fancy your chances against this virus? If you get it next week, will you beat it? What about if you catch it again in October........then in January, what if you catch it 15 times over the next 5 years?
You’re assuming immunity and there’s just no evidence of that yet. You’re assuming it will go away, or someone who wears a mask all the time to protect themselves and others will find a vaccine, (yes, them people you’re relying on for your future wear masks and know how dangerous this virus is).
You think you know it all, you don’t, and neither do the scientists and politicians. To all intents and purposes, this disease didn’t exist 6 months ago. It’s killed 580k people now, 500k odd in the last 4 months.
But yeah, don’t worry, it’s only 90 year old Aunties who die.......except it isn’t is it? And you don’t have to die from this for it to fk your up royally. Delirium, neurological issues, kidney issues, liver, lungs of course, I know a chap who’s not to it now, but went from swimming couple of miles very day, to not being able to walk up his stairs after 14 weeks. He’s 45, Two kids, 8 and 10. He’s fked.
Have a read of this, he’s not the only one.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/53193835

This is a new disease and virus. We don’t know the full extent of it, how it works, how transmitted, long term issues, long term effects. And you bring up sound bite bullst about ‘kids committing suicide’ and businesses failing. The fact is, more people are losing their lives to Covid that are killing themselves due to the effects of lockdown. You know it, we all know it. Businesses are failing. Yes, they are. The same as they’ve been failing in recent recessions and events. But we as tax payers rightly or wrongly have mitigated it as much as possible. You’re a billy big balls who goes around saying you won’t wear a mask, you don’t give a flying fk about the virus and wether you pass it to someone who dies from it.....and you’re not alone, there’s stupid bigots everywhere. How many people have you heard an read from on here saying they ‘don’t give a st about businesses failing, Or about mental health issues And suicide? Well no one, from what I can see.
You see the sensible, rational people see that this is a ststorm and there’s lots of losers and few gainers in all this. We’re all experiencing pain to some degree or another, and will do for tens of years to come.
You spout about more pope, dying from not going to nhs appointments, again, this is not true. The excess deaths over the lockdown period is 64k. 45k are confirmed Covid deaths. About 9500 more have Covid listed on the death certificate as possible contributory cause.
So that leaves what 9k or so ‘Unexplained’ excess deaths, about a fifth of the confirmed Covid ones. If you attribute ALL of the, to people not going to docs or hospital, tell me, without the lockdown, an event that despite which, several weeks in, we were seeing over 1000 Covid deaths per day, how many Covid deaths would we have had.....? 10k more, 50k more...? Who knows, but it sure was well would not have been less that we had.
You’re one of the people that look at the effect of the lockdown and draconian measures we were subjected to, and use the health stats that come out of that and use it as a reasoning that it was not needed!
Do us all a favour, go read up a bit about the effects of Covid on non octogenarians, go speak to or read some health professionals’ experiences of it all, the long term effects on those surviving, economic impact of fit healthy people in their 30s being off Work for 12 weeks plus with this, and them come back and tell us how much you fancy your chances, this year, next year, 10 years from now.
One thing is for sure, if you get a vaccine and it works on you, so you can go about your business with impunity, you can thank someone who isn’t a blasé billy big balls Pratt about it, someone who will and does wear a mask to protect them and others, and someone who really does ‘give a fk’ about it all unlike you.

But then deep down you know that. Let’s hope they keep doing their jobs and don’t get bored and want to start living life exactly like they did 6 months ago, otherwise we are all completely fked.

[DukeDickson]

poo at Paul's said:

Zoobeef said:

Social distancing means less medical treatments which means more deaths. Just so we're clear with what you're demanding.
That has been a fact of this lockdown and we'll be seeing the effects of your deaths for atleast the next 10 years.

Its ok, 90 year old Agatha with heart failure will be glad youve ruined her sons business and grandsons education so you can extend her life by a week.

My word, I think you need to move to the good old US of A you’d fit right in.

There’s a long game going on here. You think you’re immune to it, fancy your chances, and you don’t care about Aunt Agatha. Tell me, how long do you fancy your chances against this virus? If you get it next week, will you beat it? What about if you catch it again in October........then in January, what if you catch it 15 times over the next 5 years?
You’re assuming immunity and there’s just no evidence of that yet. You’re assuming it will go away, or someone who wears a mask all the time to protect themselves and others will find a vaccine, (yes, them people you’re relying on for your future wear masks and know how dangerous this virus is).
You think you know it all, you don’t, and neither do the scientists and politicians. To all intents and purposes, this disease didn’t exist 6 months ago. It’s killed 580k people now, 500k odd in the last 4 months.
But yeah, don’t worry, it’s only 90 year old Aunties who die.......except it isn’t is it? And you don’t have to die from this for it to fk your up royally. Delirium, neurological issues, kidney issues, liver, lungs of course, I know a chap who’s not to it now, but went from swimming couple of miles very day, to not being able to walk up his stairs after 14 weeks. He’s 45, Two kids, 8 and 10. He’s fked.
Have a read of this, he’s not the only one.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/53193835

This is a new disease and virus. We don’t know the full extent of it, how it works, how transmitted, long term issues, long term effects. And you bring up sound bite bullst about ‘kids committing suicide’ and businesses failing. The fact is, more people are losing their lives to Covid that are killing themselves due to the effects of lockdown. You know it, we all know it. Businesses are failing. Yes, they are. The same as they’ve been failing in recent recessions and events. But we as tax payers rightly or wrongly have mitigated it as much as possible. You’re a billy big balls who goes around saying you won’t wear a mask, you don’t give a flying fk about the virus and wether you pass it to someone who dies from it.....and you’re not alone, there’s stupid bigots everywhere. How many people have you heard an read from on here saying they ‘don’t give a st about businesses failing, Or about mental health issues And suicide? Well no one, from what I can see.
You see the sensible, rational people see that this is a ststorm and there’s lots of losers and few gainers in all this. We’re all experiencing pain to some degree or another, and will do for tens of years to come.
You spout about more pope, dying from not going to nhs appointments, again, this is not true. The excess deaths over the lockdown period is 64k. 45k are confirmed Covid deaths. About 9500 more have Covid listed on the death certificate as possible contributory cause.
So that leaves what 9k or so ‘Unexplained’ excess deaths, about a fifth of the confirmed Covid ones. If you attribute ALL of the, to people not going to docs or hospital, tell me, without the lockdown, an event that despite which, several weeks in, we were seeing over 1000 Covid deaths per day, how many Covid deaths would we have had.....? 10k more, 50k more...? Who knows, but it sure was well would not have been less that we had.
You’re one of the people that look at the effect of the lockdown and draconian measures we were subjected to, and use the health stats that come out of that and use it as a reasoning that it was not needed!
Do us all a favour, go read up a bit about the effects of Covid on non octogenarians, go speak to or read some health professionals’ experiences of it all, the long term effects on those surviving, economic impact of fit healthy people in their 30s being off Work for 12 weeks plus with this, and them come back and tell us how much you fancy your chances, this year, next year, 10 years from now.
One thing is for sure, if you get a vaccine and it works on you, so you can go about your business with impunity, you can thank someone who isn’t a blasé billy big balls Pratt about it, someone who will and does wear a mask to protect them and others, and someone who really does ‘give a fk’ about it all unlike you.

But then deep down you know that. Let’s hope they keep doing their jobs and don’t get bored and want to start living life exactly like they did 6 months ago, otherwise we are all completely fked.

You really should change to Kack at Karen's.

How would you react if this was remotely as dangerous as something like Spanish Flu? Or even the various other similar, but less dangerous wannabes that we
have seen in recent times?

If it was the Spanish Flu equivalent, we've only got about 49.5m+ deaths to go in the next 18 months.

This is new, very wrong for old and a subset of not old, but of very little risk for a very large number of people.

[JagLover]

philv said:

You can't have large numbers of people not social distancing and expect the virus to go away.

We need to get it well down in preparation for the colder months.

Or we need people to catch it now, before cold weather sets in.

Other viewpoints are available you see.

[MOTORVATOR]

JagLover said:

philv said:

You can't have large numbers of people not social distancing and expect the virus to go away.

We need to get it well down in preparation for the colder months.

Or we need people to catch it now, before cold weather sets in.

Other viewpoints are available you see.

Covid is the best protection for the winter months. Nobody has died of Pneumonia for months now.

[grumbledoak]

poo at Paul's said:

I’m noT spreading panic and bullst, i am following the numbers.

But you don't seem to understand them and they are scaring you. You are then quite obviously relishing telling others to be afraid.

The number of cases we see is largely dictated by how many tests we perform and on who we perform them. The rise and the plateau we see here is mostly the limit of how fast we can test. The true number of infections is some number way above that. That's all we know really.

If you want hard facts you should look at the numbers of hospitalizations, or deaths. These are more valid.

The virus is indeed very infectious. I believe a great many of us have already had it. If I haven't already, I hope I get it in the summer months.

[Robertj21a]

grumbledoak said:

But you don't seem to understand them and they are scaring you. You are then quite obviously relishing telling others to be afraid.

The number of cases we see is largely dictated by how many tests we perform and on who we perform them. The rise and the plateau we see here is mostly the limit of how fast we can test. The true number of infections is some number way above that. That's all we know really.

If you want hard facts you should look at the numbers of hospitalizations, or deaths. These are more valid.

The virus is indeed very infectious. I believe a great many of us have already had it. If I haven't already, I hope I get it in the summer months.

Are you assuming that it will then give you immunity ?

[JagLover]

Robertj21a said:

grumbledoak said:

But you don't seem to understand them and they are scaring you. You are then quite obviously relishing telling others to be afraid.

The number of cases we see is largely dictated by how many tests we perform and on who we perform them. The rise and the plateau we see here is mostly the limit of how fast we can test. The true number of infections is some number way above that. That's all we know really.

If you want hard facts you should look at the numbers of hospitalizations, or deaths. These are more valid.

The virus is indeed very infectious. I believe a great many of us have already had it. If I haven't already, I hope I get it in the summer months.

Are you assuming that it will then give you immunity ?

New illness so still unknown.

Best guess would be a fair amount of protection for a few years and then a declining immune response after that.

BSImmunology said:

It is still early days when it comes to understanding immunity for COVID-19. We know that people exposed to the related virus SARS1 produced antibodies for at least two years after infection (and in some cases for up to 12 years), but those antibodies became less effective over time

It would be a very strange virus if you had NO protection whatsoever from future infection after your immune system had successfully fought it off.

How do you think they can develop a succesful vaccine if you have no immune response?

[rover 623gsi]

The figures yesterday were disappointing but it looks like there was a lot of backdating.... this is the NHS actual numbers from the last couple of day. It looks as though no deaths as yet reported from hospitals yesterday ( this is only hospital deaths )

NHS England have announced 38 (11 dates) COVID-19 deaths today. This is down from 39 (14 dates) last Saturday.

The number of deaths announced for yesterday is 0 - this number is likely to change.

So the big jump is deaths in the community (usually care homes) and these often have a lag in reporting.

As for the rise in infections compared to the previous Saturday this could be a result of more testing. The increase does appear to be mainly coming from the pillar two tests. It could also be that the overall number is being skewed by very localised spikes. I think if we saw three or four days of increases then it would be a concern but for now the overall trend down.

Edited by rover 623gsi on Sunday 12th July 08:50

Edited by rover 623gsi on Sunday 12th July 09:27

[Zoobeef]

poo at Paul's said:

My word, I think you need to move to the good old US of A you’d fit right in.

There’s a long game going on here. You think you’re immune to it, fancy your chances, and you don’t care about Aunt Agatha. Tell me, how long do you fancy your chances against this virus? If you get it next week, will you beat it? What about if you catch it again in October........then in January, what if you catch it 15 times over the next 5 years?
You’re assuming immunity and there’s just no evidence of that yet. You’re assuming it will go away, or someone who wears a mask all the time to protect themselves and others will find a vaccine, (yes, them people you’re relying on for your future wear masks and know how dangerous this virus is).
You think you know it all, you don’t, and neither do the scientists and politicians. To all intents and purposes, this disease didn’t exist 6 months ago. It’s killed 580k people now, 500k odd in the last 4 months.
But yeah, don’t worry, it’s only 90 year old Aunties who die.......except it isn’t is it? And you don’t have to die from this for it to fk your up royally. Delirium, neurological issues, kidney issues, liver, lungs of course, I know a chap who’s not to it now, but went from swimming couple of miles very day, to not being able to walk up his stairs after 14 weeks. He’s 45, Two kids, 8 and 10. He’s fked.
Have a read of this, he’s not the only one.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/53193835

This is a new disease and virus. We don’t know the full extent of it, how it works, how transmitted, long term issues, long term effects. And you bring up sound bite bullst about ‘kids committing suicide’ and businesses failing. The fact is, more people are losing their lives to Covid that are killing themselves due to the effects of lockdown. You know it, we all know it. Businesses are failing. Yes, they are. The same as they’ve been failing in recent recessions and events. But we as tax payers rightly or wrongly have mitigated it as much as possible. You’re a billy big balls who goes around saying you won’t wear a mask, you don’t give a flying fk about the virus and wether you pass it to someone who dies from it.....and you’re not alone, there’s stupid bigots everywhere. How many people have you heard an read from on here saying they ‘don’t give a st about businesses failing, Or about mental health issues And suicide? Well no one, from what I can see.
You see the sensible, rational people see that this is a ststorm and there’s lots of losers and few gainers in all this. We’re all experiencing pain to some degree or another, and will do for tens of years to come.
You spout about more pope, dying from not going to nhs appointments, again, this is not true. The excess deaths over the lockdown period is 64k. 45k are confirmed Covid deaths. About 9500 more have Covid listed on the death certificate as possible contributory cause.
So that leaves what 9k or so ‘Unexplained’ excess deaths, about a fifth of the confirmed Covid ones. If you attribute ALL of the, to people not going to docs or hospital, tell me, without the lockdown, an event that despite which, several weeks in, we were seeing over 1000 Covid deaths per day, how many Covid deaths would we have had.....? 10k more, 50k more...? Who knows, but it sure was well would not have been less that we had.
You’re one of the people that look at the effect of the lockdown and draconian measures we were subjected to, and use the health stats that come out of that and use it as a reasoning that it was not needed!
Do us all a favour, go read up a bit about the effects of Covid on non octogenarians, go speak to or read some health professionals’ experiences of it all, the long term effects on those surviving, economic impact of fit healthy people in their 30s being off Work for 12 weeks plus with this, and them come back and tell us how much you fancy your chances, this year, next year, 10 years from now.
One thing is for sure, if you get a vaccine and it works on you, so you can go about your business with impunity, you can thank someone who isn’t a blasé billy big balls Pratt about it, someone who will and does wear a mask to protect them and others, and someone who really does ‘give a fk’ about it all unlike you.

But then deep down you know that. Let’s hope they keep doing their jobs and don’t get bored and want to start living life exactly like they did 6 months ago, otherwise we are all completely fked.

Oh the drama! Love a good soap opera.

You do realise the in the whole world in the last 6 months there hasn't been a single case of someone being infected twice.
So I think me being the one to get it 2 or 3 times this year is pretty unrealistic.
I have 0 fear of this virus unlike you, i can see the numbers and the threat is tiny. I'm racing cars this weekend, probably has a greater danger.

[2Btoo]

rover 623gsi said:

The figures yesterday were disappointing but it looks like there was a lot of backdating.... this is the NHS actual numbers from the last couple of day. It looks as though no deaths as yet reported from hospitals yesterday ( this is only hospital deaths )

[i{NHS England have announced 38 (11 dates) COVID-19 deaths today. This is down from 39 (14 dates) last Saturday. [/i]

The number of deaths announced for yesterday is 0 - this number is likely to change.

So the big jump is deaths in the community (usually care homes) and these often have a lag in reporting.

As for the rise in infections compared to the previous Saturday this could be a result of more testing. The increase does appear to be mainly coming from the pillar two tests. It could also be that the overall number is being skewed by very localised spikes. I think if we saw three or four days of increases then it would be a concern but for now the overall trend down.

Edited by rover 623gsi on Sunday 12th July 08:50

Rover,

I hope you are right and thanks for the update. I watch the numbers closely (more closely than I should) and follow up posts like this one are very helpful.